日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普称伊朗军事能力遭重创 否认被以色 列"拖入战争" [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-03-04 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普称伊朗军事能力遭重创 否认被以色列"拖入战争" 市场关注的焦点继续在美伊战争，能源价格走高引发通胀担忧， 形成流动性紧缩，市场风险偏好大幅度走低。 宏观策略（股指期货） 避险情绪升级，A 股放量下跌 综 伊朗战争形势逐渐外溢，市场担忧战争形势失控，风险资产大 幅下杀。同时由于对通胀的担忧导致加息交易有所冒头。市场 当前交易逻辑混乱，我们仍建议以避险为主，适当减仓。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行 2 月公开市场国债买卖净投放 500 亿元 报 滞胀压力若上升，债市难以走出单边行情，极限点位有交易反 向逻辑而反转的可能，建议关注波段操作机会。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 全国政协十四届四次会议 4 日下午开幕，会期 7 天 虽然有地缘政治因素扰动，能源价格大幅上涨，但钢价延续弱 势震荡格局，核心依然在于基本面的压制。预计终端需求实质 性改善前，短期钢价依然难有明显驱动。 能源化工（甲醇） 卡塔尔能源公司停止甲醇生产 预计短期甲醇期货 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 芝加哥联储行长：若通胀回落 美联储可能多 次降息 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-27 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 芝加哥联储行长：若通胀回落 美联储可能多次降息 伊朗外长称美伊谈判取得进展，市场风险偏好回落，美元指数 走低。 宏观策略（股指期货） A 股放量震荡整理 综 市场成交逐渐放量，更多流动性回归场内交易，这是我们判断 春季躁动仍未结束的原因之一。海外 AI 泡沫担忧逐渐深化，A 股或受映射。科技股短期回调压力增加，但中期仍看好。 巴西 2 月前两周出口糖和糖蜜 131.38 万吨 本榨季印度糖估产大幅下调 165 万吨至 2930 万吨，这将支撑印 度国内糖价，并限制其出口量，同时也有利于减轻本榨季全球 糖市供应过剩压力。 有色金属（碳酸锂） 芬兰启动欧洲首座商业化锂辉石矿山运营 短周期内仍以偏多思路看待。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 3205 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 稳地产政策可以理解为临时扰动，在其他利空出现之前，债市 难以持续下跌，部分时刻还会存在反弹动力。不过后续潜在的 风险因素仍然存在。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 巴西 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美联储再度强调独立性，中国央行继续适度 宽松 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-11 宏观策略（股指期货） 《求是》发文加快培育未来产业 A 股缩量窄幅震荡，科技股依然领先。港股近期止跌回升，或迎 来右侧配置机会。总体看国内权益风险可控，春季躁动可期。 宏观策略（黄金） 美联储洛根：货币政策独立性是根本 综 金价震荡收跌，白银走弱。节前资金逐渐减仓流出贵金属，美 联储官员讲话捍卫独立性，叠加货币政策短期步入观望阶段， 缺乏增量刺激。美国 1 月零售销售数据意外走弱。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行发布 2025 年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告 报 市场消息面较为平静，股市波动不大，资金面略显收敛，国债 期货窄幅震荡。短期市场存在上涨动力，不过追涨性价比不高， 待市场上涨动力趋缓后关注做空机会。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 16 家车企公布 1 月产销数据，12 家销量同比增长 钢价延续弱势震荡，节前基本面压力加大，各品种累库压力上 升，加上订单情况一般，市场情绪疲弱，均对钢价形成压制。 但市场谨慎情绪也降低了节后风险，关注是否有低估机会。 农产品（棉花） 棉纱产销 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the unaddressed risk of escalating geopolitical situation and the US considering a maritime blockade on Iran, the far - month contracts are oscillating strongly. The spot settlement is slightly below market expectations. The demand for shipping is reaching its peak and then declining, and the supply shows a slight decrease in January's shipping capacity. The traditional off - season for shipping rates is approaching, and the expected rush of shipments is less than anticipated. Geopolitical issues and weather conditions may affect shipping schedules [6][7] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading of the 04 contract, and partially take profits and hold the 6 - 10 calendar spread [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Futures Market - Different futures contracts have different closing prices, price changes, and volume and position changes. For example, EC2602 closed at 1,717.5, down 1.5 points or 0.09%, with a trading volume of 432.0 hands (up 16.76%) and an open interest of 2,812.0 hands (down 11.74%) [4] - The month - spread structure shows various price differences and their changes. For instance, the EC02 - EC04 spread is 468, down 22.2 [4] 3.1.2 Container Freight Rates - Various container freight rates show different degrees of decline. For example, the SCFIS European Line index is 1859.31 points, down 4.86% week - on - week and 24.61% year - on - year. The SCFI comprehensive index is 1457.86, down 7.39% week - on - week and 36.36% year - on - year [4] 3.1.3 Fuel Costs - WTI crude oil near - month contract is priced at $63.17 per barrel, up 1.49% week - on - week and down 10.85% year - on - year. Brent crude oil near - month contract is priced at $67.69 per barrel, up 1.39% week - on - week and down 8.7% year - on - year [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.2.1 Market Analysis - Geopolitical risks have not been resolved, and the far - month contracts are oscillating strongly. The spot settlement of the European Line is slightly below expectations. The demand for shipping is peaking and then declining, and the supply of shipping capacity in January has decreased slightly. The traditional off - season for shipping rates is approaching, and the rush of shipments is less than expected. Geopolitical and weather factors may affect shipping schedules [6][7] 3.2.2 Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: It is recommended to wait and see for the 04 contract due to many short - term disturbances, differences in the rush of shipments, and unresolved Iranian situation risks [8] - Arbitrage: Partially take profits and hold the 6 - 10 calendar spread [9] 3.3 Industry News - Trump warned that the next attack on Iran would be more severe, and Iran is willing to dialogue with the US on the basis of mutual respect [10][11] - Israel is preparing for possible retaliation from Iran due to a potential US attack. The US is considering a maritime blockade on Iran [11] - Maersk reported that weather has affected freight traffic to and from Northern Europe, and the docks in the western Mediterranean have stopped operating [11] 3.4 Related Attachments - There are multiple figures showing various shipping - related indices and container freight rates over different time periods, including the SCFIS European Line index, SCFIS US West Line index, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates for different routes [13][18][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term due to increased domestic conflicts over illegal immigration in the US [11][12]. - US stocks are expected to maintain high - level volatility during the earnings season, with increased volatility [16][17]. - Precious metals are likely to see increased short - term volatility, and investors should be aware of the risk of a pullback after a continuous sharp rise [20]. - The bond market is experiencing a short - term rebound, and it is more cost - effective to short after the upward momentum fades [21][22]. - The stock index long - position strategy should be continued [23][24]. - Coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term as supply is at a high level and downstream restocking has ended [25][26]. - Steel prices are expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to hedge inventory at high prices if there is a price rebound [31]. - Palm oil is likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short - term, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be supported before the US biofuel policy is released [35]. - The outlook for soybean meal exports is not optimistic, and the 5 - month contract is likely to be weak if there are no major abnormalities in South American production [37][38]. - The domestic sugar market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term due to seasonal supply pressure and limited demand [42]. - Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner before the Spring Festival, with long - term bullish views unchanged [47]. - Copper prices are likely to be volatile in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [51]. - Lead prices are expected to be in low - level volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see both unilaterally and in arbitrage [53][54]. - Zinc prices are expected to remain in high - level volatility, and it is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts for arbitrage, and wait and see in the domestic - foreign arbitrage [57]. - Lithium carbonate prices are likely to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and a bullish strategy is recommended with attention to position control and risk management [60][61]. - Tin prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of supply recovery expectations and consumption recovery [65]. - Nickel prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [66][67]. - EU carbon prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [68][69]. - Oil prices are expected to be supported by short - term geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions [71][72]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to see a mild recovery in processing fees around the Spring Festival [76]. - The container shipping index is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [78]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Europe is estimated to need $1 trillion to restructure its defense industry. The shooting of a US citizen by ICE has intensified domestic conflicts over illegal immigration, causing the dollar index to weaken. The Trump administration is expected to maintain a tough stance on illegal immigration, and market volatility will remain high. The dollar index is expected to weaken in the short - term [9][11][12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in the US in January was 56.4, reaching a five - month high. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9. The US economy shows resilience, and the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short - term. The market is worried about the Fed's independence, and US stocks are expected to maintain high - level volatility during the earnings season [13][14][16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US is expected to obtain "sovereignty" over the area where the US military base on Greenland is located. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in January was 51.9. The New York Federal Reserve Bank conducted a "rate check" on the US dollar/yen exchange rate. Precious metals continued to rise strongly on Friday, reaching a new high. The market is trading on the safe - haven and de - dollarization needs caused by the tense situation between the US and Europe. The sharp rise of the yen and the fall of the dollar after the US and Japan jointly signaled to intervene in the foreign exchange market boosted the precious metals. However, the short - term market is dominated by sentiment and funds, and the risk is increasing. Precious metals are likely to see increased short - term volatility, and investors should be aware of the risk of a pullback [18][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 125 billion yuan, with a net investment of 38.3 billion yuan. The bond market continued to strengthen, mainly due to the alleviation of previous concerns. However, there are still long - term negative factors, and it is more cost - effective to short after the upward momentum fades [21][22]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The CSRC issued a guidance on the performance comparison benchmark for public funds. Due to strong bullish expectations, funds flowed into small - cap stocks, causing market differentiation. The regulatory authorities are expected to take stricter and more precise measures to limit excessive speculation, and the market is likely to remain in high - level volatility. It is recommended to continue to hold the long - position strategy for the stock index [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Changzhi market remained stable. The supply in some areas increased slightly, while the downstream restocking ended, and the market sentiment declined. Coking coal is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [25][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The global crude steel output in 2025 was 1.849 billion tons. In mid - January 2026, the daily output of key steel enterprises decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. Before the Spring Festival, steel prices are expected to be volatile and may rebound slightly. It is recommended to hedge inventory at high prices if there is a price rebound [27][29][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The EU plans to gradually phase out soybean biofuels. The establishment of the Southeast Asian Sustainable Aviation Fuel Council. The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills increased, and the estimated volume for the next week is higher. The palm oil market is supported by inventory reduction and Ramadan expectations, and the price of soybean oil is expected to be supported before the US biofuel policy is released [32][34][35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US weekly soybean export sales reached the highest level of the year. The domestic oil mill soybean crushing volume increased, and it is expected to remain high. The outlook for soybean meal exports is not optimistic, and the 5 - month contract is likely to be weak if there are no major abnormalities in South American production [36][37][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports increased. The sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil decreased in the second half of December. The domestic sugar market is under seasonal supply pressure, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [39][41][42]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The import of Indian cotton yarn decreased, while the import of polyester - cotton blended yarn increased. The EU's clothing import rebounded in November 2025, and the import from China increased. The US cotton export signing reached a new high, but the export progress is still behind. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner before the Spring Festival, with long - term bullish views unchanged [43][44][47]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Chilean contractor protests blocked access to mines. Tibet Julong Copper's second - phase project was put into operation. The Chilean Mining Association warned that it will take several years for copper supply to increase. The short - term macro factors support copper prices, but the fundamental factors may suppress price increases. Copper prices are likely to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for opportunities to go long at low prices in the medium - term [48][50][51]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead spread was at a discount. The production of primary lead was stable, the profit of secondary lead refineries narrowed, and the consumption of lead batteries was weak. The social inventory increased, and lead prices are expected to be in low - level volatility. It is recommended to wait and see both unilaterally and in arbitrage [52][53][54]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - A gold mine in Mexico was temporarily shut down. The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and MMG's zinc ore output in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased. The zinc concentrate port inventory increased, the smelting profit improved slightly, and the demand was affected by multiple factors. Zinc prices are expected to remain in high - level volatility. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, pay attention to long - position opportunities in the far - month contracts for arbitrage, and wait and see in the domestic - foreign arbitrage [55][56][57]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The retail and wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in the first 18 days of January 2026 decreased year - on - year. Lithium carbonate prices rose sharply last week. The demand is strong, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to take a bullish strategy with attention to position control and risk management [58][60][61]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The first domestic satellite computing power module was launched. The LME tin spread was at a discount, and the inventory increased. The import of tin concentrate in December increased year - on - year. The supply is expected to increase in 2026, but there are uncertainties. The demand is weak, and tin prices are expected to be in wide - range volatility in the short - term [62][63][65]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The port logistics of the Indonesian Qing Shan Industrial Park was suspected of monopoly. The nickel ore production quota in Indonesia is expected to be adjusted, and the global primary nickel gap is expected to be more than 100,000 metric tons. The raw material price rose, and the demand for nickel salt increased. Nickel prices are expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices [66][67]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of the EUA main contract decreased. The EU carbon price remained high and volatile last week. The CoT data helped boost the market. The carbon price is expected to be strong in the short - term [68][69]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The production of a Kazakhstani oil field was delayed due to a power failure and export problems. The number of US oil rigs increased. The oil price rose on Friday, supported by the risk of supply disruptions and the increase in diesel cracking spreads [70][71][72]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotation of bottle - chip factories continued to rise. The polyester raw material price rose strongly, and the bottle - chip factory quotation increased. The market trading atmosphere was fair, and the downstream was cautious. The industry operating rate decreased, and the inventory pressure was transferred smoothly. The processing fee is expected to recover mildly around the Spring Festival [73][75][76]. 3.2.16 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - Wildfires and rough seas restricted the operation of some ports in Chile. The short - term market is weak, and the European - line futures are expected to be weakly volatile. Attention should be paid to whether the index will be higher due to container dumping and late ship departures [77][78].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The near - month futures market generally follows the spot price trend, with the market opening high and closing low today, while the far - month market remains volatile due to geopolitical conflicts. The subsequent index center is expected to gradually rise [6]. - The shipping demand from December to January is expected to gradually improve, and the supply of shipping capacity has changed slightly. The geopolitical situation may have an impact on fuel costs and the trade pattern, but currently, the impact on shipping routes is limited [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation Market Analysis - On January 7, 2026, EC2602 closed at 1,779.1 points, a - 5% decline from the previous day's closing price. On December 26, the SCFI European line quote was $1,690/TEU, a + 10.24% increase month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European line index released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on Monday was 1,795.83 points, a + 3% increase month - on - month, slightly lower than expected [6]. - In terms of spot freight rates, MSK has adjusted its prices. Other shipping companies have also set different price ranges for January. The shipping capacity from Shanghai to the five Nordic ports from January to March 2026 is 306,100/271,900/283,300 TEU per week on average, with slight changes at the beginning of the week. The FAL8 route of the OA Alliance will add an 8,500 - TEU ship at the end of January and an empty voyage in February [7]. Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: Consider closing all long positions in EC2602 at high prices and pay attention to the rhythm of the freight rate reaching the peak [8]. - Arbitrage: Wait for opportunities to enter the market at low prices for the 6 - 10 positive spread arbitrage [9]. 2. Industry News - China is considering tightening the export license review of rare earths to Japan, which may have a significant impact on the Japanese economy [10]. - Trump announced that the interim authorities in Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of high - quality, sanctioned crude oil to the United States [10]. - Iran stated that it is ready to respond decisively to any aggression or hostile behavior [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US November non - farm payroll data showed an unexpected increase in new jobs, but the unemployment rate rose, wage growth was below expectations, and the US dollar index weakened [1][19]. - A - share and Hong Kong stock markets had a unilateral decline, possibly due to the stricter tax assessment of high - tech enterprises. High - valuation stocks were under pressure, and the market correction was a way to relieve the pressure. The national team would still support the market later [2][15]. - The positive macro - narrative was difficult to be falsified in the short term, making the bond market a weak asset. However, the problem of the fragile micro - trading structure should improve in early next year [3][25]. - The price of Indonesian low - calorie thermal coal on December 16 was weak. The port coal price fell below 750 yuan and was expected to continue to decline until mid - January, with the port 5500 - calorie coal price potentially testing the key point around 700 yuan [4][27]. - The merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources was approved by Canada. The weakening of the US November non - farm data supported copper prices, but there were still concerns about the short - term fundamentals, and copper prices were likely to continue to fluctuate at a high level [5][47]. - US API crude oil inventories decreased significantly, but oil prices continued to fall due to concerns about oversupply [6][56]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - In November, non - farm employment increased by 64,000, slightly exceeding the expected 45,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021. The December preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI was 51.8 (expected 52.1, previous value 52.2), and the Services PMI preliminary value was 52.9 (expected 54, previous value 54.1). Gold prices fluctuated and closed down. The market's expectation of a January interest rate cut slightly increased, but more data was needed to verify the weakening of the employment market. Short - term gold prices continued to fluctuate [11][12]. - Investment advice: Gold prices are volatile, and attention should be paid to the回调 risk of silver [13]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - share and Hong Kong stock markets had a unilateral adjustment. A - share major indexes declined, with the ChiNext Index falling more than 2%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.11%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.51%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.1%. The Hang Seng Index fell 1.54%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.74%. The decline might be related to the stricter tax assessment of high - tech enterprises, and high - valuation stocks faced pressure. The subsequent national team would support the market [14][15]. - Investment advice: Allocate long positions in each stock index evenly [16]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures (US Dollar Index)) - Trump opposed the view that the Fed chairman cannot be a close friend. Trump will "soon" announce the Fed chairman candidate and will interview Fed Governor Christopher Waller this Wednesday. The US November non - farm data showed an unexpected increase in new jobs, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, and wage growth was below expectations. The US dollar index weakened [17][19]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index is expected to weaken [20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US November Markit Composite PMI hit a six - month low. In November, non - farm employment increased slightly better than expected, but the unemployment rate rose to a new high since September 2021, indicating a continuous cooling of the labor market. The November data had a large error due to the government shutdown, and more data was needed to verify the weakening speed of the employment market. This employment data had limited impact on boosting the US stock market, and the recent weakness of the US stock market mainly stemmed from concerns about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure. - Investment advice: Short - term volatility remains difficult to reduce, and the US stock market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 135.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on December 16, with a net investment of 18 billion yuan. The TL trend diverged from the stock market, T, and active bonds. The positive macro - narrative was difficult to be falsified in the short term, making the bond market a weak asset, but the problem of the fragile micro - trading structure should improve in early next year. - Investment advice: The odds of going long for trading positions are high, but the probability of success is low. It is recommended to pay attention to the right - hand side long - entry opportunities [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - On December 16, the price of Indonesian low - calorie thermal coal was weak. The port coal price fell below 750 yuan and was expected to continue to decline. Supply pressure eased, and demand weakened after the previous replenishment. Considering seasonal pressure, the overall coal price was expected to decline until mid - January, with the port 5500 - calorie coal price potentially testing the key point around 700 yuan. - Investment advice: The port coal price is expected to continue to decline until mid - January, with the port 5500 - calorie coal price potentially testing the key point around 700 yuan [27]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Fenix Resources planned to increase its iron ore production target to 420 - 480 million tons in the 2026 fiscal year, 470 - 530 million tons in the 2027 fiscal year, and 540 - 600 million tons in the 2028 fiscal year. Iron ore prices continued to fluctuate weakly, and the fundamentals were weak. However, supported by rigid demand for molten iron and low inventory, there was still sporadic buying. The supply - demand pressure was gradually increasing, and the market was concerned about policy changes after January 1. - Investment advice: Iron ore prices will continue to fluctuate weakly. The market is concerned about policy changes such as port storage fees and steel export licenses after January 1 [28]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - On December 16, the成交 ratio of imported soybean auctions decreased slightly. In October, Brazilian factories processed 4.39 million tons of soybeans. Due to the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America and concerns about US soybean exports, CBOT soybeans continued to fall, and CBOT soybean oil also declined, affecting domestic oils. The domestic soybean meal futures price maintained a weak oscillation. The supply of raw materials was abundant. - Investment advice: The cost of imported soybeans in China has decreased, and the soybean meal inventory is high. The soybean meal May contract is recommended to be shorted on rallies [30]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The domestic corn starch spot market price was generally stable. Some enterprises slightly lowered prices to stimulate downstream purchasing. The market trading atmosphere was average, and the demand was weak. The theoretical profit of starch enterprises remained good. - Investment advice: In the short term, the price difference between corn flour may not have a fundamental basis for a large deviation from the processing cost. It may widen again after approaching the previous low [32]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - On December 16, the domestic corn price was stable with a weak trend. The price of deep - processed corn in the Northeast and North China was mainly stable, and the port price decreased slightly. Affected by the expected policy auctions and the expected acceleration of farmers' sales, the spot price weakened slightly, and the futures price continued to decline. - Investment advice: In the medium - to - long - term, the price difference between 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 is expected to show a reverse spread during the farmers' grain - selling season. In the medium - to - short - term, a short - selling strategy on rallies for 03 and 05 contracts is recommended. In the medium - to - long - term, pay attention to the long - entry opportunities on dips for 07 and 09 contracts, but the unilateral strategy should be more based on drivers [34]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - From December 1 - 15, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 2.97% month - on - month. The oil market was still weakly oscillating. For palm oil, the production decline was limited, and the supply pressure could only be relieved if the decline increased or export data improved. Soybean and rapeseed oils currently lacked further drivers. - Investment advice: Although the high - frequency data of Malaysian palm oil production turned negative, the supply pressure in the producing area has not been released. It is not yet the time for unilateral long - entry. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options [37]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry's controlling shareholder pledged 18 million shares. Tiankang Bio planned to acquire a 51% stake in Xinjiang Qiangdu Animal Husbandry for 1.275 billion yuan. The pig industry was in a loss - making range, and there was no clear signal of large - scale production capacity reduction. In the short term, the spot price depends on the supply side, and the main contract is expected to continue to oscillate. In the medium - to - long - term, if deep losses and the epidemic resonate, the far - month contracts may have a valuation repair window. - Investment advice: Hold short positions in the near - month contracts cautiously and gradually pay attention to the medium - to - long - term layout opportunities for far - month contracts at low levels [38]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On December 15, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $51.52 per ton. The first batch of lead ingots from the Xinjiang Huoshaoyun lead - zinc mine project was officially launched. Anhui Fuyang launched a Level II emergency response, and local regenerative lead smelters cut production by 50%. LME lead and Shanghai lead both oscillated and declined. The supply of regenerative lead may be under pressure, and the demand is gradually weakening. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies in the short term. For arbitrage, wait and see [41]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On December 15, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a discount of $31.61 per ton. The first - phase ignition trial operation of Zhongkuang Resources' Tsumeb smelter was carried out. Nyrstar reached an agreement with Korea Zinc on the acquisition of assets in Tennessee. LME zinc inventories increased significantly, the contango structure appeared, and the delivery risk weakened. Domestic smelters' production cuts were gradually realized, and zinc demand was generally strong. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, pay attention to mid - term long - entry opportunities on dips. For arbitrage, hold long positions in the month - spread positive arbitrage; maintain the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [43]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources was approved by Canada. Peru's copper production in October increased by 4.8% year - on - year. Korea Zinc planned to invest $7.4 billion in building a smelter in the United States. The weakening of the US November non - farm data supported copper prices, but there were concerns about the short - term fundamentals. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, copper prices are likely to continue to fluctuate at a high level. Maintain a long - entry strategy on dips. For arbitrage, wait and see [47]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventories decreased by 84 tons, and SHFE nickel futures warrants increased by 821 tons. The Fed's dovish statement boosted risk appetite, but the US economy was highly dependent on AI investment. Indonesia gave a 30 - day grace period to enterprises that did not apply for RKAB, and the supply may not be disrupted before January. The price of nickel ore is high, and the cost of Indonesian iron plants is in a loss state. The demand for nickel sulfate is expected to decrease. - Investment advice: In the short term, the disk is expected to run weakly at a low level. Do not chase short positions. Wait for a rebound to lay out short positions. In the mid - term, pay attention to Indonesia's contraction of RKAB quotas and cooperate with some call options [50]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Li - FT Power acquired Winsome Resources for approximately $86.8 million. The central economic work conference may support the power demand. The resumption of the Xiawo mine may be postponed to mid - January. The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase, and the inventory decline rate will slow down. The downstream purchasing willingness has decreased, and the production of cathode materials has declined. - Investment advice: In the short term, the strong inventory decline trend and the delay of the large - factory resumption support the bullish sentiment. After the resumption, combined with the decline in off - season demand, the inventory decline rate will slow down and turn to inventory accumulation. The disk may face a correction. In the long - term, adopt a long - entry strategy on dips [53]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - On December 15, the [LME0 - 3 tin] was at a premium of $50 per ton. Domestic tin inventories continued to accumulate. Indonesia's tin exports in November increased significantly. The supply of tin ore from Myanmar is increasing, and the production of the Bisie mine in Congo (Kinshasa) is expected to increase. The spot market trading is dull, and the demand is weak. - Investment advice: Tin prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. Be vigilant against the risk of price decline due to the easing of geopolitical unrest or capital outflow [55]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventories decreased by 9.322 million barrels in the week ending December 12, but gasoline and refined oil inventories increased. Oil prices continued to fall due to concerns about oversupply, and the possible progress in Russia - Ukraine negotiations also reduced the risk premium. - Investment advice: Oil prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [57]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The closing price of CEA on December 16 was 58.71 yuan per ton, up 1.4% from the previous day. After the release of the quota allocation plan for three major industries, the impact of the carry - over policy on the CEA price was mainly emotional. In the short term, the market will oscillate horizontally. - Investment advice: The CEA price will oscillate in the short term [60]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the northwest market fluctuated slightly on December 16. Some enterprises' prices decreased. The production of soda ash enterprises was stable, and the inventory did not change much. Downstream demand was average, and the market was in an oversupply situation. - Investment advice: In the capacity expansion cycle, maintain a bearish view on soda ash in the medium term. Short far - month contracts on rallies [62]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Hubei market on December 16 was flat. The glass disk oscillated slightly. The production and sales of original sheet manufacturers in many places were weak, and the inventory pressure was high. The glass market was still in an oversupply situation. - Investment advice: Although there have been many cold repairs of float glass production lines since November, the glass market is still oversupplied. In the medium term, short on rallies [63]. 3.2.18 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - MSC proposed an acquisition offer to ZIM, and Hapag - Lloyd is also a competitor. The market is uncertain about the January shipping capacity supply and price increase. If the MSK's new cabin opening quotation does not exceed market expectations, consider short - selling opportunities on rallies. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the MSK's new cabin opening quotation. If it does not significantly exceed market expectations, consider short - selling opportunities on rallies [65].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Galaxy Futures Container Shipping Index (European Line) Daily Report [1][3] - Report Date: December 16, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Jia Ruilin [2] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - The SCFIS released yesterday was lower than market expectations, causing a slight downward adjustment in EC2512. The market continues to speculate on the January freight rate trend and peak, with the EC market maintaining a volatile trend. Attention is focused on the January first - week quotes from MSK [5]. - The spot freight rate situation has improved recently, and shipping companies have started to announce price increases for January. There are still price - increase expectations for the first week of January. The demand is expected to gradually improve from December to January, while the supply shows different trends in January and February 2026. The short - term market will remain highly volatile, and the key to future price expectations lies in the January price adjustment rhythm. Geopolitically, the second phase of the Israel - Palestine peace talks has begun, and the statements of shipping companies and the post - Spring Festival resumption of shipping schedules need to be observed [6]. Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Market Analysis - On December 16, 2025, EC2602 closed at 1686.8 points, down 3.39% from the previous day. On December 12, the SCFI European Line was reported at $1538/TEU, up 9.8% month - on - month. The latest delivery settlement price of the EC2512 contract on Monday was 1510.56 points, up 0.1% month - on - month, lower than market expectations, leading to a downward adjustment in the EC2512 contract [5]. - In terms of spot freight rates, shipping companies have announced price increases for January. The demand from December to January is expected to improve, and the supply shows different trends in January and February 2026. The January capacity has increased slightly by 3% compared to the previous week's schedule, mainly due to the addition of 4 ships and 2 suspended ships. The February capacity has decreased by 3.7% compared to the previous week, mainly due to the PA Alliance adding 3 suspended ships and 2 large ships of about 24,000 TEU [6]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: For the EC2602 contract, some long positions can be considered for partial profit - taking and partial holding. Attention should be paid to the subsequent price announcements by shipping companies and the improvement rhythm of cargo volume [7]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [8]. Group 5: Industry News - ONE announced a new east - west route network arrangement, which will be officially implemented in April 2026, still maintaining the route via the Cape of Good Hope, and FE3 will no longer call at Shanghai [10]. - According to foreign media reports, MSC has made an acquisition offer to ZIM [11]. - US media reported that the White House privately rebuked Netanyahu for violating the cease - fire agreement [12]. - The Indonesian Finance Minister plans to impose a tariff on coal exports starting from January 1, 2026 [13]. Group 6: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the SCFIS European Line Index and SCFIS US West Line Index, the SCFI Composite Index, and container freight rates for various routes [15][17][22][23]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short-term, the price is expected to continue oscillating, with increased volatility [11][12] - US Dollar Index: The dollar is expected to remain range-bound in the short term [15][16] - US Stock Index Futures: The market is expected to experience greater short-term volatility but should be treated with a generally bullish outlook [18][19] - Stock Index Futures: It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions across various stock indices [20][22] - Power Coal: The overall coal price is expected to remain high and oscillate, with a seasonal decline from December to January [23] - Iron Ore: By the end of the year, molten iron output is expected to be around 2.31 million tons, and port inventories are expected to increase by approximately 10 million tons. The downward trend may not be smooth [24] - Coking Coal/Coke: In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate as downstream restocking slows, and the spot market remains weak [25][26] - Live Pigs: Near-term contracts are recommended for shorting on rebounds, while long-term contracts can be considered for long positions on dips [27] - Rebar/Hot-Rolled Coils: Steel prices are expected to oscillate slightly higher in the short term but should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [28][29] - Corn Starch: It is recommended to operate around the current processing fee in North China (310 yuan/ton) [30][31] - Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil: Palm oil lacks a continuous upward driver. As it enters the production reduction season, its downside support is expected to gradually strengthen [33][34] - Corn: It is not recommended to short the 01 contract. Consider shorting the 03 contract on rallies with a light position. Pay attention to the 3 - 7 and 3 - 9 reverse spreads [34][35] - Polysilicon: Spot prices are expected to remain flat month-on-month. Short-term volatility is expected to increase, so investors are advised to operate with caution [37][38] - Industrial Silicon: The short-term price is expected to oscillate between 8,800 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to trading opportunities within this range [39][40] - Lead: Consider long positions on dips for the medium term. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [41][42] - Zinc: Observe opportunities to buy on dips. Hold long positions in the calendar spread. Wait and see for cross - market arbitrage [43][44] - Copper: The price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to buy on dips. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [46][47] - Nickel: Lightly consider long positions on dips. Mid - term evaluation of resource contraction in Indonesia is still needed [48][49] - Lithium Carbonate: In the short term, consider shorting on rallies. In the medium term, consider long positions after the risk of the off - season decline is released [50][51] - Tin: The price is expected to remain high and oscillate in the short term. Consider buying on dips but avoid chasing high prices [52][53] - Crude Oil: The price is expected to remain range - bound in the short term [56][57] - Carbon Emissions: The CEA price is expected to oscillate in the short term [58][59] - Methanol: It is not recommended to short. For now, it is advisable to wait and see for single - sided trading and consider positive calendar spreads [60][63] - Container Freight Rates: The short - term market is expected to oscillate. Consider lightly going long on the 02 contract [64][65] Core Views - Trump plans to announce the nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair in early 2026, strongly hinting at Kevin Hassett. This has affected market expectations for future monetary policy and asset prices [3][11][15] - Geopolitical events such as Trump's potential military action against drug - trafficking groups in Venezuela and the ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict have influenced market risk appetite and the performance of various assets [2][14][15] - In the commodity market, supply and demand dynamics, production, and inventory levels are the main factors affecting prices. For example, the supply of some metals and energy products has changed, and the demand for agricultural products has also shown different trends [4][5][23] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump will announce the Fed Chair nominee in early 2026. Gold prices have fallen from their highs and are consolidating. The expected loose monetary policy supports gold, and the Russia - Ukraine negotiations add market uncertainty [11] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump may expand the entry ban to about 30 countries and is likely to launch a ground attack on drug - trafficking groups in Venezuela. The US dollar index is expected to remain range - bound [13][14][15] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump's indication of the Fed Chair nominee has increased market expectations for loose liquidity, boosting the technology sector and the overall index, but most sectors still declined [17][18] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The OECD predicts global economic growth rates of 3.2% and 2.9% for this year and next year. A - shares are adjusting with reduced trading volume in anticipation of policy changes [20][21] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Power Coal) - Indonesian low - calorie power coal prices are weak. After the end of restocking, coal prices are expected to remain high and oscillate, with a seasonal decline from December to January [23] 2.2 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project has been successfully sent. Iron ore prices are oscillating, with weakening fundamentals but a not - so - smooth downward trend [24] 2.3 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Coking coal prices in the Changzhi market are weak. After the first round of coke price cuts, the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [25][26] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - The market shows a pattern of "stable futures, weak spot." Near - term contracts are under pressure, while long - term contracts can be considered for long positions on dips [26][27] 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coils) - November's heavy - truck sales increased nearly 50% year - on - year. Steel prices are oscillating slightly higher, but the high inventory of hot - rolled coils limits the upside [28][29] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch prices are relatively stable. The price difference between cassava starch and corn starch has widened, and the supply pressure of corn starch is expected to remain low [30] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026. The supply pressure of oils has slightly eased, and palm oil lacks a continuous upward driver [32][33][34] 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn spot prices are rising. The 01 contract is not recommended for shorting, while the 03 contract can be considered for shorting on rallies [34][35] 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - A new type of high - efficiency TOPCon battery has been launched. The polysilicon market is facing supply - demand contradictions, and prices are expected to remain flat with increased short - term volatility [36][37][38] 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of 97 - grade silicon has increased, and orders are stable. The industrial silicon market is difficult to destock, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [39][40] 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead market is stable, and the domestic lead market is oscillating. The supply may tighten, and the demand is expected to be strong. It is recommended to buy on dips [41][42] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc market is oscillating widely. The domestic zinc market has a reduced supply and weak demand. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold long positions in the calendar spread [43][44] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - A new copper smelter is expected to be put into operation, and the copper powder industry is in a boom cycle. Copper prices are affected by macro - expectations and are expected to oscillate [45][46][47] 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Nickel inventories have increased. The supply - demand surplus has been slightly repaired, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips [48][49] 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Kodal has shipped the first batch of lithium spodumene concentrate to China. The supply may increase after the resumption of production, and the demand in the off - season is weakening [50][51] 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - Storage chip prices are rising. Tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate, and it is recommended to buy on dips [52][53] 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - US API crude oil inventories have increased. Oil prices are affected by the Russia - Ukraine situation and supply concerns and are expected to remain range - bound [54][56][57] 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is oscillating. The impact of the quota policy may be more emotional than substantial [58][59] 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The discount on Iranian imported methanol has decreased. The short - term futures price is difficult to fall, and positive calendar spreads can be considered [60][61][63] 2.20 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The port throughput has increased. The container freight rate market is expected to oscillate, and the 02 contract can be considered for long positions [64][65]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump has determined the next Fed Chair nominee, likely Kevin Hassett, which is expected to increase market risk appetite and weaken the US dollar [2][13]. - After a sharp decline, the odds of the bond market have improved, but there is a risk of further adjustment as policy expectations rise [3][23]. - Due to floods in palm oil - producing areas, the supply pressure is expected to ease, and palm oil prices may rebound [4][25]. - CSPT's decision to cut copper production in 2026 and other factors are expected to drive copper prices to continue to rise [4][45]. - OPEC+ has decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026, and short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend [5][67]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - A data center cooling system problem in Chicago led to a trading halt at CME, causing disruptions in multiple markets. Gold rose about 1.5% and silver soared 5% on Friday, driven by expectations of Fed rate cuts. The Shanghai and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventories are falling, and the CME trading halt has reduced market liquidity. It is recommended to reduce positions [10]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Japanese Finance Minister said the rapid yen depreciation is not driven by fundamentals. Trump has determined the next Fed Chair nominee, and it is expected that Hassett will be elected, leading to increased market risk appetite and a weaker US dollar [11][13]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Ukraine's new negotiation representative went to the US to discuss ending the war. The CME system failure caused trading interruptions. The US rate - cut expectations are rising, and the market risk appetite has improved. The US stock index is expected to continue to repair and show a strong - biased volatile trend [15][16]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, slightly up from the previous value. The National Development and Reform Commission held a private enterprise symposium. The stock market trading volume has shrunk, and there may be no trend - based market in the short term. It is recommended to evenly allocate long positions in stock indices [18][19]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - China's November official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, in line with expectations. The central bank conducted a 3013 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 737 billion yuan on the day. The bond market has a risk of further adjustment as policy expectations rise. It is recommended to short long - term bond varieties on rebounds [21][23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Continuous heavy rain in Indonesia's Sumatra has caused floods and landslides. The supply pressure of palm oil is expected to ease, and prices may rebound. It is recommended to consider short - term long positions [25]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - As of the end of November, about 30 sugar mills in Guangxi and Yunnan have started production. The sugar production in Guangxi in November is expected to be 100,000 tons, far lower than last year. The Zhengzhou sugar 1 - month contract is expected to oscillate, and the main funds will gradually shift to the 5 - month contract [26][31]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In October, China's cotton product exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The EU's clothing imports from China increased in Q3. The US cotton export signing and shipment increased in the week ending October 16. The Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term and cautiously optimistic in the long term [32][35]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Malaysia plans to add 48.4 million tons of steel production capacity from 2030 - 2035. China's November automobile dealer inventory warning index was 55.6%, up year - on - year and month - on - month. Steel prices are expected to oscillate with a slight rebound, and it is recommended to take an oscillatory approach [36][38]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Oil mills maintained a high operating rate. Argentina's soybean planting was 39% complete as of November 27. The US sold 312,000 tons of soybeans to China. International markets should focus on China's soybean purchases and South American weather, and domestic soybean meal is expected to oscillate [39][41]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The price difference between corn starch and tapioca starch has widened. Corn starch is expected to be strong in the short term, and it is recommended to operate in the price - difference range in the medium - short term and expect it to strengthen in the long term [42][43]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of November 27, the average grain - selling progress in Northeast China was 26%, and in North China was 25%, both faster than last year. Corn futures contracts are expected to have different trends, and it is not recommended to short against the trend in the short term [43][44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - CSPT agreed to reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026. Chile's October copper production decreased by 7% year - on - year. Copper prices are expected to rise, and it is recommended to buy on dips [45][48]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Hainan's new - energy power price was cleared at the upper limit. Polysilicon prices are under pressure, and it is recommended that investors operate with caution due to high volatility [49][51]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The operating rates of silicon enterprises in Sichuan and Yunnan are declining. The market is expected to oscillate between 8800 - 9500 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to focus on range - bound operations [52][54]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - On November 27, LME lead had a large - scale backwardation. The old - standard electric bicycle CCC certificates will be cancelled from December 1. The lead market is short of supply and strong in demand, and it is recommended to buy on dips [55][56]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On November 27, LME zinc had a large - scale contango. Antamina's zinc ore tender price was below $30/dry ton. Zinc prices are likely to rise, and it is recommended to observe buying opportunities on the right side and hold long - spread positions [57][58]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Frontier Lithium released its mid - term report. The lithium carbonate market may face short - term callback pressure, and it is recommended to short on highs in the short term and buy on lows in the medium term [59][62]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Indonesia simplified the RKAB approval process. The nickel market is in surplus, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate at the current level [63][64]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On November 28, the EUA main contract closed at €83.26/ton. EU carbon prices are supported by auction suspension and reduced supply in 2026 but may be suppressed by warm weather [65]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 2026. US crude oil production reached a record high in September. Short - term oil prices will maintain a volatile trend, and it is recommended to pay attention to the Russia - Ukraine negotiation progress [67][70]. 3.2.17 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The UK plans to cancel the small - package tariff exemption in 2029. The SCFI index rose. The container freight market is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to consider light - position long positions in the 02 contract [71][72].