Core Viewpoint - The global freight market is experiencing a complex situation characterized by a "low-level rebound" in freight rates, with major shipping companies announcing rate increases for various international routes starting December 2025, driven by geopolitical conflicts, climate factors, and strategic adjustments by shipping companies [1][2]. Group 1: Rate Increases Announced - Major shipping companies such as MSC, CMA CGM, Maersk, and Hapag-Lloyd have announced significant rate increases for various routes, with MSC raising rates for 20-foot and 40-foot containers to $1860 and $3100 respectively for Northern Europe routes, and CMA CGM setting rates up to $6300 for 40-foot containers from Far East to the Mediterranean and North Africa [2][3]. - The rate increases are not driven by traditional demand but are a result of external disturbances from geopolitical issues and climate change, alongside shipping companies' strategies to adjust capacity and restore profitability [2][4]. Group 2: Supply Chain and Operational Challenges - The ongoing Red Sea crisis and drought-related restrictions in the Panama Canal have led to reduced shipping capacity and efficiency, with some routes experiencing delays of over 10 days [3][4]. - The expectation of tariffs in the U.S. market has prompted some companies to expedite shipments, temporarily increasing demand for shipping capacity [4]. Group 3: Impact on E-commerce and Trade - The rate increases are particularly impactful for the cross-border e-commerce sector, where rising costs are squeezing profit margins, with some routes seeing increases of over 40% in December [5][6]. - The logistics challenges, including port congestion and tight capacity, may lead to delays, stock shortages, and increased customer complaints, further complicating the operational landscape for businesses [5][6]. Group 4: Long-term Implications - If the current trend of rising freight rates continues into 2026, it could significantly affect low-margin industries such as furniture and toys, leading to potential shifts in global supply chains towards countries like Mexico, Vietnam, and Indonesia [6]. - The shipping market may enter a phase of "high freight rate normalization," with sustained high rates likely to increase overall logistics costs, ultimately impacting consumer prices [6].