交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-10-10 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：近期建材行业工作方案和沙河地区"煤改气"等反内卷、环保政策利好情绪有所升温， 供应端扰动因素较多；下游深加工订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1156元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1218元/吨，基差为-62元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6282.40万重量箱，较前一周增加5.84%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方运行，20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面偏弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻 ...

内容概要：涂层材料作为国民经济重要的配套工业，广泛应用于建筑、汽车、航空航天、电子等多个行 业，近年来，得益于政策利好以及下游需求的不断增长，我国涂层材料行业发展势头稳健，据统计， 2024年我国涂层材料行业市场规模达4637.1亿元，同比增长2.62%，其中，工业涂层材料占58.90%，未 来，在新能源汽车、显示面板等高端产业自主可控需求驱动下，我国涂层材料企业不断加大研发力度， 随着技术的不断进步，涂层材料将朝着功能多样化、性能高性能化方向发展，从而提升产品附加值，满 足不同应用场景的需求，为我国涂层材料行业带来新的增长空间。 涂层材料分类 二、行业壁垒 涂层材料是典型的技术密集型产业，从理论体系来看，涂层材料开发需要综合运用高分子化学、化学工 程、表面物理、材料力学、光学、电学等多学科知识与技术，涂层材料企业需组建具备多领域知识背 景，研发、设计、生产经验丰富的人才团队以满足持续的研发创新需求，此外，涂层材料的研发和生产 上市企业：松井股份（688157）、东来技术（688129）、康美特（874318.NQ）、三新股份 （873510.NQ）、雅图高新（872924.NQ） 相关企业：宣伟（上海）涂料 ...

玻璃反内卷 20250924 摘要 受天然气价格上涨影响，浮法玻璃企业面临每吨约 100 元的亏损，煤制 气成本也增加。石油焦价格下降虽略有盈利，但整体行业仍亏损，企业 呼吁政府采取措施减少损失。 工信部发布建材行业稳增长方案，严格控制水泥和玻璃产能，严禁新增 平板玻璃产能，新建或改建项目需制定产能置换方案，淘汰落后产能， 此政策提振市场情绪，推动玻璃价格上涨。 光伏玻璃产能同比下降 16%，近期价格上涨。未来价格走势取决于供应 减少和需求增加，需求端受房屋新开工面积上涨 12.3%和新能源汽车发 展带动，短期内（2025 年 10 月后至春节前）用量预计上涨，整体或上 涨 200 元/吨。 建筑用浮法玻璃市场占比下降至 50%左右，但汽车、家电等领域需求增 长。全国房屋新开工面积上涨 12.3%及新能源汽车发展对建筑用浮法玻 璃需求产生积极影响。 房地产新增量不多，市场启动尚未完全实现，情绪带动和建材稳增长政 策对浮法玻璃需求的影响持续性有待观察。2025 年 8 月底浮法玻璃总 产能 12.4 亿重量箱，实际产量 15.8 万吨，同比下降 4.5%，库存周期 26-27 天，供需失衡，行业亏损严重。 Q& ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Fed's internal divergence increases policy uncertainty, weakening the US dollar's credit. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and political unrest in Europe boost safe - haven buying. Central bank gold purchases offer long - term support, and the decline of the US dollar index is beneficial for gold prices. Domestic gold prices are relatively stronger than international ones [3]. - **Copper**: After the Fed's interest - rate decision, the short - term impact of macro factors on copper prices will decrease. Copper shows certain resilience and may continue to fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton. Supply is tight in the short term, and demand remains stable [17]. - **Aluminum**: The core factors for aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and peak - season fundamentals. After the September interest - rate cut, the macro - drive pauses, and the focus of Shanghai aluminum trading may shift to fundamentals. After a short - term price correction, Shanghai aluminum may fluctuate strongly [37]. - **Zinc**: The supply is in an oversupply state. The market's expectation for the "Golden September and Silver October" is average. The inventory shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate [65]. - **Nickel**: For nickel ore, there are concerns about supply stability. The prices of MHP and nickel salts may continue to be strong. Nickel - iron prices are firm, and stainless - steel prices are in a stalemate [80]. - **Tin**: After the Fed's interest - rate decision, the impact of macro factors on tin prices decreases. In the short - term supply - tight situation, tin prices may mainly fluctuate [95]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Before the National Day holiday, lithium carbonate futures prices may fluctuate and consolidate [107]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: Near the National Day holiday, both long and short sides in the technical aspect are closing positions. The fundamentals have no significant changes, and market sentiment is average [116]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Movement**: The report presents the price trends of SHFE gold and silver futures, COMEX gold and silver ratios, and the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, US Treasury real interest rates, etc. [4][9][12] - **Inventory**: It shows the inventory data of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver [16]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME copper are provided. The main contract of Shanghai copper is 79,960 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.05% [18]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various copper spot prices are given. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 80,045 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 35 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.04% [23]. - **Import and Processing**: The copper import profit and loss is - 108.53 yuan per ton, with a daily change of - 29.82 yuan and a daily change rate of 37.89%. The copper concentrate TC is - 40.65 US dollars per ton [28]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Inventory**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 27,419 tons, a daily decrease of 308 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.11%. LME copper inventory is 144,975 tons, a daily decrease of 400 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.28% [33][35]. Aluminum - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum futures (main contract, continuous contracts), LME aluminum, and alumina futures are provided. For example, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum is 20,705 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.1% [40]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various aluminum spot prices are given. For example, the price of East China aluminum is 20,680 yuan per ton, with no daily change [52]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts total 67,736 tons, a daily decrease of 1,224 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.77%. LME aluminum inventory is 517,150 tons, a daily increase of 3,300 tons and a daily increase rate of 0.64% [61]. Zinc - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME zinc are provided. The main contract of Shanghai zinc is 21,860 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.07% [66]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc spot prices are given. For example, the average price of SMM 0 zinc is 21,820 yuan per ton, a daily decrease of 60 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.27% [71]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts total 57,357 tons, a daily increase of 744 tons and a daily increase rate of 1.31%. LME zinc inventory is 44,400 tons, a daily decrease of 1,375 tons and a daily decrease rate of 3% [76]. Nickel - **Futures Data**: The latest values,环比 differences, and环比 of Shanghai nickel futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME nickel are provided. The main contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,450 yuan per ton, with a环比 increase of 720 yuan and a环比 increase rate of 1% [81]. - **Downstream Situation**: Nickel - iron prices are firm, and stainless - steel prices are in a stalemate. The market is in a wait - and - see state before the holiday [80]. Tin - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures (main contract, continuous contracts) and LME tin are provided. The main contract of Shanghai tin is 271,650 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 1,770 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.66% [96]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of tin spot prices are given. For example, the price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 271,400 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 700 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.26% [101]. - **Inventory**: The total tin warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 6,342 tons, a daily decrease of 76 tons and a daily decrease rate of 1.18%. LME tin inventory is 2,575 tons, a daily decrease of 5 tons and a daily decrease rate of 0.19% [103]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures (main contract, continuous contracts) are provided. The main contract of lithium carbonate futures closes at 72,880 yuan per ton, with a daily decrease of 780 yuan and a weekly increase of 200 yuan [108]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, daily change rates, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of lithium spot prices are given. For example, the average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 73,850 yuan per ton, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 700 yuan [110]. - **Inventory**: The warehouse receipts of Guangzhou Futures Exchange are 39,749, with a daily increase of 300 and a daily increase rate of 0.76% [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot prices are provided. For example, the price of East China 553 industrial silicon is 9,500 yuan per ton, with no daily change [117]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures (main contract, continuous contracts) are given. The main contract of industrial silicon is 9,020 yuan per ton, with a daily increase of 95 yuan and a daily increase rate of 1.06% [118].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that while the pesticide industry is currently experiencing weak downstream customer demand and a destocking phase, long-term growth drivers such as global food security demand, environmental policies promoting efficient low-toxicity pesticides, and the transfer of raw material production capacity to the Asia-Pacific region remain unchanged [1] - Domestic policies are regulating market order through the "Zhengfeng Zhivol" initiative, promoting the industry's development towards high quality, despite short-term destocking pressures [1] - The company maintains that its core competitiveness, including advantages in the entire industry chain and technology, has not been significantly impacted, and the release of capacity from the 8,500-ton ketone project at the Tongling base has achieved self-sufficiency in key raw materials with expected economic efficiency [1] Group 2 - The company believes that although the industry is undergoing a short-term adjustment, the overall development trend aligns with policy direction [1]

Summary of Conference Call for China Merchants Energy Shipping Company Industry Overview - The shipping industry is experiencing increased confidence among shipowners due to OPEC's exit from production cuts, leading to higher freight rates as shippers anticipate potential shortages [2][3][7] - The current supply-demand structure in the shipping market remains stable, with no significant gaps in cargo volume or vessel availability noted as of mid-September [4] - The market is expected to see a more pronounced imbalance in supply and demand by late September [4] Company Performance - China Merchants Energy Shipping Company reported that its oil and bulk shipping segments outperformed market indices by over 10% in the first half of 2025, while the container shipping segment met expectations [2][8] - The LNG segment remained stable, and the roll-on/roll-off segment maintained its gross profit levels through partnerships [2][8] - The company plans to receive 17 new vessels in 2025, primarily focusing on LNG and bulk carriers, which will significantly increase effective capacity [2][17] Market Trends and Expectations - The average freight rates for Very Large Ore Carriers (VLOC) are expected to remain high in the upcoming quarters, although not continuously increasing [2][9] - The dry bulk market is anticipated to perform well in Q4 2025, supported by stable iron ore trade volumes and continued growth in bauxite shipments [12][13] - The company expects a favorable outlook for the container shipping business due to shifts in supply chains towards Southeast Asia and increased local consumption [18][19] Regulatory and Environmental Factors - Stricter environmental regulations are raising operational costs and entry barriers in the shipping industry, benefiting larger shipping companies and promoting industry consolidation [2][22] - The implementation of low-sulfur fuel policies has not caused significant disruptions, contrary to initial market fears, and has led to increased installations of scrubbers [24] Challenges and Risks - The return of gray market vessels to compliance is unlikely due to their age and operational history, which limits competition with mainstream fleets [10][14] - The slow clearance of old vessels is primarily due to favorable market conditions, with potential exits occurring only during industry downturns or cash flow crises [11] - The roll-on/roll-off segment faces challenges from trade disputes and market fluctuations, but new vessel deliveries are expected to enhance performance [21] Strategic Initiatives - The company is maintaining its strategic investment in Antong Holdings, with plans to continue benefiting from this investment in the coming years [20] - The focus on new technologies and alternative fuels, such as LNG and methanol, is part of the company's strategy to adapt to changing market conditions and regulatory requirements [25] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, market trends, regulatory impacts, and strategic initiatives.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that tax system adjustments have impacted short-term performance but do not alter the long-term growth outlook for the company [5][7] - The shipping market is experiencing a recovery in demand, although short-term performance is affected by tax changes and international conflicts [7] - The company is expected to benefit from environmental policies and a potential interest rate cut in the U.S., which may stimulate financing willingness among shipowners [7] Financial Summary - The company achieved revenue of HKD 20.18 billion in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [7] - Operating profit for the same period was HKD 11.67 billion, up 5.61% year-on-year [7] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 11.06 billion, a decrease of 16.7% year-on-year, primarily due to changes in tax calculation and reduced rental income from joint ventures [7] - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are HKD 44.77 billion, HKD 48.96 billion, and HKD 54.39 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profit estimates of HKD 21.44 billion, HKD 24.16 billion, and HKD 27.20 billion [7][8] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 5.58, 4.94, and 4.39, respectively, indicating favorable valuation metrics [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the increasing internal divisions within Europe regarding environmental policies, particularly in light of recent extreme weather events and the economic challenges faced by the region. The debate over air conditioning in France exemplifies the broader conflict between economic survival and environmental ideals [1][2][9]. Group 1: Environmental Policy Divisions - The "air conditioning war" in France reflects a growing divide in environmental policy, with right-wing parties advocating for more practical solutions to heat waves, while left-wing factions warn against exacerbating environmental crises [2][3]. - The "Duplon Law" has intensified conflicts among French political factions, with significant protests from farmers against EU environmental policies that threaten their livelihoods [3][4]. - The rise of far-right parties in the EU, such as the "European Patriots," indicates a shift away from traditional support for green agendas, focusing instead on economic concerns [4][5]. Group 2: Economic Pressures and Environmental Goals - Economic downturns and high inflation have led to a reevaluation of the EU's green agenda, with many parties now prioritizing economic stability over environmental initiatives [1][10]. - The EU's commitment to ambitious climate goals, such as reducing carbon emissions by 55% by 2030, faces increasing political resistance, particularly from right-wing factions [4][6]. - The shift in public priorities towards economic security and international conflicts has diminished the emphasis on climate issues, reflecting a broader trend of environmental policy regression in the EU [10][11]. Group 3: Climate Change Impact - Extreme weather events, including wildfires and floods, have significantly affected Europe, with millions impacted and substantial carbon emissions released [11][12]. - The EU's preparedness for climate change adaptation has been criticized, indicating a lack of effective strategies to address the challenges posed by climate change [12].

Core Viewpoint - Jiujiang Shanshui Technology Co., Ltd. reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by favorable market conditions in the fine chemical sector, particularly in the dye industry [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 305 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.08% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 47.77 million yuan [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The fine chemical sector outperformed the basic chemical sector, with the dye industry being a highlight due to improved domestic consumption and stricter environmental regulations [2]. - Prices for dye intermediates, such as 6-nitro compounds, surged due to supply-side constraints from environmental policies and seasonal demand [2]. Group 3: Industry Characteristics - The dye intermediate industry exhibits strong stability once integrated into the downstream supply chain, with high switching costs for customers due to the specific quality requirements of dye products [3]. - The company has established long-term stable partnerships with several well-known dye enterprises, maintaining a leading market share in its segment [3]. Group 4: R&D Investment - Research and development investment increased by 42.97% year-on-year, focusing on upgrading existing products and developing high-value-added products [4]. - The company has developed a core technology system that integrates product research, process development, and equipment modification, positioning it at the forefront of the industry [4]. Group 5: Product Quality and Production Efficiency - The company’s 6-nitro products have significant quality advantages, utilizing a continuous nitration process that reduces waste and lowers environmental costs [5]. - The gross margin for 6-nitro products was 45.69%, reflecting an increase compared to the previous year [5]. - The company is actively promoting the capacity release of chlorinated pyridine series products, with a gross margin of 26.33% for 2,3-dichloropyridine, showing substantial growth [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Hefeng Group (02320.HK) reported a significant decline in revenue for the first half of 2025, with earnings of HKD 69.1 million, representing a year-on-year decrease of 35.9% due to reduced customer orders and intense competition [1] - The company recorded a loss of HKD 38.4 million for the first half of 2025, compared to a loss of HKD 43.7 million in the same period of 2024, indicating a slight improvement in financial performance despite ongoing challenges [1] - The board of directors has decided not to recommend the payment of an interim dividend for the six months ending June 30, 2025, consistent with the previous year where no dividend was paid [1] Group 2 - The corrugated packaging industry is facing significant pressure due to the global economic downturn and fierce market competition, which has contributed to the decline in revenue for the company [1] - Since October 2021, the company's upstream corrugated paper business has been temporarily suspended, impacting overall operations [1] - The company is currently coordinating with local government authorities to handle the annual inspection of coal-fired boiler permits and is working on transitioning to gas-fired boilers in compliance with environmental policies, with plans to resume production after completing the necessary coordination [1] - To ensure stable supply for its downstream corrugated packaging business, the company has been sourcing corrugated paper from third-party suppliers since 2022, following the cessation of its upstream business revenue [1]