证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 24 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 SAC：S1350525070001 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 联系人 板块表现： 快递反内卷趋势延续，油运运价创新高 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 11 月 17 日-2025 年 11 月 21 日） 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）10 月快递行业数据发布，行业件量同比增长 7.9%，通达系各家件量增速分化， 单票收入环比均持续改善，反内卷成效显著。2025 年 10 月，我国快递业务量完成 176.0 亿件，同比增长 ...

2025年11月21日 集运日报 (航运研究小组) 现货价格短期见顶，盘面连续回落，符合目报预期，已建议部分止盈，关注12月运价支撑逻辑。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 | 11月17日 | 11月14日 | | --- | --- | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（欧洲航线）1357.67点，较上期下跌9.8% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（综合指数）999.69点，较上期下跌5.12% | | 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1238.42 点，较上期下跌6.9% | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI (欧洲航线) 979.34点，较上期上涨7.42% | | 11月14日 | 宁波出口集装箱运价指数NCFI（美西航线）1052.43点，较上期下跌21.99% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI公布价格1451.38点，较上期下跌43.72点， | 11月14日 | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1417USD/TEU，较上期上涨7.1% | 中国出口集装箱运价指数CCFI（综合指数）1094.03点，较上期上涨3.4% | | 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCF ...

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——展望"十五五" | 专访黄群慧：既要重视AI赋能千行百业，也要考量其对就业 的替代效应和带来的收入极化 （记者 王晓波） 2024年1至12月份，招商轮船的营业收入构成为：油轮运输占比35.68%，散货船运输占比30.78%，集装 箱运输占比21.06%，滚装船运输占比7.12%，其他占比5.36%。 截至发稿，招商轮船市值为724亿元。 每经AI快讯，招商轮船（SH 601872，收盘价：8.97元）11月20日晚间发布公告称，2025年7月30日，公 司披露了《董事、高管股权激励所获股票减持计划的公告》，公司副总经理徐晖先生、胡斌先生，董事 会秘书孔康先生拟通过大宗交易方式减持通过股权激励所获得的公司股份共计不超过47.56万股，减持 股份占公司总股本比例不超过0.005890%，每人计划减持比例不超过其个人持股总额的25%，减持价格 将按照减持实施时的市场价格确定。 截至减持期限到期之日（2025年11月19日），三位高级管理人员共计减持公司股票约43万股，占公司股 份总数的0.005313%。 ...

2025年11月19日 集运日报 (航运研究/组) SCFIS持续下行，压制盘面持续下探，符合日报预期，可考虑部分止盈，关注12月运价支撑逻辑。 SCFIS、NCFI运价指数 11月17日 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS (欧洲航线) 1357.67点, 较上期下跌9.8% 上海出口集装箱结算运价指数SCFIS（美西航线）1238.42 点, 较上期下跌6.9% 11月14日 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFl公布价格1451.38点,较上期下跌43.72点 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI欧线价格1417USD/TEU,较上期上涨7.1% 上海出口集装箱运价指数SCFI美西航线1823USD/FEU,较上期上下跌17.59% 11月14日 | 短期策略：主力合约回撤，远月合约较强，风险偏好者已建议 | | --- | | EC2602合约1550-1600区间轻仓试多,可考虑不分止盈,关注现货 | | 走势,不建议扛单,设置好止损。 | | 套利策略:国际局势动荡背景下,各合约仍保持季节性逻辑,波动 | | 较大,建议暂时观望或轻仓尝试。 | | 长期策略:各合约已建议冲高止盈,等待回调企稳后,在判断后续 ...

Core Insights - In October 2025, the total container throughput reached 17.418 million TEUs, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [2] - Cumulative container throughput for the year reached 171.714 million TEUs, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.1% [2] - In contrast, the total bulk cargo volume for October 2025 was 99.929 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.9% [2] - The cumulative bulk cargo volume for the year was 1,046.426 million tons, which is a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year [2]

Core Insights - The opening of the Chancay Port in Peru has led to significant growth in cargo throughput and trade volume, with over 270,000 TEUs handled and a total trade value of $6.03 billion in exports and $9.84 billion in imports in the first nine months of the year [1][5]. Group 1: Cargo and Trade Growth - Chancay Port has achieved a cumulative container throughput of over 270,000 TEUs and handled approximately 1.36 million tons of bulk cargo since its opening [1]. - The port's export trade value reached $603 million and import trade value reached $984 million in the first nine months of the year, generating approximately 697 million Peruvian Soles in tax revenue [1]. - The "Chancay-Shanghai" direct shipping route has facilitated the efficient transport of goods, including fresh blueberries and vehicles, enhancing trade connections between Peru and China [2][4]. Group 2: Logistics and Efficiency Improvements - The transit time for blueberries and avocados from Peru to Shanghai has been reduced to 31 days, a decrease of 13 days, while the transport time for Chinese electric vehicles to Peru has been cut to 30 days, down by 7 days [4]. - Since the opening of the new shipping route, over 20 automotive and machinery companies have utilized the Chancay Port, with more than 12,000 vehicles shipped, supporting the global expansion of Chinese manufacturing [5]. - The "Chancay-Shanghai" route has seen a 56.9% year-on-year increase in trade value, with a total of 15,400 tons of goods valued at 3.97 billion yuan transported in the first three quarters [5]. Group 3: Network Expansion and Connectivity - The port has established new shipping routes, including a branch line to Arequipa, significantly reducing transportation distances for goods from Brazil [8]. - The opening of a new route connecting Ecuador and Shanghai via Chancay has resulted in a 37.67% increase in banana exports from Ecuador to China in the first half of the year [8]. - Chancay Port is evolving into a regional hub, enhancing its connectivity with multiple Latin American countries, including Mexico, Panama, Colombia, Ecuador, Chile, Brazil, and Bolivia [9]. Group 4: Technological Advancements and Sustainability - Chancay Port is equipped with advanced automated and smart port technologies, including remote-controlled cranes and automated straddle carriers, improving operational efficiency [10]. - The port has set records for cargo handling, including a 60,000-ton cement shipment and a 7,500-vehicle roll-on/roll-off ship, indicating its growing capacity and capability [10]. - The port's development is focused on sustainability and modernization, with plans to enhance its service offerings and product value [10]. Group 5: Future Prospects - The opening of the Chancay Port and the "Chancay-Shanghai" shipping route has significantly shortened the logistical distance between China and Latin America, optimizing supply chains [11]. - There are plans to deepen maritime cooperation between China and Peru, which will further support economic and trade growth in the region [11].

宁波港公告称，2025年10月，公司预计完成集装箱吞吐量456万标准箱，同比增长12.4%；预计完成货 物吞吐量9960万吨，同比增长5.3%。公告提示，该业务数据为快速统计数据，与最终实际数据可能有 差异，提醒投资者注意风险。 ...

Industry Overview - The container shipping market has shown active performance with freight rates continuously rising, prompting many listed companies to open new shipping routes to capture market opportunities and adjust strategic layouts to better meet cargo transportation demands [1] - The demand for China's export container shipping is considered stable, with most shipping routes showing a steady upward trend [1] - The North American market is entering a consumption peak season with events like "Black Friday" and "Christmas" in November and December [1] Market Outlook - According to Guangfa Securities, the dry bulk shipping market is likely at the turning point of an economic cycle, with the demand growth rate expected to exceed the supply growth rate by 2026/27, indicating a potential reversal in the supply-demand dynamics after years of weakness [1] - The fleet growth rate remains low, while demand is marginally improving due to factors such as increased production in West Africa and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may help narrow the supply-demand gap [1] - Supply constraints are expected to decrease significantly due to global shipbuilding capacity utilization and stricter environmental regulations, which will limit new ship deliveries over the next two years, thus supporting the upward movement of freight rate levels [1] Company Insights - COSCO Shipping Holdings focuses on the shipping logistics industry, specializing in container manufacturing, leasing, and shipping leasing, with high capacity utilization rates and orders scheduled through November and December [2] - The company is advancing projects that integrate shipping and finance, with an increased proportion of methanol-reserved eco-friendly ship types, aligning with the trend of green transformation in shipping [2] - Jinjiang Shipping, a leading player in Northeast Asia's container shipping market, maintains the highest market share on routes from Shanghai to Japan and Shanghai to Taiwan [3]

Core Insights - The container shipping market is experiencing a significant increase in freight rates, with companies actively opening new routes to capture market opportunities and adjust strategic layouts to meet cargo transport demands [1][2][4] Container Freight Rate Trends - Since October, container shipping prices have been rising, with the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index reaching 1550.70 points, up 10.5% from the previous period and nearly 40% from the low on September 26 [1] - Freight rates for Shanghai to the West Coast and East Coast of the U.S. have increased by 22.9% and 13.4%, respectively, compared to the low on September 26 [1][2] - The Ningbo Shipping Exchange reported a 17.4% increase in the European route freight index, with significant rises in other routes as well [2][4] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The upcoming holiday seasons, including Christmas and the Chinese New Year, are expected to create a small peak in shipments, further driving up freight rates [2] - However, as freight rates rise, capacity deployment is also increasing, leading to a new cycle of rate fluctuations [2][4] - Clarkson's latest forecast predicts a 3.3% growth in global container shipping volume by 2025, while capacity is expected to grow by 6.7%, indicating a potential oversupply situation that may limit future rate increases [4] Strategic Developments by Companies - COSCO Shipping has launched a new direct route from Hainan to Peru, enhancing logistics efficiency and reducing costs for local enterprises [5] - Ningbo Ocean is expanding its global route network, focusing on Southeast Asia and enhancing service quality while also advancing green and smart fleet initiatives [5][6] - China Merchants Industry is seeing robust performance on major routes and is expanding into emerging markets like Southeast Asia and India, while optimizing cost structures [6] - Hai Jie Shipping has introduced the world's first Arctic container express route, aiming to provide faster and lower-carbon logistics options for high-end manufacturing and cross-border e-commerce [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The improvement in Sino-US tariff situation meets the daily report's rebound expectation, but it is not recommended to increase positions. Instead, partial profit-taking can be considered, and attention should be paid to the freight rates in November [1] - The tariff issue has shown a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the process of bottoming out, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [3] - Although the mutual reduction of Sino-US tariffs is beneficial to the market to some extent, the freight rates in November may not reach the previously announced increase, suppressing the upward movement of the market. Under the game between long and short positions, the market is generally in a weak and volatile state. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [3] Summary According to Related Catalogs SCFIS, NCFI Freight Rate Index - On October 27, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Rate Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1312.71 points, a 15.1% increase from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1107.32 points, a 28.2% increase from the previous period [2] - On October 31, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Rate Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1100.32 points, a 12.60% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 965.62 points, a 17.43% increase from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1452.82 points, a 12.30% increase from the previous period [2] - On October 31, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Rate Index (SCFI) announced price was 1550.70 points, a 147.24-point increase from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1344 USD/TEU, a 7.87% increase from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2647 USD/FEU, a 22.94% increase from the previous period [2] - On October 31, the China Export Container Freight Rate Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1021.39 points, a 2.9% increase from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1323.81 points, a 2.4% increase from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 772.67 points, a 4.9% increase from the previous period [2] Economic Data - In October, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a 0.8-percentage-point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.0%, a 0.6-percentage-point decrease from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and business activities of Chinese enterprises were stable [3] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's October manufacturing PMI was 45.9, with an expected value of 45.1 and a previous value of 45; the preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 51.2, with an expected value of 51.5 and a previous value of 51.4; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 49.7, with an expected value of 49.7 and a previous value of 49.6. The Eurozone's October Sentix Investor Confidence Index had a previous value of -9.2 and a predicted value of -8.5 [2] - The preliminary value of the US October S&P Global service industry PMI was 55.2, with an expected value of 53.5 and a previous value of 54.2; the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2, with an expected value of 52 and a previous value of 52; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8, with an expected value of 53.1 and a previous value of 53.9 [3] Futures Market - On October 31, the main contract 2512 closed at 1804.0, with a decline of 2.54%, a trading volume of 59,500 lots, and an open interest of 31,400 lots, an increase of 1251 lots from the previous day [3] - The short-term strategy suggests that the main contract remains weak while the far-month contracts are strong, which is in line with the bottoming-out judgment. Risk-takers who were advised to build positions in the EC2512 contract below 1500 (with a profit margin of over 300 points) can consider partial profit-taking. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market trend, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop-loss should be set [4] - The arbitrage strategy suggests that under the background of international turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [4] - The long-term strategy suggests taking profits when each contract rises and waiting for the callback to stabilize before judging the subsequent direction [4] - The daily limit for the 2508 - 2606 contracts has been adjusted to 18% [4] - The company's margin for the 2508 - 2606 contracts has been adjusted to 28% [4] - The daily opening limit for all 2508 - 2606 contracts is 100 lots [4] Tariff Policy - The US will cancel the so-called "fentanyl tariff" of 10% imposed on Chinese goods (including those from the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and the Macao Special Administrative Region), and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will continue to be suspended for one year. China will adjust its countermeasures accordingly, and the two sides have agreed to continue to extend some tariff exclusion measures [5]