1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Manganese silicon, Ferrosilicon, Logs [1] - **Bearish**: Zinc, Pulp [1] - **Neutral**: Stock index, Treasury bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Precious metals, Platinum and palladium, Industrial silicon, Polycrystalline silicon, Lithium carbonate, Rebar, Hot rolled coil, Iron ore, Glass, Soda ash, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybeans, Diesel, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short fiber, Methanol, PP, PVC, Caustic soda, LPG, Container shipping on the Europe route [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The external shocks on the stock index remain, but there is a short - term rebound opportunity due to changes in the US attitude and the possible opening of the Strait of Hormuz. In the long - term, the stock index is still optimistic. [1] - Treasury bonds are affected by multiple factors and will oscillate. [1] - Metal prices are affected by the complex situation in the Middle East, with different trends for each metal. For example, copper and aluminum prices oscillate, while zinc is bearish, and nickel and stainless steel are high - level oscillating. [1] - The prices of precious metals and platinum - palladium oscillate due to the shift of market trading narrative and the uncertain situation in the Middle East. [1] - The prices of industrial products such as steel, iron ore, and non - ferrous metals are affected by supply - demand relationships, cost, and geopolitical factors. [1] - The prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as production, consumption, and policies. For example, cotton prices are expected to rise in the long - term, while sugar prices have limited fluctuations. [1] - Energy and chemical product prices are significantly affected by the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with some products facing supply shortages and price fluctuations. [1] - The container shipping on the Europe route is affected by war sentiment and shipping company strategies. [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - **Stock index**: External shocks remain, but there is a short - term rebound opportunity. In the long - term, it is still optimistic. [1] - **Treasury bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors. [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintains an oscillating trend due to the complex situation in the Middle East. [1] - **Aluminum**: Price fluctuations intensify, and there are low - buying opportunities. [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the upward space is limited due to the oversupply pattern. [1] - **Zinc**: Bearish due to weak fundamentals, and the reversal depends on European natural gas prices. [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level, affected by policies and macro - emotions. Short - term low - buying is recommended. [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillates, and short - term low - buying opportunities should be focused on. [1] - **Tin**: The price is expected to be strong in the short - term due to potential production impacts. [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Prices may oscillate in the short - term due to the upgrading of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Prices are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear. [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, demand is weak, and the inventory is being reduced. [1] - **Polycrystalline silicon**: It is recommended to wait and see. [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Affected by factors such as demand and raw material disturbances. [1] Industrial products - **Rebar**: The price is mainly supported by cost, and it is treated as an oscillating market. [1] - **Hot rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong, and it is in the de - stocking cycle. It is recommended to operate with an oscillating idea and consider positive arbitrage. [1] - **Iron ore**: The price oscillates at a high level, and it is recommended to operate within a range. [1] - **Manganese silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Bullish due to short - term supply - demand growth and cost support. [1] - **Glass and Soda ash**: Oscillate, and soda ash follows the trend of glass. [1] - **Coking coal**: There is a risk of a sharp rise and fall, and attention should be paid to the development of the war. [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, Rapeseed oil**: The far - month prices are expected to rise due to high oil prices and increased quotas. [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the inventory is tightening, and domestic prices are expected to rise in the long - term. [1] - **Sugar**: The supply is abundant, and the price has limited fluctuations. [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term, but the decline range is limited. [1] - **Soybeans**: It is recommended to wait for the callback to lay out long positions in the far - month contracts. [1] - **Pulp**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term. [1] - **Logs**: Bullish due to the rise in the external market price. [1] Energy and chemical products - **Crude oil, Fuel oil**: Prices are affected by the Middle East situation, with supply concerns and negotiation information disturbances. [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports is relatively weak, and it is affected by the price of crude oil. [1] - **BR rubber**: The price has an upward space, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. [1] - **PTA**: The Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks. [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: The price rises due to raw material shortages. [1] - **Short fiber**: The price fluctuates with the cost. [1] - **Methanol**: The export is affected, but the domestic supply is abundant. [1] - **PP, PVC, Caustic soda**: Affected by the geopolitical situation and supply - demand fundamentals. [1] - **LPG**: The price is affected by multiple factors, with internal and external market differentiation. [1] Others - **Container shipping on the Europe route**: Affected by war sentiment and shipping company strategies, with a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season. [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - External shocks still exist, and stock index is expected to fluctuate. Trump's delay of the ultimatum to Iran provides a short - term respite for the capital market, increasing the probability of a short - term rebound in the stock index [1]. - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, expectations of monetary policy easing, supply pressure from fiscal stimulus, and profit - taking behavior in the trading market lead to the volatile operation of treasury bonds [1]. - The complex Middle East situation makes it difficult for market risk appetite to rise rapidly, and copper and aluminum prices face downward pressure. Alumina prices are supported but the upside is limited due to oversupply [1]. - Zinc and tin prices rebound due to improved market sentiment, but investors are advised to wait and see because of high uncertainty in the Middle East situation [1]. - Nickel prices may fluctuate widely due to supply tightness and macro - emotional volatility. Stainless steel futures are expected to run strongly with short - term operations recommended [1]. - Precious metal prices stop falling and fluctuate. In the short term, they may fluctuate due to the unresolved Middle East situation [1]. - Industrial silicon has supply resumption, weak demand, and inventory reduction; polysilicon has strong energy - storage demand, weak power demand, and battery rush for exports [1]. - Steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils are in the de - stocking cycle. Their prices are mainly affected by cost support and are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Iron ore, ferrosilicon, and other products have weak short - term supply and demand, but are supported by geopolitical conflicts and costs [1]. - Glass and soda ash prices are affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts and long - term supply - demand relationships [1]. - Coking coal and coke may have a short - term rally, but investors need to pay attention to the development of the war and control risks [1]. - Oils may experience a short - term correction after a sharp rise, but the long - term view is bullish [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term due to reduced planting expectations and demand recovery; sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Grains such as corn and soybeans are expected to have short - term fluctuations, and investors can wait for opportunities to go long on soybeans [1]. - Pulp futures are expected to be weak in the short term [1]. - Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Hog prices are expected to fluctuate as production capacity needs further release [1]. - Energy products such as fuel oil, asphalt, and rubber are affected by geopolitical factors and supply - demand relationships [1]. - Chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene face supply shortages due to geopolitical conflicts [1]. - Fertilizers such as urea and methanol are affected by geopolitical factors and domestic supply - demand situations [1]. - Plastics such as PE, PVC, and LPG are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [1]. - The shipping market is affected by war emotions and has a strong willingness to stop falling and raise prices [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Financial - Stock Index: External shocks still exist, and the stock index is expected to fluctuate. Trump's delay of the ultimatum to Iran provides a short - term respite, increasing the probability of a short - term rebound [1]. - Treasury Bonds: Multiple factors lead to the volatile operation of treasury bonds [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The complex Middle East situation makes it difficult for market risk appetite to rise rapidly, and copper prices have a risk of decline [1]. - Aluminum: The Middle East situation has not cooled down, and aluminum prices are under short - term pressure [1]. - Alumina: Rising energy prices, freight rates, and potential export quotas in Guinea support prices, but the oversupply pattern limits the upside [1]. - Zinc: Zinc prices rebound due to improved market sentiment, but investors are advised to wait and see because of high uncertainty in the Middle East situation [1]. - Nickel: Nickel prices may fluctuate widely due to supply tightness and macro - emotional volatility. Short - term operations are recommended [1]. - Stainless Steel: Stainless steel futures are expected to run strongly with short - term operations recommended [1]. - Tin: Tin prices rebound due to improved market sentiment, but investors are advised to wait and see because of high uncertainty in the Middle East situation [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: Precious metal prices stop falling and fluctuate. In the short term, they may fluctuate due to the unresolved Middle East situation [1]. - Platinum and Palladium: Prices may stop falling and stabilize in the short term, but they may still fluctuate due to the Middle East situation [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Supply resumes, demand is weak, and inventory is reduced [1]. - Polysilicon: Energy - storage demand is strong, power demand is weak, and there is a battery rush for exports [1]. Black Metals - Rebar: In the de - stocking cycle, demand is average, and prices are mainly supported by cost and valuation [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coils: In the de - stocking cycle, inventory is high, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Positive arbitrage positions can be gradually entered [1]. - Iron Ore: Short - term supply and demand are weak, but prices are supported by geopolitical conflicts and costs [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Short - term supply and demand are weak, but prices are supported by geopolitical conflicts and costs [1]. - Glass: Prices are affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts and long - term supply - demand relationships [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass prices, affected by short - term geopolitical conflicts and long - term supply - demand relationships [1]. - Coking Coal: May have a short - term rally, but investors need to pay attention to the development of the war and control risks [1]. - Coke: Similar to coking coal [1]. Agricultural Products - Oils: May experience a short - term correction after a sharp rise, but the long - term view is bullish [1]. - Cotton: International cotton inventory is expected to tighten, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term [1]. - Sugar: Global sugar supply is abundant, and domestic sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Grains: Corn prices may have a short - term correction, and soybean investors can wait for opportunities to go long [1]. - Pulp: Futures are expected to be weak in the short term [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by geopolitical factors, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [1]. - Fuel Oil: Affected by the Middle East situation, market sentiment is positive, and risk appetite is rising [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by the cost of crude oil, the impact is relatively weak in the energy sector [1]. - Rubber: Supported by cost, commodity market sentiment is positive, and the futures - spot price difference is large [1]. - BR Rubber: Prices rise due to supply shortages, and the downstream negative feedback is gradually realized [1]. - PTA: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the polyester industry chain may face production decline [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Affected by the shortage of raw materials, prices rise [1]. - Short - Fibre: Prices follow cost fluctuations [1]. - Styrene: Supply is tight, and non - integrated producers' profits are inverted [1]. - Urea: Export sentiment eases, and prices are supported by cost [1]. - Methanol: Affected by the Iranian situation, domestic supply is abundant [1]. - PE: Affected by geopolitical factors, the fundamentals are weak [1]. - PVC: Future expectations are optimistic due to capacity reduction [1]. - LPG: The price is affected by geopolitical factors, and there is a differentiation between the domestic and international markets [1]. Shipping - Container Shipping on European Routes: Affected by war emotions, there is a strong willingness to stop falling and raise prices [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global capital market liquidity continues to be impacted, and domestic small and medium - cap stocks are dragged down. The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and may restart the upward pattern in the future with the easing of external inflation pressure and the recovery of market risk appetite [1]. - Multiple factors such as housing demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure brought by fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the volatile operation of treasury bonds [1]. - Due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of copper, aluminum, and other non - ferrous metals are under pressure, while the price of alumina may fluctuate due to the consideration of export quotas in Guinea. Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and their prices are under pressure. Platinum and palladium prices are also under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side resumes production, but demand is weak and inventory is being depleted. For lithium carbonate, there are factors such as strong energy storage demand, weak power demand, and strong capital risk - aversion sentiment, and the price is in shock [1]. - For black metals, most varieties such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - For agricultural products, palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term. Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - For energy and chemical futures, due to the tense situation in the Middle East, the prices of many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected, and their prices show different trends [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to continue the shock pattern, and it is recommended to build long positions in the medium and long term by combining the discount advantage of stock index futures and control positions [1]. - Treasury bonds oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may decline, aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices may fluctuate. Zinc and tin prices are affected by the overall sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices may oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious metals are affected by the energy crisis and interest - rate hike trading, and platinum and palladium prices are under pressure in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Industrial silicon has issues of supply - side resumption and weak demand; lithium carbonate has multiple influencing factors and is in shock [1]. Black Metals - Rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, glass, and other varieties are in shock, and policies and cost support have an impact on prices [1]. - Coke and coking coal are affected by geopolitical factors, and it is necessary to pay attention to geopolitical changes [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil is bullish, soybean oil is expected to rise following, and rapeseed oil has potential bullish factors in the short term [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium and long term, and sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn futures are expected to continue the high - level shock pattern, and it is necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [1]. - It is recommended to wait for callbacks to layout long positions in the far - month contracts of soybean meal [1]. - Pulp futures are in a weak fundamental situation and are in shock in a certain price range [1]. - Log futures have large fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Many varieties such as PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, and their prices show different trends [1]. - Urea has limited upward space and cost - side support; methanol has issues of Iranian imports and high domestic inventory [1]. - PE, PP, and PVC are affected by geopolitical factors, and PVC has a relatively optimistic future expectation [1]. - Caustic soda has a weak fundamental situation, and the market sentiment has cooled [1]. - LPG has a complex situation with factors such as price premiums, demand, and inventory, and there is a differentiation between internal and external markets [1]. - For container shipping on the European line, price increases are generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Palm oil, PE, PP, PVC, PG [1] - Bearish: None - Neutral: Index, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Precious metals, Platinum and palladium, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium carbonate, Rebar, Hot rolled coil, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Ferrosilicon, Bonds, Soda ash, Coking coal, Coke, Soybean oil, Rapeseed oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean meal, Pulp, Logs, Live pigs, Fuel oil, Asphalt, BR rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Styrene, Urea, Methanol [1] Core Views - The stock index is expected to consolidate and resume its upward trend as external geopolitical tensions ease and market risk appetite recovers. Long positions can be considered in the medium to long term by taking advantage of the discount of stock index futures [1]. - The bond market is oscillating under the influence of multiple factors such as asset allocation demand, expectations of loose monetary policy, supply pressure from fiscal stimulus, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks [1]. - Copper prices are under pressure due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, but the downside is limited as downstream industries resume production, and they are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong due to supply disruptions in the Middle East and rising energy costs [1]. - Alumina prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as the cost support emerges despite weak fundamentals [1]. - Zinc prices are oscillating due to the game between short - term supply concerns and inflation risks [1]. - Nickel prices may oscillate at a high level due to supply disruptions in Indonesia and macro - emotional fluctuations [1]. - Stainless steel futures are expected to oscillate widely, and attention should be paid to demand acceptance [1]. - Tin prices are greatly affected by the macro situation and have declined [1]. - Precious metal prices are expected to oscillate repeatedly due to oil price fluctuations and a strong US dollar [1]. - Platinum and palladium prices are likely to oscillate weakly in the short term until the Middle East geopolitical situation becomes clear [1]. - Industrial silicon supply is increasing, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing [1]. - Polysilicon investment should be on the sidelines due to liquidity risks [1]. - Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating due to factors such as strong energy storage demand, weak power demand, battery exports, and mine disruptions [1]. - Rebar prices are oscillating due to low inventory and weak demand expectations [1]. - Hot rolled coil prices are oscillating, and attention should be paid to de - stocking pressure [1]. - Iron ore prices are oscillating more sharply due to policy fluctuations, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1]. - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are supported by geopolitical conflicts, policy incentives, and cost factors despite weak supply - demand [1]. - Bond prices are affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors [1]. - Soda ash prices are under pressure in the medium term due to more relaxed supply - demand, although affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term [1]. - Coking coal and coke prices are affected by geopolitical factors, and the coking profit has been repaired [1]. - Palm oil prices are bullish due to tight supply - demand in the international market [1]. - Soybean oil prices are expected to rise following other oils and can be used for short - position hedging [1]. - Rapeseed oil prices are bullish in the short term due to potential US biodiesel policies [1]. - Cotton prices are expected to rise in the medium to long term as demand recovers and planting area decreases [1]. - Sugar prices are expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn futures prices are expected to oscillate at a high level [1]. - Soybean meal prices are oscillating strongly in the short term, and the upside space needs new drivers [1]. - Pulp futures prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 5200 - 5400 yuan/ton [1]. - Log futures prices have fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live pig prices are supported by demand, and production capacity needs further release [1]. - Fuel oil prices are affected by geopolitical factors and market sentiment [1]. - Asphalt prices are affected by cost but have relatively weak influence in the energy sector [1]. - BR rubber prices are rising and have upward potential due to supply disruptions and cost support [1]. - PTA prices are affected by geopolitical factors, supply shortages, and downstream demand [1]. - Ethylene glycol prices have risen due to raw material shortages [1]. - Styrene prices are rising strongly due to supply disruptions and strong demand [1]. - Urea prices have limited upside due to weak domestic demand but are supported by cost [1]. - Methanol prices are affected by Iranian imports and high domestic inventory [1]. - PE, PP, and PVC prices are bullish due to geopolitical factors and capacity adjustments [1]. - PG prices are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical premiums, demand, and inventory [1].

Core Viewpoint - The recent extreme volatility in the domestic commodity futures market is primarily driven by energy prices and geopolitical tensions, leading to significant price fluctuations and a shift from a bullish to a bearish market within a short period [2][5][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On March 9, a wide range of commodity futures experienced a significant surge, particularly in the energy and chemical sectors, with many contracts hitting their daily price limits [2]. - The market saw a "limit-up" phenomenon, especially in energy products like SC crude oil and fuel oil, driven by rising international oil prices, which approached $120 per barrel [5][6]. - Following the initial surge, market sentiment quickly reversed, with only 10 out of 72 main contracts maintaining an upward trend the next day, indicating a shift to a volatile trading environment [2][7]. Group 2: Impact of Geopolitical Factors - The escalation of tensions in the Middle East has raised global energy supply concerns, contributing to the rapid increase in oil prices [5]. - The rise in oil prices not only directly affects energy products but also influences chemical product prices through cost transmission along the supply chain [6]. - Domestic refined oil prices have also increased in line with international oil prices, reinforcing expectations of further energy price hikes [7]. Group 3: CTA Strategy Performance - In periods of extreme market volatility, different types of Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) strategies exhibit significant performance divergence [9]. - Subjective CTA strategies, which rely on macroeconomic and fundamental analysis, may struggle to adapt quickly to sudden market changes, leading to increased net value fluctuations [9]. - In contrast, quantitative CTA strategies, which utilize diversified portfolios and automated trading, tend to perform more stably during volatile periods due to their risk management mechanisms [9]. Group 4: Long-term Market Outlook - High volatility in the commodity market often indicates increased trend opportunities, driven by geopolitical conflicts, energy price fluctuations, and changing global inflation expectations [13]. - In the current environment of macroeconomic uncertainty, CTA strategies remain valuable for asset allocation, offering risk diversification and potential trend capture during significant price movements [13]. - Investors are advised to focus on the stability of strategy structures, as diversified quantitative CTA strategies are better suited to handle extreme market conditions compared to single-product strategies [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term geopolitical factors face significant uncertainties, and most commodities are expected to oscillate in the short term. The mid - to long - term strategy for some commodities can consider building long positions by leveraging the discount advantage of stock index futures [1]. - The energy price increase raises inflation risks and suppresses interest - rate cut expectations, but the unexpected February non - farm payrolls in the US increase the risk of economic stagflation, which also supports the prices of precious metals and platinum - palladium [1]. - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts have a wide - ranging impact on the commodity market, affecting supply, demand, and cost factors of various commodities [1]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Metals - **Precious Metals**: Affected by factors such as inflation risk, economic stagflation risk, and geopolitical games, precious metals are expected to oscillate in the short term, and platinum - palladium prices may fluctuate within a range [1]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Due to the deterioration of the Middle East situation and the continuous accumulation of domestic and foreign copper inventories, copper prices are running weakly [1]. - **Aluminum**: The supply disturbances in the Middle East and the increase in energy costs are expected to drive aluminum prices to be strong. Attention should be paid to the supply disturbances in the Middle East [1]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity has slightly declined, but the inventory has further accumulated, with a weak fundamental situation, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - **Zinc**: The concerns about zinc ore supply support zinc prices, but the short - term fundamental contradictions are limited, and zinc prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Nickel**: The supply of Indonesian nickel ore is tightening, and nickel prices may oscillate at a high level, affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous sector. It is recommended to go long on dips [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The raw material prices have risen after the festival, and the steel mills' production schedule in March has increased significantly. The social inventory has slightly decreased. The stainless steel futures are expected to oscillate widely, and low - buying opportunities can be focused on [1]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are highly volatile and oscillating. Investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. - **Ferrous Metals** - **Steel Products** - **Rebar**: The inventory is at a relatively high historical level, and the price is expected to oscillate. After taking profits on the long - basis positions, wait for the next entry opportunity [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has significant upward pressure, but due to geopolitical conflicts, it is difficult for iron ore to have a unilateral downward trend. The short - term supply and demand are weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy benefits, and cost support are positive factors [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply and demand are weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy benefits, and cost support are positive for the price [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the expected reduction in supply and geopolitical conflicts provide cost support [1]. - **Glass**: The cost is supported by the increase in energy prices due to geopolitical conflicts, and the supply and demand are weak in the short term [1]. - **Soda Ash**: It mainly follows the trend of glass. In the short term, it is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the supply and demand will be more relaxed in the medium term, with price pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The first round of spot price cuts has begun, but the market has already priced in 2 - 3 rounds of cuts. The market is waiting to see, and industrial players can establish cash - and - carry positions in the 05 contract on rebounds [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors drive up the price, which in turn affects the prices of related energy and chemical products [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors such as the Middle East conflict, the market sentiment is positive, and the risk appetite of funds has recovered [1]. - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is relatively small, but the price is affected by the cost transmission of crude oil [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: After the festival, the downstream demand is gradually recovering, the basis difference has expanded to a high level in the same period, and the raw material cost has strong support [1]. - **BR Rubber**: Due to the impact of the shutdown of upstream production, the inventory may turn into a deficit. The cost of butadiene has strong support, and the profit of private cis - butadiene rubber plants is in a loss state, with an increasing expectation of maintenance and production reduction [1]. - **PTA**: Geopolitical factors lead to a strong expectation of crude oil prices. Northeast Asian refineries are facing a shortage of crude oil supply, and the supply of PX is tight, which affects the downstream polyester industry [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to the reduction of raw materials caused by geopolitical factors, domestic ethylene glycol plants have seen a sharp increase in prices [1]. - **Styrene**: The overseas pure benzene and styrene markets are strongly rising due to multiple disturbances on the supply side, and the spot supply of styrene is extremely tight [1]. - **Methanol**: The import from Iran is affected by geopolitical conflicts, but the domestic production is at a high level, and the inventory is at a historical high [1]. - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical factors drive up the price of crude oil, but the fundamentals are weak [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, the global production capacity is expected to be reduced, and the geopolitical conflict has an impact on the raw material supply, with a relatively optimistic future expectation [1]. - **LPG**: The price is affected by factors such as the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the CP price, and the domestic and overseas demand. The basis difference is expected to repair and expand, and the demand side is short - term bearish [1]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten in the 2026/27 season. Domestically, the inventory is high, but the price is expected to rise gradually with the recovery of demand and the expectation of reduced planting [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in a state of structural surplus in the 2025/26 season, and the domestic sugar supply is also relatively abundant. The price of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to have limited fluctuations, with a pattern of strong domestic and weak international prices [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The Middle East conflict supports the prices of soybean and soybean meal. The short - term focus should be on international situation dynamics, and unilateral operations should be cautious [1]. - **Pulp**: The fundamental situation of pulp futures is weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 5350 - 5450 [1]. - **Logs**: The spot price of logs has risen, and the arrival volume in February has decreased. The external quotation is expected to rise, providing upward momentum for the market [1]. - **Livestock**: The recent spot price has stabilized, the demand is supported, and the production capacity needs to be further released [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term geopolitical factors face significant uncertainties, and most varieties are expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. For the medium - to - long - term, strategies can be formulated according to the characteristics of each variety, such as constructing long positions in combination with the premium advantage of stock index futures [1]. - The escalation of the Middle East situation has a wide - ranging impact on the market, affecting the risk appetite, supply, and cost of various commodities, and leading to different trends in different varieties [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The deterioration of the Middle East situation and the continuous accumulation of domestic and foreign copper inventories have led to a weak operation of copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: Although the Middle East situation has suppressed market risk appetite, the continuous increase in the supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East and the rise in energy prices have increased costs, so aluminum prices are expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East [1]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of domestic alumina has declined slightly, but the inventory has further increased, and the fundamentals are still weak. The short - term price will oscillate [1]. - **Zinc**: The concerns about zinc ore supply due to the Middle East situation can support zinc prices, but the short - term fundamental contradictions are limited, and zinc prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Nickel**: The tightening concerns of the RKAB quota of Indonesian nickel ore have resurfaced, the quota approval is slow, the nickel ore premium remains high, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may affect the MHP raw material supply. Nickel prices may oscillate at a high level and are still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous sector. It is recommended to go long on dips and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After the festival, raw material prices have risen, steel mills' production in March has increased significantly, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly, and there is still raw material support. Stainless steel futures will oscillate widely. Attention should be paid to the demand acceptance. It is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: Inflation risks have increased, putting short - term pressure on the non - ferrous sector. Tin will oscillate with high volatility in the short term. Investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection [1]. 3.2 Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: The continuous rise in energy prices has increased inflation risks and suppressed interest - rate cut expectations. However, the poor February non - farm payrolls in the United States have increased the risk of economic stagflation, and combined with the Middle East geopolitical game and private credit risks in the United States, precious metal prices may oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Platinum and Lithium**: The continuous rise in energy prices has increased inflation risks and suppressed interest - rate cut expectations. The poor February non - farm payrolls in the United States have increased the risk of economic stagflation, and the Middle East geopolitical uncertainty remains high. Platinum and lithium prices may oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon and Related Products - **Industrial Silicon**: There is production increase in the northwest and production decrease in the southwest. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December decreased by 88 [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The inventory is at a low level, the demand expectation is weak, and the price oscillates [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The energy storage demand is strong, there is battery export rush, and there are disturbances at the mine end. It is bullish [1]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Rebar**: The inventory is at a relatively high historical level, and the de - stocking pressure needs to be tested in the future. The price oscillates [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: After taking profits on the long - basis positions, wait for the next entry opportunity [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply and demand continue to be weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy benefits, and cost support are positive for the price. It is difficult for iron ore to have a unilateral downward market under geopolitical conflicts [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The short - term supply and demand are both weak, the expectation of supply reduction has increased, and at the same time, geopolitical conflicts have intensified, energy prices have strengthened, and there is cost support [1]. - **Glass**: The short - term supply and demand are both weak, the expectation of supply reduction has increased, and at the same time, geopolitical conflicts have intensified, energy prices have strengthened, and there is cost support [1]. - **Soda Ash**: It mainly follows glass. In the short term, it is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and in the medium term, the supply and demand are more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Geopolitical conflicts continue to ferment, and the first round of spot price cuts for coking coal and coke has begun. However, the previous low has already factored in the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, so there is not much market trading. The digital targets given by the domestic two sessions are basically in line with expectations. As energy and chemical products rise and other assets perform poorly, the market is moving towards the stagflation logic. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in the situation. Energy - related varieties should avoid speculative short positions, and coking coal and coke should be mainly on the sidelines. The industry can take advantage of the rebound opportunity to establish spot - futures positive hedging positions in the 05 contract [1]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The sharp rise in crude oil will drive up the price of palm oil through the biodiesel demand. However, the current fundamental pressure of palm oil is large, with high inventory in Malaysia, the production season, and the consumption off - season. Be vigilant against the decline after the stagnation of crude oil [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The sharp rise in crude oil will drive up the price of soybean oil through the biodiesel demand. However, after the end of the Southeast Asian Ramadan, the incremental export of domestic soybean oil may decline rhythmically, and the large arrival of soybeans in April will also bring pressure. Be vigilant against the decline after the stagnation of crude oil [1]. - **Cotton**: Internationally, the USDA expects that the global cotton inventory will tighten in the 2026/27 season due to production cuts in major producing countries and increased consumption. China's import demand is expected to increase by 25%, and the export of US cotton will slightly increase but face competition from Brazil. Recently, the export sales of US cotton have reached a new high for the year, and Trump's visit to China may further expand the import of US agricultural products, which is beneficial to the export of US cotton. Domestically, the cotton inventory is high, the willingness of textile enterprises to replenish inventory is weak, the supply is abundant, the demand is stable and resilient, and the import substitution pressure brought by the internal - external price difference exists. The policy is stable, and the reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang is the core variable. The domestic cotton price will gradually rise with the recovery of demand and the expectation of reduced planting in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the global sugar market has a clear pattern of structural surplus in the 2025/26 season. India has a significant increase in production, Brazil's production remains high, and Thailand's slight production cut has limited impact. The overall supply of major producing countries is abundant. With the expectation of the new sugar - crushing season in Brazil, the supply pressure in the global sugar market continues to increase. Domestically, the supply of domestic sugar is in a loose pattern in the 2025/26 season. The production of cane sugar has entered the peak of concentrated crushing, and the domestic sugar production has increased year - on - year. The arrival of imported sugar is stable, and the industrial inventory is high. The total domestic supply is abundant, and the market has changed from a tight balance to a slight surplus. Overall, it is expected that the Zhengzhou sugar price will have a ceiling and a floor and will not fluctuate significantly, and the pattern of strong domestic and weak international prices will continue. The short - term inventory replenishment demand and geopolitical risks support the disk to oscillate strongly, but the downstream profit is poor, and it is expected to increase the use of other substitutes. In addition, pay attention to policy risks, such as the release of policy grains such as aged rice and changes in import policy orientation [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The continuous Middle East conflict has raised concerns about the increase in shipping costs and planting costs. The war risk premium supports the US soybean and soybean meal disks. In the short term, pay attention to the international situation. The sustainability of the war is difficult to estimate, and be cautious in unilateral operations [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The weak fundamentals of paper pulp futures are difficult to change in the short term. The whole industry chain is accumulating inventory, and the price increase letters of domestic finished paper are difficult to implement. Affected by the macro - sentiment of commodities, paper pulp futures have increased in price with reduced positions. Pay attention to the pressure level of 5350 - 5450 [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has increased, the log arrival volume in February has decreased, and the expectation of an increase in the foreign quotation is relatively clear, so the disk has an upward driving force. At the same time, the foreign quotation has increased due to the impact of shipping costs. Pay attention to the domestic acceptance [1]. - **Pig**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized, supported by demand. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the expectation of crude oil has strengthened significantly. The Northeast Asian refineries are extremely dependent on crude oil supply from the Middle East. Due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Northeast Asian refineries are facing a shortage of crude oil supply and have to reduce their production [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The escalation of the Middle East situation, the obstruction of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the increase in market risk appetite have all affected fuel oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian asphalt imports on the domestic market is not large, but the price transmission of crude oil on the cost side affects asphalt, which is relatively weak among energy varieties [1]. - **BD and BR Rubber**: The escalation of the US - Iran situation has a great impact on the raw material imports in Northeast Asia. Refineries have chosen to stop production for maintenance and suspend external sales due to the lack of raw materials. The prices of BD and BR have risen significantly and still have room to rise. The cost of butadiene has strong support at the bottom, the price of Japanese light naphtha is still rising, and the overseas cracking device capacity is being cleared, which is beneficial to the long - term domestic butadiene export expectation. Recently, the profit of private cis - butadiene devices has remained in a loss state, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback is gradually being realized. In terms of fundamentals, the inventory of BD/BR may turn to a de - stocking expectation under the influence of upstream production suspension [1]. - **PX**: The Asian PX market's speculative sentiment has recovered, but the physical supply is tight, and the physical PX has begun to be in short supply. Due to the extreme market concerns, downstream replenishment has been rapid, and the polyester's operating load is also lower than expected [1]. - **Naphtha and Ethylene Glycol**: The Middle East situation is tense, and the market is in chaos. Asian naphtha cracking devices have undergone large - scale production cuts and shutdowns. South Korea, as the largest naphtha cracking center in Asia, has synchronously launched production - cut plans, and the overall operating rate has dropped sharply. Domestic refineries have also taken actions to reduce production and load to deal with the possible reduction of raw materials. Domestic ethylene glycol devices have risen sharply due to the reduction of raw materials [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The overseas pure benzene market has risen driven by the soaring energy prices, and multiple disturbances on the supply side are also affecting the price. The Middle East geopolitical conflict continues to ferment, providing strong support for oil prices. The middle and lower reaches are buying goods crazily, the market is cautious in selling, and the trading atmosphere is crazy. The overseas pure benzene devices have concentrated production cuts and declared force majeure. The overseas styrene market has shown a strong upward pattern under multiple disturbances on the supply side. The downstream and traders of styrene are replenishing goods crazily, resulting in an extremely tight supply of styrene spot. Any unexpected interruption may cause the price to soar further [1]. - **Methanol**: Iran's imports have a significant impact. The mutual attacks on energy facilities between the US and Iran have led to the shutdown of some devices, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has prevented Iranian methanol from being transported out. However, the current domestic production is at a high level, and the inventory is at the highest level in the same period of history [1]. - **PE**: The geopolitical situation has heated up, crude oil has risen, and the fundamentals are weak [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the clearance of PVC production capacity, and the future expectation is optimistic. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, freight has risen, and the ethylene - based method is facing the problem of raw material shortage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in March is flat, and the near - month purchase is still relatively tight. The premium of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has recovered, and the PG trend is strong. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, and it is expected that the basis will continue to repair and expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short - term demand for LPG is bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the disk. The port is continuously de - stocking, but the domestic civil gas is relatively abundant, resulting in a divergence in the internal and external market trends and a deviation between FEI and PG [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pay attention to the emotional resonance of the Asia - Pacific stock market, especially the market - rescue strategy launched by South Korea, and observe the emotional transmission of external markets such as the South Korean stock index; also focus on the evolution of the Middle East war situation. If the geopolitical situation eases, the short - term adjustment of the stock index will bring good long - position layout opportunities [1]. - The market fluctuates under the intertwined influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure brought by fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks [1]. - The deterioration of the Middle East situation suppresses market risk appetite, and the continuous accumulation of domestic and foreign copper inventories leads to a continued weak adjustment of copper prices [1]. - Although the Middle East situation suppresses market risk appetite, the supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East continues to heat up, and the rising energy prices increase costs, so aluminum prices continue to rise [1]. - The uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the concern about zinc ore supply support zinc prices, and the short - term fundamental contradictions are limited, so zinc prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - The complex and changeable Middle East situation and the tightening concern of Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB quota make nickel prices likely to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to go long on dips while controlling risks [1]. - The raw material prices of stainless steel rise after the festival, the social inventory increases, and the futures price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to pay attention to low - long opportunities while controlling risks [1]. - The inflation risk heats up, putting short - term pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector, and tin prices fluctuate with high volatility. Investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. - The continuous conflict between the US and Iran, geopolitical games, inflation concerns, and a strong US dollar continue to disturb the precious metal market, and the prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - The supply of industrial silicon increases in the northwest and decreases in the southwest, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon decline in December [1]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is strong due to factors such as strong energy storage demand, battery export rush, and mine - end disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [1]. - The spot of steel products has not fully recovered. It is necessary to observe the spot start - up situation around the Lantern Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [1]. - The iron ore has obvious upward pressure, and it is not recommended to chase the long position at this position [1]. - The short - term supply and demand of some products are weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy benefits, and cost support are positive for prices [1]. - The short - term supply and demand of glass are weak, but the expected reduction in supply, intensified geopolitical conflicts, and rising energy prices provide cost support [1]. - Soda ash follows glass, is affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term, and faces price pressure in the medium term due to looser supply and demand [1]. - Geopolitical conflicts drive up the prices of energy - chemical products, and coal and coke prices strengthen. It is necessary to pay attention to the market logic moving towards stagflation, and relevant trading operations need to be cautious [1]. - The sharp rise in crude oil will drive up the prices of oils and fats, but the current fundamental pressure of oils and fats is large, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the decline after the stagnation of crude oil prices [1]. - Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten in the 2026/27 season, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise gradually with demand recovery and planting reduction expectations [1]. - The global sugar market is under increasing supply pressure in the 2025/26 season, and the domestic sugar market is in a situation of loose supply. It is expected that Zheng sugar prices will have limited fluctuations and maintain an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - The corn price is supported by factors such as fast grain sales in the Northeast, stable downstream breeding demand, and low post - festival inventory, but it is necessary to be vigilant against negative feedback from high prices [1]. - The soybean FOB price is under pressure due to Brazil's bumper harvest, and the upside of the soybean meal futures price is limited in the short term [1]. - The softwood pulp is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the post - festival port inventory [1]. - The log spot price rises, and the futures price has an upward driving force [1]. - The pig spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. - The Middle East conflict leads to risks and premiums in the commodity market, and the prices of fuel oil and asphalt are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and cost support [1]. - The prices of BR rubber, PTA, and other chemical products are affected by geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [1]. - The prices of some chemical products such as urea, methanol, and PVC are affected by factors such as export, supply - demand, and geopolitical situations [1]. - The PG price is affected by factors such as CP price, geopolitical conflict, and demand, showing a strong trend, but there are also differentiation and pressure factors [1]. - The container shipping European line is affected by war emotions, red - sea situation, and shipping company price - increasing intentions [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock Index: Pay attention to the emotional resonance of the Asia - Pacific stock market and the evolution of the Middle East war situation. If the geopolitical situation eases, the short - term adjustment of the stock index will bring good long - position layout opportunities [1]. - Treasury Bond: The market fluctuates under the influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure brought by fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The deterioration of the Middle East situation suppresses market risk appetite, and the continuous accumulation of domestic and foreign copper inventories leads to a continued weak adjustment of copper prices [1]. - Aluminum: The supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East continues to heat up, and the rising energy prices increase costs, so aluminum prices continue to rise. Domestic alumina has a weak fundamental situation and short - term price fluctuations [1]. - Zinc: The uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the concern about zinc ore supply support zinc prices, and the short - term fundamental contradictions are limited, so zinc prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Nickel: The complex and changeable Middle East situation and the tightening concern of Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB quota make nickel prices likely to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to go long on dips while controlling risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: The raw material prices rise after the festival, the social inventory increases, and the futures price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to pay attention to low - long opportunities while controlling risks [1]. - Tin: The inflation risk heats up, putting short - term pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector, and tin prices fluctuate with high volatility. Investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium: The continuous conflict between the US and Iran, geopolitical games, inflation concerns, and a strong US dollar continue to disturb the precious metal market, and the prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Industrial Silicon: The supply increases in the northwest and decreases in the southwest, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon decline in December [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The demand is strong due to factors such as strong energy storage demand, battery export rush, and mine - end disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [1]. Black Metals - Steel Products (Threaded Steel, Hot - Rolled Coil): The spot has not fully recovered. It is necessary to observe the spot start - up situation around the Lantern Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [1]. - Iron Ore: The upward pressure is obvious, and it is not recommended to chase the long position at this position [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Geopolitical conflicts drive up the prices, but it is necessary to pay attention to the market logic moving towards stagflation, and relevant trading operations need to be cautious [1]. - Glass: The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the expected reduction in supply, intensified geopolitical conflicts, and rising energy prices provide cost support [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, is affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term, and faces price pressure in the medium term due to looser supply and demand [1]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten in the 2026/27 season, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise gradually with demand recovery and planting reduction expectations [1]. - Sugar: The global sugar market is under increasing supply pressure in the 2025/26 season, and the domestic sugar market is in a situation of loose supply. It is expected that Zheng sugar prices will have limited fluctuations and maintain an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn: The price is supported by factors such as fast grain sales in the Northeast, stable downstream breeding demand, and low post - festival inventory, but it is necessary to be vigilant against negative feedback from high prices [1]. - Soybean Meal: The soybean FOB price is under pressure due to Brazil's bumper harvest, and the upside of the soybean meal futures price is limited in the short term [1]. - Softwood Pulp: Expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the post - festival port inventory [1]. - Log: The spot price rises, and the futures price has an upward driving force [1]. - Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil and Asphalt: Affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, cost support, and demand recovery [1]. - BR Rubber: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, cost support, and supply - demand relationships, the price has an upward space [1]. - PTA: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and production capacity maintenance, the supply is expected to tighten [1]. - Other Chemical Products (Urea, Methanol, PVC, etc.): Affected by factors such as export, supply - demand, and geopolitical situations [1]. - PG: Affected by factors such as CP price, geopolitical conflict, and demand, showing a strong trend, but there are also differentiation and pressure factors [1]. Others - Container Shipping European Line: Affected by war emotions, red - sea situation, and shipping company price - increasing intentions [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Carbonate Lithium, Fuel Oil, LPG, PTA, 2-Butene [1] - **Bearish**: None - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock Index, Treasury Bonds, Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Precious Metals, Platinum, Palladium, Industrial Silicon, Threaded Steel, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Vegetable Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, White Sugar, Corn, Soybean Meal, Coniferous Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Bitumen, BR Rubber, Styrene, Urea, Methanol, PVC, Caustic Soda, Container Shipping on the European Line [1] - **Wait-and-See**: Polysilicon, Threaded Steel, Hot Rolled Coil [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, attention should be paid to the evolution of the Middle East conflict. If the conflict ends quickly, the market sentiment will recover rapidly after the shock adjustment of the stock index, and an upward trend will be opened. The approaching of China's "Two Sessions" provides support for the stock index. If the Middle East situation does not deteriorate further, the short - term adjustment of the stock index will bring a good long - position layout opportunity [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has indicated interest - rate risks in the short term, and attention should be paid to the interest - rate decision of the Bank of Japan [1]. - Overseas macro factors are favorable for copper prices, but the continuous accumulation of global copper inventories suppresses prices. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is disturbed, and the domestic alumina production capacity is decreasing, but the inventory is increasing. The supply of zinc ore from Iran is a concern, and the supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is tight. The prices of these metals are expected to oscillate in the short term [1]. - Geopolitical conflicts support the prices of precious metals, but rising oil prices increase inflation risks and weaken the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Once the geopolitical situation eases, precious metal prices may decline. Platinum and palladium are expected to enter a range - bound oscillation after rising [1]. - For industrial silicon, the production in the northwest is increasing while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December is decreasing. The demand for carbonate lithium is strong, but the spot market has not fully recovered [1]. - The black - metal market is in a slack season before the "Two Sessions", and the market is looking forward to the peak season after the "Two Sessions". In the long term, the market is pessimistic about coking coal 05 [1]. - The rise in crude oil prices is expected to drive up vegetable oil prices in the short term, but the supply of raw materials may increase in the medium term [1]. - The cotton market is currently supported but lacks driving forces. The global white - sugar market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The corn market is supported by replenishment demand but needs to be cautious about high - price feedback. The soybean - meal market is expected to oscillate within a range [1]. - The prices of fuel oil and LPG are affected by the Middle East situation. The prices of various energy - chemical products are affected by geopolitical factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [1]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Short - term oscillation adjustment space is limited. If the Middle East situation does not worsen, the short - term adjustment brings a long - position layout opportunity [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but there are short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Overseas macro factors are favorable, but inventory accumulation suppresses prices, and short - term oscillation is expected [1]. - **Aluminum**: Supply is disturbed, and the price oscillates [1]. - **Alumina**: Domestic production capacity is decreasing, but inventory is increasing, and short - term oscillation is expected [1]. - **Zinc**: The supply of Iranian zinc ore is a concern, which may boost the price in the short term. Attention should be paid to downstream resumption of work after the festival [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply in Indonesia is tight, and the price may oscillate at a high level in the short term. In the long term, high global inventory may have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to go long at low prices [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Raw material prices have risen after the festival, and the supply side in Indonesia is frequently disturbed. The futures price oscillates strongly. Attention should be paid to post - festival demand recovery, and it is recommended to go long in the short term [1]. - **Tin**: The Middle East situation is favorable, and the price is expected to continue to strengthen. Attention should be paid to risk management in the short - term high - volatility situation [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical conflicts support prices, but rising oil prices increase inflation risks. Once the situation eases, prices may decline. Short - term oscillation is expected [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Geopolitical factors are favorable, but the strong US dollar and mixed fundamentals lead to a range - bound oscillation after the price increase [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Production in the northwest is increasing, while that in the southwest is decreasing. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December is decreasing [1]. - **Polysilicon**: It is recommended to wait and see due to liquidity risks [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Demand is strong, but the spot market has not fully recovered. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Threaded Steel and Hot Rolled Coil**: The spot market has not fully recovered. It is recommended to wait and see, and look for profit - taking opportunities for the basis positions [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is obvious upward pressure, and it is not recommended to chase the rise [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Short - term supply and demand are weak, but policy support and cost factors are favorable [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Short - term supply and demand are weak, and the supply is expected to decrease. Soda ash follows glass, and the medium - term supply is more abundant, putting pressure on prices [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is in a slack season before the "Two Sessions", and the market is looking forward to the peak season after the "Two Sessions". In the long term, the market is pessimistic about coking coal 05. It is recommended to establish long - short arbitrage positions [1]. Agricultural Products - **Vegetable Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The rise in crude oil prices is expected to drive up prices in the short term, but the supply of raw materials may increase in the medium term. It is recommended to be bullish in the short term and wait and see in the medium term [1]. - **Cotton**: The market is supported but lacks driving forces. Attention should be paid to relevant policies, planting intentions, and seasonal demand [1]. - **White Sugar**: The global market is in surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply is increasing. The short - term fundamentals lack continuous driving forces, and attention should be paid to the capital situation [1]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure is limited, and the demand for replenishment supports the price, but attention should be paid to the negative feedback of high prices [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The market has rebounded, but the rebound is limited under the pressure of large global supply. It is expected to oscillate within a range [1]. - **Coniferous Pulp**: It is expected to oscillate between 5200 - 5400 in the short term, and attention should be paid to post - festival port inventory [1]. - **Logs**: The spot price has risen, and the arrival volume in February has decreased. The price has an upward driving force [1]. - **Live Pigs**: The spot price is stable, and the production capacity needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the market sentiment is bullish [1]. - **Bitumen**: The cost is supported, the market sentiment is positive, and the downstream demand is gradually recovering [1]. - **BR Rubber**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the short - term price is expected to oscillate widely, and there is an upward expectation in the long term [1]. - **PTA**: The supply is expected to tighten in the future, and the price is expected to rise [1]. - **2 - Butene**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price is expected to rise [1]. - **Styrene**: The production economy is stable, and the demand is expected to recover gradually [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased, and the upward space is limited, but there is support at the bottom [1]. - **Methanol**: The import is expected to decrease, but the downstream feedback is obvious, and the situation is mixed [1]. - **PVC**: The future is expected to be optimistic, but the current fundamentals are poor [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are weak, but the price has a small increase [1]. - **LPG**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price is strong, but the demand is short - term bearish, and the internal and external markets show different trends [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The price increase is generally stable, and shipping companies are cautious about resuming flights. They have a strong willingness to stop the decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1].