能源投机泡沫
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一年暴涨超1000%!零营收但估值超260亿美元?最严重的AI泡沫其实是核能股!
美股IPO· 2025-10-15 12:32
Core Viewpoint - The energy sector is experiencing a speculative bubble driven by AI demand, with several revenue-less energy companies seeing their total market value soar to over $45 billion, primarily based on investor bets that tech giants will purchase their yet-to-be-built power generation facilities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - A notable example of this trend is Oklo, a nuclear startup supported by OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman, whose stock price has surged approximately eightfold this year, reaching a market value of $26 billion, making it the largest revenue-less publicly traded company in the U.S. over the past 12 months [3]. - Another revenue-less company, Fermi, had a valuation of around $19 billion on its listing day earlier this month, currently maintaining a market value exceeding $17 billion, with historical data indicating only two other revenue-less companies have surpassed this valuation on their listing day [5]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Risks - The speculative wave highlights extreme optimism regarding future energy demand driven by AI, contrasting sharply with established tech giants that have substantial profits and can withstand industry fluctuations; these energy startups have little room for error and face significant risks if the AI hype diminishes [7]. - The investment frenzy is not limited to nuclear energy; Fermi, backed by former U.S. Energy Secretary Rick Perry, plans to build 11 gigawatts (GW) of power capacity, equivalent to the total installed capacity of New Mexico, yet has only secured natural gas equipment to meet 5% of its target and lacks binding customer contracts [11]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - The high valuations of these speculative energy companies may be driven by the already inflated valuations of profitable companies, such as Bloom Energy, which has seen its stock rise over 400% this year with a forward P/E ratio of 133, and Centrus Energy with a forward P/E ratio of 99 [12]. - Historical precedents, such as the 2020 IPOs of revenue-less electric vehicle startups like Nikola and Fisker, suggest that many similar companies may ultimately fail, raising concerns about the sustainability of current valuations in the energy sector [12].