从技术分析的角度，今日的走势说明整数关口的突破并不有效，3900点以上仍然存在较大压力，反而市 场的先扬后抑一定程度挫伤了多头的做多热情。从15分钟级别来看，昨日的上涨呈现涨幅逐渐衰减的特 征，体现了多头接力力度的衰竭；而今日的下挫则较为流畅，直至昨日早盘低点支撑区间才略有企稳， 恐高情绪的扩散不言而喻。 上证综指收盘下跌36.94点，跌幅：0.94%，报3897.03点；深证成指收盘下跌370.14点，跌幅：2.7%，报 13355.42点；创业板指收盘下跌148.56点，跌幅：4.55%，报3113.26点。假期结束，节前避险的资金重 新活跃，成交量恢复至节前较高水平。沪深两市成交额约2.5万亿，较昨日缩量超1000亿。 板块方面，今日热点轮动加速。前期表现稍弱的反内卷板块涨幅居前，建材、煤炭等有所表现。红利板 块出现反弹，多支银行个股出现止跌迹象。受券商调整中芯国际折算率等消息影响，市场对科技成长股 过高估值水平的担忧逐渐发酵，前期表现亮眼的科技成长板块集体杀跌。 节后开盘首日沪指气势如虹，受长假期间贵金属及港美科技股大涨刺激，"有色+科技"携手并进， 一举 攻下3900点压力位。今日则风云突变，受券商 ...

[Table_A 李一爽 uthor 固定收益 ] 首席分析师 执业编号：S1500520050002 联系电话：+8618817583889 邮 箱：liyishuang@cindasc.com [Table_ReportTime] 2025 年 10 月 10 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com1 310 月债市：枕戈待旦 证券研究报告 债券研究 10 月债市：枕戈待旦 [T专题able_ReportType] 报告 日常工具的操作规模，但市场难以实时获取相关信息。在此背景下，资金 面的现实对于判断央行态度更加重要。因此，从 9 月实际的资金价格来看， 央行在既有框架内维持相对宽松的态度并未在 9 月改变。 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com3 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 10 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 ➢ 10 月资金面的外生扰动主要来自税期和政策工具的大量 ...

20世纪80年代之后，冷战的局势逐渐明朗：西方阵营一派繁荣，而苏联及其华约盟国却陷入了经济困境。苏联在油价下跌和阿富汗战争的双重打击下，经济 疲软，超级大国的地位动摇。西方国家对此信心十足，但就在大家认为大势已定时，1987年秋天，美国爆发了一场震动全球的股灾。 然而，随着生产过剩和石油危机的到来，西方经济逐渐放缓，进入了"滞涨"阶段。滞涨是一个奇怪的经济现象，通常情况下，通货膨胀和失业率会相互制 约，但滞涨却出现了通货膨胀、失业增加、经济停滞的局面。到1970年代中期，西方国家的经济增速放缓，工业产能过剩，国际竞争压力增大，社会矛盾加 剧。 这场股灾让全球主要股市暴跌、停牌，财富以惊人的速度蒸发。无论是纽约、伦敦还是香港，富翁纷纷跳楼，中产阶级陷入贫困。这场股灾是自1929年大萧 条以来，西方世界最严重的经济灾难，损失的财富甚至堪比一次世界大战。很多人认为，西方的经济体系可能因此崩溃。 1987年10月19日，这一天被称为"黑色星期一"。当天纽约股市开盘仅一小时，就出现了上亿股的卖盘，直接导致证券交易系统崩溃。随后，股市崩盘，道琼 斯指数暴跌20%。美国投资者陷入恐慌，不少人见证了自己财富的瞬间蒸发，甚至有 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 户到教 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | 卢钊教 | | do a die a la made in the may and 从业资格号:F03101843 | | 2025/9/22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind | | | | | | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 業 | 现值 | 1198 | 1120 | 1636 | 1349 | 2557 | 1052 | | = | 前值 | 1398 | 1125 | 2370 | 980 | 3307 | 1154 | | 15 | 涨跌幅 | -14.31% | -0.45% | -30.97% | 37.65% | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 10 - contract of EC is relatively weak due to the resumption of China - Europe freight trains on Wednesday, while it was strong following the overall commodity sentiment on Tuesday. The 12 - contract was supported by factors such as the suspension of China - Europe freight trains, National Day sailing suspension expectations, and price - holding, and showed strength on Monday [9]. - In the European shipping market, based on IPMI data, the cargo volume will bottom out in October and turn around in November. From late September to late October, shipping companies will "compete for cargo", but the "ROLLINGPOOL" strategy in the off - season may intensify the decline in freight rates. It is expected that the offline freight rates will fall back to the low point in May this year in late October, and shipping companies will start signing contracts to support prices after the cargo volume recovers in November. Although some shipping capacity will not resume after the National Day holiday, the impact of reducing ships in the off - season on the market is limited [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI)**: The current value is 1398, with a previous value of 1444 and a decline of 3.21% [6]. - **China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI)**: The current value is 1125, with a previous value of 1149 and a decline of 2.07% [6]. - **SCFI - West America**: The current value is 2370, with a previous value of 2189 and an increase of 8.27% [6]. - **SCFIS - West America**: The current value is 1349, with a previous value of 980 and an increase of 37.65% [6]. - **SCFI - East America**: The current value is 3307, with a previous value of 3073 and an increase of 7.61% [6]. - **SCFI - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 1154, with a previous value of 1315 and a decline of 12.24% [6]. - **SCFIS - Northwest Europe**: The current value is 1440, with a previous value of 1566 and a decline of 8.05% [6]. - **SCFI - Mediterranean**: The current value is 1738, with a previous value of 1971 and a decline of 11.82% [6]. 3.2 Shipping Derivative Contracts - **Contract Prices**: For contracts EC2506, EC2608, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604, the current values are 1468.7, 1616.7, 1109.7, 1672.0, 1578.8, and 1285.0 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 0.20%, - 0.57%, - 5.13%, - 0.11%, 0.43%, and 0.10% [7]. - **Contract Positions**: For positions EC2606, EC2608, EC2410, EC2412, EC2602, and EC2604, the current values are 924, 439, 49609, 20437, 7105, and 8334 respectively, with changes of (33), (5), 2092, 678, 386, and 101 [7]. - **Monthly Spreads**: For spreads 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4, the current values are - 562.3, 93.2, and 387.0 respectively, with changes of (58.2), (8.5), and (3.1) [7]. 3.3 Spot Prices - **GEMINI**: The overall average in September is 1600, with Maersk's wk38 opening at 1700, HPL - QQ at 1750 in late September, and HPL - SPOT at 1550 [10]. - **OA**: The overall average is 1800, with CMA at 2000, OOCL at 1650, and EMC at 1900 [10]. - **PA**: The overall average is 1700, with ONE at 1800 and HMM at 1600 [10]. - **MSC**: The price in late September is reported at 1750 [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The EC market showed a slight rebound, mainly following the strong overall commodity sentiment. The 12 - contract was supported by factors such as the suspension of China - Europe freight trains, the expectation of National Day sailings suspension, and price - holding. [8][9] - In the European shipping market, based on EPMI data, the cargo volume is expected to bottom out in October and turn around in November. From late September to late October, shipping companies will "compete for cargo", but the "ROLLINGPOOL" strategy in the off - season may intensify the decline in freight rates. It is expected that the offline freight rates will fall back to the May low in late October, and shipping companies will start to hold prices through contracts after the cargo volume recovers in November. The suspension of some shipping capacity during the National Day will not be restored after the festival, but the reduction of ships in the off - season has limited impact on the market. [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Freight Index | Index | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFI (Comprehensive) | 1398 | 1444 | - 3.21% | | CCFI | 1125 | 1149 | - 2.07% | | SCFI - US West | 2370 | 2189 | 8.27% | | SCFIS - US West | 1349 | 980 | 37.65% | | SCFI - US East | 3307 | 3073 | 7.61% | | SCFI - Northwest Europe | 1154 | 1315 | - 12.24% | | SCFIS - Northwest Europe | 1440 | 1566 | - 8.05% | | SCFI - Mediterranean | 1738 | 1971 | - 11.82% | [6] 3.2 Contract Information | Contract | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2506 | 1471.6 | 1431.9 | 2.77% | | EC2608 | 1625.9 | 1603.7 | 1.38% | | EC2510 | 1169.7 | 1163.1 | 0.57% | | EC2512 | 1673.8 | 1656.2 | 1.06% | | EC5602 | 1572.1 | 1516.9 | 3.64% | | EC2604 | 1283.7 | 1253.9 | 2.38% | [6] 3.3 Position Information | Position | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2606 | 957 | - | (37) | | EC2608 | 444 | 429 | 15 | | EC2410 | 47517 | 47772 | (255) | | EC2412 | 19759 | 19598 | 161 | | EC2602 | 6719 | 6330 | 389 | | EC2604 | 8233 | 8066 | 167 | [6] 3.4 Month - spread Information | Month - spread | Present Value | Previous Value | Change Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 - 12 | - 504.1 | - 493.1 | (11.0) | | 12 - 2 | 101.7 | 139.3 | (37.6) | | 12 - 4 | 390.1 | 402.3 | (12.2) | [6] 3.5 Spot Price Information - GEMINI: The average price in September dropped to 1600. Maersk's wk38 opening price was 1700, HPL - QQ was 1750 in late September, and HPL - SPOT was 1550. - 04: The average price of the alliance was 1800, CMA was 2000, OOCL was 1650, and EMC was 1900. - PA: The average price of the alliance was 1700, ONE was 1800, and HMN was 1600. - MSC: The reported price in late September was 1750. The freight rate center of PAK in the market in late September was 1750. [9]

百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，美国各项经济数据放缓，关税战中最主要的谈判迟迟未取得进展，未来关税对美国 经济的冲击可能会更加明显，再叠加美国内部矛盾，美国经济衰退并非不可能，当下黄金走势可能就是这一预期的佐证。 技术面：黄金日线收中阳线，价格已经回归均线，过大的乖离率已经得到修复。1小时周期形成上升旗形，短线大概率还有新 高，日内可关注下方3675美元一线的支撑。 原油方面： 隔夜油价小幅反弹，但也仅仅只是反弹，油价的问题在于需求疲弱，而供应却在持续增加，这种矛盾不改变，油价难有好的表 现。 9月7日，OPEC+通过视频会议举行部长级监督委员会会议，达成了重要的产量政策决议，原则上同意从2025年10月起逐步增加 原油产量，初始增产幅度约为13.7万桶/天。这标志着OPEC+政策重心的重大转变，从过去的"维护油价"转向"争夺市场份额"。 黄金方面： 隔夜黄金再次刷新历史新高，短线有冲击3700美元一线的可能，多头取得绝对的主导权，短期内慎言见顶，黄金可能还会带给 我们更多惊喜。 评级机构穆迪的警告，可能使得市场再度担心美国会进入衰退。8月穆迪发出警告，称美国经济正处于"衰退边缘"，隔夜其首席 经济学家 ...

II GERIK 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【1】特朗普发文：在美国和中国之间于欧洲举行的重要贸易会议进行得非常顺利!会议即将结束。还就"某家"公 司达成了一项协议,我们国家的年轻人非常希望拯救这家公司,他们将会非常高兴!我将在周五与习主席进行交谈。 行言 贝达成 新 向客户加收费用。【3】据《金融时报》援引知情人士消息，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普计划敦促七国集团（G7）国 家,对印度和中国购买俄罗斯石油的行为征收50%至100%的高额关税。以切断莫斯科的战争资金来源。 【 】美国四 十年来首次经历类似带涨（stagflation）局面。食品与能源价格上涨，为消费者提供每日、每周的经济"得分板 ",指向经济压力方向个利。 【EC】 |行情综述:小幅反弹。 主因:12合约受中欧班列停运、国庆停航预期及挺价因素支撑,周一表现偏强。 现货价格:GEMINI 9月下价格跌至1600,QA降至1800,PA降至1700,MSC降至1750。9月下市场PAK运价中枢在1750。 派 点 (1)GEMINI: 联盟整体均值在1600。马士基wk38开舱1700: HPL-QQ 9月下 1750, HPL-S ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the container shipping index is "oscillation", and the trading strategy for unilateral trading is also "oscillation", with an arbitrage strategy of 10 - 12 reverse - spread rolling operation [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The container shipping index shows continuously falling freight rates, approaching the cost line. Spot freight rates are bearish, with the September - lower market FAK freight rate center at 1750. Political and economic factors are neutral, and the supply and demand of shipping capacity are also neutral. It is expected that the offline freight rate will drop to the low point in May this year in late October, and shipping companies will start to sign contracts to support prices after the cargo volume rebounds in November [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bearish. The September - lower prices of GEMINI dropped to 1600, OA to 1800, PA to 1700, and MSC to 1750. The fourth - quarter long - term contract negotiation has begun, and shipping companies are still cautious about long - term quotes below the current FAK level, while PSS may be reduced or cancelled in the fourth quarter [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Neutral. There are multiple events such as the meeting between Baysent and Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng, MSC's adjustment of its US route network, Trump's plan to urge G7 to impose high tariffs on India and China's purchase of Russian oil, and the US experiencing a stagflation - like situation [3] - **Shipping Capacity Supply**: Neutral. The weekly average shipping capacity deployment in July was 300,000, 315,000 in August, 305,000 in September, and 270,000 in October. There are changes in overtime ships and cancellations of sailings, with about 12% of planned voyages (85 out of 720) cancelled between weeks 38 - 42, and 65% of the cancellations concentrated in weeks 40 - 41 [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The overall loading rate is still lower than the same period in the past two years, and there is a significant difference in the decline rate of the loading rate from China to Europe compared to that from Asia to Europe. The loading rate of GEMINI has rebounded due to significant price cuts, while the loading rates of the other two major alliances continue to decline [3] - **Summary**: In the European shipping market, based on EPMI data, the cargo volume will bottom out in October and turn around in November. From late September to late October, shipping companies will "grab goods", but the "ROLLINGPOOL" strategy in the off - season may intensify the decline in freight rates. It is expected that the offline freight rate will return to the low point in May this year in late October, and shipping companies will start to sign contracts to support prices after the cargo volume rebounds in November. The suspension of some shipping capacity during the National Day holiday will not be restored after the holiday, and the reduction of ships in the off - season has limited impact on the market [3] 3.2 Price - The spot market has slow demand recovery, high supply, a new alliance established, and falling prices in the off - season [5] 3.3 Static Shipping Capacity - **Order Volume**: There are data on the order volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years, including various types of container ships such as those with 8,000 - 11,999 TEU, 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, etc. [15] - **Delivery Volume**: There are data on the delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years, including feeder container ships, intermediate container ships, etc. [18] - **Demolition Volume**: There are data on the demolition volume of container ships with different loading capacities over the years, including various types of container ships [19] - **Future Delivery**: There are data on the future delivery volume of container ships with different loading capacities, including quarterly and annual data [24] - **Ship - Breaking Price**: There are data on the ship - breaking prices of container ships with different loading capacities over the years, including various types of container ships [31] - **New - Building Ship Price**: There are data on the new - building ship price index and the new - building prices of container ships with different loading capacities over the years [32] - **Second - Hand Ship Price**: There are data on the second - hand ship price index and the second - hand prices of container ships with different loading capacities over the years, including 13,500 TEU, 15,500 TEU, etc. [40] - **Existing Shipping Capacity**: There are data on the existing shipping capacity of container ships, including the total capacity, capacity by loading capacity, the capacity of ships over 25 years old, and the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships [46] 3.4 Dynamic Shipping Capacity - **Shipping Schedule**: There are data on the shipping capacity deployment of container ships from Shanghai to European basic ports, including the total shipping capacity deployment and the shipping capacity deployment of different alliances such as PA + MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN, etc. [60] - **Desulfurization Tower Installation**: There are data on the number and proportion of container ships with desulfurization towers installed, those being installed, and the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation [71] - **Average Speed**: There are data on the average speed of container ships, including the overall average speed and the average speed of container ships with different loading capacities [74] - **Idle Shipping Capacity**: There are data on the idle shipping capacity of container ships, including the total idle capacity, idle capacity by loading capacity, and the proportion of idle ships [79]

Core Viewpoint - The global economic landscape is increasingly volatile, with geopolitical factors and trade tensions impacting recovery momentum, leading to a surge in gold prices to historical highs [3][4]. Economic Outlook - Despite global uncertainties, the U.S. economy shows resilience, with stable growth expectations for 2025 at 1.8% and 2026 at 1.7% [4][5]. - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with non-farm payrolls underperforming expectations, indicating a potential mild stagflation risk [4][5]. Inflation and Monetary Policy - Tariffs have created cost pressures but have a limited overall impact on inflation; core PCE inflation is expected to rise above 3% by year-end [5][6]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points in September and December, with potential further cuts if labor market conditions worsen [5][6]. Gold Market Insights - Gold prices are projected to reach $3,750 per ounce by the end of 2025 and $4,000 by mid-2026, driven by high inflation and potential rate cuts [7][8]. - The need for new drivers for gold price increases is emphasized, particularly in the context of expanding budget deficits [7]. Investment Strategy - The current market sentiment is optimistic, with a decrease in hard landing probabilities and a rise in stock allocations [8]. - Investment opportunities are identified in the U.S. dollar, cash, real estate investment trusts (REITs), and healthcare sectors, while caution is advised for stocks and emerging markets [8]. Currency Forecast - The year-end forecast for the USD/CNY exchange rate is set at 7.10, with a projection of 6.80 by the end of 2026 [9].