EC2602合约，MSC下半月运价持平上半月，马士基宁波-鹿特丹报价2400美元/FEU，运价顶或已出现。 12月份以及1月份货量处于年内较高位置。根据上期能源相关交易规则，集运指数（欧线）期货EC2602 合约的最后交易日为2026年2月9日。 EC2602合约交割结算价格为2026年1月26日、2月2日以及2月9日 三期交割结算价格的算数平均值。2026年除夕为2月16日，除夕前半个月内基本货代产业以及部分货主 已经春节放假，所以2月合约交割结算价格基本反映1月底现货价格中枢。MSC1月下半月价格2840美 元/FEU（持平上半月），马士基1月第四周上海-鹿特丹报价2700美元/FEU（环比上涨100美元/FEU，但 是宁波-鹿特丹价格报出2400美元/FEU），PA联盟YML 1/16-22日价格为2600美元/FEU，OA联盟EMC 1/16-22日价格介于2800-2950美元/FEU。目前马士基1月第四周，宁波-鹿特丹以及上海至格但斯克价格 均调整为2400美元/FEU，后续需关注该价格是否会引发PA联盟价格修正的负反馈。考虑到MSC以及OA 联盟1月下半月价格相对较高，可以初步假设第一期交割结算 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures price of the Container Freight Index (European Line) rose slightly. The main contract EC2602 closed up 1.75%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight index was 1510.56, up 1.46 points from last week, a 0.1% increase. The Christmas stocking demand is beneficial for the futures price to rise, but the price increase announcements failed to materialize, and leading shipping companies have successively lowered the container prices, causing the previous price increase to be reversed. The traditional peak - season boost effect may be weaker than expected due to high tax rates on exports to the US. The freight market is highly influenced by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][7][39] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - Futures contracts: EC2512 fell 1.28% (- 21.20), closing at 1630.10; EC2602 rose 1.75% (29.60), closing at 1719.80; EC2604 rose 0.71% (8.00), closing at 1128.80; EC2606 rose 2.16% (27.20), closing at 1288.30; EC2608 rose 1.59% (22.70), closing at 1453.20; EC2610 rose 1.63% (16.80), closing at 1050.30. The SCFIS index rose 0.1% (1.46), closing at 1510.56. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2512 contract showed a divergence this week [9][10][15] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - China's re - implementation of export license management for steel after 16 years aims to strengthen monitoring, statistics and analysis of steel product exports and track product quality. The EU's FSR investigations on Chinese enterprises are opposed by China. The full - scale customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18 expanded the "zero - tariff" commodity scope to over 6600 tariff items. The EU Commission proposed to relax the 2035 "ban on fuel - powered vehicles" requirement to a 90% emission reduction. The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the fourth consecutive time. The Fed's Williams said that the US unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4.5% by the end of 2025, and inflation is expected to rise to 2.5% in 2026 and fall to 2% in 2027 [18] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Freight Index (European Line) futures contracts both contracted this week. The export container freight index rebounded slightly. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, while European - line shipping capacity decreased slightly. The BDI and BPI declined, and freight rates fluctuated slightly. The charter price of Panamax ships continued to rise, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [24][27][31] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core viewpoints, the Christmas stocking demand is beneficial for the futures price to rise, but the price increase announcements failed to materialize, and the traditional peak - season boost effect may be weaker than expected. The freight market is highly influenced by news, and investors are advised to be cautious and track relevant data [39][40]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract is expected to fluctuate, while the February contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. There is currently no arbitrage opportunity. The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations may be revised downward. The implementation of the price increase in January and the delivery of container ships in 2025 need to be closely monitored [6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Price - As of December 4, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 64,733 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 31,055 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1585.00, 1090.10, 1255.10, 1385.60, 1040.20, and 1649.10 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - Online quotes from various shipping companies show price changes from December. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam price increased from 1440/2240 in the second week of December to 1530/2400 in the third week, and it announced a price increase letter of 2275/3500 for January. The upper - half - month price of MSC + Premier Alliance was 1485/2465 in December, and the lower - half - month price was 1605/2665. The 12 - month contract settlement price is the arithmetic average of the SCFIS on December 15th, 22nd, and 29th. The preliminary estimate of SCFIS on December 15th is around 1600 - 1650 points, and around 1700 - 1750 points on December 22nd [1][4]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the monthly average weekly capacity was 318,400 TEU, and in January, it was 328,000 TEU, with 4 blank sailings in December and 3 TBNs in January (all from the OA Alliance). Maersk added an extra - sailing ship in week 51. As of November 29, 2025, 243 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.985 million TEU [3][7]. 4. Supply Chain - Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd launched a Cape of Good Hope network due to the ongoing turmoil in the Red Sea. There is currently no specific time to change the east - west route of the Gemini to pass through the Red Sea. The resumption of the Suez Canal in 2026 may increase the effective capacity supply and put downward pressure on freight rates [2][6]. 5. Demand and European Economy - No specific content directly related to demand and European economy analysis is provided in the text other than some data charts mentioned, so no detailed summary can be made.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The market is digesting the news of freight rate increase announcements for the second half of December, which has slightly boosted the EC futures market. There are still differences in the market's expectations for the implementation of the announced rate increases. The trading strategy suggests considering buying the EC2602 contract on dips and continuing to hold the 2 - 4 calendar spread [5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (Europe Line) - **Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation** - The market digested the news of rate increases in the second half of December, driving the EC futures slightly up. On December 1st, EC2512 closed at 1636.7 points, up 0.34% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS Europe Line index was 1483.65 points, down 9.5% month - on - month, slightly lower than expected [5]. - The long - term cargo of shipping companies has improved, and with the arrival of the traditional peak season in December, shipping company quotes are gradually released, but there are differences in the market's expectations for implementation. The demand from December to January is expected to improve, and the shipping capacity from Shanghai to Northern Europe in December slightly increased due to the delay of some ships arriving at the port at the end of November. The trading logic of the 12 and 02 contracts may diverge. The 12 contract follows the price in the second half of December, while the 02 contract is more about the expected rate increase in January. The probability of route resumption may increase after the Spring Festival [5][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider buying the EC2602 contract on dips and continue to hold the 2 - 4 calendar spread [7][8]. - **Industry News** - Newcastle Port in Australia will resume operations on December 1st after being blocked by climate activists. Shipping of general cargo and alumina to the Tomago aluminum smelter was interrupted [9]. - Maersk announced improvements to its Maersk Go product, and a revised policy on late booking modifications will take effect on December 4th [9]. - US and Ukrainian negotiators had productive discussions on the peace agreement framework, but no final breakthrough has been made [9]. 3.2 Relevant Attachments The report includes multiple figures showing various container shipping indices and container freight rates, such as SCFIS Europe Line and US West Line indices, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates from Shanghai to different regions [11][15][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the container shipping market, including shipping prices, capacity supply, contract trading, and potential investment opportunities and risks. It emphasizes the importance of monitoring the implementation of price increases in December and the potential for significant differences in the February 2026 contract. The 12 - month contract is expected to oscillate, while the February contract is likely to show a slightly stronger upward trend [4][5][8]. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Online Quotes**: Multiple shipping companies have different price quotes for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route in November and December. For example, Gemini Cooperation's Maersk had a 48 - week price of 1230/2060 and a December first - week price of 1600/2500. HPL - SPOT's 12 - month price shows a significant increase from the second half of November [1]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: Hamas rejects the UN Security Council's resolution on Gaza, and resistance against Israel remains a concern, which may impact the shipping market [2]. - **Dynamic Supply**: In November, the weekly average capacity was 27.58 million TEU, and in December, it is 31.3 million TEU. There were 10 blank sailings and 1 TBN in November, and 4 TBNs and 1 blank sailing in December [3]. Contract Analysis - **December Contracts**: The trading of December contracts is about rhythm. Shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates high for next - year's long - term contract negotiations. Currently, the price center in the second half of November is around 2100 - 2200 dollars/FEU, and the bottom support of December contracts is rising [4]. - **February 2026 Contracts**: There may be a large expected difference, but it is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed shipping. The delivery and settlement time is determined, and its price is likely to reflect the spot price center at the end of January 2026 [5]. Shipping Capacity and Delivery - **Container Ship Delivery**: 2025 is a major year for container ship delivery. As of November 9, 2025, 226 ships with a total capacity of 1.879 million TEU have been delivered, including 71 ships of 12000 - 16999 TEU with a total capacity of 1.072 million TEU and 12 ships of over 17000 TEU with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [7]. Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: The 12 - month contract is expected to oscillate, while the February contract is likely to show a slightly stronger upward trend [8]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: No relevant arbitrage strategy is provided [8]. Market Data - **Futures Data**: As of November 18, 2025, the total position of all contracts of the container shipping index (European line) futures was 70,638.00 lots, and the daily trading volume was 38,037.00 lots. The closing prices of different contracts vary, such as EC2602 at 1678.10 [6]. - **Spot Data**: On November 14, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1417 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) was 1823 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) was 2600 dollars/FEU. On November 17, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1357.67 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) was 1238.42 points [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The freight rate lacks support due to the weak export performance in October, although there are signs of improvement in the trade - war situation and a potential turning point in geopolitical conflicts. With the arrival of the fourth - quarter shipping peak season, the demand side may recover. The current freight rate market is highly influenced by news, and the futures price is expected to experience more significant fluctuations. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data in a timely manner [9][43] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Market Review - The prices of container shipping index (European Line) futures varied this week. The main contract EC2602 rose 1.12%, while the far - month contracts had declines ranging from - 1% to - 3%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1504.8, up 296.09 points from last week, a 24.5% increase, which is expected to support the recovery of near - month freight rates. The trading of the EC2512 contract became more active as its trading volume and open interest increased [8][12][18] 2. News Review and Analysis - The US suspension of the export control penetration rule for one year is a positive move. The end of the US federal government shutdown has a neutral - to - positive impact, but the IMF predicts a lower GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter due to the shutdown. Different Fed officials have different views on interest rates, with some concerned about high inflation and others calling for rate cuts. China and the US have taken reciprocal measures in trade, which is generally positive [21] 3. Weekly Market Data - The basis of container shipping index (European Line) futures contracts has shrunk, and the spread has widened. The export container freight rate index has rebounded rapidly. Global container shipping capacity is growing, and European Line capacity is recovering. The BDI and BPI have declined due to geopolitical factors. The charter price of Panamax ships is fluctuating at a high level, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar has narrowed [26][32][34] 4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The container shipping index (European Line) futures prices showed mixed performance this week. The main contract EC2602 rose, while far - month contracts declined. The recovery of terminal transportation demand is not solid, and the price increase in November has mostly failed. The Middle East situation has postponed the expectation of Red Sea re - navigation. The eurozone economy is expected to continue to improve. Overall, the trade situation improvement has not yet affected trade, and investors should be cautious [42][43]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The freight index (European Line) futures contracts generally showed an opening increase, followed by a volatile decline, and a slight recovery near the close. Most contracts ended slightly higher, except for EC2604. The EC2510 contract saw a reduction in long and short positions, and trading volume decreased. The market sentiment was relatively calm, with some short - positions taking profits. In early September, the spot freight quotes of some shipping companies on the European Line stopped falling and rebounded, supporting the futures prices. The EC is likely to continue its oscillating trend, and some contracts may recover from low levels [1]. Summary by Related Content EC Risk Management Strategy - For those with existing shipping space but facing full capacity or poor booking volume and worried about falling freight rates, it is recommended to short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1450 - 1550 to lock in profits [1]. - For those aiming to manage costs and concerned about rising freight rates, it is advisable to buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1200 - 1300 to pre - determine booking costs [1]. EC Contract Data - As of August 19, 2025, the EC2508 contract had a base of 91.97 points, a daily decline of 4.40 points, and a weekly decline of 63.51 points. The EC2510 contract had a base of 807.07 points, a daily increase of 0.50 points, and a weekly decline of 19.61 points. Different contracts had various price changes and spreads [3][5]. Freight Quotes - On August 28, Maersk's 20GP total quote for Shanghai - Rotterdam was $1450, up $45 from the previous period, and 40GP was $2450, up $80. In late August, CMA CGM's 20GP quote decreased by $150, and 40GP by $300. In early September, CMA CGM's 20GP quote recovered by $600, and 40GP by $700. ONE's 20GP quote in early September increased by $330 on average, and 40GP by $500 [7]. Global Freight Index - The SCFIS European Line decreased by 2.47% to 2180.17 points; the SCFIS US West Line increased by 2.23% to 1106.29 points. Other indices also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [8]. Port Waiting Time - On August 18, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.493 days, up 0.074 days from the previous day; Shanghai Port was 2.029 days, up 0.476 days. Different ports had different waiting time changes [15]. Ship Speed and Waiting Ships - On August 18, 2025, the speed of 8000 + container ships was 15.98 knots, down 0.04 knots from the previous day. The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchor decreased by 1 to 15 [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, the freight index (Europe line) futures prices showed mixed trends. The main contract EC2508 closed up 0.11%, while the far - month contracts had declines ranging from -1% to -1%. The current price index continued to improve, supporting the futures price of the main contract. The latest SCFIS Europe line settlement freight rate index was 2123.24, up 186.1 points from last week, a 9.6% week - on - week increase. - The US economic data indicated challenges. The 6 - month ADP employment unexpectedly decreased by 33,000, and the service industry employment had the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest rate futures fully priced in the Fed's September rate - cut expectation. - The euro - zone economy showed signs of bottoming out under the support of tariff expectation easing and Germany's fiscal expansion policy. However, the manufacturing industry was still under pressure, with a 2.4% month - on - month drop in industrial output. - There was still uncertainty in the trade war, and the demand expectation for the freight index (Europe line) was weak, with large fluctuations in futures prices. But the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators might drive the futures prices to rise in the short term. Investors were advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - EC main contract closing price: 1896.900, up 2.0; EC second - main contract closing price: 1363.9, down 10.6. - EC2508 - EC2510 spread: +17.40 up; EC2508 - EC2512 spread: 358.20, up 2.70. - EC contract basis: -13.40 down, at 226.34. - EC main contract open interest: down 388, at 35947 [1]. Spot Price - SCFIS (Europe line) (weekly): 2123.24, up 186.10; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1619.19, down 464.27. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1861.51, down 8.08; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1369.34, up 26.88; CCFI (Europe line) (weekly): 1640.72, up 62.12. - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1443.00, up 15.00; Panama Freight Index (daily): 1492.00, up 8.00. - Average charter price (Panamax): 12089.00, down 247.00; average charter price (Capesize): 10261.00, up 338.00 [1]. Industry News - The US military assessment was that Iran's nuclear facilities were destroyed, and its nuclear program was postponed by 1 - 2 years. - China's National Development and Reform Commission arranged over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 - billion - yuan project list for this year was fully issued. - The US 6 - month ADP employment unexpectedly decreased by 33,000, and the service industry employment had the largest decline since the pandemic. The US interest rate futures fully priced in the Fed's September rate - cut expectation. - The US President announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, with Vietnam's exports to the US subject to a 20% tariff and trans - shipped goods subject to a 40% tariff. Vietnam agreed to cancel all taxes on imported US goods [1]. Key Points to Watch - July 4, 14:45, France's May industrial output monthly rate. - July 4, 17:00, Euro - zone May PPI monthly rate [1].

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the State Council Tariff Commission regarding the adjustment of tariffs on imports from the United States has led to a significant increase in orders from American clients for Chinese export companies, indicating a positive shift in trade relations and market confidence [1][2][5]. Group 1: Impact on Export Companies - Many foreign trade companies have reported a resurgence in orders from American clients following the tariff adjustment, with some companies in Guangzhou experiencing a notable increase in export orders to the U.S. and even facing shipping congestion [1][2][5]. - The general manager of Yangjiang Yuzhong Daily Necessities Co., Ltd. stated that U.S. clients have resumed placing orders for the second half of the year, indicating a strong recovery in demand [2]. - Other companies, such as Shenzhen Sidagao Porcelain Art Co., Ltd., have also reported that previously delayed orders are now being reinstated, reflecting a return to normalcy in trade with U.S. clients [2]. Group 2: Shipping and Freight Market Dynamics - The freight market has seen a "peak shipping" situation, with reports of increased shipping rates and a surge in demand for container bookings, particularly on routes to the U.S. [5][6]. - According to the Guangzhou Cross-border E-commerce Industry Association, the order volume for this month has increased by 20% to 40% compared to the previous month, while the average price has decreased by about 5% [5]. - The shipping costs for U.S. routes have begun to rise, with the average price for the West Coast increasing by over 30% and the East Coast by over 20% [5][6]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There is a general sense of optimism among export companies, with many expressing confidence in the recovery of orders and the ability to fulfill them in the near term [2][5]. - The adjustment in tariffs has led to an increase in inquiries from new clients, suggesting potential growth opportunities for exporters [5]. - The shipping industry is currently experiencing a tight market, with expectations that the recovery in U.S. shipping volumes may alleviate some pressure on European shipping routes in the coming months [6].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View - On Tuesday, the freight index (European Line) futures prices mostly declined, with the main contract down 4.24% and far - month contracts down 1 - 4%. The escalation of the Sino - US trade war has dampened foreign trade demand and restricted freight rates. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index rose 7.6% week - on - week. Trump's statements may lead to a decrease in US commodity imports and a subsequent decline in shipping demand. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in March was in the contraction zone, and the German manufacturing slump may pressure the eurozone economy. In the short term, panic and risk - aversion sentiment may dominate the market, increasing the volatility of the freight index (European Line) futures. In the long - term, it depends on global economic resilience and export substitution effects. If China - EU trade volume increases or US tariffs on Europe are better than expected, far - month futures prices may outperform near - month contracts. Investors are advised to be cautious and pay attention to subsequent US policies towards Europe and China - EU foreign trade data [1]. 3. Summary by Category Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1456.800, down 64.5; EC sub - main contract closing price: 1625, down 75.60. - EC2506 - EC2508 spread: - 168.20, up 22.60; EC2506 - EC2510 spread: 164.80, down 46.10. - EC contract basis: + 65.20, up; EC main contract open interest: 38691, down 118 [1]. Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 1508.44, up 106.09; SCFIS (US West Coast Line) (weekly): 1368.41, down 219.43. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1370.58, down 24.10; container ship capacity: 1227.97 (in ten thousand TEUs), unchanged. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1110.94, up 3.66; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1486.14, down 9.31. - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1261.00, down 20.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1273.00, down 35.00. - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 11777.00, up 119.00; average charter price (Cape - size ship): 12059.00, down 218.00 [1]. Industry News - China's financial market has shown resilience after short - term fluctuations due to the US "reciprocal tariff" policy. - The Trump administration may scale back US activities in Africa and close many embassies. - Trump claims that Powell should cut interest rates, and the Fed should do so to benefit the US [1]. Key Data to Watch - France's April manufacturing PMI flash on April 23 at 15:15. - Germany's April manufacturing PMI flash on April 23 at 15:30. - Eurozone's April manufacturing PMI flash on April 23 at 16:00. - UK's April manufacturing PMI flash on April 23 at 16:30. - US April S&P Global manufacturing PMI flash on April 23 at 21:45 [1].