航运市场运力调整
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银河期货航运日报-20251028
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 11:20
Group 1: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Core View - CMA's attempt to resume return voyages through the Suez Canal and MSK's reduction of November spot quotes led to a decline in market sentiment and a slight correction in the EC market. The spot freight rate has increased significantly, and the final settlement price of the EC2510 contract is 1161.63 points. MSK lowered its Shanghai - Rotterdam quote for Week 46 by $150 compared to last week, and attention should be paid to the price - adjustment actions of other shipping companies [6]. - The spread between mainstream shipping companies in the spot freight rate has widened again. Some companies have lower SPOT prices due to cargo - booking pressure, but the spot price center is expected to gradually rise. It is expected that the spot freight rate will gradually increase from November to December, and shipping companies may continue to announce price increases. The demand from November to December is expected to improve, and the supply capacity in December will increase slightly. The sanctions between China and the US will lead to cost increases and short - term supply chain disruptions. The progress of the cease - fire negotiation in the Middle East is tortuous, and the sentiment of the China - US tariff negotiation has eased [7]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: EC2512 faces short - term correction pressure. It is recommended to reduce positions and take profits on rallies. Attention should be paid to the Palestine - Israel negotiation, China - US tariff negotiation, and port congestion [8]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] Group 2: Industry News - According to Drewry data, the east - west main shipping market is undergoing a new round of capacity adjustment. From October 27 to November 30, 58 out of 716 scheduled voyages have been cancelled, accounting for 8%. The Asia - Europe/Mediterranean and Trans - Pacific Eastbound routes have the most cancelled voyages. In October, the number of blank sailings reached 93, a significant increase from September, and the total capacity decreased by about 7%. In November, the market capacity is expected to increase by 8% and the number of blank sailings will decrease to 53 [11]. - On October 27, Israeli Defense Minister Katz announced that the emergency state in southern Israel would be lifted on the 28th. Hamas is discussing the next phase of the Gaza cease - fire agreement in Egypt, which involves disarmament, and the progress is tortuous [11]. Group 3: Market Data Futures Disk - The closing price of EC2512 is 1788.3 points, up 0.75% from the previous day. Different contracts have different price changes, trading volume changes, and open interest changes [4]. Spread Structure - There are different spreads and spread changes between different contract months, such as the spread between EC12 - EC02 being 240 with a change of 36.2 [4]. Container Freight Rate - The SCFIS European line index is 1312.71 points, with a week - on - week increase of 15.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 40.54%. Different routes have different freight rate changes [4]. Fuel Cost - The price of WTI crude oil near - month contract is $60.89 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.87%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month contract is $65.04 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 9.2% [4]