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吉祥航空(603885):发动机影响犹在 盈利高弹性不改
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-11-01 08:35
Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating challenges in the current operating environment [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 17.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.09 billion yuan, down 14.28% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 6.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 1.88%, and a net profit of 584 million yuan, down 25.29% year-on-year [1] Operational Metrics - As of September 30, 2025, the company had a fleet size of 130 aircraft, an increase of 3 from the end of 2024 [2] - In Q3 2025, the company's available seat kilometers (ASK) and revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) showed a slight decline, but the load factor improved to 86.64%, up 0.90 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The ASK for the overall, domestic, international, and regional segments showed year-on-year changes of -1%, -7%, +19%, and -47% respectively, while the RPK changes were 0%, -7%, +27%, and -44% respectively [2] Cost and Revenue Management - The company experienced a slight decrease in seat kilometer revenue, measured at 0.4346 yuan in Q3 2025, down 0.5% year-on-year, while seat kilometer costs increased by 1.0% to 0.3497 yuan [2] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.04 billion, 1.47 billion, and 1.97 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 27.2X, 19.2X, and 14.3X [3] - Given the quality of the domestic route network and expectations of improved ticket prices, the company is expected to benefit, maintaining a "buy" rating [3]