华尔街摁住油价也难遏通胀 美元超跌反弹冲击滞涨后的 金价 2025年08月15日 威尔鑫投资咨询研究中心 （文） 首席分析师 杨易君 来源：杨易君黄金与金融投资 周四国际现货金价以3354.41美元开盘，最高上试3374.29美元，最低下探3329.63美元，报收3334.78美元，下跌21.10美元，跌幅0.63%，振幅1.33%，日K 线呈震荡下跌中阴线。 周四美元指数以97.79点开盘，最高上试98.32点，最低下探97.62点，报收98.18点，上涨400点，涨幅0.41%，振幅0.72%，日K线呈震荡回升中阳线。 周四Wellxin贵金指数（金银钯铂）以6948.72点开盘，最高上试7003.25点，最低下探6873.85点，报收6918.61点，下跌32.76点，跌幅0.47%，振幅1.61%， 日K线呈震荡回落小阴线。 周四市场运行看似杂乱无章，但若参考通胀与利率预期两条基本面主线观察思考，即会理解市场运行的合理性。周四公布的7月美国PPI年率超预期大幅回 升，尤其核心PPI数据。 首先，我们知道9月美联储极大概率会再次推开降息窗口，悬疑是降息25点还是50点？周四PPI年率大幅上行，彰显通胀回 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：黄金不征税消息继续发酵，金价大幅回落；美国三大股指小幅收跌，欧 洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌0.58个基点 报4.281%；美元指数涨0.24%报98.50，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1962；COMEX 黄金期货跌2.80%报3393.7美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注美国CPI、美国7月政府预期、美联储委员密集讲话，国内7月信 贷数据或发布。黄金不征关税消息继续发酵，金价大幅回落。今日美国CPI将公布， 市场已经开始押注滞涨，若CPI上涨，金价仍有 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经纽约8月11日电（记者 刘亚南）由于市场担忧关税导致美国通胀压力升高，纽约股市三大股指 11日高开，早盘窄幅盘整，午后走弱，收盘时纽约股市三大股指均下跌。 截至当天收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数比前一交易日下跌200.52点，收于43975.09点，跌幅为0.45%；标 准普尔500种股票指数下跌16.00点，收于6373.45点，跌幅为0.25%；纳斯达克综合指数下跌64.62点，收 于21385.4点，跌幅为0.30%。 板块方面，标普500指数十一大板块八跌三涨。能源板块和房地产板块分别以0.79%和0.65%跌幅领跌， 必需消费品板块和非必需消费品板块分别以0.17%和0.14%涨幅领涨。 美国劳工部将于12日盘前发布7月份消费者价格指数，市场担忧7月份物价上涨。 外汇经纪商嘉盛集团资深分析师Jerry Chen表示，市场预计将于12日公布的美国7月份消费者价格指数同 比涨幅将从前一个月的2.7%升至2.8%，核心消费者价格指数涨幅预计从6月份的2.9%升至3.0%。同时， 也需要关注前值的修正情况是否会像非农数据那样爆冷。总体来看，目前的通胀水平尚且可控，但在高 关税的影响下不能排 ...

| 位及800-850附近压力位，伦敦银34-36附近支撑位及37-40附近压力位，沪银8500-8700附近支撑位及9100-9500附近压力位。（观点评 | | --- | | 分:0) | | 免责声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构、已具备期货交易咨询业务资格，本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开谈判。本公司对这些信息的准 | | 确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已才求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资渡议。我 | | 资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果、本公司搬不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机物和个人不得以任何形式剧版、复制和发布。如 | | 门用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源：SMM和VIND。风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎! | | 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | | 石原則 | 贵金属日评20250811: 美俄计划换领土达成俄乌停火协议,关 ...

| 石原則 | 贵金属日评20250811: 美俄计划换领土达成俄乌停火协议,关注周二美国消费端通胀CPI | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-08 | 2025-08-07 | 收盘价 | 2. 78 | 787.80 | 781. 42 | 6. 38 | 785.02 | | | | | 成交重 | 251828.00 | 271828.00 | 64.747.00 | -20,000.00 | 187081.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 220321.00 | 217630.00 | 217696.00 | 2.691.00 | 2, 625. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 0. 00 | 156.00 | 36045.00 | 36045.00 | 35889.00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘 ...

| 位及800-850附近压力位，伦敦银34-36附近支撑位及37-40附近压力位，沪银8500-8700附近支撑位及9100-9500附近压力位。（观点评 | | --- | | 分:0) | | 免责声明：宏源期货有限公司是经中国证监会批准设立的期货经营机构、已具备期货交易咨询业务资格，本报告分析及建议所依据的信息均来源于公开谈判。本公司对这些信息的准 | | 确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会发生任何变化。我们已才求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成任何投资渡议。我 | | 资者依据本报告提供的信息进行期货投资所造成的一切后果、本公司搬不负责。本报告版权仅为本公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机物和个人不得以任何形式剧版、复制和发布。如 | | 门用、刊发，需注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。数据来源：SMM和VIND。风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎! | | 王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 | | 石原則 | 贵金属日评20250811: 美俄计划换领土达成俄乌停火协议,关 ...

Economic Overview - The latest data indicates that the US economy is facing increasing risks of stagflation, with the services PMI almost stagnating and the manufacturing PMI dropping to a near one-year low, suggesting a complex situation of slowing economic activity and persistent inflation pressures [1][4] Services Sector - In July, the services PMI fell from 50.8 in June to 50.1, significantly below the market expectation of 51.5, indicating that the expansion pace of the services sector has nearly halted [2] - The services price index rose from 67.5 in June to 69.9 in July, approaching levels seen at the end of 2022, reflecting ongoing inflation pressures in the services sector due to tariffs and immigration policies [2] - The employment index decreased from 47.2 to 46.4, indicating a contraction in hiring levels and a weakening job market [2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI declined from 49 in June to 48 in July, falling short of the market expectation of 49.5, further exacerbating the contraction trend [3] - Although the output index showed an acceleration in expansion, the new orders index slightly rebounded but remained in the contraction zone, with employment contraction reaching a near one-year high [3] - The price index decreased from 69.7 to 64.8, indicating a slowdown in inflation pressure, yet it remains significantly above the post-pandemic average [3] Federal Reserve Policy - The PMI data reveals stagflation risks, presenting the Federal Reserve with a challenging policy decision in the third quarter, balancing a weakening job market against rising inflation due to tariffs [4] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve may maintain interest rates in September but could lower rates in October and December, with year-end policy rates projected to drop to 3.75%-4% [4] - The current economic conditions, characterized by slowing growth and a pressured job market alongside persistent inflation, complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that gold prices have rebounded due to disappointing U.S. non-farm employment data, leading to a decline in the dollar and increased market risk aversion [1] - On August 4, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 777.17 yuan per gram, which is a discount of 4.25 yuan per gram compared to the futures price of 781.42 yuan per gram [1] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for July showed an increase of only 73,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 104,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.2% [1] Group 2 - The market's focus is shifting towards U.S. economic growth expectations and labor market demand, despite a second-quarter GDP growth of 3% exceeding the expected 2.5% [2] - Personal consumption expenditure growth of 1.4% in the second quarter was slightly below expectations, indicating ongoing inflation risks [2] - The PCE index showed a year-on-year increase in June, suggesting a rebound in inflation [2] Group 3 - Haitong Futures suggests that the U.S. economy is facing stagflation concerns due to tariff impacts, limiting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy options [3] - If market risk aversion continues, gold prices are expected to rise, potentially leading silver back into an upward trend [3] - The forecast for COMEX gold prices is between $3,200 and $3,500, with a strategy to buy gold and silver on dips [3]

回答： 主持人：这周的结尾可真疯狂。美元在周五遭到重挫，尤其是兑日元——一度升至151，然后突然崩跌到148。欧洲也一样。欧元走强后，美国人用美元换 欧元更贵了，原来可能一美元能换0.98欧元，现在只剩0.84、0.85了。现在一切都变得非常敏感，聪明钱和有钱人都在盯着汇率和黄金。 以下是贵金属分析师、GoldMoney创始人James Turk本周接受媒体采访时的内容（华尔街情报圈根据录音整理）。如果你愿意从"炒黄金"跳出，去理解黄 金背后的货币逻辑与时代情绪，那这场对话堪称是一堂含金量极高的"金融哲学课"。 1971年尼克松让美元与黄金脱钩时，大众还相信黄金，因为他们曾使用黄金当作货币。但随着老一辈人的去世，这种认知也消失了，现在的年轻一代才开 始重新认识黄金和白银的意义。 黄金储备与M2的比值会大幅上涨，会不会达到30%，取决于央行和政府怎么做。如今黄金已经在悄然回归，不只是央行在买，普通人也在行动。人们不 再信任央行，他们在自己扮演"央行"的角色，囤积黄金。 恐惧指数的逻辑是这样的：M2代表某种购买力，它背后是银行资产负债表上的一堆承诺。但一旦信心丧失，比如硅谷银行那样的危机，黄金就会上涨， 这就是恐 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 13.26 points, a decline of 0.37%, at 3559.95 points, with a trading volume of 684.6 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell 18.45 points, down 0.17%, closing at 10991.32 points, with a trading volume of 913.7 billion yuan [1] - The total trading volume of both markets was approximately 1.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 300 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Small-cap stocks were favored, with over 3300 stocks rising in the market [1] Global Economic Impact - On July 31, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order imposing "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 10% to 41% on multiple countries and regions [1] - This news caused significant volatility in global capital markets, with the South Korean Composite Index experiencing a maximum drop of 3.7% and the Nikkei 225 Index dropping over 1% before stabilizing [1] Investment Strategy - In light of the increasing asset price volatility, a balanced asset allocation strategy of "stocks-bonds-commodities" is recommended to mitigate risks [2] - The China A500 ETF is suggested for capturing long-term economic growth opportunities in China [2] - Ten-year government bonds are highlighted for their defensive and offensive attributes, making them worthy of investor attention [2] - Gold is recommended for its safe-haven and monetary properties, supporting both short-term and long-term price trends [2] Economic Policy Insights - The "anti-involution" policies reflect a shift in focus from quantity to price by policymakers, fostering growing confidence in China's long-term economic outlook [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has been below zero for 33 consecutive months since October 2022, indicating a need for policy intervention [3] Technical Analysis - The A-share market showed strong performance in July, with a significant increase in trading volume and price, although a recent pullback occurred due to profit-taking [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index had ten consecutive trading days where the closing price was above the five-day moving average, indicating a strong upward trend [4] Bond Market Insights - The ten-year government bond ETF is recommended for its unique advantages, including T+0 trading, low fees, transparency in holdings, and the ability to pledge for repurchase [7] - The ten-year government bond serves as a benchmark in the bond market, providing a stable base for asset allocation [8] Gold Market Dynamics - Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, India-Pakistan, and Russia-Ukraine have heightened market risk aversion, supporting gold prices [9] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar's credit system due to challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence further strengthens the case for gold as a stable asset [10] - The U.S. economy faces challenges, with concerns about "stagflation" emerging, which may increase demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [11]