1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the container shipping index is "oscillation", and the trading strategy for unilateral trading is also "oscillation", with an arbitrage strategy of 10 - 12 reverse - spread rolling operation [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The container shipping index shows continuously falling freight rates, approaching the cost line. Spot freight rates are bearish, with the September - lower market FAK freight rate center at 1750. Political and economic factors are neutral, and the supply and demand of shipping capacity are also neutral. It is expected that the offline freight rate will drop to the low point in May this year in late October, and shipping companies will start to sign contracts to support prices after the cargo volume rebounds in November [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bearish. The September - lower prices of GEMINI dropped to 1600, OA to 1800, PA to 1700, and MSC to 1750. The fourth - quarter long - term contract negotiation has begun, and shipping companies are still cautious about long - term quotes below the current FAK level, while PSS may be reduced or cancelled in the fourth quarter [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Neutral. There are multiple events such as the meeting between Baysent and Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng, MSC's adjustment of its US route network, Trump's plan to urge G7 to impose high tariffs on India and China's purchase of Russian oil, and the US experiencing a stagflation - like situation [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: Neutral. The weekly average shipping capacity deployment in July was 300,000, 315,000 in August, 305,000 in September, and 270,000 in October. There are changes in overtime ships and cancellations of sailings, with about 12% of planned voyages (85 out of 720) cancelled between weeks 38 - 42, and 65% of the cancellations concentrated in weeks 40 - 41 [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate is still lower than the same period in the past two years, and there is a significant difference in the decline rate of the loading rate from China to Europe compared to that from Asia to Europe. The loading rate of GEMINI has rebounded due to significant price cuts, while the loading rates of the other two major alliances continue to decline [3] - **Summary**: In the European shipping market, based on EPMI data, the cargo volume will bottom out in October and turn around in November. From late September to late October, shipping companies will "grab goods", but the "ROLLINGPOOL" strategy in the off - season may intensify the decline in freight rates. It is expected that the offline freight rate will return to the low point in May this year in late October, and shipping companies will start to sign contracts to support prices after the cargo volume rebounds in November. The suspension of some shipping capacity during the National Day holiday will not be restored after the holiday, and the reduction of ships in the off - season has limited impact on the market [3] 3.2 Price - The spot market has slow demand recovery, high supply, a new alliance established, and falling prices in the off - season [5] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are data on the order volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years, including various types of container ships such as those with 8,000 - 11,999 TEU, 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, etc. [15] - **Delivery Volume**: There are data on the delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years, including feeder container ships, intermediate container ships, etc. [18] - **Demolition Volume**: There are data on the demolition volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years, including various types of container ships [19] - **Future Delivery**: There are data on the future delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities, including quarterly and annual data [24] - **Ship - Breaking Price**: There are data on the ship - breaking prices of container ships with different loading capacities over the years, including various types of container ships [31] - **New - Building Ship Price**: There are data on the new - building ship price index and the new - building prices of container ships with different loading capacities over the years [32] - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: There are data on the second - hand ship price index and the second - hand prices of container ships with different loading capacities over the years, including 13,500 TEU, 15,500 TEU, etc. [40] - **Existing Shipping Capacity**: There are data on the existing shipping capacity of container ships, including the total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, the capacity of ships over 25 years old, and the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships [46] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Schedule**: There are data on the shipping capacity deployment of container ships from Shanghai to European basic ports, including the total shipping capacity deployment and the shipping capacity deployment of different alliances such as PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, etc. [60] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: There are data on the number and proportion of container ships with desulfurization towers installed, those being installed, and the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation [71] - **Average Speed**: There are data on the average speed of container ships, including the overall average speed and the average speed of container ships with different loading capacities [74] - **Idle Shipping Capacity**: There are data on the idle shipping capacity of container ships, including the total idle capacity, idle capacity by loading capacity, and the proportion of idle ships [79]