航运周期反转
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“黑五”“圣诞节”消费旺季将至,航运主力期货逆市上涨
Xuan Gu Bao· 2025-11-04 23:37
Industry Overview - The container shipping market has shown active performance with freight rates continuously rising, prompting many listed companies to open new shipping routes to capture market opportunities and adjust strategic layouts to better meet cargo transportation demands [1] - The demand for China's export container shipping is considered stable, with most shipping routes showing a steady upward trend [1] - The North American market is entering a consumption peak season with events like "Black Friday" and "Christmas" in November and December [1] Market Outlook - According to Guangfa Securities, the dry bulk shipping market is likely at the turning point of an economic cycle, with the demand growth rate expected to exceed the supply growth rate by 2026/27, indicating a potential reversal in the supply-demand dynamics after years of weakness [1] - The fleet growth rate remains low, while demand is marginally improving due to factors such as increased production in West Africa and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may help narrow the supply-demand gap [1] - Supply constraints are expected to decrease significantly due to global shipbuilding capacity utilization and stricter environmental regulations, which will limit new ship deliveries over the next two years, thus supporting the upward movement of freight rate levels [1] Company Insights - COSCO Shipping Holdings focuses on the shipping logistics industry, specializing in container manufacturing, leasing, and shipping leasing, with high capacity utilization rates and orders scheduled through November and December [2] - The company is advancing projects that integrate shipping and finance, with an increased proportion of methanol-reserved eco-friendly ship types, aligning with the trend of green transformation in shipping [2] - Jinjiang Shipping, a leading player in Northeast Asia's container shipping market, maintains the highest market share on routes from Shanghai to Japan and Shanghai to Taiwan [3]