集运指数（欧线）期货日报 2026/3/4 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC主力收盘价 | 318.2↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1909.500 | | 2228.9 | +142.80↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2604-EC2606价差 +217.50↑ EC2604-EC2608价差 | -319.40 | | -331.50 | +301.30↑ | | EC合约基差 | | -446.10 | -264.70↓ | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | | 38618 | -5456↓ | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） -110.11↓ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bottom of the February contract valuation is expected to be around 1700 points, and factors such as ship delays and the online cargo collection ratio of different alliances will affect the final settlement price [5] - The pre - holiday freight rate drive is weak, and the EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate recently. Attention should be paid to the implementation of shipping companies' price support in March after the holiday [6] - For more distant contracts, there is intense speculation about the resumption time, and the volatility is expected to remain high. If the Suez Canal does not resume operation in the first half of 2026, the pressure on the capacity side is relatively controllable, and the freight rate may still be expected to rise. Investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [7] Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1. Futures Price - As of February 5, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index (European line) futures contracts was 60,878 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 52,502 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1743.00, 1268.20, 1568.20, 1630.50, 1131.80, and 1420.20 respectively [8] 2. Spot Price - On February 1, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) was 1418 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 1867 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 2605 US dollars/FEU. On February 2, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1792.14 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1101.40 points [8] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply Static Supply - As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU were delivered in 2026. Among them, 2 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 28,000 TEU) and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (17,148 TEU) were delivered. In the future, the delivery volume of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships from 2026 - 2029 is 737,400 TEU (50 ships), 944,600 TEU (64 ships), 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships), and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) respectively; the delivery volume of over 17,000 TEU ships is 192,900 TEU (8 ships), 862,800 TEU (40 ships), 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships), and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) respectively. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 [3] Dynamic Supply - The average weekly capacity in February was 263,100 TEU, with capacities of 300,400 TEU, 312,700 TEU, 271,300 TEU, and 168,200 TEU in weeks 6 - 9. The average weekly capacity in March was 313,400 TEU, with capacities of 245,200 TEU, 321,000 TEU, 365,000 TEU, 317,000 TEU, and 319,000 TEU in weeks 10 - 14. The average weekly capacity in April was 279,000 TEU, with capacities of 291,300 TEU, 317,700 TEU, 266,500 TEU, and 241,200 TEU in weeks 15 - 18. There were 12 blank sailings in February, and 6 blank sailings and 2 TBN in March [4] 4. Supply Chain - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. The full resumption of the Red Sea has no clear schedule, and multiple conditions need to be met. Since mid - February 2026, Maersk's ME11 route has been adjusted, and subsequent adjustments to AE12 and AE15 services are also planned [7] 5. Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products such as photovoltaics may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. Attention should be paid to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be stronger than in normal years [6] Strategies Unilateral - The EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate [9] Arbitrage - None at present [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The estimated bottom value of the February contract is around 1700 points, and factors such as ship - schedule delays and the online cargo - collection ratio of different alliances will affect the final delivery settlement price. The cargo volume in December and January is at a relatively high level within the year [4]. - Before the Spring Festival, the driving force for freight rates is weak. The EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the near term. Attention should be paid to whether the shipping companies' price - support measures are effective in March after the festival. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products like photovoltaic may disrupt the shipping rhythm and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The price of Maersk has provided an overall price guidance for February, while the prices of the PA and OA alliances have declined. The shipping capacity in March has increased by 19% compared to February. There is an expectation of price support in March [5]. - For more distant - month contracts, the game over the resumption time is intense, and the volatility is expected to remain at a high level. The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. Maersk will adjust some routes to pass through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. The delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels in the first half of 2026 is relatively small. If the Suez Canal does not resume operation in the first half of the year, the shipping capacity pressure will be relatively controllable, and higher freight rates can be expected. Investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on EC2606 and short on EC2610 [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of February 3, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index (Europe route) futures contracts is 58,854.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 34,792.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1737.80, 1237.90, 1533.70, 1597.90, 1128.60, and 1439.00 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - On February 1, 2026, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1418 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price is 1867 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price is 2605 US dollars/FEU. On February 2, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1792.14 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) is 1101.40 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU have been delivered in 2026. Among them, 2 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU (total 28,000 TEU) and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU (17,148 TEU) have been delivered. In the remaining months of 2026, 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships are expected to deliver 737,400 TEU (50 ships), 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large vessels in 2026 is relatively small, with only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU delivered in the first half of 2026 [2][3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly shipping capacity in February is 263,100 TEU, with the capacities in weeks 6, 7, 8, and 9 being 300,400 TEU, 312,700 TEU, 271,300 TEU, and 168,200 TEU respectively. The average weekly shipping capacity in March is 313,400 TEU, and in April is 279,000 TEU. There are 12 blank sailings in February and 6 blank sailings and 2 TBNs in March [3]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk will adjust the ME11 route structure starting from mid - February 2026, passing through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. If possible, it will also adjust the AE12 and AE15 services in subsequent stages to pass through these areas. The full resumption of the Red Sea route requires multiple conditions to be met, and the current detour has become the new normal for the customer supply chain [2][6]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for products like photovoltaic by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration on January 8, 2026, may disrupt the shipping rhythm of relevant industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. Attention should be paid to whether the cargo volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than in normal years [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The February contract valuation bottom of the container shipping index (European Line) futures may be around 1700 points, and factors such as vessel schedule delays and the online cargo collection ratios of different alliances will affect the final delivery settlement price [5]. - Before the Spring Festival, the freight rate driver is weak. The EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate in the near - term. Attention should be paid to the implementation of shipping companies' price - holding strategies in March after the festival. The cancellation of VAT export tax rebates for photovoltaic and other products may disrupt the shipping rhythm and shipping companies' pricing strategies [6]. - For more distant contracts, the resumption time of the Suez Canal is uncertain. With relatively fewer ultra - large vessel deliveries in 2026, there may still be an expectation gap. Investors can consider arbitrage opportunities in contracts such as long EC2606 short EC2610 and long EC2608 short EC2610 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes for different shipping alliances on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route vary. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk quotes for WEEK6 - WEEK9 are 1295/2070, 1230/1960, 1205/1910, and 1200/1900 respectively; HPL's quotes for February and March also show differences [1]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Supply - Geopolitically, a White House official will visit Israel and meet with Netanyahu [3]. - Static supply: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU have been delivered in 2026. The delivery expectations for 12000 - 16999TEU and 17000 + TEU ships from 2026 - 2029 are provided, with relatively less delivery pressure for ultra - large ships in 2026 [3]. - Dynamic supply: The monthly average weekly capacity in February is 263,100 TEU, in March is 313,400 TEU, and in April is 279,000 TEU. There are 12 blank sailings in February and 6 blank sailings and 2 TBNs in March [4]. 3.3 Contract and Price Analysis - The final trading day of the EC2602 contract is February 9, 2026, and its delivery settlement price is the arithmetic average of the three - phase delivery settlement prices on January 26, February 2, and February 9, 2026. The preliminary estimated valuation bottom of the February contract delivery settlement price is around 1700 points [5]. - The freight rate before the Spring Festival is weakly driven. The EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate. The freight rates of some shipping companies in March have increased, and the capacity in March has increased by 19% compared to February [6]. 3.4 Strategy - Unilateral: The April contract is expected to fluctuate. - Arbitrage: None currently [9] 3.5 Market Data - As of February 2, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European Line) futures is 58,198 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 42,731 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc. are provided [8]. - The SCFI and SCFIS prices for different routes on February 1 and February 2 are also given [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The estimated bottom value of the February contract is around 1700 points, and shipping delays and online cargo - booking ratios of different alliances will affect the final delivery settlement price [4]. - Before the Spring Festival, the freight rate drive is weak. The market is speculating on the price - holding expectation of relatively low capacity pressure in March. The near - term 04 contract is expected to fluctuate. The 04 contract's volatility is expected to increase, and investors are advised to participate cautiously. The 04 contract's drive is bearish [5][6][8]. - For longer - term contracts, the resumption time of the Suez Canal is uncertain, and the delivery of very large ships in 2026 is relatively small, so the longer - term contracts are expected to have large fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of January 27, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index (European line) futures contracts is 60,170.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 29,874.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1717.50, 1193.90, 1442.20, 1528.40, 1112.00, and 1374.70 respectively [7]. II. Spot Prices - On January 23, 2026, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1595 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2084 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 2896 US dollars/FEU. On January 26, 2026, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1859.31 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1294.32 points [7]. III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of December 31, 2025, 268 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.155 million TEU. Among them, 80 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.213 million TEU; 13 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered, with a total capacity of 277,672 TEU. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 781,200 TEU (53 ships) will be delivered in 2026, 944,500 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1.212 million TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships over 17,000 TEU, 210,400 TEU (9 ships) will be delivered in 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1.5734 million TEU (78 ships) in 2028, and 1.3755 million TEU (67 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of very large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of ships over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships over 17,000 TEU will be delivered in the first half of 2026 [2][3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: The average weekly capacity in February is 283,000 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 6, 7, 8, and 9 are 340,000, 342,000, 261,100, and 188,300 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in March is 295,800 TEU, and the capacities in weeks 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14 are 252,400, 338,600, 348,700, 285,200, and 254,500 TEU respectively. There are 13 blank sailings in February (6 by the OA alliance, 6 by the PA alliance, and 1 by the Gemini alliance) and 5 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March [3]. IV. Supply Chain - Hamas officials said they have fulfilled all the terms of the first phase of the cease - fire agreement. On January 15, Maersk announced that with the improvement of stability in the Red Sea area, the company will resume the Suez Canal route of the MECL service to improve transportation efficiency on the premise of ensuring safety. CMA has decided to divert ships deployed on the FAL 1, FAL 3, and MEX routes via the Cape of Good Hope instead of passing through the Suez Canal [2][6]. V. Demand and European Economy - In normal years, April and October are the months with the lowest freight rates in a year. The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced on January 8, 2026, that the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaic will be cancelled, which may disrupt the shipping rhythm of related industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. It is necessary to pay attention to whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rates will be stronger than in normal years [5].

Core Viewpoint - The shipping rates for the MSC in the second half of January remain stable compared to the first half, indicating a potential peak in freight rates [2][8]. Group 1: Freight Rates and Contracts - The EC2602 contract shows that MSC's rates for the second half of January are at $2,840 per FEU, consistent with the first half [2][8]. - Maersk's rate for the fourth week of January from Shanghai to Rotterdam is $2,700 per FEU, reflecting a $100 increase from the previous week, while the rate from Ningbo to Rotterdam is reported at $2,400 per FEU [2][8]. - The PA Alliance's rates for January 16-22 are at $2,600 per FEU, and the OA Alliance's rates range from $2,800 to $2,950 per FEU [2][8]. - The estimated settlement price for the EC2602 contract is projected to be between 1,750 and 1,850 points under pessimistic scenarios, with a focus on price adjustments in the latter half of January [2][8]. Group 2: Future Outlook and Market Conditions - The long-term contracts face pressure due to the anticipated reopening of the Suez Canal, which may lead to downward adjustments in valuations [3][9]. - The SCFI rates for the Shanghai-Europe route during normal years (2017-2019) ranged from $600 to $1,200 per FEU, indicating potential future benchmarks [3][9]. - The CMA FAL1 route is set to fully resume operations in January 2026, while the FAL3 route has begun trial runs [3][9]. - The overall market outlook for the first half of 2026 suggests limited pressure from new large vessel deliveries, with only four vessels (totaling 89,776 TEU) expected [4][9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures price of the Container Freight Index (European Line) rose slightly. The main contract EC2602 closed up 1.75%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight index was 1510.56, up 1.46 points from last week, a 0.1% increase. The Christmas stocking demand is beneficial for the futures price to rise, but the price increase announcements failed to materialize, and leading shipping companies have successively lowered the container prices, causing the previous price increase to be reversed. The traditional peak - season boost effect may be weaker than expected due to high tax rates on exports to the US. The freight market is highly influenced by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][7][39] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - Futures contracts: EC2512 fell 1.28% (- 21.20), closing at 1630.10; EC2602 rose 1.75% (29.60), closing at 1719.80; EC2604 rose 0.71% (8.00), closing at 1128.80; EC2606 rose 2.16% (27.20), closing at 1288.30; EC2608 rose 1.59% (22.70), closing at 1453.20; EC2610 rose 1.63% (16.80), closing at 1050.30. The SCFIS index rose 0.1% (1.46), closing at 1510.56. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2512 contract showed a divergence this week [9][10][15] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - China's re - implementation of export license management for steel after 16 years aims to strengthen monitoring, statistics and analysis of steel product exports and track product quality. The EU's FSR investigations on Chinese enterprises are opposed by China. The full - scale customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18 expanded the "zero - tariff" commodity scope to over 6600 tariff items. The EU Commission proposed to relax the 2035 "ban on fuel - powered vehicles" requirement to a 90% emission reduction. The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the fourth consecutive time. The Fed's Williams said that the US unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4.5% by the end of 2025, and inflation is expected to rise to 2.5% in 2026 and fall to 2% in 2027 [18] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Freight Index (European Line) futures contracts both contracted this week. The export container freight index rebounded slightly. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, while European - line shipping capacity decreased slightly. The BDI and BPI declined, and freight rates fluctuated slightly. The charter price of Panamax ships continued to rise, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [24][27][31] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core viewpoints, the Christmas stocking demand is beneficial for the futures price to rise, but the price increase announcements failed to materialize, and the traditional peak - season boost effect may be weaker than expected. The freight market is highly influenced by news, and investors are advised to be cautious and track relevant data [39][40]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, while the February contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. There is currently no arbitrage opportunity. The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downward. The implementation of the price increase in January and the delivery of container ships in 2025 need to be closely monitored [6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of December 4, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 64,733 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 31,055 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1585.00, 1090.10, 1255.10, 1385.60, 1040.20, and 1649.10 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from various shipping companies show price changes from December. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price increased from 1440/2240 in the second week of December to 1530/2400 in the third week, and it announced a price increase letter of 2275/3500 for January. The upper - half - month price of MSC + Premier Alliance was 1485/2465 in December, and the lower - half - month price was 1605/2665. The 12 - month contract settlement price is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on December 15th, 22nd, and 29th. The preliminary estimate of SCFIS on December 15th is around 1600 - 1650 points, and around 1700 - 1750 points on December 22nd [1][4]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the monthly average weekly capacity was 318,400 TEU, and in January, it was 328,000 TEU, with 4 blank sailings in December and 3 TBNs in January (all from the OA Alliance). Maersk added an extra - sailing ship in week 51. As of November 29, 2025, 243 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.985 million TEU [3][7]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd launched a Cape of Good Hope network due to the ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea. There is currently no specific time to change the east - west route of the Gemini to pass through the Red Sea. The resumption of the Suez Canal in 2026 may increase the effective capacity supply and put downward pressure on freight rates [2][6]. 5. Demand and European Economy - No specific content directly related to demand and European economy analysis is provided in the text other than some data charts mentioned, so no detailed summary can be made.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market is digesting the news of freight rate increase announcements for the second half of December, which has slightly boosted the EC futures market. There are still differences in the market's expectations for the implementation of the announced rate increases. The trading strategy suggests considering buying the EC2602 contract on dips and continuing to hold the 2 - 4 calendar spread [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (Europe Line) - **Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation** - The market digested the news of rate increases in the second half of December, driving the EC futures slightly up. On December 1st, EC2512 closed at 1636.7 points, up 0.34% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS Europe Line index was 1483.65 points, down 9.5% month - on - month, slightly lower than expected [5]. - The long - term cargo of shipping companies has improved, and with the arrival of the traditional peak season in December, shipping company quotes are gradually released, but there are differences in the market's expectations for implementation. The demand from December to January is expected to improve, and the shipping capacity from Shanghai to Northern Europe in December slightly increased due to the delay of some ships arriving at the port at the end of November. The trading logic of the 12 and 02 contracts may diverge. The 12 contract follows the price in the second half of December, while the 02 contract is more about the expected rate increase in January. The probability of route resumption may increase after the Spring Festival [5][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider buying the EC2602 contract on dips and continue to hold the 2 - 4 calendar spread [7][8]. - **Industry News** - Newcastle Port in Australia will resume operations on December 1st after being blocked by climate activists. Shipping of general cargo and alumina to the Tomago aluminum smelter was interrupted [9]. - Maersk announced improvements to its Maersk Go product, and a revised policy on late booking modifications will take effect on December 4th [9]. - US and Ukrainian negotiators had productive discussions on the peace agreement framework, but no final breakthrough has been made [9]. 3.2 Relevant Attachments The report includes multiple figures showing various container shipping indices and container freight rates, such as SCFIS Europe Line and US West Line indices, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates from Shanghai to different regions [11][15][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the container shipping market, including shipping prices, capacity supply, contract trading, and potential investment opportunities and risks. It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation of price increases in December and the potential for significant differences in the February 2026 contract. The 12 - month contract is expected to oscillate, while the February contract is likely to show a slightly stronger upward trend [4][5][8]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Multiple shipping companies have different price quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in November and December. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk had a 48 - week price of 1230/2060 and a December first - week price of 1600/2500. HPL - SPOT's 12 - month price shows a significant increase from the second half of November [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Hamas rejects the UN Security Council's resolution on Gaza, and resistance against Israel remains a concern, which may impact the shipping market [2]. - **Dynamic Supply**: In November, the weekly average capacity was 27.58 million TEU, and in December, it is 31.3 million TEU. There were 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November, and 4 TBNs and 1 blank sailing in December [3]. Contract Analysis - **December Contracts**: The trading of December contracts is about rhythm. Shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for next - year's long - term contract negotiations. Currently, the price center in the second half of November is around 2100 - 2200 dollars/FEU, and the bottom support of December contracts is rising [4]. - **February 2026 Contracts**: There may be a large expected difference, but it is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed shipping. The delivery and settlement time is determined, and its price is likely to reflect the spot price center at the end of January 2026 [5]. Shipping Capacity and Delivery - **Container Ship Delivery**: 2025 is a major year for container ship delivery. As of November 9, 2025, 226 ships with a total capacity of 1.879 million TEU have been delivered, including 71 ships of 12000 - 16999 TEU with a total capacity of 1.072 million TEU and 12 ships of over 17000 TEU with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [7]. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The 12 - month contract is expected to oscillate, while the February contract is likely to show a slightly stronger upward trend [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: No relevant arbitrage strategy is provided [8]. Market Data - **Futures Data**: As of November 18, 2025, the total position of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 70,638.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 38,037.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as EC2602 at 1678.10 [6]. - **Spot Data**: On November 14, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1417 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 1823 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 2600 dollars/FEU. On November 17, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1357.67 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1238.42 points [6].