Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the aviation industry, indicating that it is expected to outperform the overall market [3][4]. Core Insights - The National Civil Aviation Work Conference has set a growth target for 2026, aiming for a total transport turnover of 1,750 billion ton-kilometers, a passenger transport volume of 810 million, and a cargo and mail transport volume of 10.7 million tons, representing year-on-year growth of 6.7%, 5.2%, and 5.2% respectively [3]. - The report highlights that the global aircraft supply chain has not yet recovered, leading to increased aging of aircraft and supply constraints. The delivery cycle for new aircraft has extended to 6.8 years, which is longer than the 4.5 years seen in 2018 [3]. - Demand is expected to rise due to visa exemption policies that have increased the number of inbound travelers, with predictions of a significant increase in cross-border passenger flow. The report anticipates that the Spring Festival travel season in 2026 will see a daily average of 5.3% growth in passenger volume compared to the previous year [3]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The global aircraft supply chain remains disrupted, with Airbus and Boeing's delivery levels not returning to pre-pandemic figures. The backlog of aircraft orders exceeds 15,000 units, equivalent to 8-10 years of production capacity [3]. - The Chinese aviation industry is also affected, with only a 4.0% year-on-year increase in the total number of passenger aircraft in 2025 [3]. Demand Side - The implementation of visa exemption policies has led to a stable increase in foreign travelers entering China, with the proportion of visa-exempt foreign visitors remaining above 70% [3]. - The report predicts that the Spring Festival travel season will exhibit a "旺季更旺" (peak season is even busier) characteristic, with ticket prices expected to rise by 20% compared to the previous year [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continuing to invest in the aviation sector, highlighting the unprecedented constraints in aircraft manufacturing and the historical high passenger load factors. It suggests that airlines are likely to see significant improvements in profitability, marking the beginning of a "golden era" for the industry [3]. - Key companies recommended for investment include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, Huaxia Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines, along with a focus on global aircraft leasing companies and improving airport performance [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the aviation industry, indicating it is entering a "golden era" with an investment rating of "Overweight" [2][3]. Core Insights - The National Civil Aviation Work Conference emphasized "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," with initial signs of reducing "involution" in the industry. The 2026 targets include a total transport turnover of 1,750 billion ton-kilometers, 810 million passenger transport, and 10.7 million tons of cargo, representing year-on-year growth of 6.7%, 5.2%, and 5.2% respectively [3]. - The global aircraft supply chain remains unhealed, with an aging fleet exacerbating supply constraints. Airbus plans to deliver 793 aircraft in 2025, while Boeing aims for 600, both below pre-pandemic levels. The backlog exceeds 15,000 aircraft, and the delivery cycle has extended to 6.8 years, leading to prolonged service of older models [3]. - Demand is bolstered by visa exemption policies, driving an increase in inbound travelers. The proportion of foreign visitors entering China under visa exemptions has stabilized above 70%. The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to see a daily average of 5.3% growth in passenger volume, with ticket prices projected to rise by 20% compared to the previous year [3]. - The report recommends continued investment in the aviation sector, highlighting the unprecedented constraints in aircraft manufacturing, high passenger load factors, and the growth of inbound and outbound travel. Key companies recommended include China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, Huaxia Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines [3]. Summary by Sections Supply Side - The global aircraft supply chain is still recovering, with significant delivery delays and an aging fleet leading to supply constraints. The total number of passenger aircraft in China is projected to grow by only 4% in 2025, with a peak in retirements expected by 2030 [3]. Demand Side - The implementation of visa exemption policies is expected to significantly increase the number of inbound travelers, with international routes becoming the main driver of demand growth in 2026. The Spring Festival is anticipated to show a notable increase in both volume and pricing [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a strong investment in the aviation sector, citing the current supply constraints and the potential for significant improvements in airline profitability. Specific airlines and global aircraft leasing companies are highlighted as key investment opportunities [3][4].