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中国汽研朱云尧:汽车价值重心正向软件、数据和运营服务转移
Bei Ke Cai Jing· 2025-07-10 08:23
Core Viewpoint - The automotive industry in China is undergoing a four-stage evolution, with a significant shift towards smart connected vehicles expected post-2025, leading to a rapid development of new ecosystems and a focus on software, data, and operational services [1][7]. Group 1: Industry Evolution - The automotive industry is predicted to experience a major transformation, with the smart connected vehicle explosion phase starting after 2025, where the value focus will shift towards software, data, and operational services [1][7]. - By 2028, China's automotive market share is expected to reach 45% of the global market [1][7]. - The industry will transition from a linear production relationship to a networked one, with data assets and information technology becoming key production factors [8]. Group 2: Technological Transformation - The future of the automotive industry is closely tied to three revolutions: energy, intelligence, and connectivity, which will drive the transition from energy-consuming tools to energy storage carriers and intelligent terminals [3]. - By 2025, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is expected to reach 50%, with sales around 16.5 million units [3]. - The automotive technology will improve across six layers: mechanical structure, energy supply, electrical architecture, operating system, software application, and cloud data [3][4]. Group 3: Software and Data Ecosystem - The software application layer is becoming a key area of innovation, with the software value in vehicles currently accounting for 10%-30%, projected to rise to 60% in the future [5]. - The automotive industry has entered a data-defined era since 2022, where computing power and data will be the core of competition in intelligent driving [6]. - The software system ecosystem will act as the "brain" of smart connected vehicles, integrating with smart traffic and smart cities to gather vast amounts of data [10]. Group 4: Energy and Digital Operation Ecosystem - The energy system ecosystem is expected to give rise to industry giants, with a new energy system scale projected to reach several trillion yuan by 2030 [9][10]. - The digital operation ecosystem will enhance new productive forces, supporting data from "people, vehicles, and roads" in various sectors including smart automotive manufacturing and smart cities [11]. - A collaborative model will emerge, involving hardware integration, software system supply, energy system supply, and transportation service enterprises to drive the global expansion of China's smart connected new energy vehicle industry [11].