航空需求改善
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客座率同环比显著改善,关注淡季需求改善延续性 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-09-19 03:17
Core Insights - The aviation industry in August 2025 continued to experience year-on-year growth in demand, with supply constraints leading to record high passenger load factors and significant improvements compared to previous months [1][2]. Industry Dynamics - The six A-share listed airlines reported a year-on-year increase in Available Seat Kilometers (ASK) and Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK) of +4.8% and +5.5% respectively, achieving an overall passenger load factor of 86.9%, which is an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - Domestic demand growth has slowed but still outpaced supply growth, with domestic ASK and RPK increasing by +1.7% and +2.8% respectively, resulting in a domestic load factor of 88.3%, up by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - International operations exceeded 2019 levels, with international ASK and RPK increasing by +13.3% and +13.4% respectively, maintaining a load factor that improved by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Aircraft Utilization and Pricing - Aircraft utilization remained high in August, with an average of 8.9 hours per day, an increase of 1.0 hours year-on-year. Wide-body aircraft utilization increased by 1.8 hours, while narrow-body aircraft saw a slight decrease of 0.4 hours [3]. - The domestic load factor reached a historical high of 88.3%, up by 0.9 percentage points year-on-year and 1.0 percentage points compared to 2019 [3]. - Ticket prices showed a narrowing decline, with domestic economy class fares dropping by -5.5% and -2.4% when including and excluding fuel surcharges respectively. International ticket prices fell by -14% year-on-year [3]. Fleet Expansion - The fleet of the six airlines grew by 0.4% month-on-month, with a total of 3,329 aircraft managed as of August 2025, reflecting a net increase of 14 aircraft [4]. - The main aircraft types introduced were narrow-body models, including 16 new narrow-body aircraft, while wide-body aircraft were also added to enhance fleet structure [4]. Investment Outlook - The industry is expected to see continued demand improvement, particularly during the National Day holiday, which may influence pricing stability and recovery in the fourth quarter [5]. - The ongoing recovery in business travel demand is anticipated to support price increases in the industry, enhancing investor sentiment towards specific airlines [5].
交通运输物流行业2025年8月航空数据点评:客座率同环比显著改善,关注淡季需求改善延续性
Minsheng Securities· 2025-09-18 11:27
行业动态:A 股上市航司发布 2025 年 8 月经营数据 8 月航空需求延续同比增长,供给增投受限使得客座率新高,同环比显著改善。 8 月行业供需延续同比增长,供给同比同期高基数增长有限,根据各公司公告, 8 月 A 股六家上市航司 ASK/RPK 同比+4.8%/+5.5%,整体客座率 86.9%,同 比+0.6pct:1)尽管国内需求同比增速放缓但还是跑赢供给增速:六航司 8 月国 内 ASK/RPK 同比+1.7%/+2.8%,客座率达 88.3%,同比+0.9pct,需求同比增 速较 7 月有所放缓;2)国际线运营量超过 2019 年水平,供需恢复度突破 100%: 8 月六航司国际线 ASK/RPK 同比+13.3%/+13.4%,客座率同比+0.1pct,国际 航线需求在 2024 年暑运运量基数上仍实现较高增长,延续了年初至今国际线供 需增长趋势,8 月单月数据已超过 2019 年同期,我们认为国际航线运量增长带 动行业飞机利用率回升、限制了国内航线运力投放能力。 交通运输物流行业 2025 年 8 月航空数据点评 客座率同环比显著改善,关注淡季需求改善延续性 2025 年 09 月 18 日 ...