地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 8 月 25 日 热点品种 期市综述 截止 8 月 25 日收盘，国内期货主力合约大面积飘红，焦煤涨超 6%，燃料油涨超 5%，焦炭涨超 4%，BR 橡胶、集运欧线、铁矿石、玻璃、20 号胶涨超 2%；跌幅方 面，胶合板跌超 1%，碳酸锂、苯乙烯小幅下跌。沪深 300 股指期 ...

| 日度黄路参考 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 当前市场流动性仍然充裕,A股目成交额突破至2万亿以上,沪指 | | | | 突破"924"前高，内外利好因素下市场情绪尚好,股指或继续偏 | 股指 | 强运行。 | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债 | 震荡 | 宏观金融的 | 空间。 | | | | 美联储主席表态偏鸽,提振9月降息预期,贵金属强势反弹。 | 看多 | 真金 | 美联储主席表态偏鸽,提振9月降息预期,贵金属强势反弹,且白 | 白銀 | 看彩 | | | 银弹性强于黄金。 | 美联储主席表态偏鸽,提振美联储降息预期,短期铜价偏强运行 | 看多 | 월미 | | | | | 美联储降息预期提升,但消费淡季下,国内铝下游需求承压,铝 | 40 | 价震荡运行。 | | | | | | 氧化铝产量及库存双增,基本面仍偏弱,但几内亚正值雨季,铝 | 土矿发运量下滑,叠加电解铝利润高企、反内卷叙事犹 ...

8月25日，国内商品期货收盘，主力合约多数收涨，焦煤涨超6%，燃料油涨超5%，焦炭涨超4%，BR橡 胶、集运欧线、铁矿石、玻璃涨超2%，沪银、纯碱、锰硅、氧化铝、液化气涨超1%。跌幅方面，碳酸 锂、苯乙烯、尿素小幅下跌。 ...

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures experienced widespread declines on August 14, with coking coal dropping over 6% and coke falling over 4% [1] - Polysilicon decreased by more than 3%, while iron ore fell nearly 3% [1] - Other commodities such as rapeseed oil, alumina, and silicon manganese saw declines exceeding 2%, and methanol, paraxylene, rebar, BR rubber, crude oil, urea, and live pigs dropped over 1% [1] Group 2 - On the upside, caustic soda increased by more than 1%, and silver futures rose nearly 1% [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals in July remained resilient. The Politburo meeting on July 30 set the tone for the second - half economic work, emphasizing continuous and timely efforts in macro - policies, with a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy [2]. - The July economic data globally showed resilience. China's official manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.3, and the new order index fell to 49.4, while the non - manufacturing sector remained in expansion. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, better than expected. The CPI was flat year - on - year, and the decline in PPI narrowed [2]. - In the US, the July non - farm payroll data was below expectations, but the service PMI improved significantly. The "Great Beauty" Act may support subsequent consumption. Attention should be paid to the impact of the "reciprocal tariff" and the subsequent demand situation [2]. - For commodities, domestic supply - side is most sensitive in the black and new - energy metal sectors. Energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation expectations. The black sector is still dragged by downstream demand expectations, and the supply constraint in the non - ferrous sector persists. The energy supply is expected to be relatively loose in the medium - term [3]. - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to go long on industrial products at low prices [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Global economic data in July was resilient. China's manufacturing PMI declined, but exports were strong. The US had mixed economic data. The "reciprocal tariff" policy may affect external - demand - sensitive commodities. After the July interest - rate meeting, there was uncertainty about the Fed's September interest - rate decision [2]. Commodity Analysis - Different commodity sectors have different situations. The black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to domestic supply - side. The energy and non - ferrous sectors benefit from overseas inflation. The energy supply is expected to be loose with OPEC+ increasing production. The "anti - involution" space in some chemical products is worthy of attention. Agricultural products have limited short - term fluctuations [3]. Strategy - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is to buy industrial products at low prices [4]. Market Performance - On August 11, the A - share market rose, with most stocks up and a trading volume of about 1.85 trillion. Some commodities like industrial silicon and红枣 rose, while others like eggs and container shipping to Europe declined. Bond yields increased, and spot gold dropped by over 1.4% [5]. Important News - Fed Governor Bowman supports three interest - rate cuts this year and will host a community bank meeting on October 9. US President Trump will meet with Russian President Putin on August 15 to discuss the Ukraine crisis, and the White House is considering inviting Ukrainian President Zelensky [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Stock Index, Gold, Soybean Oil [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Carbonate Lithium, Corn (01 Contract), LPG [1] - **Sideways**: Treasury Bonds, Silver, Alumina, Polycrystalline Silicon, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coke, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton (01 Contract), Sugar, Corn (09 Contract), Soybeans (01 Contract), Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Urea, PVC, Caustic Soda, Container Shipping (European Line) [1] Core Viewpoints - The stock index has resumed a relatively strong trend after short - term "good news exhaustion" trading, with valuation support. It is advisable to go long on the stock index this week [1]. - The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Gold prices are expected to remain strong due to rising interest rate cut expectations [1]. - Base metals in the non - ferrous sector are generally under pressure due to weak macro - sentiment and other factors [1]. - Agricultural products show different trends, with some like soybean oil expected to rise and others like corn showing mixed outlooks [1]. - Energy and chemical products are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors, presenting various trends [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: After short - term "good news exhaustion" trading, it has resumed a strong trend. The current valuation has support, and the ERP of CSI 300 is at a historical high. It is recommended to go long this week [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risk warning from the central bank suppresses the upward space [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Rising interest rate cut expectations are expected to keep the price strong [1]. - **Silver**: Follows gold but may be mainly driven by fundamentals and is expected to fluctuate [1]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: US non - farm data is weak, and the ISM manufacturing index has declined. With obvious demand off - season characteristics, the price may further correct [1]. - **Aluminum**: Weak macro - sentiment and pressured downstream demand lead to a weak price trend [1]. - **Alumina**: Although news boosts the price, the increase in production and inventory leads to a weak fundamental situation, and the price fluctuates [1]. - **Zinc**: Short - term upward pressure is large due to inventory accumulation and supply recovery, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]. - **Nickel**: US non - farm data slows down, increasing overseas recession concerns. The demand side performs poorly, and the price fluctuates weakly in the short term. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations and high - selling hedging opportunities [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Affected by macro factors in the short term, it is recommended to sell high and hedge, and pay attention to spot - futures positive arbitrage opportunities [1]. - **Tin**: It returns to fundamental trading in the short term, and the driving force is limited under the weak supply - demand pattern [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: There are signs of sporadic resumption of production in the southwest, and there are expectations of production cuts in polycrystalline silicon. The policy corrects the anti - involution statement, and the price is bearish [1]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: There are expectations of photovoltaic supply - side reform, high market sentiment, and policy correction of anti - involution statement, and the price fluctuates [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Resource - end disturbances are frequent, short - term downstream replenishment is large but the subsequent space is limited, and the policy corrects the anti - involution statement, and the price is bearish [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Weak exports from Malaysia in July and reduced Indian imports may bring short - term pressure, but the downside support is strong, and it is advisable to wait and see [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Tightening Sino - US relations support the price from the cost side of imported soybeans, and exports to India raise the valuation center, which is expected to rise to repair the soybean - palm oil price spread [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to buy low and sell high. Reduced rapeseed production may benefit the far - month market, and it is advisable to wait for long - entry opportunities [1]. - **Cotton**: The short - term increase in positions is driven by the near - month squeeze logic. The height of the 01 contract is limited, and it is necessary to pay attention to the time window at the end of July and early August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas [1]. - **Sugar**: It is running strongly, with the bottom - divergence rebound of raw sugar and peak - season demand, but the height is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the range of 5600 - 6000 [1]. - **Corn**: The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate due to slow inventory depletion in the south port, weak downstream demand, and high warehouse receipt pressure. The 01 contract is bearish due to autumn harvest pressure and reduced planting costs [1]. - **Soybeans**: The US market has no weather premium, and Sino - US trade policies have not eased, so the US soybeans are under pressure, but the downside space is limited. The domestic far - month has de - stocking expectations, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions rise due to US threats of sanctions against Russia, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and short - term strong consumption in Europe and the US provides support [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, affected by geopolitical and consumption factors [1]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. Cost disturbances and demand recovery balance each other, with limited fluctuations [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Short - term rainfall in the production area decreases, inventory depletion is slow, and the commodity market sentiment cools down [1]. - **BR Rubber**: The cost - end support of butadiene is expected to weaken, downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the spot price is lowered. The disk is expected to consolidate, and it is necessary to pay attention to Sino - US tariff policies and butadiene arrivals in East China [1]. - **PTA**: Supply has shrunk, the crude oil price is strong, the polyester downstream load has decreased, the port inventory has slightly decreased, and the polyester replenishment willingness is low [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal prices have risen slightly, the commodity sentiment has weakened, the overseas ethylene glycol device maintenance has been postponed, the supply has shrunk, and the market expects less future arrivals [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse receipt registration volume is small, factory maintenance has increased, and the cost follows closely under high basis conditions [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure benzene price has slightly declined, styrene shipments are active, the device load has increased, and the basis has significantly weakened [1]. - **Urea**: There are supply contraction expectations, domestic demand has entered the off - season, the macro - sentiment has subsided, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]. - **PVC**: The macro - sentiment has subsided, maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased. The disk fluctuates strongly [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is coming to an end, the spot price has fallen to a low level, and the premium of caustic soda delivery substitutes has increased [1]. - **LPG**: Crude oil support is insufficient, the international fundamentals are loose, port propane inventory is high, the CP price in August has dropped significantly, the combustion demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the chemical demand is average. The domestic LPG price is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to tariff policy adjustments [1]. Others - **Container Shipping (European Line)**: There are signs that the freight rate has peaked, European ports are still congested, and there are many additional ships in August [1].

Group 1 - The prices of soda ash and apples have dropped over 3% [1] - The prices of coking coal, No. 20 rubber, and BR rubber have decreased by more than 2% [1] - The prices of polysilicon and silicon iron have increased by over 3% [1] Group 2 - The prices of manganese silicon, LU fuel oil, caustic soda, industrial silicon, and hot-rolled steel have risen by more than 2% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Lithium carbonate, PTA, Ethylene glycol, PP, PVC [1][2] - **Bearish**: Alumina, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Coke, Corn (C01), PVC, Caustic soda, LPG [1][2] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index futures, Bond futures, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Manganese silicon, Silicon iron, Glass, Soda ash, Palm oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn (C09), Soybean meal (MO9), Pulp, Logs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, Natural rubber, BR rubber, Urea, PE [1][2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market requires new themes and bullish sentiment to drive it after continuous strong rallies. The short - term upward speed of stock index futures may slow down. Attention should be paid to the July Politburo meeting communique, the third round of China - US trade consultations, and the Fed's interest - rate decisions. [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest - rate risks suppresses the upside space. [1] - Although the outlook for tariff progress is positive, market uncertainties remain, and with the Fed's expected interest rate cut in September, gold prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. [1] 3. Summary by Categories Macro - financial - **Stock index futures**: After continuous rallies, the short - term upward speed may slow down. Adjustment and long - position building are the main strategies. Pay attention to the July Politburo meeting communique and the third round of China - US trade consultations. [1] - **Bond futures**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank's short - term warning on interest - rate risks suppresses the upside space. [1] Precious metals - **Gold**: Despite positive tariff progress expectations, market uncertainties and the Fed's possible September interest - rate cut keep the price oscillating in the short term. [1] - **Silver**: It may return to the fundamental logic and oscillate. [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Short - term market sentiment is optimistic, but high prices suppress downstream demand, so the price may oscillate. [1] - **Aluminum**: Rising electrolytic aluminum prices suppress downstream demand, and the price may oscillate weakly. [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term prices are macro - dominated and widely oscillating. There is a long - term surplus pressure on primary nickel. It is advisable to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities at high prices. [1] - **Stainless steel**: Futures are macro - dominated in the short term. Wait and see, look for short - selling opportunities at high prices and cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities. [1] - **Tin**: It returns to fundamental trading in the short term, with limited driving forces due to weak supply and demand. [1] Industrial metals - **Steel products (e.g., rebar, hot - rolled coil)**: Market sentiment cools, and capital behavior may cause large fluctuations. [1] - **Iron ore**: Market sentiment recedes, and prices fluctuate sharply. [1] - **Manganese silicon, silicon iron**: Market sentiment recedes, and prices fluctuate sharply. [1] Chemicals - **PTA**: Supply contracts, but crude oil prices are strong. Polyester downstream load remains high, and there is a slight inventory reduction at ports. [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Coal prices rise slightly, commodity sentiment is strong, overseas device maintenance is extended, and supply contracts. [1] - **Benzene ethylene**: Pure benzene prices fall slightly, device load rises, and the basis weakens significantly. [1] - **Urea**: Supply contraction is expected, and domestic demand enters the off - season. [1] - **PE**: Macro sentiment fades, returning to fundamentals. There are many maintenance activities, and demand is mainly for rigid needs, with prices oscillating weakly. [1] - **PP**: Maintenance support is limited, orders are for rigid needs, and the "anti - involution" sentiment drives the price to oscillate strongly. [1] - **PVC**: Macro sentiment fades, returning to fundamentals. Maintenance decreases, downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and supply pressure rises. [2] - **Caustic soda**: Maintenance is nearly over, spot prices are at a low level, and the premium of delivery substitutes increases. [2] - **LPG**: Crude oil support is insufficient, international fundamentals are loose, port propane inventory is high, and it is in the seasonal off - season for combustion demand. [2] Agricultural products - **Palm oil**: The good rate of US soybeans is lowered, policies are negative for feed raw materials, and funds tend to be long on oil and short on meal. It is short - term strong, and the previous high pressure should be observed. [1] - **Cotton**: The near - month contract is driven by short - squeeze logic, and the upside of the 01 contract is limited. Pay attention to the time window from late July to early August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas. [1] - **Sugar**: It is running strongly, driven by the rebound of raw sugar and peak - season demand, but the upside is limited. Pay attention to the 5600 - 6000 range. [1] - **Corn**: The old - crop supply - demand is tightening, supporting the C09 contract, but the short - term market has sufficient grain circulation. The new - crop planting cost is lower, and the C01 contract is over - valued. It is advisable to short C01 at high prices. [1] - **Soybean meal**: The near - month contract is in the inventory - building cycle, and the basis is under pressure. The MO9 contract is expected to oscillate, and the MO1 contract can be bought on dips based on the expected increase in import costs. [1] - **Paper pulp**: It has rebounded significantly due to the strong commodity sentiment. The basis of broad - leaf pulp has weakened to - 1400 yuan/ton, and further chasing of long positions is not recommended. [1] - **Log futures**: Affected by the macro environment, it is likely to decline on Monday after many commodities fell on Friday night. [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has a minimal actual impact on rubber, with only short - term emotional disturbances. The conflict is likely a military action, and the probability of further expansion is low as Thailand's military power far exceeds Cambodia's, and the conflict is near China [2]. - The energy - chemical sector is affected by market sentiment, with prices rising and then falling. Different varieties have different market trends and investment strategies based on fundamentals and technical analysis [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - Logic: In the short term, low inventory and strong demand support the price during the consumption peak season, but the peak of US crude oil processing volume and refinery operation has passed, and the mid - term pressure will gradually emerge with OPEC+ production increase [4][5]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, short - term downward structure on the hourly level. Today, it increased in volume and rebounded to test the short - term pressure at 510, but did not break through effectively [5]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle, and move the stop - loss up to today's high of 511 [5]. (2) Styrene (EB) - Logic: Supply and operation are at a high level, new production capacity is to be put into operation, demand is weak, and inventory pressure is high. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled [9]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level, oscillating today, with the support at 7375 still holding [9]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [9]. (3) Rubber - Logic: Rainfall and typhoon speculation in Hainan support the short - term spot price, and the warm macro - commodity sentiment also helps. However, the mid - term supply will increase while demand remains weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [12]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It rose today and then declined in the late session, with strong pressure at 15300 [12]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle for short - selling opportunities after the support is broken [12]. (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Logic: The fundamentals are poor. High tire inventory leads to low semi - steel tire operation rate, high supply and production result in slow inventory reduction, and the cost will decline with the commissioning of butadiene plants in the second half of the year. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled [16]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It increased in volume and may return to the upward trend, with support at 11800 [16]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle for short - selling opportunities after the support is broken [16]. (5) PX - Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak, summer demand is weakening, polyester production is decreasing, demand expectations are pessimistic, and supply is recovering. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [20]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level, increased in volume and reversed the short - term trend, with support at 6835 [20]. - Strategy: Stop the short - position loss and wait and see on the hourly cycle [20]. (6) PTA - Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak. Summer demand is weakening, polyester production is decreasing, demand expectations are pessimistic, and supply is at a medium level. The short - term fundamentals are weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [23]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term downward structure on the hourly level, increased in volume and tested the short - term pressure at 4850 [23]. - Strategy: Hold short positions on the hourly cycle [23]. (7) PP - Logic: The cost of crude oil is weak. New plants are planned to be put into operation from July to August, demand is weak in the off - season, and downstream operation is low. Supply and demand are weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [25]. - Technical Analysis: Short - term upward structure on the hourly level, increased in volume and continued to be strong, with support at 7130 [25]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [25]. (8) Methanol - Logic: Supply operation has declined but is still at a high level year - on - year. Downstream demand is average, and inventory is continuously increasing. The fundamentals are weak, the market's bullish sentiment has cooled, and it did not follow the rise of coking coal [27]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term downward/oscillating structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It decreased in volume and rose, with the short - term support moved up to 2455 [27]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [27]. (9) PVC - Logic: The short - term strong sentiment of coal pushes up the cost of chlor - alkali production, supporting the PVC price in the short term. However, demand is still weak, supply operation is at a high level, and inventory is continuously increasing. The fundamentals are still weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [30]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term upward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It decreased in volume, rose, and then declined with a long upper shadow in the late session. Pay attention to whether a double - top is formed on the hourly line, with support at 5095 [30]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [30]. (10) Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Logic: Low port inventory and recent market sentiment support the price in the short term. Pay attention to the time when inventory turns to accumulation under the weak supply - demand expectation. The market's bullish sentiment has cooled [34]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, short - term upward structure on the hourly level. It increased in volume and rose, with support at 4440 [35]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [35]. (11) Plastic - Logic: Both the operation of production facilities and downstream operation are at a low level compared to the same period. However, previously shut - down facilities will gradually resume operation, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. The mid - term supply - demand expectation is weak, and the market's bullish sentiment has cooled [37]. - Technical Analysis: Mid - term oscillating/downward structure on the daily level, upward structure on the hourly level. It decreased in volume and rose, with support at 7310 [37]. - Strategy: Wait and see on the hourly cycle [37].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Silver, Copper, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Carbonate Lithium, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, PVC, Caustic Soda, Short Fiber, Styrene [1][2] - **Bearish**: None - **Sideways**: Treasury Bonds, Aluminum, Stainless Steel, Tin, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Paper Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, Natural Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, PE, PP, LPG, Shipping [1][2] Core Views - The recent stock index has shown obvious dullness to negative news, with strong market trading volume and sentiment. In the short term, the stock index is expected to run strongly. - The "asset shortage" situation and the "national team" support have increased the market's willingness to allocate equity assets. The "anti - involution" and real - estate policy expectations have boosted market sentiment. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space. - Market uncertainties still exist, and the gold price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. - The domestic "anti - involution" theme has fermented, and the macro - sentiment has improved, which has a positive impact on various commodities. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term central - bank warnings limit the upside [1]. - **Gold**: Market uncertainties lead to short - term strong - side fluctuations [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Silver**: Shows short - term resilience, but caution is needed in the medium term [1]. - **Copper**: Domestic "anti - involution" theme drives a strong trend [1]. - **Aluminum**: The "anti - involution" theme and high prices create a volatile situation [1]. - **Alumina**: The "anti - involution" theme and high electrolytic - aluminum profits drive price increases [1]. - **Zinc**: The "anti - involution" and other factors lead to a continuous upward trend [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term macro - factors dominate, with a strong - side fluctuation, but long - term oversupply pressure exists [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Macro - sentiment boosts prices, and attention should be paid to raw - material changes and steel - mill production [1]. - **Tin**: Macro - sentiment and inventory reduction support price increases [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Positive factors such as sporadic resumption of production and market sentiment [1]. - **Polysilicon**: Expectations of photovoltaic supply - side reform and high market sentiment [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Resource disturbances, short - term large replenishment, and high market sentiment [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil**: Strong furnace materials provide valuation support [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Positive commodity sentiment, but the fundamentals are marginally weakening [1]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Short - term market sentiment drives prices up [1]. Building Materials - **Glass**: Sentiment dominates, and supply - disturbance expectations support prices [1]. - **Soda Ash**: Short - term supply - disturbance trading, weak fundamentals, but improved sentiment [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: International demand growth expectations, but there are risks from increased production and weak exports [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the inventory - accumulation cycle, limited upside for M09 and a wait - for - callback - to - buy strategy for M01 [1]. - **Corn**: Old - crop supply - demand tightness supports CO9, but new - crop C01 is recommended to be shorted at high prices [1]. - **Cotton**: Near - month squeeze logic dominates, with limited upside for the 01 contract [1]. - **Sugar**: Strong operation, but limited upside, with attention to the 5600 - 6000 range [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Rebound due to positive commodity sentiment, but not recommended to chase the rise [1]. - **Logs**: The trading logic may shift to the 09 contract, and not recommended to chase after a large increase [1]. - **Pigs**: Stable futures due to continuous inventory repair and limited short - term spot decline [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: Return to supply - demand logic after geopolitical cooling, with OPEC+ over - expected production increase and short - term consumption support [1]. - **Asphalt**: Cost - end drag and demand - supply balance lead to fluctuations [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: Rain disturbances in production areas, slow inventory reduction, and positive sentiment [1]. - **PTA**: Supply contraction, high polyester downstream load, and limited port de - stocking [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Coal - price increase, supply contraction, and positive market expectations [1]. - **Short Fiber**: Low warehouse - receipt registration and increased factory maintenance [1]. - **Styrene**: Falling pure - benzene price, rising device load, and weakening basis [1]. - **Urea**: Supply - contraction expectations and domestic demand off - season [1]. - **PE**: Return to fundamentals after macro - sentiment fades, with more maintenance and weak demand [1]. - **PP**: "Anti - involution" theme and market sentiment drive prices up [1]. - **PVC**: Rising prices despite increased supply pressure in the off - season [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: End of maintenance, low - price spot, and positive sentiment [2]. - **LPG**: Weak operation due to insufficient crude - oil support, high inventory, and seasonal factors [2]. - **Shipping**: A pattern of stable reality and weak expectations, with an expected peak in mid - July and a subsequent decline [2].