深圳商报记者 黄磊 近期，全球货运市场呈现复杂态势，运价呈现"低位反弹"特征。一边是持续近3周的整体运价疲软；另 一边则是头部船公司MSC、达飞、赫伯罗特等密集宣布，将于2025年12月上调多条国际航线的运费。 业内人士指出，本轮涨价并非传统意义上的需求拉动，而是在地缘冲突、气候因素与船公司经营策略共 同作用下出现的"淡季涨价"现象。 多家公司宣布上调运价 MSC宣布自2025年12月1日起，将全面上调从远东港口至北欧、地中海、黑海等地区的运费：北欧航线 20尺柜、40尺柜分别上调至1860美元和3100美元；黑海航线则分别提升至2850美元和3900美元。 另一家头部航运企业达飞（CMA CGM）宣布，自2025年12月1日至12月14日，将上调从远东到地中海 和北非的FAK费率，最高每40尺柜6300美元。 马士基方面计划从12月25日起，对从中东与远东至莫桑比克贝拉港的货物征收目的地拥堵费（CFD）； 与此同时，自12月1日起，公司将在罗马尼亚康斯坦察南集装箱码头收取新的"进口检验扫描费"，每箱 25欧元。 赫伯罗特宣布将提高远东和欧洲之间的FAK费率，自2025年12月1日开始生效。这一调整适用于20 ...

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry is experiencing an unusual pricing cycle characterized by "off-season price increases and peak-season promotions," deviating from the traditional pattern of "off-season promotions and peak-season price increases" [1][3][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On September 19, PTA and PX futures prices dropped significantly, with PTA prices falling below the critical support level of 4600 yuan/ton, despite being in the traditional peak season [1] - The average sales rate of polyester factories' polyester filament surged to 186.4% on September 10, with some factories reaching as high as 400%, but prices were unexpectedly lowered just five days later [3][4] - The polyester industry is facing a mismatch in supply and demand, with overproduction during peak seasons and underproduction during off-seasons, leading to price volatility [5][9] Group 2: Factors Behind the Pricing Cycle - External factors such as geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices have driven up raw material costs, prompting polyester companies to raise prices during off-seasons [8] - The structural mismatch in production capacity has been exacerbated by aggressive expansion by some companies, leading to oversupply during peak seasons and tight supply during off-seasons [9][10] - The current market structure has changed, with downstream weaving enterprises becoming more cautious in their purchasing behavior, affecting overall demand [10][11] Group 3: Impacts on the Industry - The pricing anomaly has created significant challenges for downstream weaving enterprises, which are now more hesitant to stock up on raw materials due to the risk of high costs [11][12] - Upstream producers benefit from price increases during off-seasons, while polyester manufacturers struggle with low margins and high inventory levels during peak seasons [14] - The imbalance in profit distribution across the supply chain has led to increased pressure on smaller enterprises, which lack the financial resilience to withstand price fluctuations [14][15] Group 4: Solutions and Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that rebuilding trust between upstream and downstream players is essential to break the current cycle, emphasizing the need for collaboration and communication [16][17] - Addressing structural overcapacity and focusing on value competition rather than price competition are critical for the industry's recovery [17][18] - Expanding into new markets and fostering domestic demand for innovative applications are necessary steps to stabilize the polyester industry and restore healthy pricing cycles [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The polyester industry is experiencing an unusual pricing cycle characterized by "off-season price increases and peak-season promotions," deviating from the traditional pattern of "off-season promotions and peak-season price increases" [1][4]. Group 1: Pricing Dynamics - In September 2025, polyester factories saw an average sales rate of 186.4% for polyester filament, with some factories reaching as high as 400% due to strong promotional policies [1]. - The price of PTA increased by 18% in a single month during the off-season due to maintenance shutdowns of several domestic PTA facilities, leading to a rise in polyester product prices [3]. - The market is witnessing a structural mismatch in capacity, where companies over-expand during peak seasons, resulting in excess supply, while reducing production during off-seasons due to inventory concerns, creating conditions for price increases [3][5]. Group 2: Market Expectations and Demand - The disconnect between market expectations and actual demand is a core reason for the current pricing anomaly, with external factors like geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices pushing up raw material costs [4][5]. - The cautious purchasing behavior of downstream weaving enterprises has led to a situation where they prefer "just-in-time" procurement rather than stockpiling, increasing uncertainty in production plans [7][9]. - The phenomenon of "off-season price increases" reflects a strong demand that exceeds expectations, driven by factors such as "export grabbing" [3][4]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - The frequent price fluctuations disrupt normal production schedules and hinder the establishment of a stable pricing system, leading to a vicious cycle of "wait-and-see—demand—shrinkage—promotion—more waiting" [7][9]. - The profit distribution within the polyester industry is severely imbalanced, with upstream raw material producers benefiting from price increases while polyester manufacturers struggle with low margins [9][10]. - Small and medium-sized enterprises face significant challenges due to their limited ability to withstand price wars and cash flow pressures, exacerbated by the current pricing dynamics [10][11]. Group 4: Solutions and Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that breaking the current pricing cycle requires rebuilding trust between upstream and downstream players, moving from a "zero-sum game" mentality to a collaborative ecosystem [11][12]. - Addressing structural overcapacity on the supply side and actively exploring new market demands on the demand side are crucial for stabilizing the industry [12][13]. - The focus should shift from price competition to value competition, emphasizing technological innovation and optimizing capacity structures to escape reliance on promotions [12][13].