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地缘局势紧张,对A股、港股影响边际递减|市场观察
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-06-16 06:00
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran have led to increased volatility in global markets, but the impact on China's domestic energy supply is limited due to diversified energy channels [1][2] - The short-term rise in oil and gold prices may elevate inflation expectations, but the marginal impact on the market is decreasing due to China's diversified energy supply [1][2] - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are primarily influenced by domestic structural issues rather than external geopolitical events, with investors focusing more on domestic macroeconomic data and corporate earnings [2][3] Group 2 - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are expected to push up international oil prices, benefiting energy stocks but increasing costs for energy-intensive industries [2] - The current market's sensitivity to single geopolitical events is decreasing, with domestic economic policies and global economic recovery having a more significant impact on A-share and Hong Kong markets [2][3] - Historical patterns suggest that the region's conflicts have a persistent nature, but the current escalation is notable, requiring ongoing monitoring of its evolution [3]