Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The old - crop peanuts are supported by the limited remaining supply at the grassroots level and the several - month gap before the large - scale listing of new - crop peanuts. The new - crop peanuts are expected to be weak due to the continued expansion of the sowing area and the reduction in planting costs. In the absence of obvious abnormal weather in the producing areas, the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness in the futures market will continue. The price fluctuation range of peanuts in the second half of 2025 is expected to be 7,800 - 8,700 yuan/ton, with the core range being 8,000 - 8,600 yuan/ton. Phased speculation may be the time to short. Strategies such as a 10 - 11 calendar spread long or shorting contracts after November on rallies are recommended [4][43][44]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 2025 H1 Peanut Price Trend Review - In H1 2025, peanut futures oscillated upward. Compared with the beginning of the year, the peanut futures index price increased. Compared with the three major oils, the peanut price had a strong correlation with the overall oil trend but was stronger. From the beginning of the year to June, the price indices of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 0.8% and decreased by 4.1% respectively, while the peanut price index increased by 2.76%. This was mainly because peanuts were less affected by the macro - environment, the sales rhythm at the grassroots level was not slow, and the import volume of peanuts decreased, so the supply - demand was not in a loose pattern [8]. - **First stage (January - mid - March 2025)**: The reduction in grassroots supply and the procurement by oil mills led to an oscillatory increase in peanut prices. When the peanut price fell to near the planting cost in the Northeast, the grassroots people and traders were reluctant to sell at low prices, reducing the market supply. Coupled with the pre - holiday stockpiling by oil mills and the low inventory of downstream sectors after the holiday, the phased supply - demand mismatch pushed up the price. The late opening of Senegal's peanut export also exacerbated the supply shortage [10]. - **Second stage (mid - March - May 2025)**: The price reduction procurement by oil mills and the expansion of the spring peanut planting area led to a decline in peanut prices. As the temperature in the producing areas rose, farmers needed to sell, increasing the supply. Oil mills reduced procurement prices or even stopped purchasing due to weak profit margins, and the consumption of commercial peanuts was sluggish. The increase in the spring peanut planting area and the opening of Senegal's peanut export also weakened market expectations [10]. - **Third stage (May 2025)**: The rigid demand for restocking in the market, the low supply at the grassroots level, and the drought in the producing areas led to an increase in peanut prices. Farmers had limited remaining peanuts, and most of the goods were concentrated in the hands of a few traders who were reluctant to sell at low prices due to high inventory costs. The high - temperature drought in North China also increased market concerns about the new - crop supply [11]. - **Fourth stage (June 2025 - present)**: The cooling of the grassroots spot market, the end of oil mill procurement, and the improvement of the weather in North China led to a decline in peanut prices. After the rapid increase in the spot price, some traders were more willing to sell for profit, while the terminal demand remained weak. The procurement volume of oil mills decreased, and the expected increase in imports also increased the supply expectation [11][12]. 3.2 2025 H2 Peanut Futures Outlook 3.2.1 Neutral Grassroots Supply, Support at Lower Price Levels - **2024/25 peanut planting area and output**: In 2024, the peanut planting area and output continued to increase. The national new - crop peanut planting area increased by about 14%, with varying degrees of expansion in major producing areas. Due to unfavorable climate conditions, the proportion of oil - grade peanuts increased, and the proportion of commercial peanuts decreased. The overall peanut kernel output increased slightly by about 1.3% [13]. - **Remaining supply and price support**: The remaining supply at the grassroots level may decrease year - on - year, providing support for the price of old - crop peanuts. Although the supply of peanuts in the 2024/25 season increased slightly, the remaining supply at the grassroots level was less than that of last year. As of the end of May, the national peanut kernel remaining supply was 122 tons (14.6%), a year - on - year decrease of 13 tons. The current trade in the producing areas is mainly based on inventory, and there is no concentrated selling pressure. Before the cold - storage peanuts are released, the domestic peanut price is expected to be supported. From the perspective of futures valuation, the downward space for the price of the October contract is limited [15]. - **Import situation**: The import rhythm of peanuts has changed. Affected by the civil war in Sudan and the export ban in Senegal, the arrival of imported peanuts was delayed. Due to the high international peanut price, the expected increase in peanut imports is limited, and the cumulative import of peanuts in the 24/25 season is expected to decline year - on - year. However, the increase in peanut oil imports may make the total import volume of peanut - derived oil + peanut oil decrease slightly or remain unchanged. As of April 2025, the total import volume of peanut - derived oil + peanut oil in the 24/25 season was about 25.67 tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5 tons [18]. 3.2.2 Slight Improvement in Downstream Edible Demand, Weak Oil - Meal Consumption - **Edible demand**: The low - price stimulation led to a year - on - year improvement in the consumption of food - grade peanuts. The low price of peanuts in the 2024/25 season stimulated downstream food consumption. Since October 2024, the weekly sales volume of peanuts in some large - scale wholesale markets in China increased by 2% year - on - year. However, the rapid increase in the price since June is expected to suppress the consumption of peanut food factories and downstream consumers [23]. - **Oil - meal consumption**: The procurement by oil mills is coming to an end, and the downstream consumption is weak. After April, the procurement and crushing volume of oil mills decreased significantly year - on - year due to weak downstream consumption. Although the theoretical profit margin of oil mills was not at an extremely low level, the crushing volume was significantly lower, and the inventory of peanut oil and peanut meal was high, indicating weak consumption [27]. 3.2.3 New - Crop Planting Area Expected to Increase, Pay Attention to Growing - Season Weather - **Sowing area prediction**: The sowing area of peanuts in the 25/26 season is expected to continue to increase, and the land rent in the Northeast has decreased. The increase in the peanut planting area is mainly due to the relatively high planting income compared with other crops. According to statistics, the sowing area in Liaoning increased by 0.5%, that in Jilin increased by 1.34% year - on - year, and that in Henan increased by more than 5% [38]. - **Weather impact**: The futures market has entered the weather - sensitive period. Although recent rainfall has reduced the market's concern about the drought in North China, the drought has not been completely alleviated. The peanut sowing after June 20 may affect subsequent growth, and July is a critical period for peanut growth. Any abnormal weather will cause the futures price to fluctuate. After the emergence of wheat - stubble peanuts, the market will further evaluate the planting area, and the expected difference will also drive the market [39].