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能源消费结构深层变革,电力结构转型率先垂范
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 00:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - From 2020 - 2024, due to the pandemic, global energy consumption declined in 2020 and grew from 2021 - 2024. Renewable energy (excluding hydropower) consumption increased rapidly, substituting fossil energy. The proportion of renewable energy in global primary energy consumption rose from about 6% in 2020 to about 9% in 2024. The proportions of hydropower and nuclear power remained stable at around 7% and 4% respectively. The proportion of oil remained at around 31%, while that of natural gas dropped from about 25% to about 23%, and coal from about 27% to about 26% [3]. - China's primary energy consumption structure changed more significantly than the global average, with a higher growth in total energy consumption and a more prominent renewable energy substitution rate. The proportion of renewable energy in China's primary energy consumption increased from about 6% in 2020 to about 11% in 2024. Nuclear power accounted for about 2%, and hydropower decreased from about 8% to about 7%. Coal dropped from about 56% to about 52%, oil from about 20% to about 18%, and natural gas increased from about 8% to about 9% [4]. - In the future, the global energy structure transformation path is clear, but there are many uncertainties. Renewable energy will continue to develop, and nuclear energy will grow slowly. Global coal consumption is likely to peak before 2030 and decline after 2035. Oil and natural gas consumption will maintain slight growth. China's energy consumption structure adjustment may be faster than the global average. Chinese coal - fired power generation's coal consumption peaked in 2025, coal consumption may enter a plateau or decline, oil consumption will gradually decrease, natural gas will grow, and nuclear energy will have moderate growth. Renewable energy will be the main force in China's energy transformation [5][6]. - Global electricity energy consumption has changed better than primary energy consumption. Although fossil - fuel power generation still dominates, renewable energy power generation such as wind and solar is growing rapidly and has become the second - largest power generation source. China's power structure reform is faster. In 2025, fossil - fuel power generation peaked, and the proportion of wind and solar power is increasing. In the future, by 2050, global power generation will double compared to 2025, with solar being the largest growth driver and wind being the second. Non - fossil energy power generation will dominate the global power market around 2035, and renewable energy will account for half of the market by 2050. In China, power generation will maintain medium - to - high - speed growth in the next decade, with 80% of the new power generation coming from wind and solar by 2030 [6][7]. - The change in power generation mode is based on the change in installed capacity. Currently, the most significant change in global power generation installed capacity is in wind and solar, with China leading in both growth and scale. From 2020 - 2024, the new installed capacity of solar reached 1272GW, a 210% increase compared to 2015 - 2019, and wind reached 485GW, a 73% increase. China accounted for about 43% of the global new installed capacity of both solar and wind. In the future, global renewable energy power generation's new installed capacity will continue to grow. In China, the installed capacity of renewable energy will also grow rapidly, and by 2035, the combined installed capacity of wind and solar will reach 3.6 billion kilowatts [8][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Preface - Facing global warming caused by industrialization, countries aim to reduce emissions. However, the actual effect of global energy conservation and emission reduction in the past decade is not satisfactory. On one hand, the growth of emerging economies leads to increased energy consumption, and the economy of renewable energy is still inferior to fossil energy. On the other hand, geopolitical instability makes countries focus on fossil energy supply stability [17]. 2. Fossil Energy Still Dominates, and China's Energy Consumption Transformation Accelerates - Globally from 2020 - 2024, renewable energy (excluding hydropower) consumption increased rapidly and substituted fossil energy, while hydropower and nuclear power development was slow, and their proportions remained stable. Oil's proportion remained at around 31%, natural gas dropped from about 25% to about 23%, and coal from about 27% to about 26% [18]. - China's energy consumption structure changed more significantly. Renewable energy accounted for about 11% in 2024, up from about 6% in 2020. Nuclear power accounted for about 2%, and hydropower decreased from about 8% to about 7%. Coal dropped from about 56% to about 52%, oil from about 20% to about 18%, and natural gas increased from about 8% to about 9% [38][46]. 3. The Path of Energy Structure Transformation is Uncertain, and China Continues to Accelerate the Transformation - In the future, global renewable energy will continue to develop, and nuclear energy will grow slowly. Global coal consumption is likely to peak before 2030 and decline after 2035. Oil and natural gas consumption will maintain slight growth [55]. - China's energy consumption structure adjustment may be faster. Coal consumption may enter a plateau or decline, oil consumption will decrease, natural gas will grow, and nuclear energy will have moderate growth. Renewable energy will be the main force in China's energy transformation [57]. 4. Global Power Structure Reform is Remarkable, and the Development Paths of China, the US, and Europe are Different - The global power industry's energy consumption change is better than that of primary energy. From 2020 - 2024, global power generation grew at an average rate of over 3%, with wind power growing at over 15% and solar power approaching 40%. Fossil - fuel power generation's proportion decreased by 4.5%, and renewable energy power generation increased [61][62]. - In Europe, as of Q3 2025, fossil - fuel power generation accounted for about 34%, and renewable energy power generation increased. Europe is reducing fossil - fuel power generation and increasing renewable energy [74]. - In the US, as of Q3 2025, fossil - fuel power generation accounted for about 58%. The US mainly uses gas - fired power, and data center construction has promoted the spread of solar power [85][87]. - China's power structure reform is faster. As of Q3 2025, fossil - fuel power generation accounted for less than 60%. Wind and solar power are growing rapidly, and fossil - fuel power generation will change its role in the power market [94]. 5. Green Energy Power Generation is Expected to Explode, and China will Take the Lead in Completing Power Reform - By 2050, global power generation will double compared to 2025, with solar and wind being the main growth drivers. Non - fossil energy power generation will dominate around 2035, and renewable energy will account for half of the market by 2050 [107]. - In the next decade, China's power generation will maintain medium - to - high - speed growth. After coal - fired power generation peaks, new power generation will come from non - fossil energy, with 80% from wind and solar by 2030 [109]. 6. New Solar PV Installed Capacity Ranks First, and China Leads in Wind and Solar Installed Capacity - From 2020 - 2024, the new installed capacity of solar reached 1272GW, a 210% increase compared to 2015 - 2019, and wind reached 485GW, a 73% increase. China accounted for about 43% of the global new installed capacity of both solar and wind [113][123]. - In China, the new installed capacity mainly concentrated on wind, solar, and thermal power in the past five years. Solar had the fastest growth, followed by wind, accounting for 70% - 80% of the new capacity. Currently, wind and solar account for about 47% of the installed capacity, thermal power about 40%, and hydropower about 12% [129]. 7. Global Green Power Installed Capacity Increases Vigorously, and China's Wind Power Installed Capacity is Expected to Accelerate - In the future, global renewable energy power generation's new installed capacity will continue to grow. The average new annual installed capacity of solar will be 540GW, wind 150GW, and coal - fired power about 55GW in the next decade [139]. - In China, the installed capacity of renewable energy will grow rapidly. By 2035, the combined installed capacity of wind and solar will reach 3.6 billion kilowatts, with wind growing faster. Distributed solar will also grow explosively. In the short term, thermal power installed capacity still has growth demand [141]. 8. Summary - Global energy consumption and power supply structures need in - depth transformation, and China is at the forefront. However, the reform path is uncertain due to power demand growth and the stability requirements of the power market. Power market transformation requires the cooperation of the power grid, energy storage, and end - users [146].