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如何看AH和美股科技回调——美股七巨头牛市调整复盘【广发策略刘晨明&李如娟】
晨明的策略深度思考· 2025-03-02 05:51
Group 1 - The recent decline in the MAG7 index, which has dropped 13.6% since its peak at the end of 2024, is attributed to factors such as lowered growth expectations, increased inflation forecasts, and reduced spending by major companies like Microsoft [1][12][15] - The MAG7 index has experienced five adjustments since early 2023, with the current adjustment being the fifth, lasting 47 trading days [3][5][16] - The first four adjustments were primarily driven by liquidity shocks, while the fourth and fifth adjustments have been influenced by fundamental issues, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6][19][20] Group 2 - During the fourth and fifth adjustments, there was a noticeable style shift in the market, with technology stocks declining while sectors like utilities and healthcare showed gains [8][30][31] - In response to the adjustments, it is suggested that investors should consider traditional low-beta sectors such as utilities and consumer staples for risk mitigation [8][31] Group 3 - The MAG7 index's performance is closely linked to economic conditions, with high economic growth correlating with higher relative returns [32] - The current economic outlook indicates a potential decline in growth rates, with expectations for 2025 and 2026 showing a decrease from 55.8% to 31.7% and further to 15.6%, respectively [36][37] - The individual stocks within the MAG7 index exhibit varying trends, with companies like Apple and Microsoft expected to maintain stable performance, while others like Nvidia and Amazon may face greater adjustment pressures [38]