Morning session notice 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | COMEX | 黄金期货跌 | 0.47%报 | 5201.50 | 美元/盎司，COMEX | 白银期货跌 | 3.02%报 | 88.86 | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约下跌 | 0.25%报 | 1146.04 | 元/克，沪银主力合约下跌 | 2.93% | | | | | | | 报 | 22219 | 元/千克。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | ...

早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 26 日星期四 Morning session notice 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.14%报 5183.70 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 1.95%报 89.21 | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金主力合约上涨 0.65%报 1153.9元/克，沪银主力合约上涨4%报23365 | | | | | 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 2 月 25 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 3.43 吨， | | | | | 当前持仓量为 1097.62 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 减少 28.18 吨，当前持仓量为 16079.74 ...

Morning session notice 之后，周二 COMEX 黄金和 COMEX 白银有所回调。 【交易策略】 美伊谈判面临不确定性，金银短线波动剧烈，投资者注意控制仓位，防控风险。 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 25 日星期三 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | ...

【黄金期货最新行情】 | 2月24日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1110.10 | -1.61% | 303568 | 153140 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 伊朗地缘政治紧张持续。最新公布的美国经济数据分化，美国去年第四季度经济增长不及预期，但同时 通胀超预期，加剧政策不确定性，市场担忧美国经济陷入滞涨。同时美国贸易政策的模糊性削弱了投资 者对美国资产的信心，并加剧了全球市场波动风险。 【机构观点】 金瑞期货：特朗普关税再次生变+伊朗问题仍持续发酵 短期金银或仍偏强 上一个交易日COMEX黄金期货涨3.29%报5247.90美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨6.87%报88.00美元/盎 司。特朗普IEEPA关税被否并以122条款15%全面关税替代，伊朗问题仍持续发酵，目前市场持续面临 较大不确定性，利好贵金属价格，短期金银或仍偏强。中长期看，全球高债务、地缘风险及白银结构性 短缺等核心支撑未变。Comex黄金运行区间【5150,5250】美元/盎司,沪金运行区间【 ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 24 日星期二 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 2 月 23 日 COMEX 黄金期货涨 3.29%报 5247.90 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 6.87% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 报 88.00 美元/盎司。2 月 13 日沪金主力合约收报 1110.10 元/克，沪银主力合约收 报 19782 元/千克。春节假期，海外金银上涨明显。 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、截至 2 月 23 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 7.72 吨， 当前持仓量为 1086.47 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 增加 312.77 吨，当前持仓量为 15830.38 吨。 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储到 ...

Morning session notice | 56.6，低于预期的 57.3，一年期通胀预期降至 3.4%。 | | --- | | 7、2 月美国标普全球制造业 PMI 初值 51.2，为 7 个月新低，低于预期 52.6，1 月 前值为 52.4；服务业 PMI 初值 52.3，略低于预期 53.0，1 月前值为 52.7，显示商 业活动增速放缓。 | | 8、S&P Global 公布的数据显示，欧元区 2 月综合 PMI 从 1 月的 51.3 升至 51.9， 制造业 PMI 从 49.5 跃升至 50.8，创 44 个月新高，并自去年 8 月以来首次站上 50 荣枯线。服务业 PMI 小幅上升至 51.8，前值 51.6。其中德国经济显著改善，综合 PMI 升至 53.1 的四个月高点，制造业 PMI 达到 50.7，为 2022 年 6 月以来首次进入 扩张区间。 | | 9、央视新闻：有消息称美国总统特朗普已告诉其顾问，他"倾向于在未来数日（对 伊朗）进行初步打击"，然后在未来数月发动一场更大规模的军事打击，迫使伊朗 "屈服"并按美方要求达成协议。美国和伊朗新一轮谈判定于 26 日在瑞士日 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent extreme fluctuations in gold and silver prices, indicating a potential market peak due to significant deviations from the 60-day moving average, with silver deviating by 66% and gold by 25% [1][6] - Historical patterns suggest that extreme surges in silver prices often signal market tops, and these tops are typically not singular points but rather ranges, followed by significant declines to wash out leveraged positions [6][7] - The performance of gold during market fluctuations is highlighted, with past instances showing that while silver experiences volatility, gold tends to remain more stable, suggesting a focus on gold's ability to reach new highs during these periods [7][8] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic narratives in determining the future of gold prices, particularly the narrative surrounding the collapse of the US dollar credit system and the implications of rising US debt levels [12] - It notes that the current debt situation, exacerbated by multiple rounds of quantitative easing and fiscal policies, poses a significant risk to the stability of the US financial system [12] - The potential appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chairman is discussed, with his proposed policies aimed at restoring financial discipline and addressing the debt crisis [12] Group 3 - The article draws parallels between current market conditions and those of early 2018, where rising interest rate expectations led to declines in global markets, including A-shares [24] - It suggests that the recent downturn in precious metals has similarly impacted the broader market, with significant declines observed in various sectors, including energy and commodities [31][32] - The performance of specific funds, such as the Guotou Silver LOF, is highlighted, indicating a significant drop in value and the challenges faced by investors in navigating the current market volatility [29][31]

Group 1: Market Overview - The current market is characterized by high volatility and elevated levels, suggesting that a "long money, long investment" strategy may be a rational choice for investors [3][5][6] - The A-share market's upward momentum is driven by the shifting balance of power between China and the U.S., leading to capital flow and value reassessment [9][10] - Recent market fluctuations indicate strong support levels, with a notable rebound after a brief dip below previous lows, reflecting a robust market sentiment [5][9] Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market is witnessing a consensus on the value of resources in a "weak fiat currency" era, with the Trump administration's interference in Federal Reserve decisions accelerating the price increase logic for commodities [3][6][7] - Coal prices are supported by a recent uptick in spot prices and favorable policies, with the coal sector attracting long-term investment due to its stable high dividend yield [4][15][18] - Gold prices have shown significant volatility, with recent highs nearing $5,600 before dropping below $5,000, yet the long-term fundamentals for gold remain strong, suggesting potential buying opportunities during corrections [4][18][24] Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - The U.S. economy faces challenges, including concerns over "stagflation," which may limit the Federal Reserve's monetary policy options, increasing the appeal of gold as a hedge against asset depreciation [22][23] - Geopolitical tensions in regions like the Middle East and Ukraine contribute to heightened market risk aversion, providing additional support for gold prices [23][24] - China's economic recovery may be accelerated by rising commodity prices, which could help break the negative feedback loop affecting domestic economic growth [11][12]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed signs of recovery after hitting a low, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4117.95 points, down 0.96%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.66%. The ChiNext Index, however, rose by 1.27% due to strong performance from heavyweight stocks [1][20] - Over 2400 stocks rose while nearly 2900 declined, indicating mixed performance among individual stocks. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 2.86 trillion yuan, a decrease of nearly 400 billion yuan from the previous day, reflecting a notable decline in trading sentiment [1][20] Sector Performance - Most sectors experienced declines, with telecommunications and semiconductor sectors leading the gains. Recently strong sectors like metals and mining showed signs of correction [1][21] - The market has been characterized by high volatility, with fluctuations around the 4150-point mark. The influx of external funds initially indicated strong buying intent, but the market subsequently retreated following increased trading in broad-based ETFs [1][21] Investment Strategy - Given the current high volatility in both equity and commodity markets, a long-term investment approach is suggested as a rational choice for investors [1][21] Commodity Market Insights - The driving factors for both equity and commodity markets remain unchanged, with strong medium to long-term investment value still present. The "weak fiat currency" era has led to a consensus that resources are becoming increasingly valuable, accelerated by interventions from the Trump administration affecting Federal Reserve decisions [2][22] - Precious metals and industrial metals are seen as core choices for capital seeking to hedge against currency depreciation risks, pushing commodity prices into a slow upward trend [2][22] A-Share Market Dynamics - The core logic driving the rise of A-shares is the shifting balance of power between China and the U.S., leading to capital flows and value reassessment. The ongoing U.S.-China rivalry is influencing global capital allocation, providing long-term upward momentum for A-shares [4][24] - Quality stocks with core competitiveness in the A-share market, previously undervalued, are now experiencing value reassessment as China's national strength and industrial advantages become more pronounced [4][24] Future Outlook - On a macro level, both the U.S. and China appear to have found new solutions to their domestic issues. The U.S. is adopting a "shrinking plunder" strategy, focusing on core interests while avoiding overextension, which may have profound implications for the global economy and geopolitical landscape [6][25] - For China, the continuous rise in commodity prices, particularly precious metals, may help break the negative feedback loop of prices and accelerate the economic recovery process, potentially exceeding investor expectations [7][26] Investment Focus - The investment strategy should focus on "anti-involution + technology," as the gradual implementation of anti-involution policies is expected to lead to value reassessment in related cyclical sectors. The technology growth sector is also anticipated to receive strong policy support [8][28] - The coal sector has shown resilience, with recent price increases in thermal coal providing support for near-term performance. The market is expected to see a recovery in coal demand due to infrastructure investment and industrial recovery [10][29][31]

Group 1 - Silver prices have surged, reaching historical highs, with prices exceeding $90 per ounce and the gold-silver ratio dropping to 50.57, the lowest in 13 years [1][2] - Since early 2025, silver has outperformed gold, with price increases of 190% for silver compared to 75% for gold, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [1][2] - The traditional correlation between the gold-silver ratio and the U.S. PMI has broken down, as the PMI remains below the growth threshold while the gold-silver ratio has improved [3][4] Group 2 - Silver's strategic resource attributes are being reinforced, leading to potential risks of increased tariffs on silver by the U.S., which could heighten trade disruptions compared to the gold market [4][5] - The importance of silver in industrial applications is growing, particularly in green energy and digital transformation, with silver being crucial for solar panels and electric vehicles [5][6] - The global silver supply has become more rigid since 2015, with annual supply levels stabilizing between 30,000 to 33,000 tons, while demand has surged due to industrial applications [8][9] Group 3 - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to inventory dynamics, with a significant shift in global silver stocks due to tariff expectations and market arbitrage [7][8] - The valuation of silver is influenced by both its commodity attributes and its financial attributes, with current market conditions highlighting its commodity characteristics due to supply shortages [8][9] - Industrial demand for silver, particularly from the photovoltaic sector, has been a major driver of price increases, with global demand for silver in solar applications reaching 6,146.05 tons in 2024, a 67% increase from 2022 [10][11] Group 4 - The current gold-silver ratio of 50 suggests a potential turning point in the market, with historical patterns indicating that such low ratios may precede market corrections or shifts [11][12] - Analysts predict that the gold-silver ratio may stabilize within the 40-80 range, influenced by the dynamics of silver inventory and market balance [12][13] - The ongoing economic conditions, including inflation and geopolitical tensions, are drawing parallels to the 1970s, suggesting that the current precious metals bull market may continue [13][14]