Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [6]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record net profit attributable to shareholders of 20.34 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50.3% [1]. - Revenue for 2025 was 206.68 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.98% compared to the previous year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.286 yuan per share (before tax) [1]. Performance Summary - Production volumes exceeded targets for key products in 2025, with copper production at 741,100 tons, cobalt at 117,500 tons, and molybdenum at 13,906 tons, achieving completion rates of 118%, 107%, and 103% respectively [2]. - The average LME copper price in 2025 was $9,944.9 per ton, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year, while the average price for MB cobalt rose by 42.8% to $16.1 per pound [2]. Growth Drivers - The company has acquired five gold mines, which are expected to become a new growth driver. The acquisition of Lumia Gold was completed in June 2025, and the company plans to start production at the Odin mine in Ecuador by 2029 [2]. - In December 2025, the company acquired 100% equity in four operating gold mines in Brazil from Equinox Gold, with expected production of 6-8 tons of gold in 2026 and a projected capacity of 20 tons by 2029 [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast has been revised upwards due to anticipated price increases for copper, gold, cobalt, and tungsten. Expected net profits for 2026 and 2027 are 34.26 billion yuan and 36.94 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting increases of 68.4% and 7.8% [4]. - The projected P/E ratios for 2026, 2027, and 2028 are 11, 10, and 8 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the copper industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report is optimistic about copper prices rising in 2026 due to tightening supply and improving demand [4]. - As of March 27, 2026, SHFE copper closed at 95,930 CNY/ton, up 1.26% from March 20, and LME copper closed at 12,141 USD/ton, up 2.59% [1][17]. - The report highlights a significant decrease in non-commercial short positions in COMEX copper, reaching a near six-year low [1]. Supply and Demand Summary Supply - The TC spot price has reached a new low, indicating tight procurement of copper concentrate [3]. - Domestic copper concentrate inventory at major ports increased by 12.2% to 575,000 tons as of March 27, 2026 [2][47]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper increased by 1,213 CNY/ton, indicating a tighter supply of scrap copper [2][55]. Demand - The cable industry, which accounts for approximately 31% of domestic copper demand, saw a slight increase in operating rates to 70.77% [4]. - Air conditioning production is expected to rebound in the second quarter of 2026, with year-on-year changes of -4.9%, +6.3%, and +10.5% for April, May, and June respectively [4][93]. - The report notes that the demand for copper in the power sector is significant, with copper wire consumption in this sector accounting for about 30.7% of total copper production [75]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining, while also keeping an eye on Tongling Nonferrous Metals [4].

Core Viewpoint - The current oil price shock will not lead China into a "stagflation" scenario; improved inflation expectations will help catalyze the upward cycle of inventory, and the global energy transition and production security will accelerate capital goods exports from China, presenting opportunities in manufacturing and cyclical industries [6] Group 1: Impact of High Oil Prices on the Industry Chain - High oil prices affect the economic inflation center and rhythm significantly, primarily through industrial production and consumer prices [8] - The cost impact of high oil prices is most pronounced in transportation, chemicals, electricity, and construction, with the ability to transmit costs ranked as upstream > downstream > midstream [10] - High oil prices promote manufacturing price increases and inventory replenishment, with the petrochemical chain being the most benefited [17][19] Group 2: Review of Oil Price Shock Impact on A-shares - The oil price shocks from 2010-2012 and 2021-2022 had diverse impacts on A-shares, with four main mechanisms identified: 1) Rising oil prices boost resource prices and inventory replenishment, benefiting the oil chain and its substitutes [24] 2) Sustained high oil prices increase costs for oil-dependent industries, eroding profits [24] 3) Rising oil prices suppress export demand due to increased global manufacturing costs [24] 4) High oil prices trigger monetary tightening, negatively impacting stock market risk appetite [24] Group 3: Review of the 2010-2012 Oil Price Shock - During the 2010-2012 oil shock, the profitability of cyclical industries was negatively impacted by rising costs, particularly during high oil price plateau periods [27] - The manufacturing sector's profitability was less affected, with stable net profit margins in the machinery and electrical equipment sectors [29] - The consumer and technology sectors were generally less impacted by oil price shocks, although some downstream sectors like agriculture and textiles experienced declines [32][44] Group 4: Review of the 2021-2022 Oil Price Shock - The oil price shock during the 2021-2022 period had limited impact on the supply side, with oil prices rising initially but then declining significantly [40] - The cyclical industries showed resilience, with net profit margins remaining stable despite initial pressures from rising costs [41] - The consumer and technology sectors maintained low sensitivity to oil prices, although some sectors like agriculture and textiles faced challenges [44][49] Group 5: Industry Recommendations - Industries recommended for investment include petrochemicals, coal, and agricultural chemicals, which benefit from price differentials due to rising oil prices [4] - Capital goods sectors such as power equipment, new energy vehicles, and engineering machinery are expected to benefit from global energy transition and production security demands [4] - Industries likely to see inventory replenishment driven by price expectations include construction materials, steel, and chemicals [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bean No.1: Not clearly defined [1] - Soybean Oil: Not clearly defined [1] - Palm Oil: Not clearly defined [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Not clearly defined [1] - Soybean Meal: Not clearly defined [1] - Rapeseed Meal: Not clearly defined [1] - Corn: Not clearly defined [1] - Live Pigs: ★★★ (indicating a more distinct bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias but poor operability on the market) [1] 2. Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, energy prices, fertilizer supply, and climate. There are uncertainties in the supply chain of agricultural products, and investors need to pay attention to various risk factors [2][3][4] - Different agricultural products have different price trends and influencing factors. For example, the price of bean No.1 futures is mainly in a callback, and the price of live pigs is difficult to reverse in the medium - term, while the price of eggs is expected to gradually strengthen [2][8][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Bean No.1 - The main contract of bean No.1 futures reduced positions, and the price mainly declined. The market is affected by factors such as the decline of crude oil prices, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, and the cost of new - season crops [2] 3.2 Soybean & Soybean Meal - Trump's statement indicates that the relationship between the US and Iran may ease, and the prices of agricultural products affected by fertilizer prices and international freight have weakened. The 2605 contract of Dalian Commodity Exchange reduced more than 80,000 lots and fell 1.6%. Brazil's soybean harvest rate is lower than last year, and the export plan to China is still at a high level. The shipment volume of US soybeans to China decreased. Multiple factors affect the market, and uncertainties are increasing [3] 3.3 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Crude oil prices dropped significantly, and the global financial market fluctuated sharply. The price difference between vegetable oil and petro - diesel continued to decline, which was beneficial for the marginal improvement of biodiesel. The prices of natural gas in Asia and Europe were strong, and new - season crops faced the risks of fertilizer supply interruption and cost increase. The market expected a higher probability of planting more soybeans and less corn, but it needed to be verified. The market is affected by both inflation and recession logics [4] 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The prices of rapeseed products followed the market decline. The statements of the US and Iran will affect the pricing of geopolitical factors in the oilseed market. The inventory and operating rate of coastal rapeseed oil mills are low, but the supply is expected to increase. The demand for rapeseed meal is expected to be boosted seasonally, and it is recommended to wait and see [6] 3.5 Corn - The prices of corn in some ports in the north increased slightly, while the prices in Shandong decreased. The increase in the auction volume of state - supported wheat and the opening of enterprise qualification may impact the corn price. With the warming of the weather in the northeast, the selling sentiment may weaken, and investors need to pay attention to the callback risk [7] 3.6 Live Pigs - The decline of live pig futures in the far - month contracts slowed down, and the overall position increased by nearly 10,000 lots. The spot price continued to decline. The inventory pressure needs to be relieved, the production capacity reduction is insufficient, and the supply - demand situation is loose throughout the year, so the mid - term reversal of pig prices is difficult [8] 3.7 Eggs - The price of egg futures decreased with increased positions, while the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. The number of newly - hatched laying hens will be lower than the number of old hens to be culled in the next five months, and the egg inventory is expected to decline. It is recommended to lay out long positions at low levels [9]

Macroeconomic Commentary - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%–3.75% during the March FOMC meeting, indicating limited room for future monetary easing[10] - The Fed slightly raised its inflation forecast from 2.4% to 2.7% and GDP growth from 2.3% to 2.4%, reflecting concerns about inflation driven by rising oil prices[10] - In an optimistic scenario, rate cuts may occur sooner than expected if inflation remains manageable; in a pessimistic scenario, persistent high oil prices could lead the Fed to adopt a hawkish stance[7] PPI Data Insights - The U.S. PPI rose 0.7% month-over-month in February, significantly above the expected 0.3%, and year-over-year it increased to 3.4%, surpassing the 3.0% forecast[2] - Core PPI, excluding food and energy, rose to 3.9% year-over-year, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[2] - The increase in PPI may delay expectations for Fed rate cuts and could push up U.S. Treasury yields while weighing on risk assets[2] Market Observations - U.S. stock indices fell for the fourth consecutive week, with the Dow Jones down 2.11%, S&P 500 down 1.90%, and Nasdaq down 2.07% due to hawkish Fed signals and geopolitical tensions[20] - U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.38% and the 2-year yield at 3.90%, reflecting inflation risks outweighing growth concerns[22] - Gold prices fell 10.5% to $4,490 per ounce, marking the largest weekly decline since 1983, as real interest rates increased[25] Oil and Geopolitical Impact - Oil prices closed at $104 per barrel, driven by geopolitical premiums, and are expected to remain elevated due to ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts[27] - The potential for a U.S. compromise or troop withdrawal related to midterm elections could lead to a "Taco 2.0" scenario, shifting market dynamics towards risk-on trading[27]

Group 1 - The report indicates that high oil prices will not lead to stagflation in China, as improved inflation expectations can catalyze an upward inventory cycle, benefiting manufacturing and cyclical industries amid global energy transition and capacity security [1] - High oil prices impact the A-share market through four main pathways: cost shock, inventory changes, external demand pressure, and valuation effects [4][33] - The report highlights that the cost transmission ability is ranked as upstream > downstream > midstream, with industries like transportation, chemicals, electricity, and construction being more affected by high oil prices [14][18] Group 2 - Historical analysis of the oil price shocks during the Libyan civil war (2010-2012) and the Russia-Ukraine conflict (2021-2022) shows that while upstream sectors benefited initially, sustained high oil prices eventually suppressed external demand and led to stagflation concerns [33][39] - The report emphasizes that the current economic cycle in China is in a recovery phase rather than overheating, suggesting that rising oil prices could accelerate the recovery of the Producer Price Index (PPI) [27][31] - Recommended sectors include those benefiting from the energy transition and capital goods exports, such as power equipment, new energy vehicles, and construction materials, which are expected to see price increases and inventory replenishment [4][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The market outlook is recommended [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the end of 2025, multiple factors have jointly promoted the global "quasi-reflation trade", and commodities have shown a resonant upward trend. The attack by the US and Israel on Iran has significantly changed the previous macro - environment, and if the conflict persists, the financial market will likely shift towards a "recession" trade [1] - The impact of this attack on Iran on the crude - oil price far exceeds historical similar situations, and there are concerns that it will more severely affect the macro - economy. The gold price during this conflict may be weak, and the US dollar index may show more resilience in the short - to - medium term but will tend to weaken in the long run [1] - Copper prices are expected to rebound, but if the US dollar index is not weak in the short - to - medium term, the time for copper prices to bottom - out and rebound may be slower, and the increase may be limited. If the conflict lasts, the "stagflation" stage caused by supply constraints may not last, and the risk of commodity price decline in a "recession" environment is accumulating [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - perspective on Commodity Prices - **Before the attack**: Since December 2025, due to valuation repair, demand recovery, global interest - rate cuts and improved supply - demand at the micro - level, the commodity prices have gradually turned pro - cyclical, and the financial market has shown characteristics of "quasi - reflation trade" [11][13] - **After the attack**: The attack on February 28 has affected the macro - economic demand and monetary policy direction. The "quasi - reflation trade" environment has been damaged, and the financial market may enter a "recession" trading environment [18] 3.2 Historical Experience for Commodity Trends - **Impact on crude - oil prices**: In the seven armed conflicts the US participated in since World War II, the impact of this attack on Iran on crude - oil prices far exceeds historical similar situations, with an oil - price increase of 47.07% [31] - **Impact on gold prices**: During the Gulf War and this attack on Iran, gold prices declined. The main reason is that the market's expectation of monetary easing was postponed due to concerns about inflation [36][38] - **Impact on the US dollar index**: In the short - to - medium term, the US dollar index may be more resilient due to sufficient US oil production and the possible strengthening of the "oil - dollar" system, but it will tend to weaken in the long run [41] - **Impact on copper prices**: After conflicts, copper prices generally show a "U" - shaped trend. If the US dollar index is not weak in the short - to - medium term, the time for copper prices to bottom - out and rebound may be slower, and the increase may be limited [46][47] 3.3 Changes in Commodity Fundamentals Caused by the Attack - The attack has inhibited the export of products from the Middle East, affecting the production of products such as crude oil and the raw - material supply of downstream industries. If the conflict persists, the "stagflation" stage may not last, and the risk of commodity price decline in a "recession" environment is accumulating [53][57]

Market Overview - Global capital markets are focused on the ongoing Middle East conflict, which is expected to persist in the short term, leading to sustained high oil prices[5] - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year has decreased, with a slight probability of a rate hike emerging, reinforcing global "stagflation" trading consensus[5] - Major global stock markets have largely declined in unison, reflecting these concerns[5] Historical Context - Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, oil prices surged, significantly driving inflation and causing substantial volatility in global equity markets[7] - During the initial downturn, all sectors weakened, with coal, real estate, and banking showing the least decline, each with a drop of less than 9%[7] - The subsequent recovery phase saw the new energy sector lead the market, with power equipment, automotive, and non-ferrous metals showing significant gains, particularly power equipment which rebounded over 55%[7] Investment Strategy - Short-term recommendations focus on dividend and stable styles due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and high oil prices, which may lead to volatility in A-shares[29] - Mid-term strategies should target the new energy sector and high-growth HALO industries benefiting from AI expansion, with a focus on sectors like photovoltaic equipment and battery manufacturing, which are expected to see significant profit growth by 2026[3][29] HALO Industry Insights - The HALO (Heavy Assets, Low Obsolescence) concept is gaining traction, characterized by business models based on large physical assets with low technological obsolescence risk[17] - The top ten HALO industries expected to see the highest net profit growth by 2026 include photovoltaic equipment, coking, batteries, and shipping ports[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, geopolitical events exceeding forecasts, and overseas liquidity conditions not meeting projections[30]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the stock index is "Oscillating" [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The escalation of the Middle - East situation and concerns about stagflation are suppressing the stock market. The global stock market continues to be under pressure due to geopolitical factors such as the continuous escalation of the US - Iran situation and the substantial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The expectation of stagflation has escalated again. In the stagflation trading, "inflation" has been initially priced, while "stagnation" has not been fully traded. For the A - share market, there have been significant recent declines, and risk - aversion trading is dominant. In the short term, as the war situation expands, there are few opportunities for the stock index. It is recommended to take a risk - averse strategy and wait in a low - position until the situation becomes clear [2][10] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week View and Overview of Macro Key Events - Next week's view: The escalation of the Middle - East situation and concerns about stagflation are suppressing the stock market. The global stock market continues to be under pressure, and the expectation of stagflation has escalated again. For the A - share market, there have been significant declines, and risk - aversion trading is dominant. In the short term, there are few opportunities for the stock index, and a risk - averse strategy is recommended [10] 3.2 One - Week Market Quotes Overview 3.2.1 Global Stock Market Weekly Overview - From March 16th to March 20th, the global stock market denominated in US dollars declined. The MSCI Global Index fell 1.79%. Among them, emerging markets (- 0.42%) > frontier markets (- 1.08%) > developed markets (- 1.97%). The South Korean stock market rose 5.39%, leading the global stock market, while the South African stock market fell 5.62%, performing the worst globally [11] 3.2.2 Chinese Stock Market Weekly Overview - From March 16th to March 20th, Chinese equities declined significantly, with Hong Kong stocks > A - shares > Chinese concept stocks. Among A - share indices, the ChiNext Index rose 1.26% weekly, the only rising index, while the micro - cap stock index performed the worst, with a decline of 6.91%. The average daily trading volume of A - shares this week was 22,113 billion yuan, a decrease of 287.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week [14] 3.2.3 Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets - Most of the global GICS primary industries declined this week. The leading industry was energy (+ 3.05%), and the lagging industry was materials (- 5.81%). In the Chinese market, the financial sector had the smallest decline (- 1.05%), and the materials sector was the worst (- 10.44%) [18] 3.2.4 Weekly Overview of China A - share CITIC Primary Industries - Among China A - share CITIC primary industries this week, 2 industries rose (12 last week), and 28 industries fell (18 last week). The industry with the largest increase was communications (+ 1.71%), and the industry with the largest decline was non - ferrous metals (- 11.91%) [21] 3.2.5 Weekly Overview of China A - share Styles: Large - cap Growth Dominates - This week, growth outperformed value, and the market - capitalization style favored large - cap stocks [25] 3.2.6 Overview of Futures Index Basis - There are relevant data on the annualized basis rate of the current - quarter contracts of IH, IF, IC, and IM (excluding dividends), but specific data is not presented in the summary text [29][31] 3.3 Overview of Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast 3.3.1 Broad - based Index Valuation - Presented the PE and PB data of various broad - based indices such as the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 100, etc. this week, their eight - year percentile, the values at the beginning of the year, and the changes during the year [33] 3.3.2 Primary Industry Valuation - Presented the PE and PB data of various primary industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, etc. this week, their eight - year percentile, the values at the beginning of the year, and the changes during the year [34] 3.3.3 Equity Risk Premium of Broad - based Indices - The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 increased slightly this week [35][40] 3.3.4 Consensus Earnings Growth Rate of Broad - based Indices - The expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 300 in 2025 was adjusted down to 7.45%, and in 2026 it was adjusted up to 10.46%; the expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 500 in 2025 was adjusted down to 18.57%, and in 2026 it was adjusted up to 24.33%; the expected earnings growth rate of the CSI 1000 in 2025 was adjusted down to 16.60%, and in 2026 it was adjusted up to 25.23% [41] 3.4 Liquidity and Capital Flow Tracking 3.4.1 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - This week, the 10 - year bond yield decreased, the 1 - year bond yield decreased, and the spread widened. The US dollar index was 99.5, and the offshore RMB was 6.9062 [51] 3.4.2 Tracking of Trading - type Funds - This week, the average daily trading volume of north - bound funds decreased by 17.6 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance decreased by 1 billion yuan compared to last week [50] 3.4.3 Tracking of Funds Flowing in through ETFs - There are 30 on - market ETFs tracking the CSI 300, 29 on - market ETFs tracking the CSI 500, 15 on - market ETFs tracking the CSI 1000, and 40 on - market ETFs tracking the CSI A500. This week, the shares of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 increased by 1.4 billion, the shares of ETFs tracking the CSI 500 increased by 0.6 billion, the shares of ETFs tracking the CSI 1000 increased by 0.76 billion, and the shares of ETFs tracking the CSI A500 decreased by 5 billion [54][60] 3.5 Tracking of Domestic Macro High - frequency Data 3.5.1 Supply Side: Tire Operating Rate Recovered after the Spring Festival - There are data on the national blast furnace operating rate, coking enterprise operating rate, domestic crude steel daily output, and tire operating rate, but specific data is not presented in the summary text [63][66] 3.5.2 Consumption Side: Crude Oil Prices Soared - The crude oil price soared to around $103.68 per barrel. The year - on - year growth rate of passenger car wholesale sales rebounded. There are also data on the transaction area of first - hand housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 16 key cities, the land transaction area of 100 large and medium - sized cities, and the listing volume and listing price of second - hand housing nationwide, but specific data is not presented in the summary text [77] 3.5.3 Inflation Observation: Agricultural Product Prices Declined - The prices of agricultural products dropped sharply from a high level. The production material prices have not fully reflected the impact of oil prices [80]

Overall Report Summary - The report analyzes the impact of the Middle East situation and the Fed's hawkish signals on the US economy and major asset prices, warning of the risk of stagflation in the US economy and providing outlooks for various asset classes [11][24] 1. March Fed Meeting Highlights - **Interest Rate Decision**: The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with 11 FOMC members supporting the decision and only one opposing [3] - **Economic Assessment**: The Fed slightly downgraded its assessment of the labor market, and added a statement about the uncertain impact of the Middle East situation on the US economy [3] - **Economic Forecast Adjustments**: The Fed raised GDP growth, inflation, and 2027 unemployment rate expectations, while keeping 2026 unemployment and interest rate paths unchanged [3][4] - **Rate Dot Plot**: The Fed still expects one 25 - basis - point rate cut in 2026 and one in 2027, with a long - term rate forecast of 3.1% [4] 2. Powell's Press Conference Key Points - **Interest Rate Stance**: The Fed won't consider rate cuts without further inflation improvement, and the possibility of rate hikes is back on the table [8] - **Inflation Pressure**: Tariffs and energy are causing a "double shock" to inflation, and commodity inflation may not significantly decline until mid - year [8] - **Labor Market**: The labor market appears stable but has accumulating downside risks, and energy shocks may have a negative impact on employment and the economy [9] - **Energy Crisis**: The energy crisis has led to a significant increase in oil prices, and its impact on the US and global economy cannot be underestimated [9] - **AI Impact**: AI has not significantly boosted productivity at the macro - level and may push up the neutral rate in the short - term [9] - **Tenure**: Powell will continue to serve as "interim chairman" if necessary to ensure the Fed's operation and independence [10] 3. Major Asset Price Movements - **Stock Market**: US stocks tumbled, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones all falling, and only the energy sector rising [12] - **Bond Market**: Yields on US Treasuries of all maturities rose significantly [12] - **Currency Market**: The US dollar rose, the yen fell, and cryptocurrencies were sold off [13] - **Commodity Market**: Gold and silver prices dropped, while oil and gas prices increased [13] 4. Outlook for the US Economy and Fed Policy - **Economic Risks**: The US economy may face stagflation due to weak employment, rising inflation, and high oil prices [14][24] - **Policy Implications**: High inflation may force the Fed to slow down rate cuts or even raise rates, leading to a contraction in global liquidity [24] 5. Outlook for Asset Trends - **US Stocks**: High oil prices and inflation may pop the AI bubble, increasing the vulnerability of US stocks [25] - **US Treasuries**: High oil prices and inflation may lead to a slower rate - cut pace or rate hikes, negatively affecting short - term Treasuries, and long - term yields may continue to rise [25] - **Precious Metals**: Gold's long - term investment logic is strong, but it may experience weak oscillations. Silver is more vulnerable to the Middle East situation [25] - **Commodities**: Energy - related commodities may rise, while other industrial metals may face adjustment pressure [27] - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The renminbi is expected to appreciate as the Chinese economy shows resilience [27] - **Domestic Stock Index Futures**: The domestic stock index futures may have a long - term bullish trend, but short - to - medium - term market volatility may increase, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [27]