瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.24」 集运指数（欧线）期货周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 添加客服 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号： Z0020723 联系电话：0595-86778969 业务咨询 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 一、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 行情回顾 本周集运指数（欧线）期货价格集体上涨，主力合约EC2512收涨10.42%，远月合约收涨4-10%不等。最新SCFIS欧 线结算运价指数为1031.80，较上周回升108.58点，环比上行10.5%，现货指标转降为升，提振期价运行。主流船司相 继发布11月涨价函，且马士基10月中下旬挺价基本成功，提高了市场对于11月涨价成功的信心。鹿特丹港集装箱装卸 业务全面停滞，超60艘船舶在海上停泊等待，区域供应链不确定性加剧；近期，特朗普改口承认对华高额关税"不可 持续"，从145%峰值转向希望通过协商达成"公平协议"，10月17日，特朗普在福克斯商业频道采访中坦言，对中国 商品征收的高额关税不会长期存在，并透露将在两周后在韩国与中国最高领导人会面，持续释放的缓和信号 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The freight rates are still suppressed by fundamentals in the short term. With demand not significantly improving, over - capacity remains a huge pressure on the supply side, limiting the recovery space of shipping prosperity. - Whether the price increase announced by leading shipping companies in December can be implemented depends on the cargo volume in the fourth quarter. Although the economic data of the eurozone has improved, the overall situation is not optimistic. - The uncertainty of tariffs is too high. Although it has improved in the short term, the market is generally in a wait - and - see mode before the holiday. Overall, freight and industry profitability are expected to be under pressure, and the traditional peak season this year may show the characteristic of "not a real peak season", with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly. [7][38] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review - This week, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) rose collectively. The main contract EC2510 closed up 6.22%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 9%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1254.92, down 185.32 points from last week, a 12.9% month - on - month decline. - The trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract were generally weak this week, and the market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode. [6][10][15] 3.2. News Review and Analysis | News | Impact | | --- | --- | | The US issued a document officially finalizing a tariff agreement with the EU, confirming a 15% tariff on EU cars and auto parts since August 1st. Since September 1st, EU pharmaceuticals, aircraft and their parts, generic drugs and their raw materials, as well as some metals and ores have been included in the tariff exemption list. | Bullish | | Premier Li Qiang met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in New York, emphasizing the importance of trade and investment market openness and avoiding politicizing and securitizing economic and trade issues. | Neutral | | The Ministry of Commerce responded to China - US soy trade and Boeing aircraft purchase negotiations, stating that the US should cancel unreasonable tariffs and that the biggest obstacle to normal China - US economic and trade cooperation is US unilateral restrictions. | Neutral | | The OECD released a mid - term outlook report, raising the forecast of global economic growth in 2025 to 3.2% (up 0.3 percentage points from the June forecast) and keeping the 2026 forecast at 2.9%. The economic growth forecasts of the US, eurozone, Japan, and the UK for this year were slightly raised. | Slightly Bullish | [18] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - This week, the basis and spread of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts converged. - The export container freight rate index declined this week. - Container ship capacity continued to grow. The BDI and BPI rebounded this week due to geopolitical factors. - The charter price of Panamax ships fluctuated this week, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar mainly oscillated. [25][27][30][32] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core view, the freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to factors such as the actual follow - up increase of shipping companies' opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade war - related information. [7][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The freight rates of the container shipping index (European line) futures are expected to be under pressure in the short - term. With the demand not significantly improving, over - capacity remains a major challenge for the supply side, limiting the recovery of the shipping industry's prosperity. The price increase announced by leading shipping companies in December depends on the fourth - quarter cargo volume. The eurozone's economic data shows some improvement but is generally not optimistic. The high uncertainty of tariffs and the market's wait - and - see attitude may lead to a "weak peak season" this year, and the freight rates are likely to fluctuate weakly [7][41] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Market Review - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) declined across the board this week. The main contract EC2510 dropped 12.22%, and the far - month contracts fell between 1% and 5%. The latest SCFIS European line settlement freight rate index was 1566.46, down 207.14 points from last week, a 11.7% week - on - week decrease. The volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract both increased this week [6][10][15] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - The market has fully factored in the scenario of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates three times by the end of the year after the release of US economic data. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the second consecutive time, suggesting that the interest - rate cut cycle is near its end. Mexico's plan to raise import tariffs, Trump's criticism of the Fed, and the call from the US Treasury Secretary for a policy re - evaluation are all events with different impacts on the market [19] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts converged this week. The export container freight rate index declined. Container ship capacity decreased in the short - term. The BDI and BPI rebounded due to geopolitical factors. The charter price of Panamax ships recovered rapidly, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar mainly fluctuated [25][27][31] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The freight rates are still suppressed by the fundamentals in the short - term. The over - capacity problem restricts the industry's recovery. The implementation of the price increase announced by shipping companies in December depends on the fourth - quarter cargo volume. The market is in a wait - and - see mode due to high tariff uncertainty. It is necessary to continuously monitor factors such as the actual price increase of shipping companies in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade - war - related information [7][41]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, most prices of the container shipping index (European Line) futures declined. The main contract EC2510 closed down 4.66%, and the far - month contracts declined between 3 - 5%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 2180.17, down 55.31 points from last week, a 2.5% month - on - month decrease, and the spot indicator continued to decline [6][46]. - In the context of the lack of significant improvement in demand, over - capacity remains a huge pressure on the supply side in the future, limiting the recovery space of shipping prosperity. Whether the price increase announced by leading shipping companies in December can be implemented depends on the cargo volume in the fourth quarter, but the current economic data of the eurozone is not optimistic overall. With high tariff uncertainty, the market is generally waiting and watching. Freight and industry profitability are expected to be under pressure, and the traditional peak season this year may show the characteristic of "not prosperous in the peak season", with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly [7][47]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The prices of the main contract of the container shipping index (European Line) futures declined this week. Specifically, EC2508 rose 2.20%, EC2510 fell 4.66%, EC2512 fell 5.04%, EC2602 fell 4.22%, EC2604 fell 5.25%, and EC2606 fell 3.81%. The SCFIS index fell 2.5% [9]. - The trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract declined collectively [18]. 2. News Review and Analysis - The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate, which is bearish for the market [21]. - The EU and the US reached a new trade agreement. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, while the EU will cancel tariffs on US industrial products and purchase US energy and AI chips, which is bullish for the market [21]. - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most policymakers supported not cutting interest rates in July. There were differences among Fed officials regarding inflation, employment, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, which is neutral for the market [21]. - The central bank proposed to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, which is neutral for the market [21]. 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the container shipping index (European Line) futures contracts converged this week [28]. - The export container freight rate index declined this week [32]. - Container shipping capacity declined in the short term. The BDI and BPI rebounded due to geopolitical factors [36]. - The charter price of Panamax ships rebounded rapidly this week. The spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated mainly [40]. 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The container shipping index (European Line) futures prices mostly declined this week. Spot indicators continued to decline. Leading shipping companies started a "price war", and the market expected to turn cold. Trump's plan to impose additional tariffs increased uncertainty in global trade. The Fed's attitude towards interest rates and the eurozone's economic situation also had an impact on the market [46]. - Due to over - capacity and high tariff uncertainty, freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to factors such as the actual follow - up increase of shipping companies' cabin opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade war - related information [47].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the futures price of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) fluctuated. The main contract EC2510 rose 0.27%, while other contracts had gains ranging from -1% to 4%. The latest SCFIS Europe Line settlement freight rate index was 2,297.86, down 18.7 points from last week, a 0.8% decrease [6][44]. - Trump's tariff measures have intensified global trade uncertainties and raised market expectations of a resurgence in trade conflicts. The US consumer sector shows resilience, but there is an upward risk of inflation in the future. The Q2 2025 GDP growth of the Eurozone slightly exceeded market expectations, and the ECB has more flexibility in its interest - rate policy [6][44]. - From July to August, the traditional peak season for European routes has led to an increase in delivery volume. The recovery of cargo volume has offset some market concerns, and the complexity of the geopolitical situation has postponed the resumption of Red Sea voyages, pushing up the freight rates on European routes. However, freight and industry profitability may be under pressure, and the peak season may be "not so peaky" with freight rates expected to fluctuate weakly [7][45]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures contracts: EC2508 fell 2.08%, EC2510 rose 0.27%, EC2512 rose 4.27%, EC2602 rose 3.00%, EC2604 rose 1.74%, and EC2606 rose 1.42%. The SCFIS index fell 0.8% [10]. - The price of the main contract of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) rose slightly this week, and the trading volume and open interest of the EC2510 contract both increased [13][18] 2. News Review and Analysis - In July, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 3.91 trillion yuan, a 6.7% year - on - year increase. Exports were 2.31 trillion yuan, up 8%, and imports were 1.6 trillion yuan, up 4.8%. In the first seven months, the total import and export value was 25.7 trillion yuan, a 3.5% year - on - year increase [21]. - Trump criticized Powell for late interest - rate cuts, may soon announce a new Fed chairman, and plans to raise tariffs on India, chips, and semiconductors. The US - Japan trade agreement has ongoing disputes, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff [21] 3. Chart Analysis - This week, the basis and spread of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) futures contracts converged, and the export container freight rate index declined [27][29]. - Container shipping capacity decreased in the short term. The BDI and BPI rebounded due to geopolitical factors. The average charter price of Panamax ships rebounded rapidly, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated [34][38] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The futures price of the Container Shipping Index (Europe Line) fluctuated this week. Trump's tariff policies have increased trade uncertainties. The US consumer sector shows resilience, but inflation may rise. The Eurozone's economic data is stable, and the ECB has more flexibility in interest - rate policies [44]. - The peak season for European routes from July to August has led to an increase in delivery volume, but freight and industry profitability may be under pressure, and freight rates are expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to factors such as the actual follow - up increase in shipping companies' cabin opening prices in December, the frequency of Houthi attacks, and trade - war - related information [7][45]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping index (European line) futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 1598.0 points, with a current report of 1575.3 points, reflecting a rise of 9.78% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - One德期货 maintains a short-term view of a fluctuating shipping market, suggesting a cautious approach [2] - 南华期货 indicates a higher likelihood of a fluctuating or upward trend in shipping prices, supported by recent increases in the SCFIS European line index, which reported 2421.94 points, up 7.3% [2][3] - The increase in exports to the EU, amounting to 2.82 trillion yuan with a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, is expected to continue, although new product demand may be suppressed due to high inventory levels [2] Group 2: Price Trends and Expectations - The main contract has shifted to the EC2510 contract, with Maersk's European line spot quotes showing a slight upward trend, influenced by market sentiment amid geopolitical developments [3] - Despite the positive sentiment, other shipping companies have begun to lower their mid-to-late July quotes, indicating that significant price increases may be limited unless unexpected factors arise [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a significant increase in the shipping index (European route) futures, with the main contract reaching 1353.4 points, reflecting a rise of 7.07% [1] - The latest SCFIS European route settlement price index is reported at 1379.07, down by 50.32 points from the previous week, representing a decrease of 3.5% [2] - China's export to ASEAN in April saw a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, accelerating by 9.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, while exports to the EU grew by over 8% [2] Group 2 - According to Nanhua Futures, the macro sentiment's impact on futures prices is currently limited, with ongoing oversupply leading to a continued downward trend in European route shipping rates [3] - The latest SCFI European route freight index is reported at $1161 per TEU, reflecting a decrease of 3.25% [3] - Guangzhou Futures highlights the ongoing US-China trade talks in Geneva, with market expectations for potential tariff easing, although there remains pressure from ample shipping capacity [3]