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集运指数(欧线)期货周报-20251128
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-11-28 10:47
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - This week, the futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined collectively. The main contract EC2602 fell 6.67%, and the far - month contracts fell between 7 - 11%. The poor implementation of the freight rate increase plan led to a significant decline in the near - month futures prices. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index rebounded significantly, up 20.7% week - on - week. The recovery foundation of terminal transportation demand is not solid. Spot freight rates decreased, and the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine remained stalemated. The eurozone economy continued to improve. The shipping capacity remained loose, and the traditional peak - season boost effect might be weaker than expected. The futures prices are expected to fluctuate more violently [6][42]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - Futures: The main contract price of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures declined rapidly this week. Contracts such as EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 all had different degrees of decline, with the decline ranging from 6.55% to 11.03%. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2512 contract remained high, and market trading warmed up [9][13][15]. - Spot: The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1639.37, up 271.7 points from last week, a 20.7% week - on - week increase [6][42]. 2. News Review and Analysis - China expressed strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to Japan's prime minister's wrong remarks on Taiwan. This news was considered neutral to bearish [18]. - Trump's team made progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and a peace plan was being negotiated. This news was considered neutral to bullish [18]. - The European Central Bank's meeting minutes strengthened the market's expectation that the current interest - rate cut cycle had ended, which was considered neutral to bullish [18]. - Some Fed officials signaled interest - rate cuts, while others thought it was necessary to hold the rates steady in December. This news was considered neutral [18]. 3. Chart Analysis - The basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures contracts shrank this week [25]. - The export container freight rate index declined collectively this week [29]. - Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, and the European Line capacity recovered as the peak season approached. The BDI and BPI declined due to geopolitical factors [32]. - The charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated at a high level this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar narrowed [36]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined this week. The implementation of the freight rate increase plan was poor, and the recovery of terminal transportation demand was not solid. Spot freight rates decreased, and the geopolitical situation was stalemated while the eurozone economy continued to improve [42]. - The shipping capacity remained loose, and the boost effect of the traditional peak season might be weaker than expected. The futures prices are expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [7][43].