（文章来源：第一财经） 上海国际能源交易中心：经研究决定，自2025年10月15日（星期三）交易起，非期货公司会员、境外特 殊非经纪参与者、客户在集运指数（欧线）期货合约日内开仓交易的最大数量为200手。实际控制关系 账户组日内开仓交易的最大数量按照单个客户执行。套期保值交易和做市交易的开仓数量不受此限制。 ...

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数 | | | | （欧线） 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2510 | 1,119.9 | 9.3 | 0.84% | 15,562.0 | 10.14% | 21,030.0 | -15.14% | | EC2512 | 1,688.0 | -43.9 | -2.53% | 41,507.0 | 168.58% | 24,222.0 | 16.61% | | EC2602 | 1,406.0 | -236.8 | -14.41% | 12,789.0 | 213.53% | 8,743.0 | 2.45% | | ...

9月24日，上海国际能源交易中心发布通知，根据《上海国际能源交易中心关于2025年休市安排的公 告》（上海国际能源交易中心公告〔2024〕135号），现对国庆节、中秋节期间有关工作安排如下： 一、2025年9月30日（星期二）晚上不进行夜盘交易。 2025年10月1日（星期三）至2025年10月8日（星期三）休市。 2025年10月9日（星期四）08:55-09:00所有期货、期权合约进行集合竞价，当晚恢复夜盘交易。 二、自2025年9月29日（星期一）收盘结算时起，交易保证金比例和涨跌停板幅度调整如下： 国际铜期货合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为9%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为10%，一般持仓交易保证 金比例调整为11%； 原油、低硫燃料油期货合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为12%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为13%，一般持 仓交易保证金比例调整为14%； 20号胶期货合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为11%，套保持仓交易保证金比例调整为12%，一般持仓交易保证 金比例调整为13%； 集运指数（欧线）期货合约的涨跌停板幅度调整为20%，交易保证金比例调整为22%。 如遇《上海国际能源交易中心风险控制管理细则》第十六条规定情况，则在 ...

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 09 月 23 日 | 研究员：贾瑞林 | 第一部分 | 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | | --- | --- | --- | | 期货从业证号： | | | | F3084078 | | | | 投资咨询证号： | | | | Z0018656 | | | | 联系方式： | | | | :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | | | 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn 1 / 11 航运日报 现货运价方面，部分船司开始调涨 10 月运价，后续现货下跌速率有望放缓。具体 来看，MSK 近期放出 WK40 和 WK41 周上海-鹿特丹开舱价 1400 美金/FEU，环比上周 下调 150 美金。HPL10 月上半月线上报价 1435，下半月报价 2035;CMA9 月下旬至 10 月上半月线上 1620 附近，10 月下半月放出部分价格 2500 部分调回 1620；OOCL9 月下 旬至 10 月上半月线下降至 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot container shipping freight rate remains weak, but concerns about the passage of China - Europe freight trains and the expectation of post - holiday price increases still exist, causing the EC futures market to strengthen slightly. The decline rate of spot freight rates is expected to slow down after the holiday. For dry bulk shipping, the market showed a slight increase last week with different trends among ship types. The oil tanker market is generally improving, with the crude oil and refined oil markets remaining stable [5][19][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On September 22, 2025, the EC2512 closed at 1653.9 points, up 1.71% from the previous day. The SCFI European Line on September 19 was $1052/TEU, down 8.84% month - on - month. The latest SCFIS European Line released after the market on the 22nd was 1254.92 points, down 12.87% month - on - month [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: Shipping companies continue to lower spot prices. The freight rate center in late September dropped to around $1300 - 1600/FEU. The demand side has seen a decline in peak - season cargo volume, and the loading rate of major shipping companies has decreased. The supply side shows that the average weekly capacity in September, October, and November 2025 is 281,800/249,700/285,900 TEU respectively. The blank - sailing rate in October is about 15.56%. Attention should be paid to the subsequent tariff policy and the reopening of the Polish border [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to stop losses at low prices for short positions in EC2510 recently, and adopt a long - at - low strategy for the EC2512 contract. For arbitrage, conduct rolling operations at low prices for the 10 - 12 reverse spread and enter the market at low prices for the 2 - 4 positive spread [7][8]. Industry News - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.9%. In December, the probability of unchanged rates is 1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 18.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 80.5% [9]. - India's Minister of Commerce and Industry will visit the US to reach a "mutually beneficial" trade agreement, indicating a relaxation of tensions between the two countries [9]. - Shipping companies warn that the IMO's net - zero emission rules may bring huge costs to the industry, with an annual cost of about $20 - 30 billion by 2030 and over $300 billion by 2035 if the target is missed by 10% [10]. - Italian unions plan strikes and protests on September 19 and 22, which will disrupt the country's transportation and logistics [11]. - Israel has deployed a third division to the Gaza Strip, and Australia, Canada, and the UK have recognized the State of Palestine [12]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Index**: The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell slightly on Friday but rose 3.6% week - on - week. The Capesize index rose to a new high since July 29, while the Panamax index dropped to a new low since September 5 [16]. - **Spot Freight Rate**: On September 19, the freight rate for the Brazil - Qingdao iron ore route was $24.77/ton, up 1.02% month - on - month, and the West Australia - Qingdao route was $10.94/ton, down 0.14% month - on - month. Weekly data shows that the freight rates of some coal and bauxite routes have increased [17]. - **Shipping Data**: From September 15 - 21, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 248,300 tons. Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn exports in September are expected to increase [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Capesize market has good transportation demand and rising freight rates, while the Panamax market has reduced cargo volume and falling freight rates. The large - ship market may see a decline in cargo volume from mid - October, and the medium - ship market is under pressure due to weak demand [19][20]. Industry News - The Simandou iron ore project has started the first - batch mining operations [21]. - Brazil is expected to increase its soybean planting area and production in the 2025/26 season [21]. - India and the US are seeking a "mutually beneficial" trade agreement [21]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Rate**: On September 19, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1143, down 0.35% month - on - month and up 30.48% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 618, down 0.48% month - on - month and up 3.34% year - on - year. The oil tanker market is generally stable, with the Suez - type ships popular in the crude oil market and regional differences in the refined oil market [23]. Industry News - Trump pressures European countries to stop buying Russian oil [24]. - Although there are concerns about oversupply and weak demand, geopolitical risks support international oil prices. The domestic refined oil price adjustment may be stranded [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Container Shipping**: Spot freight rates are in a downward channel, and the decline is expected to slow down in mid - to late October. The overall freight rate center is expected to move down in the second half of the year due to tariff suppression. The 10 - contract valuation has room to decline, and trading strategies include weak oscillations for single - sided trading and specific arbitrage operations [8][9][11]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index reached a one - and - a - half - month high. Large - vessel market freight rates are expected to be supported in the short term but lack strong upward momentum. Medium - vessel market transportation demand has certain support and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [19][22]. - **Oil Tanker Transportation**: The oil transportation market shows obvious differentiation. The crude oil transportation market continues to rise, while the refined oil market is in a downward trend. Long - term attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection elimination and supply - demand reshaping on freight rates [29]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (European Line) - **Market Data** - **Futures Disk**: On September 17, 2025, EC2510 closed at 1,109.7, down 60.0 or 5.13%. Different contracts showed different price and volume changes [5]. - **Container Freight Rates**: SCFIS European Line was at 1440.24 points, down 8.06% week - on - week and 62.24% year - on - year. Different routes had different freight rate changes [5]. - **Fuel Costs**: WTI crude oil near - month was at $64.17 per barrel, up 1.82% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was at $68.03 per barrel, up 1.51% year - on - year [5]. - **Market Analysis and Strategies** - **Analysis**: Spot freight rates are falling, and the impact of the closure of the Polish border on China - Europe freight trains continues. The freight rate center in the second half of September dropped to around 1400 - 1700 US dollars/FEU. The market is affected by factors such as demand, supply, and tariffs [8][9]. - **Strategies**: Single - sided trading is expected to be weakly oscillating. For the 10 - contract, short positions can be gradually reduced and profited before the National Day. For arbitrage, conduct 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage operations at low levels and enter 2 - 4 positive arbitrage at low levels [11][12]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Market Data** - **Freight Index**: On September 16, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose 0.05% to 2154 points. The Capesize vessel freight index rose 1.1% to 3189 points, while the Panamax vessel freight index fell 1.8% to 1968 points [18][19]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: Different routes of Capesize and Panamax vessels had different freight rate changes on September 16 and as of September 12 [18][20]. - **Shipping Data**: From September 8 - 14, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume increased. Brazilian grain exports in September are expected to increase [21]. - **Market Analysis and Outlook** - **Analysis**: The rise in Capesize vessel freight rates offset the decline of smaller vessels. The large - vessel market is supported by Australian end - of - season cargo releases, but the cargo volume is expected to decrease from mid - October. The medium - vessel market has certain transportation demand support, mainly in a fluctuating trend [22]. Oil Tanker Transportation - **Market Data** - **Freight Index**: On September 16, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was at 1137, up 0.8% week - on - week and 26.76% year - on - year; the Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was at 609, up 0.66% week - on - week and down 4.55% year - on - year [28][29]. - **Average Earnings**: VLCC average earnings were $57,975 per day, up 58.71% week - on - week and 90.00% year - on - year; Suezmax average earnings were $45,871 per day, up 43.38% week - on - week and down 14.04% year - on - year [28]. - **Crude Oil Futures Prices**: WTI crude oil near - month was at $64.17 per barrel, up 1.82% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was at $68.03 per barrel, up 1.51% year - on - year [28]. - **Market Analysis and Outlook** - **Analysis**: The crude oil transportation market continues to rise, while the refined oil market is in a downward trend. The VLCC market is improving due to tight supply and slightly higher - than - expected cargo volume [29]. - **Industry News** - OPEC+ representatives will discuss updating member production capacity estimates in Vienna from September 18 - 19, aiming to determine new production baselines and 2027 production targets [30]. - On September 15, oil prices continued to rise due to supply interruption risks from Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities and Trump's call for NATO to stop buying Russian oil [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping market is in a weak state, with spot prices in a downward channel and the overall freight rate center expected to decline in the second half of the year due to tariff pressure. The dry bulk shipping market shows mixed performance among different ship - types, with large - ship market lacking upward momentum and medium - ship market expected to be range - bound. The oil tanker transportation market remains stable overall, with different performances among different ship - types and potential price increases in some segments [5][6][18][23]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On September 3, 2025, EC2510 closed at 1323 points, down 1.32% from the previous day. The SCFI European Line reported $1481/TEU on August 29, down 11.21% month - on - month, and the latest SCFIS European Line reported 1773.6 points on Monday after the market, down 10.9% month - on - month. The spot market is in a rapid decline, and the loading rate continues to fall [5]. - **Fundamental Factors**: In the second half of the year, export pressure is greater than in the first half due to tariffs. The loading rate of shipping companies in September continues to decline, and the freight rate center further drops. The US imposed reciprocal tariffs on August 1, increasing trade pressure [6]. - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral trading is expected to be weakly volatile. There is an expectation of downward revision of the valuation center in October, but attention should be paid to the situation of empty sailings in October. For arbitrage, conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread at low prices [7][8]. Industry News - Trump will hold an emergency meeting on tariff rulings on Wednesday, and may appeal to the Supreme Court. If the tariff appeal is rejected, tariffs may be withdrawn [10]. - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, lower than the expected 49 [11]. - The EU is considering postponing the schedule for imposing a unified tax on aviation and shipping fuel by 10 years [11]. - There are military actions in the Red Sea area, and the Houthi armed forces launched attacks on Israeli - related ships [12][13]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI) fell to a more than one - week low on September 2, down 1.88% to 1986 points. Freight rates for all ship - types declined. The freight rates of Cape - size and Panamax ships decreased [15]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: On September 2, the freight rate of the Cape - size ship iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was $24.27/ton, down 0.82% month - on - month, and from Western Australia to Qingdao was $10.11/ton, down 1.51% month - on - month [16]. - **Shipping Data**: From August 25 to 31, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3556.8 million tons, an increase of 241.0 million tons month - on - month. The expected soybean export volume from Brazil from August 24 to 30 was 163.07 million tons, a decrease from the previous week [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The activity of the two major markets for Cape - size ships was low, and the freight rates declined slightly. The Panamax ship market performed averagely, with an increase in available capacity and a slight decline in freight rates. The freight rates of large - ships are expected to be range - bound in the near term, and may be supported by the improvement of iron ore shipping volume in late September. The medium - ship market is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with relatively stable demand for South American grain transportation and weak coal demand [18]. Industry News - From August 25 to 31, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1248.7 million tons, an increase of 48.2 million tons month - on - month, but still at a relatively low level [19]. - India's power generation increased by 4% year - on - year in August, and coal - fired power generation increased year - on - year for the first time in the past five months [19]. - The price of Supramax bulk carriers is rising due to market recovery and purchases by Chinese shipowners [19]. - From January to July, European fertilizer imports increased by 12% year - on - year, and Chinese suppliers have become the largest alternative suppliers in the EU [20]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - **Market Performance**: On September 2, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1041, up 0.19% month - on - month and 20.21% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 629, up 0.32% month - on - month and 8.26% year - on - year [23]. - **Market Situation**: The oil tanker transportation market remains stable overall. The crude oil market has declined after the previous rise, and the demand for some routes has slowed down, but the medium - sized oil tanker market performs strongly. The performance of different ship - types in the refined oil market is differentiated, and the freight rates of some ship - types may further increase [23]. Industry News - As of the week ending September 3, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE decreased by 150.3 million barrels to 1450.6 million barrels [24]. - Due to factors such as the European situation and US tariff policies, the domestic refined oil retail price limit is likely to increase on September 9, which will boost the domestic market sentiment. Diesel demand is expected to improve, while gasoline demand support is insufficient [25].

Group 1: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations for Container Shipping - The shipping companies have released the freight rates for the first half of September, and the spot prices in the off - season continue to decline. On August 21, EC2510 closed at 1325 points, down 2.21% from the previous day. The SCFI European line reported on August 15 was $1820/TEU, down 7.2% month - on - month. The second - phase settlement index of EC2508 released after the market on Monday was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% month - on - month, slightly exceeding market expectations due to some ship delays. It is expected that the decline of SCFIS will widen in the future. Under the pressure of tariffs in the second half of the year, the support for off - season freight rates is expected to weaken, and competition among shipping companies is expected to intensify compared with the first half of the year [4]. - In terms of spot freight rates, the current decline in cargo volume and sufficient shipping capacity supply have accelerated the decline of spot freight rates, and the end - of - month center is approaching below 2500. The demand side has seen a decline in peak - season cargo volume, and the impact of tariff policies on the shipping rhythm needs to be noted this year. The supply side shows that the monthly average weekly shipping capacity from Shanghai to Northern Europe in August, September, and October 2025 is 303,100/295,900/272,800 TEU respectively. The overall shipping capacity has slightly decreased compared with the previous week's schedule. The 08 contract's valuation has been slightly revised upwards due to ship delays and skipped containers, and the impact of ship delays and skipped containers on the third - phase index will be reduced [5]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral trading should be weak and volatile; for arbitrage, conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread at low levels [6][7]. Group 2: Industry News for Container Shipping - Eurozone's July CPI annual rate final value is 2%, in line with expectations; the core CPI annual rate final value is 2.4%, in line with expectations; the CPI monthly rate final value is 0%, in line with expectations [9]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues, and he expects another meeting before November [9]. - The Israeli military's plan to attack Gaza City has been approved by the defense minister, and about 60,000 reserve call - up orders have been issued. The Israeli military officials expect to finalize the attack plan in the next few days. The Iranian Defense Minister said that if the enemy continues malicious acts, Iran's response will be destructive and unexpected. The Iranian Foreign Minister said that Iran has not reached the mature stage for "effective" nuclear negotiations with the US [9][10]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Outlook for Dry Bulk Shipping - On August 20, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI) fell for the third consecutive day to 1927 points, down 1.88% from the previous day, the lowest level since August 5. The Capesize ship freight index fell 156 points, or 5.2%, to 2867 points, and the daily average profit of Capesize ships fell $1294 to $23,778. The Panamax ship freight index rose 28 points, or 1.7%, to 1665 points, and the daily average profit of Panamax ships rose $248 to $14,985. The Supramax bulk carrier freight index rose 19 points, or 1.4%, to 1388 points [10]. - On August 20, the freight rate of the Capesize ship iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was $23.48/ton, down 2.19% month - on - month; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was $9.04/ton, down 1.69% month - on - month. As of August 15, the freight rate of the Capesize ship coal route from Hay Point, Australia to Qingdao was $11.90/ton, down 4.80% from the previous week; the freight rate from Hay Point, Australia to Rotterdam was $19.90/ton, down 1.49% from the previous week. The freight rate of the Capesize ship bauxite route from Guinea to Yantai was $25.50/ton, up 2.82% from the previous week [12]. - From August 11 to August 17, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 34.066 million tons, an increase of 3.599 million tons month - on - month. The total shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 27.56 million tons, an increase of 2.257 million tons month - on - month. In August 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume is expected to reach 8.9 million tons, and the corn export volume is expected to reach 8.05 million tons [14]. - Yesterday, there were not many cargoes in the two major markets of Capesize ships, the available shipping capacity in the market increased, the bearish sentiment rose, and the freight rates continued to decline. In the Panamax ship market, there were not many coal and grain cargoes, and the shipowners' quotes were relatively firm, with a slight increase in freight rates. In the large - ship market, it is expected that the cargo volume in mid - to - late September will decline compared with late August, and the short - term freight rates will be under pressure. In the medium - ship market, the short - term grain transportation demand lacks obvious growth. Although the coal demand from power plants provides some support for the medium - ship freight rates, it is expected that the support will gradually weaken after the end of August [15]. Group 4: Industry News for Dry Bulk Shipping - In July 2025, Japan imported 15.73 million tons of coal, a year - on - year increase of 6%, and the coal import value was 294.911 billion yen ($1.995 billion), a year - on - year decrease of 28.5% [16]. - The US Soybean Association strongly urged the Trump administration to reach an agreement to reopen the Chinese market for US soybeans [16]. Group 5: Market Analysis and Outlook for Tanker Shipping - On August 20, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1010, up 1.1% month - on - month and 9.78% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 616, up 0.65% month - on - month and down 5.52% year - on - year. Recently, the crude oil market and the refined oil market have shown different trends. The crude oil market is generally stable and improving, with the VLCC market maintaining stable freight rates due to shipowners' price support and tight shipping capacity supply. In the refined oil market, the BCTI has continued to decline, and the imbalance between supply and demand still exists. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of the concentrated booking of Middle - East routes in September on subsequent freight rates, and in the long term, attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection elimination and supply - demand reshaping on freight rates [19]. Group 6: Industry News for Tanker Shipping - As of the week ending August 20, Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.61 million barrels to 23.035 million barrels, the lowest level in 8 weeks [20]. - India will continue to buy Russian oil despite US pressure, and the foreign ministers of Russia and India will discuss strengthening strategic partnership in Moscow [20].

Group 1: Market Analysis of Container Shipping - The peak of the peak - season freight rate has passed. Mainstream shipping companies have successively lowered their spot quotes for August, causing the EC futures market to fluctuate weakly. On July 29, EC2510 closed at 1460 points, down 2.85% from the previous day's close. The latest SCFIS European Line index released after Monday's trading was 2316.56 points, down 3.5% month - on - month, indicating a decline in spot freight rates [4]. - Spot freight rates show a divergence in quotes among mainstream shipping companies. Most shipping companies except MSC have either maintained or lowered their freight rates for the first half of August. The demand side is affected by tariff policies during the traditional peak season from July to August. The supply side shows that the average weekly capacity in July, August, and September 2025 is 264,200, 289,900, and 296,600 TEU respectively, with a slight decline in July and September compared to the previous week's schedule. The ship schedule in September is still abundant [5]. - Regarding tariffs, Trump extended the tariff exemption period to August 1st. The US has finalized tariffs of about 19 - 20% on Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines, and 15% on the EU and Japan. The Sino - US negotiation has been extended for 90 days, and the cease - fire negotiation in the Israel - Palestine conflict is in progress [5]. Group 2: Trading Strategies for Container Shipping - Unilateral trading: It is expected that the futures market will remain weak. This week, the market is expected to be disturbed by macro - events such as tariff negotiations. For EC2510, some short positions can be closed for profit and some can be rolled over. The overall strategy is to short on rallies [6]. - Arbitrage: Conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [7]. Group 3: Industry News for Container Shipping - The US Secretary of Commerce said that the EU will pay a 15% tariff, with a few small commodities excluded. Trump will consider several agreements this week and then determine the tax rates [8]. - Trump said that the US will announce tariffs on drugs in the near future, and global tariffs will be around 15 - 20% [10]. - Trump expressed disappointment with Putin and is considering giving Russia less than two weeks to reach a cease - fire agreement [11]. - The Canadian Prime Minister claimed that the trade negotiation with the US is in a tense stage [12]. - A Dutch bank analyst said that it is unrealistic for the EU to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products in three years without a significant increase in energy prices [12]. - Netanyahu said that Israel will continue to fight until the hostages are released and Hamas is defeated, and will cooperate with international institutions and the US and European countries to ensure the entry of a large amount of aid supplies into the Gaza Strip [13]. - The Iranian Foreign Minister said that if the aggression occurs again, Iran will respond more resolutely [13]. - Two senior assistants of Netanyahu went to the US on Sunday and will hold talks with White House officials on Iran and Gaza issues this week [13]. Group 4: Market Analysis of Dry Bulk Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell on Monday due to the decline in freight rates of all ship types. The BDI dropped 31 points, or 1.37%, to 2226 points. The Capesize Index fell 55 points or 1.4% to 3774 points, and the Panamax Index dropped 40 points, or 2.2%, to 1798 points, the lowest since July 10th [16]. - On July 28, the freight rate of the Capesize iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was $24.59/ton, down 0.65% month - on - month, and the rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was $10.25/ton, down 0.34% month - on - month. As of July 25, the weekly freight rates of some Capesize coal and bauxite routes increased, while some Panamax coal routes decreased [17]. - From July 21st to July 27th, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 32.009 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 918,000 tons. In the fourth week of July 2025, a total of 10.4472 million tons of soybeans were loaded, with an average daily loading volume of 549,900 tons/day, a 12.41% increase compared to July last year [18]. - The Capesize ship market had few inquiries on the previous day, and the overall market was calm at the beginning of the week, with freight rates falling slightly. The demand for grain transportation in the Panamax ship market weakened, and although there were some coal cargoes released, the market capacity increased, resulting in a slight decline in freight rates [19]. Group 5: Industry News for Dry Bulk Shipping - Typhoon "Bamboo Grass" is expected to move northwest at a speed of 10 - 15 km/h, gradually intensify, and make landfall on the coast from Sanmen, Zhejiang to Qidong, Jiangsu between noon and evening on the 30th [20]. - China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm on July 28th. Trump said that the US is very close to reaching an agreement with China [21]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 142.8173 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0683 million tons. The total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 13.549 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 696,000 tons [21]. Group 6: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple graphs, including those related to container shipping such as SCFIS European and US - West lines, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates of different routes; and those related to dry bulk shipping such as BDI, BPI, BCI, and BSI indices, as well as BDTI and BCTI [22][26][35][38][39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The shipping market continues to debate the peak of the peak season and the rate of freight decline. The EC market as a whole maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the results of the China - US tariff negotiations next week [3]. - For container shipping, the spot freight rate remains stable, and the freight rate is in the process of building a high - level bottom. Attention should be paid to the subsequent ship schedule adjustment and the final tariff negotiation results [3][4]. - For dry bulk shipping, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose to its highest level in over a year, driven by the strong rise of the Capesize ship freight index. The short - term freight rate of large - ship markets is expected to be supported, while the medium - ship market may face weakening upward momentum [10][14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping 3.1.1 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On July 24, EC2510 closed at 1583.9 points, up 3.05% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line reported 2400.50 points, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%, and the spot freight rate remained stable [3]. - **Tariff Situation**: The US and the EU are in tariff negotiations. The EU has passed a 93 - billion - euro counter - tariff measure on US products. Attention should be paid to the actual tariff collection and the progress of China - US tariff negotiations [3]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side**: Adopt the idea of batch - layout short - selling on the EC2510 off - season contract at high points, and conduct rolling operations with good position control [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [6]. 3.1.2 Logic Analysis - **Spot Freight Rate**: Mainstream shipping companies' quotes are differentiated. Some shipping companies with good cargo - booking conditions are still slightly increasing the freight rate at the beginning of August. The current freight rate is building a high - level bottom, and attention should be paid to subsequent transactions [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: July - August is the traditional peak season for the European line, but this year, the impact of tariff policies on the shipping rhythm needs to be considered. The shipping capacity in July and August has slightly decreased [4]. - **Tariff Impact**: Trump has extended the tariff exemption period to August 1, and the proposed additional tariffs on other countries may suppress China's export and re - export trade. Attention should be paid to the shipping rhythm and negotiation results [4]. 3.1.3 Industry News - The EU is preparing to impose a 30% tariff on US goods worth 10 billion euros if no agreement is reached. Trump said he would impose simple tariffs of 15% - 50% on most countries [7]. - The US Treasury Secretary will meet with the Chinese Treasury Secretary in Stockholm next week to discuss whether to extend the deadline for the agreement to avoid a significant tariff increase [7]. - The cease - fire negotiation between Palestine and Israel is in progress, and attention should be paid to the negotiation progress [4]. 3.2 Dry Bulk Shipping 3.2.1 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Freight Index**: On July 23, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose 85 points, or 4.18%, to 2120 points, the highest since July 2024. The Capesize ship freight index rose 278 points, or 9.1%, to 3339 points, reaching a five - week high [10]. - **Spot Freight Rate**: On July 23, the freight rate of the Capesize ship's iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 23.88 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.31%. As of July 18, the freight rate of the Capesize ship's coal route from Hay Point, Australia to Rotterdam was 17.50 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 23.24% [11]. - **Shipping Data** - **Iron Ore**: From July 14 to July 20, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume increased by 122000 tons month - on - month. The shipping volume from Australia to China increased by 13500 tons month - on - month [12]. - **Grain**: In the third week of July 2025, Brazil's cumulative soybean shipment was 7436800 tons. The predicted soybean export volume from July 20 to July 26 was 2.8107 million tons, showing a cooling trend [13]. 3.2.2 Logic Analysis - **Capesize Ship**: The cargo volume in the Capesize ship market increased, the shipping capacity in the Atlantic market was tight, and the shipowners were active in raising prices, leading to a rise in freight rates [14]. - **Panamax Ship**: The transportation demand for grain and coal in the Panamax ship market was low, and the market wait - and - see sentiment increased, resulting in slight fluctuations in freight rates [14]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term freight rate of large - ship markets is expected to be supported, while the medium - ship market may face weakening upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the iron ore shipping demand in mid - early August and the import coal market situation [14]. 3.2.3 Industry News - In June 2025, the world's crude steel production decreased by 5.8% year - on - year to 151.4 million tons, and China's crude steel production decreased by 9.2% year - on - year to 83.2 million tons [15]. - Driven by the increased demand of JSW Steel, India's iron ore imports are expected to increase this year [17].