船司挺价
Search documents
航运日报:马士基开仓价格确认,关注12月上半月涨价落地情况-20251119
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 03:01
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the container shipping market, including shipping prices, capacity supply, contract trading, and potential investment opportunities and risks. It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation of price increases in December and the potential for significant differences in the February 2026 contract. The 12 - month contract is expected to oscillate, while the February contract is likely to show a slightly stronger upward trend [4][5][8]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Multiple shipping companies have different price quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in November and December. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk had a 48 - week price of 1230/2060 and a December first - week price of 1600/2500. HPL - SPOT's 12 - month price shows a significant increase from the second half of November [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Hamas rejects the UN Security Council's resolution on Gaza, and resistance against Israel remains a concern, which may impact the shipping market [2]. - **Dynamic Supply**: In November, the weekly average capacity was 27.58 million TEU, and in December, it is 31.3 million TEU. There were 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November, and 4 TBNs and 1 blank sailing in December [3]. Contract Analysis - **December Contracts**: The trading of December contracts is about rhythm. Shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for next - year's long - term contract negotiations. Currently, the price center in the second half of November is around 2100 - 2200 dollars/FEU, and the bottom support of December contracts is rising [4]. - **February 2026 Contracts**: There may be a large expected difference, but it is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed shipping. The delivery and settlement time is determined, and its price is likely to reflect the spot price center at the end of January 2026 [5]. Shipping Capacity and Delivery - **Container Ship Delivery**: 2025 is a major year for container ship delivery. As of November 9, 2025, 226 ships with a total capacity of 1.879 million TEU have been delivered, including 71 ships of 12000 - 16999 TEU with a total capacity of 1.072 million TEU and 12 ships of over 17000 TEU with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [7]. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The 12 - month contract is expected to oscillate, while the February contract is likely to show a slightly stronger upward trend [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: No relevant arbitrage strategy is provided [8]. Market Data - **Futures Data**: As of November 18, 2025, the total position of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 70,638.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 38,037.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as EC2602 at 1678.10 [6]. - **Spot Data**: On November 14, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1417 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 1823 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 2600 dollars/FEU. On November 17, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1357.67 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1238.42 points [6].