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中国船舶:2025Q1业绩符合预期,周期景气上行订单持续兑现-20250516
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-05-16 00:25
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1 2025 met expectations, with a significant year-on-year increase in net profit of 180.99% [1][2] - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing an upward cycle due to factors such as the ship replacement cycle, environmental policies, and tight production capacity [4][5] - The company has a strong order backlog, with a total of 2,169.62 billion yuan in hand for civil ship orders as of 2024 [2] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved an operating revenue of 78,584 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.01%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3,614 million yuan, up 22.21% [1] - For Q1 2025, the company reported an operating revenue of 15,858 million yuan, a 3.85% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1,127 million yuan, reflecting a 180.99% increase [2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was approximately 10.20%, with a net profit margin of 4.91% [3] Business Segmentation - The shipbuilding and marine engineering segment generated revenue of 75,374 million yuan in 2024, up 7.03% year-on-year [1] - The electromechanical equipment segment reported revenue of 1,956 million yuan, a 1.45% increase [1] - The company delivered 93 civil ships in 2024, achieving 721.34 million deadweight tons, exceeding the annual plan by 112.74% [2] Order and Delivery Insights - The company secured new orders worth 1,039 million yuan for civil ships in 2024, along with 20.73 million yuan for repair services [1] - As of Q1 2025, the company’s gross profit margin improved to 12.84%, a year-on-year increase of 5.62 percentage points [3] - The total hand-held civil ship orders amounted to 2,169.62 billion yuan, indicating strong future revenue potential [2] Industry Trends - The shipbuilding industry is witnessing a slowdown in new orders, with a 56% year-on-year decline in new orders from January to April 2025 [4][17] - Despite the slowdown, ship prices are expected to continue rising due to tight supply and inflationary pressures [4][5] - The integration of shipbuilding assets within the group is progressing smoothly, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and competitive positioning [5]
中船防务(600685):点评报告:业绩处于预告中枢水平,2024年归母净利润同比大增685%
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-01 12:09
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, with a year-on-year growth of 685% in 2024, driven by full production tasks and increased investment income from joint ventures [2][3] - The company has a robust order backlog, with a total contract value of approximately 61.6 billion yuan, including 130 new shipbuilding orders [4] - The shipbuilding industry is experiencing an upward cycle due to replacement cycles, environmental policies, and tight capacity, which are expected to drive ship prices higher [6][7] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported operating revenue of 19.402 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.17%, and a net profit of 377 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 684.86% [2][3] - The gross margin and net margin for 2024 were approximately 7.76% and 2.43%, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 1.13 and 1.98 percentage points [5] - The company’s core shipbuilding gross margin improved to 9.33%, with significant increases in the gross margins of container ships and bulk carriers [5] Business Segmentation - Revenue from shipbuilding products reached 16.727 billion yuan, up 26.39% year-on-year, while revenue from steel structure engineering declined by 38.43% [3] - The company secured new orders worth 25 billion yuan in 2024, achieving 165.56% of its annual target [3] - The company delivered 37 ships in 2024, totaling 1.0844 million deadweight tons [3] Order Backlog - The company has a total contract value of approximately 61.6 billion yuan in hand, with shipbuilding orders accounting for about 58.7 billion yuan [4] Profitability Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of 850 million yuan, 1.616 billion yuan, and 2.410 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, indicating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 68% [13][14]