2026.03. 04 中东地缘冲突持续发酵，霍尔木兹海峡等关键航道风险升温。在此背景下，集运指数（欧线）期货合 约连续两日全线涨停，A股海运板块涨幅居前。 3月3日，集运指数（欧线）期货主力合约连续两个交易日涨停，涨幅为18%，收报1644.8点。A股 市场，海运板块多只个股涨势不俗，招商轮船（601872.SH）、锦江航运（601083.SH）、中远海 能（600026.SH）、宁波远洋（601022.SH）、招商南油（601975.SH）等涨停。 多位期货分析人士认为，此轮大涨主要受地缘风险情绪驱动，叠加船公司提价预期与绕行成本抬升影 响，但当前欧线处于传统淡季，船公司提价或较难落地。后续需持续关注冲突演变路径以及持续时 间，短期市场仍将处于高波动博弈状态。 中东冲突下，航运产业链各环节正处于高度不确定和策略分化的状态。据受访人士观察，船公司行动 与策略出现显著分歧，贸易商普遍面临履约困难与成本压力上升的双重挑战，企业采购与发货节奏被 打乱。 面对极端市场波动与地缘冲突交织的多重不确定性，航运全产业链各参与主体的应对之策也成为市场 关注的焦点。 连续涨停下的"强预期、弱现实" 本文字数：3834，阅读时 ...

Group 1 - The outbreak of conflict in Israel has made a significant portion of global oil trade, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, increasingly dangerous, leading to a dramatic rise in charter rates for large oil tankers [1] - The daily rental rate for a Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) on the route from Gulf countries to China surged from $19,998 on June 11 to $47,609 on June 18, marking an increase of 138% [1] - The rental rate for Large Range 2 (LR2) tankers also increased from $21,097 to $51,879 during the same period, significantly outpacing the 12% rise in the global crude tanker freight index [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment is influenced by concerns over Iran's ability to maintain crude oil exports amid the conflict, although there are currently no signs that Israeli attacks have impacted Iran's oil export capacity [2] - Shipping companies are becoming more cautious in the region due to signal interference issues affecting navigation, which could have substantial implications for global trade if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked [2] - A recent incident involving the Front Eagle tanker colliding with a "shadow fleet" vessel after leaving the Strait of Hormuz underscores the heightened navigation risks in the area [2]