船舶替代燃料

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能源专题报告:碳中和趋势下的船舶替代燃料前景展望
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-25 12:05
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The shipping industry is transitioning from environmental awareness to mandatory compliance, and decarbonization has become a necessity. The IMO's new strategy and other policies are driving the industry towards green alternative fuels [2][11]. - Methanol is leading in commercial applications, while ammonia is considered the most promising long - term solution for ocean shipping. However, both face challenges such as high green production costs and low energy density [3]. - Biofuels offer a short - term transition for existing fleets, while hydrogen and electricity are mainly used in short - distance markets due to infrastructure and energy density limitations [4]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Policy Background of Ship Alternative Fuels - **IMO《2023 年船舶温室气体减排战略》**: In 2023, the IMO replaced the 2018 strategy with a new one, significantly raising the target requirements. By 2050, it aims for net - zero emissions in international shipping, making green methanol and green ammonia priority options [12][13][15]. - **EU ETS**: Since January 1, 2024, the shipping industry has been included. It requires ships to pay for carbon emissions, changing the demand logic for alternative fuels and driving the industry towards compliance [16][17]. - **US《通胀削减法案》**: It provides production tax credits for clean hydrogen and subsidies for low - carbon transportation fuels. It also allocates $3 billion for port infrastructure. However, policy changes under Trump may weaken support [18][19]. - **China's "Dual Carbon" Goal Strategy**: China is promoting the green transformation of the shipping industry from both supply and demand sides. It aims to increase the market share of green - powered ships and build an incentive and infrastructure system [20][21]. 2. Current Situation and Limitations of Mainstream Ship Fuels - **Fossil Fuels**: They still dominate the shipping industry, accounting for over 90% of sales. Although the industry can adapt to some regulations, they cannot meet the net - zero emission requirements [23][29][30]. - **LNG**: It has developed rapidly, with the global fleet expected to nearly double by 2028. But due to methane emissions, it is difficult to meet the net - zero goal [31][32][33]. 3. Future Alternative Fuel Solutions - **Methanol**: It is the fastest - growing alternative fuel in commercialization. It has advantages in storage and infrastructure compatibility but has low energy density and high green production costs [38][41][46]. - **Ammonia**: It offers a zero - carbon solution but faces challenges such as toxicity, low energy density, and harmful emissions [48][49][51]. - **Biofuels (Renewable Diesel)**: HVO can be directly used in existing engines and facilities, reducing emissions immediately. However, raw material supply is a major constraint [53][54][57]. - **Electricity**: Battery - powered ships offer zero - emissions but are limited by low energy density, high costs, and lack of infrastructure, mainly used in short - distance markets [58][60][61]. - **Hydrogen**: It has high energy potential but faces storage difficulties, lack of infrastructure, and immature technology, mainly in the demonstration stage [62][63][67]. 4. Future Development Trends of Ship Alternative Fuels - **Policy and Market - Driven Fuel Pattern**: Regional policies will shape the choice of alternative fuels, leading to the emergence of "green corridors" [71][72]. - **New Shipbuilding Orders**: LNG is still the leading alternative fuel in terms of orders but is a transitional option. Methanol is rising rapidly, especially in container ships. Ammonia orders are few but show industry confidence in long - term use [74][76][77].