周二，波音(BA.US)跌逾2%，报227.13美元。消息面上，据报道，航空咨询公司Cirium的数据显示，截 至今年8月初，A320系列累计交付量已达12,155架，仅比波音少20架，预计最快下月将反超，成为史上 交付量最高的商用飞机。 展望未来，空客首席执行官GuillaumeFaury已着手规划下一代机型，他在巴黎航展期间曾透露空客正在 研发A320继任者，预计2030年代中期投入运营——这清晰表明，争夺未来天空主导权的竞赛已然打 响。 ...

Group 1 - Airbus predicts that the global commercial aircraft fleet will double to nearly 50,000 aircraft over the next 20 years, increasing from 24,480 to 49,210 by 2044 [1] - The primary growth driver is expected to be single-aisle aircraft, such as the Airbus A320 series and Boeing 737, which are the backbone of airline fleets [1] - Global passenger traffic is projected to grow steadily at an average annual rate of 3.6%, with the Middle East identified as another key growth driver [2] Group 2 - India is expected to lead as the fastest-growing market for aviation over the next 20 years, with China anticipated to become the largest aviation market in terms of capacity [3] - India is currently the third-largest domestic aviation market, driven by a population exceeding 1.4 billion and a rapidly expanding middle class [3] - Air India has ordered 570 aircraft since 2023, while low-cost carrier IndiGo has placed orders for over 900 aircraft, including a recent expansion of 60 A350 wide-body aircraft [3] Group 3 - Despite global trade tensions, Airbus has raised its 20-year demand forecast for jetliners [4] - Airbus Commercial Aircraft CEO Christian Scherer stated that there has been no fundamental shift in customer demand, except for the U.S. domestic market [5] - Trade tensions, particularly due to tariffs, pose challenges for the aviation industry, potentially disrupting the cross-border flow of aircraft and parts, impacting production and delivery schedules [6] Group 4 - Supply chain issues remain a significant challenge for Airbus, with some key component shortages still affecting delivery timelines [6] - For instance, the shortage of engines from CFM International has impacted A320neo deliveries, while the flagship A350 has faced delays due to a shortage of toilet components [6]

Group 1 - Airbus predicts that the global commercial aircraft fleet will double in the next 20 years, reaching nearly 50,000 aircraft, driven by rapid growth in markets like India [1] - By 2044, the global active fleet is expected to increase by 24,480 aircraft, with significant contributions from single-aisle aircraft like the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 [1] - Airbus anticipates that the Indian domestic aviation network will become the fastest-growing aviation market, while China will become the largest market in terms of capacity [1] Group 2 - Airbus CEO Christian Scherer noted that there has not been a fundamental shift in customer demand outside the U.S. domestic market, with continued interest in their products [2] - Despite easing supply chain disruptions from the pandemic, some components remain in short supply, affecting aircraft deliveries, particularly for the A320neo and A350 models [2] - India has emerged as the world's third-largest domestic aviation market, with a growing affluent population driving future aircraft demand, as evidenced by Indian airlines ordering 570 aircraft from Airbus and Boeing since 2023 [2]

Group 1 - The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has unexpectedly delayed the certification of China's C919 aircraft by three to six years, pushing back what was anticipated to be a 2025 certification [1][3] - This delay comes despite previous commitments from the EU to enhance cooperation with China and complete the C919's certification process by 2025, raising concerns about the changing rules of engagement in international aviation [3][5] - The timing of the delay coincides with increased pressure from the EU for China to purchase more Airbus aircraft, particularly the A320 series, while the U.S. is urging allies to contain China's aviation industry [5][8] Group 2 - The C919 has already achieved over 50,000 hours of safe flight in domestic operations, receiving positive feedback from passengers and airlines, indicating its readiness for international markets [6][10] - The delay is perceived as a political maneuver rather than a technical issue, reflecting broader geopolitical tensions and trade negotiations between China and the EU [8][10] - China Commercial Aircraft Corporation (COMAC) has secured nearly 1,200 domestic orders for the C919, which could significantly impact Boeing and Airbus's market shares if the aircraft gains international certification [10][12]