大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 11 月 20 日 研究员：贾瑞林 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | | | | 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2512 | 1,775.7 | 12.4 | 0.70% | 4,067.0 | 65.86% | 8,060.0 | -15.76% | | EC2602 | 1,631.0 | -9.1 | -0.55% | 32,775.0 | 75.39% | 42,029.0 | 4.44% | | EC2604 | 1,163.0 | 0.3 | 0.03% | 3,097.0 | 31.34% | 16,014.0 | 0.44% | | EC2606 ...

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 11 月 19 日 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 研究员：贾瑞林 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 主流船司相继放出 12 月宣涨函，市场持续博弈未来宣涨落地幅度，EC 盘面维持震 荡走势：从盘面表现来看，11 月 19 日，EC2512 收盘报 1763.3 点，较上一日收盘价- 0.35%。11/14 日 SCFI 欧线报 1417 美金/TEU，环比+7.11%；周一盘后发布最新一期的 SCFIS 欧线报 1357.67 点，环比-9.8%，不及预期，主要受到 MSK 运价下跌带动指数跌 幅较大所致，11 月下半月 SCFIS 欧线指数预计仍处低位，本周需关注后续 12 月报价情 况。 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | | | | 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is pessimistic about the future freight rate height. Afternoon trading was affected by the news that the Houthi armed forces announced a halt to attacks on Red Sea merchant ships, strengthening the expectation of far - month resumption of navigation, causing a plunge in EC futures [6]. - The spot freight rate is basically in line with expectations. Although the resumption of navigation expectation has strengthened, it is still difficult to achieve large - scale resumption of navigation in the short term [6]. - In the second half of November, the upward momentum of freight rates weakens, and the freight rate height in December may be limited. Attention should be paid to the price adjustment actions of other shipping companies [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On November 12, EC2512 closed at 1749.4 points, up 0.19% from the previous day's closing price. On November 7, the SCFI European line was reported at $1323/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%. The latest SCFIS European line reported after Monday's trading was 1504.8 points, a month - on - month increase of 24.5% [4][6]. - **Logic Analysis**: Shipping companies' long - term contract cargo has improved, but the upward momentum in the second half of November is weakening. MSK's Shanghai - Rotterdam quote for Week 48 decreased by $250 compared with last week. The freight rate in December may be limited. Attention should be paid to the price adjustment actions of other shipping companies. The demand from November to December is expected to gradually improve, and the current supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively sufficient, but there is still an expectation of price support [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the EC2602 contract, it is recommended to go long at low prices with a light position, and be vigilant against the risk of resumption of navigation. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see [8][9]. Industry News - On November 11, COSCO Shipping Specialized Transport Co., Ltd. launched three liner series products, including Southeast Asia heavy - lift liner, Northwest Europe liner, and Persian Gulf liner routes [9]. - The US envoy Kushner discussed the second - phase peace agreement for Gaza with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu [10]. - The US military is studying the establishment of a temporary base near the Gaza Strip to accommodate 10,000 people to supervise the cease - fire between Israel and Hamas [10]. Data Presentation - **Futures Disk**: The closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, trading volume change percentages, open interests, and open interest change percentages of different EC futures contracts on November 12 are presented. The price differences and their changes between different contracts are also shown [4]. - **Container Freight Rates**: The weekly container freight rates, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of various routes are provided, including the SCFIS European line, SCFIS US West line, and various SCFI routes [4]. - **Fuel Costs**: The prices, month - on - month changes, and year - on - year changes of WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil near - month contracts are given [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term, the 12 and 02 contracts of the container shipping index (European line) are expected to show divergent trends. The 02 contract is mainly driven by the logic of position transfer and basis correction, while the 12 contract follows the spot delivery logic. The 12 - 2 reverse spread logic may continue in the short term. The market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, and it is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [8][12][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Futures Market - On November 11, 2025, among different futures contracts, EC2602 had a significant increase of 5.33% to 1,690.5 points, with a trading volume increase of 351.24% and an open interest increase of 18.85%. EC2512 closed at 1,746.1 points, down 1.81% from the previous day [5] - The month - spread structure showed various changes. For example, the EC12 - EC02 spread was 56 points, down 117.7 points [5] 3.1.2 Container Freight Rates - The SCFIS European line index was 1504.80 points, with a week - on - week increase of 24.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 40.43%. The SCFIS US West line index was 1329.71 points, with a week - on - week increase of 4.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 52.84% [5] - Different container shipping routes had different price changes. For example, the SCFI: Shanghai - West Africa price was 3728 USD/TEU, with a week - on - week increase of 8.44% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.13% [5] 3.1.3 Fuel Costs - The WTI crude oil near - month price was 59.94 dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.45% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.92%. The Brent crude oil near - month price was 63.7 dollars per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.38% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.2% [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.2.1 Market Analysis - On November 11, the EC futures market was affected by position transfer and the uncertainty of the 02 contract's delivery settlement date. The EC2602 contract rose significantly due to position transfer and potential changes in the delivery settlement date. However, the final decision lies with the exchange [7] - In the short term, the 12 and 02 contracts are expected to show different trends. The 12 contract's valuation is under pressure as the shipping capacity is abundant in the second half of November, and the shipping companies' motivation to increase prices is weakening [8] - In terms of spot freight rates, although the long - term cargo of shipping companies has improved, the motivation to increase prices in the second half of November is weakening, and the expected price increase may not be fully realized. The freight rates in December may be restricted [9] - The shipping capacity from Shanghai to the Nordic 5 - port area in November and December is relatively stable, with only minor changes in this period. The shipping companies' cargo - handling performance after the Sino - US tariff reduction and the impact of the Spring Festival holiday on the EC2602 contract's valuation need to be monitored [9][10][11] 3.2.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: It is recommended to wait and see as the market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [12] - Arbitrage trading: It is recommended to wait and see [13] 3.3 Industry News - The CMA CGM Jules Verne on the OCEAN Alliance MED2 route is expected to reach the Suez Canal waters on November 14, which may indicate that the OCEAN Alliance is expanding its Red Sea test scope [14] - The first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza has been in effect for one month, but the implementation has been full of difficulties, and the second - stage cease - fire agreement is still uncertain [14] 3.4 Related Attachments - There are multiple figures showing the SCFIS European line index, SCFIS US West line index, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates of different routes over different time periods [17][18][20]

大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 11 月 10 日 航运日报 第一部分 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） 期货从业证号： F3084078 投资咨询证号： Z0018656 联系方式： :jiaruilin_qh@chinastock.com.cn | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | | | | 日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2512 | 1,778.2 | -33.8 | -1.87% | 20,403.0 | 19.17% | 26,680.0 | 3.06% | | EC2602 | 1,604.9 | 12.9 | 0.81% | 6,677.0 | 25.91% | 24,696.0 | 7.66% | | EC2604 | 1,166.1 | 1.5 | 0.13% | 1,652.0 | 38.47% | 14,451.0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The upward momentum of freight rates in the second half of November is insufficient, and the EC futures market declined on November 6. Spot freight rates show that the long - term cargo of shipping companies has improved, but the upward momentum in the second half of November has weakened. The demand from November to December is expected to gradually improve, but attention should be paid to the impact of possible tariff adjustments on the shipping rhythm. In terms of supply, the weekly average capacity from Shanghai to the 5 Nordic ports is increasing. Short - term attention should be paid to the shipping companies' cargo - collecting performance and the impact of the adjusted last trading day on the EC2602 contract valuation [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line) 3.1.1 Futures Market - The closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 contracts decreased, with declines of - 5.03%, - 3.09%, - 1.80%, - 0.83%, - 0.88%, and - 0.25% respectively. The trading volume of most contracts decreased, except for EC2608 and EC2610 which increased by 44.58% and 116.94% respectively. The positions of most contracts decreased, except for EC2602 which increased by 1.22% and EC2610 which increased by 12.23% [6]. - The spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the spread of EC12 - EC02 decreased by 46.8, and the spread of EC12 - EC04 decreased by 76.2 [6]. 3.1.2 Container Freight Rates - SCFIS European Line index was 1208.71 points, with a week - on - week decrease of - 7.92% and a year - on - year decrease of - 46.48%. SCFIS US West Line index was 1267.15 points, with a week - on - week increase of 14.43% and a year - on - year decrease of - 54.40%. The SCFI comprehensive index was 1550.70 points, with a week - on - week increase of 10.49% and a year - on - year decrease of - 29.04% [6]. 3.1.3 Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month contract was $59.48 per barrel, with a current ratio decrease of - 1.13% and a year - on - year decrease of - 16.69%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month contract was $63.28 per barrel, with a current ratio decrease of - 1.03% and a year - on - year decrease of - 15.4% [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.2.1 Market Analysis - MSK's WK47 weekly quote of $2250 was lower than market expectations, and the upward momentum of freight rates in the second half of November was insufficient, leading to a decline in the EC futures market. The spot price of SCFIS European Line decreased by 7.9%, slightly exceeding market expectations, mainly due to the change in the settlement index rhythm caused by the rolling and delay of some ships in the second half of October. Maersk expects the interference in the Red Sea area to last for a whole year and is cautious about the fourth - quarter development due to a large number of new ships entering the market. The Ministry of Commerce announced the adjustment of relevant restrictions on the US from November 10, and attention should be paid to the impact on shipping volume and rhythm [7]. 3.2.2 Strategy Recommendation - Unilateral trading: It is expected that the shipping companies' upward momentum in the second half of November will weaken, and the futures market has already factored in peak - season expectations. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9][10]. 3.3 Industry News - Maersk has selected New Times Shipbuilding to build 8 + 4 18000TEU dual - fuel LNG - powered container ships, with new ships expected to be delivered from 2028 to 2029. The total cost of all 12 ships will reach $2.316 billion if the optional orders are confirmed [10]. - The EU - China Chamber of Commerce expressed deep concern about the EU's investigation into the so - called subsidy issue of Chinese enterprises, emphasizing that the EU's "Foreign Subsidies Regulation" should not be used as a unilateral tool for protectionism [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. Spot freight rates are expected to gradually rise from November to December, and shipping companies are likely to continue to announce price increases. The market should focus on the implementation of these price increases. In terms of fundamentals, the shipping volume from November to December is expected to gradually improve, and attention should be paid to the impact of possible tariff improvements on the shipping rhythm. The shipping capacity from October to November remains relatively stable, with a slight increase in the average weekly shipping capacity in December. There are expectations of a reduction in port fees, and the progress of the cease - fire agreement in the Middle East is tortuous and has recently escalated. The China - US economic and trade consultations have basically reached a consensus, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff relaxation on future shipping volume and rhythm [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Futures Contract Performance**: On October 30, 2025, the closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 decreased, with declines of - 1.45%, - 1.43%, - 1.55%, - 1.38%, - 2.22%, and - 0.63% respectively. The trading volumes of these contracts all decreased, with decreases of - 49.05%, - 47.43%, - 35.57%, - 38.06%, - 10.53%, and - 21.46% respectively. The positions of some contracts increased, while others decreased [4]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes. For example, the spread of EC12 - EC02 decreased by 4.2, and the spread of EC02 - EC08 increased by 10.8 [4]. 3.2 Container Freight Rates - **Weekly Container Freight Rates**: The SCFIS European line index was 1312.71 points, with a week - on - week increase of 15.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 40.54%. The SCFIS US West line index was 1107.32 points, with a week - on - week increase of 28.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 60.70%. Different routes of the SCFI index also showed different trends in price changes [4]. 3.3 Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month was $60.00 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.56%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month was $64.3 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.5% [4]. 3.4 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - **Market Analysis**: The China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have basically reached a consensus. Some shipping companies have lowered their spot quotes, and the market is continuously gaming the subsequent freight rates. The EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. The spot freight rates of mainstream shipping companies have a large price difference, and the spot price center is expected to gradually rise. In terms of fundamentals, the demand from November to December is expected to improve, and the supply capacity in December will increase slightly. There are expectations of a reduction in port fees, and the Middle East geopolitical situation has escalated. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff relaxation on future shipping volume and rhythm [5][6]. - **Trading Strategies**: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to maintain a volatile view and mainly wait and see in the short term. For arbitrage trading, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.5 Industry News - Israel's military has started to re - implement the Gaza cease - fire agreement, while the Israeli Defense Forces will continue to take actions to eliminate any direct threats [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange has announced a new trading limit for non-futures company members and foreign special non-broker participants, effective from October 15, 2025, which restricts the maximum number of open positions in the container shipping index (European line) futures contracts to 200 lots for intraday trading [1] Group 1 - The new trading limit applies specifically to non-futures company members, foreign special non-broker participants, and clients [1] - The maximum number of open positions for related accounts under actual control will be executed according to individual clients [1] - Hedging and market-making trades are exempt from this limit on open positions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cease - fire negotiation suppresses the market sentiment, but there is still an expectation of price increase during the long - term contract season for shipping companies. The market price of EC2512 rebounded in the afternoon. The freight rates of some shipping companies are expected to rise in the second half of October, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the price increase. The demand for goods continues to decline seasonally, and the supply capacity has decreased compared with the previous period. The cease - fire negotiation and resumption of flights are expected to suppress the far - month contracts [6][7]. - For trading strategies, in terms of single - sided trading, the far - month contracts are more affected by the cease - fire in the Palestine - Israel conflict. The remaining long positions of EC2512 can be held, and if there is a significant correction in the near - month contract EC2512, one can consider buying on dips and operate flexibly. For arbitrage, the 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage can be operated on dips in a rolling manner, and the 2 - 4 positive arbitrage should be continued to be held [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On October 9, 2025, for the container shipping index (European line) futures, different contracts showed different price changes. For example, EC2512 closed at 1688 points, down 2.53% from the previous day's closing price. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed to varying degrees. The month - spread structure of different contract combinations also had corresponding price differences and changes [4]. - **Spot Market**: On September 26, the SCFI European line was reported at 971 US dollars/TEU, a month - on - month decrease of 7.8%. On October 6, the latest SCFIS European line was reported at 1046.5 points, a month - on - month decrease of 6.6%. Some shipping companies have successively adjusted and increased the freight rates for the second half of October. MSK released a price increase letter for November, targeting a price increase to 2500 US dollars/FEU, and CMA released a quote of 3600 US dollars/FEU for Shanghai - Le Havre in mid - November [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In terms of demand, the volume of goods continues to decline seasonally, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff policies on the shipping rhythm. In terms of supply, the average weekly capacity of Shanghai - 5 Nordic ports from September to November 2025 was 267,900/251,600/277,600 TEU respectively, and the average weekly capacity in December was 288,500 TEU, showing a decrease compared with the previous period. The long - term contract season price increase from November to December is about to start, and the US 301 port levy measure may be implemented on October 14. Attention should be paid to the subsequent ship allocation and empty - sailing plans during the long - term contract season [7]. - **Risk Factors**: The cease - fire negotiation in the Palestine - Israel conflict and the progress of resuming flights are expected to suppress the far - month contracts [7]. 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendation - **Single - sided Trading**: The far - month contracts are more affected by the cease - fire in the Palestine - Israel conflict. The remaining long positions of EC2512 can be held. If there is a significant correction in the near - month contract EC2512, one can consider buying on dips and operate flexibly [8]. - **Arbitrage**: The 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage can be operated on dips in a rolling manner, and the 2 - 4 positive arbitrage should be continued to be held [9]. 3.2 Industry News - **Trade Policy**: The US new proposal may weaken the recent EU - US trade agreement. The EU plans to cut the duty - free steel import volume in half to 1.83 billion tons per year, and the steel imports exceeding this quota will face a 50% tariff. Trump announced that a 25% tariff will be imposed on all medium - and heavy - duty trucks entering the US from other countries starting from November 1 [10][11]. - **Economic Data**: The Sentix investor confidence index in the eurozone in October was - 5.4, better than the expected - 8.5 and the previous value of - 9.2. The final value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in September was 54.2, higher than the expected 53.9 and the previous value of 53.9; the final value of the US S&P Global Composite PMI in September was 53.9, higher than the expected 53.6 and the previous value of 53.6 [11]. - **Shipping Industry News**: The negotiation between the Belgian government and the pilots' association has stagnated, and the pilots have launched a "work - to - rule" action since October 5. HMM has determined to place an order for a new batch of large - scale container ships with two Korean shipyards, with a total investment of more than 2.2 billion US dollars [11]. - **Red Sea Situation**: After Trump announced the first - stage peace plan between Israel and Hamas, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said he would convene the cabinet to approve the agreement and bring back all the detained personnel [12][13]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple figures, including the SCFIS European line index and the SCFIS US West line index, the SCFI comprehensive index, and the container freight rates of Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East, Shanghai - Europe, etc., as well as the basis of EC10 and EC12 contracts [15][17][22].

Group 1 - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange announced the trading schedule for the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival in 2025, indicating no night trading on September 30, 2025, and a market closure from October 1 to October 8, 2025, with trading resuming on October 9, 2025 [1] Group 2 - Starting from the settlement on September 29, 2025, the margin ratios and price fluctuation limits for various futures contracts will be adjusted, including a 9% fluctuation limit for international copper futures and a 12% limit for crude oil and low-sulfur fuel oil futures [2] - The margin ratio for international copper futures will be set at 10% for hedging positions and 11% for general positions, while crude oil futures will have a 13% margin for hedging and 14% for general positions [2] Group 3 - On October 9, 2025, after the first trading day without a one-sided market, the price fluctuation limits and margin ratios for all futures contracts will revert to their original levels [2][3]