Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, and A - shares lack a clear upward mainline. The market trading volume remains low, and short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are awaited for further index upward movement [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. - There are various trends and influencing factors for different commodities, such as metals, energy, and agricultural products, with most prices expected to maintain a volatile trend, and some having specific supply - demand and macro - factor - related outlooks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current macro - level is in a vacuum, A - shares lack an upward mainline, trading volume is low, and short - term market differences will be digested in index shock adjustment. New driving mainlines are needed for further upward movement [1]. Treasury Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central - bank interest - rate risk warnings suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The expectation of a December Fed rate cut has cooled, causing copper price to回调. However, the Fed is still in a rate - cut cycle, and there are still disturbances at the mine end, so the callback range is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, industrial - side driving forces are limited, and macro - sentiment is volatile, so the aluminum price is running in a high - level shock [1]. - **Alumina**: With domestic alumina production capacity continuously releasing, production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, and the price is oscillating around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: There are signs of short - term domestic improvement in the fundamentals, but the surplus pattern remains unchanged. With the Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut, the zinc price is expected to maintain a shock trend [1]. - **Nickel**: The Fed has large internal differences on the December rate cut, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. Indonesia has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again. Recently, the planned production cut of Indonesian intermediate products may affect about 6000 metal tons in July. If the macro - sentiment improves, the nickel price has a repair expectation. In the long - term, the primary nickel market will continue to be in a surplus pattern [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Fed's internal differences on the December rate cut are large, and the macro - sentiment is volatile. The price of raw - material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. The November production cut of steel mills is limited. The stainless - steel futures are searching for the bottom in shock [1]. - **Tin**: The Fed's internal differences are increasing, and the macro - sentiment is expected to be volatile. The long - term view on tin is bullish due to the significant decline in Indonesian tin export scale, unrepaired tin - ore supply, and expected terminal - downstream demand [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Fed officials have soothed the market, and the probability of a December rate cut has rebounded. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There is an expectation of medium - long - term capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, terminal installation has a marginal increase. Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the southwest's start - up is weaker than in previous years, with the impact of the dry season weakening [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The production schedule in November has decreased [1]. - **Organic Silicon**: There has been a joint production cut [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and there is supply - side resumption and production increase. But there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Building Materials and Energy - **Rebar**: The industry off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. In the short - term macro - vacuum period, the basis is acceptable, and it is advisable to participate in spot - futures positive arbitrage or use option strategies to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The direct demand is okay, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure. The price rebound space is limited [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: From a valuation perspective, this round of decline is close to the end. The coke price at 1630 reflects the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, and coking - coal contracts are also close to key support levels. Further decline requires continuous increase in coking - coal supply. Downstream is expected to start a new round of replenishment around mid - December [1]. - **Glass**: It follows the glass trend, but the supply - demand situation is average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The valuation indicates that this round of decline is close to the end, and the driving force may need more time. Downstream is expected to start replenishment around mid - December [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: High - frequency data shows increased production and reduced exports in the origin, and the near - month pressure is still high. Domestic ship - buying is active, and the basis is expected to be weak. The risk lies in a significant production cut in the origin [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The rumor of "US delaying the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive expected difference for US soybeans and US soybean oil. Under high domestic crushing, the basis may be stable or slightly weak [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The industry is optimistic about the replenishment of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil, and the trend remains unchanged, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream start - up remains low, but the yarn - mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand [1]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to be under pressure and follow the raw - sugar price [1]. - **Corn**: Short - term factors such as farmers' reluctance to sell, tight logistics in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory have led to a temporary supply shortage. The selling pressure is postponed, and the market's acceptance of high - price corn is limited before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans. From December to January, the market is expected to gradually shift to trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop. MO5 is recommended to be shorted on rallies [1]. Pulp and Wood - **Paper Pulp**: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products, and the upward space is limited. After new warehouse - receipts are registered, 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - **Log**: The fundamental situation of logs has weakened, but it has been priced in the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the profit - loss ratio of short - selling is low, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Livestock - **Pig**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. With demand support and the un - cleared slaughter weight, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the crude - oil trend in the short - term, the demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost - end support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and high - start - up and high - inventory have not been the main factors suppressing the price. The short - term price shows signs of stopping the decline [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of reforming devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are undergoing rotational inspections, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The crude - oil price decline has led to a fall in the ethylene - glycol price. The increase in coal price has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol price [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the start - up rates of STDP devices and reforming devices have decreased. The US pure - benzene price has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads [1]. - **Urea**: There is support from anti - involution and the cost end, but the export sentiment has eased, and domestic demand is insufficient [1]. - **PF**: The number of overhauls has decreased, the start - up load is high, the supply pressure is large, and the downstream improvement is limited [1]. - **PP**: The propylene monomer price is high, providing strong cost support. The supply pressure is increasing due to fewer future overhauls and new - capacity release [1]. - **PVC**: The delivery of Guangxi alumina has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the delivery rhythm has slowed down. There is a risk of a short squeeze due to low absolute prices and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamental situation is continuously loose, and the CP/FEI price has weakened. The domestic spot fundamental situation is stable, with price - valuation repair, restarting of combustion demand, and chemical rigid - demand support [1]. Shipping - **Asia - Europe Line**: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

人民财讯11月21日电，国内期货夜盘收盘多数下跌，苯乙烯跌近3%，LU燃油、纯苯、液化气跌超2%， BR橡胶、棕榈油、燃料油、橡胶跌超1%；玉米、玻璃小幅上涨。 （原标题：国内期货夜盘收盘多数下跌 苯乙烯跌近3%） ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: PR, BR rubber [1] - **Bearish**: Stainless steel, asphalt, short - term corn, M05 of soybean meal, PVC, PP, some petrochemical products [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Index, Treasury bonds, copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, precious metals, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, rebar, iron ore, manganese silicon, silicon carbide, glass, pure alkali, coking coal, coke, cotton, pulp, logs, crude oil, fuel oil, short - term soybean oil, long - term tin [1] 2. Core Views - The current macro environment is in a relatively vacuum period. A - share lacks a clear upward trend, and trading volume remains low. Short - term market differences will be gradually digested during index fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces to push the index up [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upward movement [1]. - The Fed's December interest - rate cut expectation has cooled down, affecting the prices of various commodities, but different commodities have different responses based on their own fundamentals [1]. 3. Summary by Categories Equity and Bond Markets - **Index**: Short - term market differences will be digested during fluctuations, waiting for new driving forces for upward movement [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the rise [1] Commodity Markets - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation cooling affects prices. Copper price decline is limited; aluminum price fluctuates at a high level; zinc has support below; nickel price fluctuates downward; stainless steel needs to pay attention to production; tin is bullish in the long - term [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is affected by OPEC+ production increase, geopolitical factors, and trade policies; asphalt is bearish; PR is bullish; BR rubber may rebound; PTA production declines; ethylene glycol is affected by multiple factors; PP and PVC are bearish; LPG fundamentals are stable [1] - **Agricultural Products**: New energy vehicle demand is strong, but lithium carbonate has upward pressure; cotton market is in a state of "support but no driver"; corn, soybean meal, and other grains have different price trends; pulp and logs have limited upward space; livestock products such as pigs have over - capacity issues [1] - **Building Materials and Metals**: Rebar and iron ore are affected by supply and demand and macro factors; coking coal and coke are affected by steel prices and supply - demand relationships; glass and pure alkali have limited upward space [1] - **Fuel and Oil Products**: Crude oil price fluctuates; fuel oil follows crude oil; asphalt is bearish; PR is bullish; BR rubber may rebound [1]

| G国贸期货 | 日時 路 参 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期: 20 | 份格号:F02519 | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 当前宏观层面处于相对真空期,A股缺乏明确的上涨主线,市场成 | 交维持低位,预计短期市场分歧将在股指震荡调整中逐步消化, | 農湯 | | 投稿 | 待新的驱动主线带来股指进一步上行。 | 无刘全部 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | | | | | 国 | 震荡 | 至间。 | 近期市场对美联储12月降息预期降温,铜价回调,但预计回调幅 | | | | | 農汤 | 度有限。 | 近期产业面驱动有限,而美联储12月份降息预期降温,铝价回调 | | | | | | 農汤 | JE | 在生产仍有小幅利润情况下,国内氧化铝产能持续释放,氧化铝 | | | | | | 氧化铝 | 产量及库存继续双增,基本面维持偏弱格局,近期价格继续围绕 | HE STAC | 成本线附近震荡运行。 | 美联储12月降 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuous period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and stock indices continue to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next upward movement. With policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock indices [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1] Summary by Industry Categories Macro - Finance - A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and stock indices fluctuate while accumulating upward momentum. There is strong support below the stock indices due to policy and liquidity [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks are a concern [1] National Debt - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward space [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - High copper prices inhibit downstream demand, but improved macro sentiment may lead to a stronger copper price [1] - Limited industrial drivers but improved macro market sentiment lead to a stronger aluminum price [1] - Domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, with both production and inventory increasing, and the price fluctuates around the cost line [1] - There is still a risk of LME zinc squeeze, and the zinc price is expected to remain high. However, due to domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices, and low - buying opportunities can be focused on [1] - The Indonesian government has restricted nickel - related smelting project approvals again, but approved projects are currently unaffected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the nickel ore quota approval in 2026. The nickel price may fluctuate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be noted [1] - Stainless steel social inventory has slightly decreased, and steel mills' production schedules in November have declined. Attention should be paid to actual production [1] - The tin raw material end has not recovered, and there are good expectations for new - quality demand. Long - term, attention can be paid to low - buying opportunities [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - The short - term upward trend of precious metal prices may slow down. When the government shutdown ends and missing economic data is released, it may affect precious metal prices [1] - For industrial silicon, northwest production capacity is being restored, southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and the impact of the dry season is weakening [1] - For polysilicon, production schedules in November are decreasing, the anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1] - For lithium carbonate, the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, but hedging pressure is high [1] Black Metals - For rebar, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to upward pressure, and the virtual value accumulated put strategy can be appropriately participated in [1] - For hot - rolled coils, the off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Attention should be paid to the upward price pressure after the macro sentiment is realized [1] - For iron ore, the near - month is restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month still has upward opportunities [1] - For activated carbon, short - term production profit is poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is okay, but supply is high, and the price rebound is limited [1] - For coking coal, the price is in a dilemma near the previous high. It is necessary to repeatedly test the support. The coke futures price has factored in the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but downstream steel mill profits are being squeezed, and the steel - coke game is intense. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and the long - term strategy is to buy at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1] - For coke, the logic is the same as that of coking coal. The futures price is at a premium, and industrial customers can consider selling hedging when the futures price rises [1] Agricultural Products - For soybean oil, China's commitment to purchase US soybeans has no substantial impact on soybean oil, and domestic inventory is decreasing. It is more resistant to decline among the three oils and can be over - allocated in arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the USDA supply - demand report [1] - For cotton, the domestic new crop has a strong harvest expectation, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream start - up is low, but there is rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future policies and demand situations should be noted [1] - For sugar, the global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year. The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the decline of the raw - sugar price [1] - For corn, short - term farmers are reluctant to sell, and some purchasers have restocking demand for high - quality corn. The spot price is firm, and the futures price rebounds. However, before the supply pressure is fully released, the upward drive is weak, and attention should be paid to farmers' selling rhythm [1] - For soybeans, the near - month purchase and crushing profit of both Brazilian and US soybeans in China is poor. Before the USDA report is released, the futures price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [1] Energy - Chemicals - For crude oil, OPEC + plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, short - term geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and Sino - US trade tariff policies have been temporarily suspended, easing market sentiment [1] - For fuel oil, similar to crude oil, short - term geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and Sino - US trade tariff policies have been temporarily suspended, easing market sentiment [1] - For asphalt, short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be false, and the supply of raw - material Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, with high profits [1] - For BR rubber, the cost - end butadiene support is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, and the high - inventory situation has not been the main suppressing factor. The short - term price has stopped falling, and attention should be paid to the subsequent rebound [1] - For PTA, gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas device failures and domestic device maintenance have led to a decline in PTA production [1] - For ethylene glycol, the decline in crude - oil price leads to a decline in ethylene - glycol price, while the increase in coal price strengthens the cost support. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season for polyester is ending, and domestic demand has not significantly declined [1] - For short - fiber, gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX, the PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. The short - fiber price closely follows the cost [1] - For pure benzene, the Asian benzene price is weak, the US pure - benzene price has increased, and there are more benzene - ethylene maintenance projects [1] - For urea, export sentiment has eased, domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution policies and the cost end [1] - For PVC, new production capacity is being released, the intensity of maintenance has weakened, downstream demand has declined, and orders are poor [1] - For caustic soda, there is a risk of squeeze due to pre - delivery of Guangxi alumina, reduced subsequent maintenance concentration, inventory reduction, and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1] - For LPG, the international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI price has weakened, the futures price has been re - valued, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable [1] Others - For the container shipping European line, the macro - positive sentiment has been digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1]

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures closed mixed, with silver rising over 2% and tin, crude oil, BR rubber, LU fuel, and rapeseed oil increasing over 1% [1] - On the downside, the shipping index for Europe fell over 3%, while red dates and eggs dropped over 2%, and coking coal, coke, and glass declined over 1% [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives outlooks for various commodities, including "看多" (bullish) for copper, nickel, stainless steel, and soybeans, and "震荡" (sideways) for most other commodities such as aluminum, zinc, gold, silver, etc. [1] 2) Core Views - The A-share market is currently in a relatively vacuous macro environment, lacking a clear upward trend. It is in a sideways movement, accumulating momentum for the next upward move. With policy support and ample macro - liquidity, the stock index has strong downside support. [1] - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts the upside. [1] - For commodities, different factors affect their prices. For example, high copper prices suppress downstream demand, but the increasing acceptance of copper prices by downstream and improved macro sentiment may lead to a stronger copper price. [1] 3) Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Financial - The A - share market is in a sideways trend, accumulating energy for an upward move. With policy and liquidity support, the downside of the stock index is limited. Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risk warnings restrict the upside. [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High copper prices suppress downstream demand, but the increasing acceptance of copper prices by downstream and improved macro sentiment may lead to a stronger copper price. [1] - **Aluminum**: Limited industrial drivers recently, but improved macro sentiment leads to a stronger aluminum price. [1] - **Alumina**: With production still having a small profit, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, resulting in a double - increase in production and inventory, and a weak fundamental pattern. [1] - **Zinc**: There is still a risk of a squeeze in LME zinc, and the zinc price is expected to remain high. However, due to the domestic supply surplus, caution is needed when chasing high prices. [1] - **Nickel**: The US Senate's progress on ending the government shutdown causes fluctuations in market risk appetite. Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals. The nickel price may fluctuate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. [1] - **Stainless Steel**: The price of raw material ferronickel weakens, and the social inventory of stainless steel decreases slightly. Steel mills' production in November decreases. The stainless steel futures are looking for a bottom in a sideways movement. [1] - **Tin**: The raw material end has not recovered, and the new demand is expected to be good. It is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities on dips in the medium - to - long term. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - **Gold**: Supported by the dual - liquidity easing expectations of the US fiscal and monetary policies, but there are still differences within the Fed regarding a December interest rate cut. The gold price may fluctuate in a high - level range. [1] - **Silver**: Boosted by liquidity, the silver price may be stronger in the short term. [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production capacity is recovering, and the impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production in November is decreasing. [1] - **Polysilicon**: There is an expectation of production capacity reduction in the long term, and the terminal installation in the fourth quarter is increasing marginally. [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, and the energy storage demand is strong, but there is high hedging pressure. [1] Steel and Iron - **Rebar**: There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices. [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro sentiment is realized. [1] - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month contract still has upward potential due to good commodity sentiment. [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is struggling at the previous high. Coke's price includes the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the steel - coking game is intense. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go long at low levels in the medium - to - long term. [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: A 4% production cut in Malaysia in early November fails to drive inventory reduction, and the domestic supply in the fourth quarter is relatively loose. [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China's commitment to purchase US soybeans has no substantial impact on soybean oil, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. It is recommended to be long in arbitrage. [1] - **Cotton**: The new domestic cotton harvest is expected to be good, and the purchase price supports the cost of lint. The downstream demand is weak, but there is rigid restocking demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver". [1] - **Sugar**: The global sugar supply changes from shortage to surplus, and the domestic new - crop supply pressure increases year - on - year. The Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to follow the decline of the raw sugar price. [1] - **Corn**: The short - term market has a strong willingness to purchase high - quality corn, and the spot price is firm. The upward movement of the futures price lacks strong drivers before the supply pressure is fully released. [1] - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the purchase progress for the 12 - 1 ship is slow. The domestic futures are expected to follow the US market and move sideways and strongly before the USDA report. [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December. The short - term geopolitical situation cools down, and the market sentiment eases. [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, affected by OPEC+ production plans, geopolitical situation, and market sentiment. [1] - **Asphalt**: The raw material cost has strong support, the futures - spot price difference is low, and the commodity market sentiment is positive. [1] - **Natural Rubber**: The cost of butadiene provides insufficient support, the synthetic rubber supply is loose, and the price has stopped falling recently. [1] - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in PTA production. [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price follows the decline of the crude oil price, and the coal - based cost support strengthens slightly. [1] - **Short Fiber**: The short - fiber price closely follows the cost due to the support of PX and the strengthening of the basis. [1] - **Benzene and Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the US benzene price rises, and the number of styrene overhauls increases. [1] - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, the domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support from anti -内卷 policies and the cost end. [1] - **PP**: New production capacity is released, the overhaul intensity weakens, and the downstream improvement is less than expected. [1] - **PVC**: The market returns to fundamentals, the number of overhauls increases slightly, but demand weakens. [1] - **Caustic Soda**: Guangxi alumina starts delivery, the subsequent overhaul concentration decreases, the caustic soda inventory decreases, and there is a risk of a squeeze in the near - month contract. [1] - **LPG**: The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, the CP/FEI price weakens, and the domestic LPG fundamentals are stable. [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The macro - positive sentiment is gradually digested, the peak - season price increase expectation is priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose. [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the mixed performance of domestic commodity futures, with some contracts experiencing significant gains while others faced declines [2] Group 2 - Silver futures on the Shanghai exchange rose by over 2%, indicating strong demand or market sentiment [2] - Other commodities such as tin, crude oil, BR rubber, LU fuel oil, and rapeseed oil saw increases of over 1%, suggesting a positive trend in these markets [2] - Conversely, shipping rates on the European route and egg prices fell by over 3%, while red dates dropped by over 2%, indicating potential challenges in these sectors [2] - Additionally, coking coal, coke, and glass prices decreased by over 1%, reflecting a downturn in these commodities [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and stock indices continue to fluctuate, while having strong support below due to policy protection and abundant macro - liquidity [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest rate risks suppresses the upward space [1]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: A - shares lack a clear upward main line, trading volume is low, and the index fluctuates while having strong support below [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but short - term interest rate risk warnings suppress the upward space [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High prices suppress downstream demand, and market risk preference declines, but the downward space is expected to be limited [1]. - **Aluminum**: The industrial driving force is limited in the near term, and the price maintains high - level fluctuations [1]. - **Alumina**: Domestic production capacity continues to be released, production and inventory increase, and the fundamentals are weak. Attention should be paid to cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: LME inventory continues to decline, and the risk of cornering the market drives the price up. The price is expected to remain high, but chasing high prices requires caution due to domestic over - supply [1]. - **Nickel**: The short - term price may rebound with fluctuations, but beware of high inventory suppression. The long - term pattern of primary nickel is over - supply [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The social inventory has slightly decreased, and the production schedule in October is stable. The futures price fluctuates at the bottom, and short - term operations are recommended [1]. - **Tin**: In the long - term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: They are expected to continue to fluctuate in a range in the short term, with support below. Pay attention to the progress of the US government shutdown and Trump's tariff ruling [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Northwest production capacity resumes, southwest start - up is weaker than usual, and the impact of the dry season weakens. Polysilicon production in November decreases [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It fluctuates. The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is coming, energy storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the realization of macro - sentiment, pay attention to the upward pressure [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Pay attention to the upward pressure on the price after the realization of macro - sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - month contract is restricted by production cuts, but the far - month has upward opportunities [1]. - **Glass**: Supply and demand are supportive, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates and the price fluctuates strongly [1]. - **Soda Ash**: It follows glass, but the supply and demand are average, and the upward resistance of the price is large [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal's trend is tangled near the previous high, and coke's high - point price includes the expectation of five rounds of price increases. The steel - coke game is intense, and the price may return to the shock range [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: It still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports in the short term. A rebound may occur if export data improves in November [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The purchase of US soybeans by China may bring a loose expectation, and the rebound momentum is insufficient [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders brings a relaxation expectation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed presses the price [1]. - **Cotton**: The new - year cotton demand is uncertain. The downward space of the futures price is limited, but the basis and the futures price may be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: The price has seasonal upward momentum in the short term, but the rebound space is expected to be limited after the new sugar is listed [1]. - **Corn**: The supply still faces selling pressure, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a medium - to - long - term rebound expected [1]. - **Soybeans**: The domestic soybean futures are expected to follow the US market and fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the global supply pattern restricts the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The trading logic is about the old warehouse receipts of the 11 - contract. The downward pressure on the futures price is large, and a 11 - 1 reverse spread is recommended [1]. - **Hogs**: The futures price follows the spot price and stabilizes and then weakens. There is still pressure on the supply in November [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ plans to maintain a small increase in production in December, geopolitical speculation cools down, and market sentiment eases [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows crude oil. The profit is relatively high [1]. - **BR Rubber**: It is bearish. The cost support weakens, and the supply is loose [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and domestic device problems lead to a decline in PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price follows the decline of crude oil, but the cost support from coal strengthens slightly [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price follows the cost closely, and the basis strengthens [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is weak, the arbitrage window is closed, and the profit of styrene plants decreases [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment eases, and the upward space is limited, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **PE**: The inventory pressure is large under high supply, the maintenance intensity weakens, and the downstream demand increases slowly [1]. - **PVC**: The supply pressure is large due to reduced maintenance and new production capacity, but the cost support strengthens [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is a risk of cornering the market due to planned alumina production in Guangxi, reduced maintenance concentration, and limited near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil and gas fundamentals are loose, and the domestic spot market stabilizes [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: Macro - positive sentiment is digested, the expected price increase in the peak season is pre - priced, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - level is in a relatively vacuum period, A - shares lack a clear upward main line, market trading volume remains low, and the stock index continues to fluctuate, accumulating momentum for the next round of upward movement. Meanwhile, with policy support and abundant macro - liquidity, there is still strong support below the stock index [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space, showing an oscillating trend [1]. - **Copper**: The tight pattern of US dollar liquidity has eased, market risk appetite has recovered, and copper prices have stopped falling [1]. - **Aluminum**: Recently, the industrial - side driving force is limited, and the macro - level benefits have been digested, so aluminum prices are oscillating [1]. - **Alumina**: With still a small profit in production, domestic alumina production capacity is continuously released, and both production and inventory are increasing, putting pressure on the spot price. Recently, attention should be paid to the cost support [1]. - **Zinc**: The US government shutdown has reached the longest historical record, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, and the short - squeeze movement has driven zinc prices higher. However, considering the domestic oversupply, caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Nickel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has recently restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the approval of nickel - ore quotas in 2026. Nickel prices may oscillate in the short term, and high inventory pressure should be watched out for. It is recommended to trade within a short - term range, and the long - term surplus pattern of primary nickel will continue [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The better - than - expected US ADP data has alleviated concerns about the US economic recession, but the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has been suppressed, and market risk appetite has fluctuated. Indonesia has restricted the approval of nickel - related smelting projects again, but the approved projects are not affected. In the fourth quarter, attention should be paid to the progress of the approval of Indonesian nickel - ore quotas, and the premium at the ore end is currently stable. The price of raw - material ferronickel has weakened slightly, the social inventory of stainless steel has decreased slightly, and the steel mills' production plan for October is stable. Macro - sentiment is fluctuating, steel mills have recently lifted price limits, and stainless - steel futures are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to trade short - term and look for opportunities to sell on rallies [1]. - **Tin**: Recently, the positive macro - sentiment has been digested. Considering that the raw - material end of tin has not recovered and the new - quality demand is expected to be good, it is still recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips in the long - term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Judges of the high - court generally question the legitimacy of tariffs, increasing market uncertainty and supporting precious - metal prices. However, the resilience of US economic data has disrupted the interest - rate cut expectation. Precious metals are expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production capacity in the northwest is continuously resuming, the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years, and the impact of the dry season is weakened [1]. - **Polysilicon**: In the long - term, there is an expectation of production - capacity reduction. In the fourth quarter, the terminal installation will increase marginally. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The traditional peak season for new - energy vehicles is approaching, the energy - storage demand is strong, but the hedging pressure is large [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar**: There are concerns about the potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season. After the macro - sentiment is realized, attention should be paid to the upward pressure. It is advisable to participate in the out - of - the - money accumulative put option strategy [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The off - season effect of the industry is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. Similarly, attention should be paid to the upward pressure on prices after the macro - sentiment is realized [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Near - month production is restricted, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there is still an upward opportunity for far - month contracts [1]. - **Sulfur**: The direct demand is good, and there is cost support, but the supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the sector is under pressure, with limited price rebound space [1]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coking coal is struggling near the previous high, repeatedly testing the support. The high point of the coke futures price has included the expectation of five rounds of price increases, but the actual three - round price increase has been delayed, and the game is intense. Based on the tight supply, coke and coking coal are relatively strong, but considering the weakening of steel prices and the potential weakening of steel demand in November, the futures prices of coke and coking coal are likely to return to the oscillating range after a false breakout. In the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see, and in the long - term, it is still advisable to go long at low prices. Industrial customers can consider selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: In the short term, palm oil still faces the dual pressures of seasonal production increase and weak exports. However, starting from November, Malaysia enters the traditional production - reduction cycle. If export data improve significantly, it may trigger a staged rebound [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: According to the China - US negotiation agreement, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans in the next two months, which may bring a loose expectation for soybean oil in the fourth quarter, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The actual impact needs to be observed [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The meeting between Chinese and Canadian leaders has brought the expectation of Sino - Canadian relaxation, and the bumper harvest of Canadian rapeseed has put pressure on the futures price [1]. - **Cotton**: Although the production capacity in Xinjiang is expanding, the production capacity in the inland may decrease marginally. At the same time, due to the thinning of spinning profits in Xinjiang, the operating rate may also be affected. The contradiction between the expansion of Xinjiang's production capacity and the reduction of spinning profits makes the cotton demand in the new year highly uncertain. The current futures price has fully priced in the selling pressure of new crops, and the downward space is limited, but under the background of a record - high production of new crops, the basis and futures price may continue to be under pressure [1]. - **Sugar**: Typhoons before and after the National Day have had an adverse impact on the sugar - cane harvest and production in South China. There is a seasonal upward impetus for sugar prices in the short term. In the medium - term, considering the good growth of sugar cane this year, the rebound space after the new - sugar listing is expected to be limited [1]. - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean purchase and crushing profit is poor, and the domestic futures price is undervalued. With the expectation of China's purchase of US soybeans, the import cost of US soybeans is expected to rise, and the domestic futures price is expected to rebound in the short term to repair the crushing profit. However, the current loose supply of domestic soybean - meal spot and the expected loose global soybean supply in the long - term limit the rebound height [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The current trading logic of paper pulp is related to the trading of old warehouse receipts for the November contract. With weak downstream demand, the futures price is under great pressure. It is recommended to conduct a reverse spread between the November and January contracts [1]. - **Log**: The fundamentals of logs have declined, but the spot price is firm. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Live Pigs**: In the past half - month, the spot price has risen alternately in the north and south due to secondary fattening, frozen - product storage, and reluctance to sell, which has postponed the production capacity. There is still pressure on the November slaughter. In the short term, the futures price is at the same level as the spot price, and the futures price will follow the spot price to stabilize and then weaken [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the short - term geopolitical speculation has cooled down, and the suspension of some China - US trade - tariff policies has eased market sentiment [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The demand for the 14th Five - Year Plan construction rush is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Venezuelan crude oil is sufficient. The profit of asphalt is high [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong support from raw - material costs, the mid - stream inventory is continuously decreasing, and the commodity - market atmosphere is positive [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The decline of crude - oil prices has reduced the cost support of butadiene, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose. High - production and high - inventory have not suppressed the price, and the mainstream supply price has been continuously reduced [1]. - **PTA**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The gasoline cracking price has risen above $15, prompting refineries to increase gasoline production and reduce the feed of aromatic - hydrocarbon units. Overseas device failures and the decline of the operating load of some domestic reforming units, as well as the rotation inspection of large domestic PTA devices, have led to a decline in domestic PTA production [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The decline of crude - oil prices has led to a decline in ethylene - glycol prices, while the rise of coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The "Golden September and Silver October" of the polyester industry is coming to an end, and the domestic demand has not significantly declined [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The rebound of PTA prices has strengthened the basis of short - fiber. Short - fiber prices continue to fluctuate closely with costs [1]. - **Styrene**: The Asian benzene price is still weak, the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have declined, the arbitrage window from Northeast Asia to the US is still closed, the profit of domestic styrene has decreased, the number of styrene - device overhauls has gradually increased, and crude - oil prices have continued to fall [1]. - **Urea**: The export sentiment has eased slightly, and the limited domestic demand restricts the upward space. There is support from anti - involution and cost - end factors [1]. - **PE**: Under high - supply, the inventory pressure is large, the intensity of overhauls has weakened, and the downstream demand is slowly increasing, but the peak season is not prosperous [1]. - **PP**: The support from overhauls is limited, and the new - device production has increased the supply pressure. The downstream improvement is less than expected, and the futures price has returned to the fundamentals, showing a weak - oscillating trend [1]. - **PVC**: The overhauls have decreased compared with the previous period, and the new production capacity has been released, increasing the supply pressure. The rise of coal prices has strengthened the cost support of PVC [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Many alumina projects in Guangxi are planned to be put into production, the subsequent concentration of overhauls will decrease, the high - concentration caustic soda is at a negative premium, the absolute price is low, and the near - month warehouse receipts are limited, so there is a risk of short - squeeze [1]. - **LPG**: The international oil - gas fundamentals are continuously loose, the CP/FEI prices have weakened, the valuation of the domestic LPG futures price has been repaired, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable due to short - term cooling and chemical rigid demand [1]. Others - **Container Shipping (European Route)**: The positive macro - sentiment has been gradually digested, the expectation of price increases in the peak season has been priced in advance, and the shipping capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].