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油料日报:花生上市节奏不一,区域价差扩大-20251010
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 06:03
油料日报 | 2025-10-10 花生上市节奏不一,区域价差扩大 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面,昨日收盘豆一2511合约3975.00元/吨,较前日变化+48.00元/吨,幅度+1.22%。现货方面,食用豆现货基 差A11+245,较前日变化-48,幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总:东北地区国庆期间新粮逐步增量,40左右蛋白毛粮收购价1.9元/斤,41蛋白1.95元/斤,低蛋白价格 1.8-1.85元/斤,据反映因天气影响今年蛋白含量偏低,但整体产量预计影响不大,单产或在350-400斤/亩区间,目 前下游需求表现一般,粮贸企业收购谨慎,优质资源较为抢手,普通豆价格表现一般。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一 等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.11元/斤,较昨日平;黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装 车报价2.10元/斤,较昨日平;黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.07元/斤,较昨日 平;黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤,较昨日平;黑龙江黑河嫩江市 场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.19元/斤,较昨日平;黑龙江绥化海伦市 ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20251010
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:20
观点与策略 | 棕榈油:B50路测提前,品种间偏强运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油:美豆震荡运行,豆油难打开新高度 | 2 | | 豆粕:震荡 | 4 | | 豆一:震荡 | 4 | | 玉米:关注新粮上市 | 6 | | 白糖:震荡上行 | 7 | | 棉花:新疆籽棉成交价格企稳 | 9 | | 鸡蛋:现货弱势运行 | 11 | | 生猪:现货底部未现,近月升水偏大 | 12 | | 花生:供应压力仍存 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 10 日 棕榈油:B50 路测提前,品种间偏强运行 豆油:美豆震荡运行,豆油难打开新高度 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘) 9,570 | 涨跌幅 3.71% | 收盘价 (夜盘) 9,596 | 涨跌幅 0.27% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主 ...
中原期货晨会纪要-20251010
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:02
中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第(183)期 发布日期:2025-10-10 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 1 公司官方微信 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/10/10 | 2025/10/9 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,171.50 | 1,164.00 | 7.50 | 0.644 | | | 焦炭 | 1,668.00 | 1,654.00 | 14.0 | 0.846 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,435.00 | 15,415.00 | 20.0 | 0.130 | | | 20号胶 | 12,485.00 | 12,465.00 | 20.0 | 0.16.0 | | | 塑料 | 7,047.00 | 7,077.00 | -30.0 | -0.424 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,73 ...
中原期货晨会纪要-20251009
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 00:55
中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2025 第(182)期 发布日期:2025-10-09 | 中原期货研究咨询部 0371-58620081 | | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | 公司官方微信 | 1 公司官方微信 中原期货研究咨询部 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/10/9 | 2025/10/8 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 1,126.00 | 1,126.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 焦炭 | 1,623.00 | 1.623.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 天然橡胶 | 15,030.00 | 15,030.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 20号胶 | 12,100.00 | 12,100.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 塑料 | 7,153.00 | 7,153.00 | 0 | 0 | | | 聚丙烯PP | 6,852.00 | 6,852.00 | 0 | 0 | | | (PTA) | 4,594.00 | 4, ...
郑商所金融支农再升级,“保险+期货”十年深耕,为乡村振兴注活水、添动能
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-09-30 07:51
秋分时节,谷穗金黄。 在第八个"中国农民丰收节"之际,"保险+期货"这一金融支农创新模式也迎来了落地十周年。 作为国务院首批期货市场试点单位,郑州商品交易所(下称"郑商所")已连续十年开展"保险+期货"。 十年间,郑商所坚守为农初心,持续迭代项目方案、扩大保障半径——累计支持试点250个,覆盖16个 省(区、市),截至2024年末已惠及近76万农户,为苹果、红枣、花生、白糖、棉花、油菜六大特色品 种系上"价格安全带"。 从"试点萌芽"到"全域铺开",郑商所立足农户需求、发挥期货价格发现与风险对冲功能,破解了"靠天 吃饭""丰年不丰收"的难题。未来将继续护航农民稳收增收,绘就金融服务乡村振兴的生动图景。 白糖期货"打头阵",稳价保收"蔗里无忧" 白糖,是郑商所首批"保险+期货"项目的品种之一。 2016年"保险+期货"首次写入中央一号文件,郑商所当年即启动6个棉花与白糖试点项目,其中在广西 武鸣县、扶绥县、武宣县支持开展了首批白糖"保险+期货"项目试点,之后从未间断。期间,郑商所持 续结合试点成效与品种上市进展,不断探索优化,截至目前已连续10年在广西开展糖料蔗"保险+期 货"项目。 在"保险+期货"模式的护航 ...
大豆市场行情暂稳,盘面震荡调整
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 05:12
大豆市场行情暂稳,盘面震荡调整 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面,昨日收盘豆一2511合约3938.00元/吨,较前日变化+3.00元/吨,幅度+0.08%。现货方面,食用豆现货基 差A11+282,较前日变化-3,幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总:黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.11元/斤,较昨日平;黑龙江双鸭山宝 清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.10元/斤,较昨日平;黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋 白中粒塔粮装车报价2.07元/斤,较昨日平;黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22 元/斤,较昨日平;黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.19元/斤,较昨日平;黑龙江绥 化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤,较昨日平。 油料日报 | 2025-09-30 昨日豆一期货价格震荡运行,国内大豆陆续上市,东北产区供应宽松,价格承压走弱,农户惜售,贸易商收购积 极性清淡,市场成交一般。 策略 中性 风险 无 花生观点 市场分析 期货方面,昨日收盘花生2511合约7822.00元/吨,较前日变化 ...
油料陆续上市,盘面压力逐步增大
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 09:34
油料周报 | 2025-09-28 价格行情 期货方面,本周豆一主力合约2511收盘价3935元/吨,环比上涨31元,涨幅0.8%。现货方面,巴彦地区食用豆现 货基差A11+285,较上周下降31;宝清地区食用豆基差A11+265,较上周下降31;富锦地区食用豆现货基差 A11+205,较上周下降31;尚志地区食用豆现货基差A11+265,较上周下降31。 大豆供需 到港预估:Mysteel农产品根据发船数据对大豆月度到港预估,2025年9月巴西大豆对中国到港859万吨,阿根廷 大豆对中国到港155万吨,美国大豆对中国到港为0万吨,共计1014万吨。东北新季大豆零星上市,低蛋白为主, 因阴雨天气影响目前收购量不大,预计大规模上市在月底,且上周五国储竞拍全部流拍,本周国储暂停竞拍投放 陈粮,目前供应增量压力暂不明显。下游企业当前主要以消耗前期库存为主,部分库存少的企业随用随买,市场 多等待新豆集中上市,观望主流新豆价格,当前终端需求释放不足。 市场分析 油料陆续上市,盘面压力逐步增大 大豆市场分析 市场要闻与重要数据 到港预估:Mysteel农产品根据发船数据对大豆月度到港预估,2025年9月巴西大豆对中国到港 ...
油料日报:豆一供需逻辑改善,花生新米晾晒影响供应-20250926
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:13
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][7] Core Viewpoints - The soybean futures market rose slightly due to the phased improvement of supply - demand logic. The pressure on the supply side has been partially digested, and the demand side shows marginal improvement [3] - The peanut futures market closed slightly higher. The supply has no obvious increase, and the price is supported by potential yield decline in some areas and the need for new peanuts to be dried [5][6] Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract was 3929.00 yuan/ton, up 22.00 yuan/ton (+0.56%) from the previous day. The spot basis of edible soybeans was A11 + 291, down 22 (-32.14%) from the previous day [1] Market Information - New - season soybeans in Northeast China are gradually on the market, with the purchase price of rough grains between 1.8 - 2 yuan/jin. Due to climate impact, the protein content has declined, and high - protein sources have firm prices. The purchase work of enterprises is hindered by rain, and downstream enterprises purchase on demand [2] Price Movement Reasons - The slight increase in soybean futures was driven by the phased improvement of supply - demand logic. The pressure on the supply side has been partially digested, and the demand side shows marginal improvement [3] Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract was 7778.00 yuan/ton, up 16.00 yuan/ton (+0.21%) from the previous day. The average spot price of peanuts was 8460.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton (+0.24%) from the previous day, and the spot basis was PK11 + 522.00, up 84.00 (+19.18%) from the previous day [4] Market Information - The average price of general peanuts in the national market was 4.22 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin. Different regions have different price ranges. Oil mills in Shandong and Henan have different purchase prices and are cautious in purchasing [4] Price Movement Reasons - The narrow - range increase in peanut futures was due to the lack of obvious increase in supply. The potential yield decline in some areas in Henan supported the price. New peanuts need time to dry, and traders purchase as needed [5][6] Strategies - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [4] - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [7]
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20250926
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 01:30
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: Short-term rebound height is limited [2] - Soybean oil: US soybeans are in a weak oscillation, and the upward space for soybean oil is difficult to open [2] - Soybean meal: Argentina resumes export tariffs, with a rebound and oscillation [2] - Soybean: Rebound and oscillation [2] - Corn: Pay attention to the new grain listing [2] - Sugar: Range oscillation [2] - Cotton: Pay attention to the price of seed cotton [2] - Eggs: Wait for the verification of the Double Festivals [2] - Live pigs: The spot market fails to boom in the peak season, maintain the shorting idea [2] - Peanuts: Oscillatory operation [2] Summary by Directory Palm Oil - **Production Data**: Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 - 20, 2025, is estimated to have decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month [5] - **Export Data**: From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 12.9% (ITS) and 11.3% (AmSpec) compared to the same period last month [6][10] - **Market Performance**: The palm oil main contract had a day - session closing price of 9,222 yuan/ton with a 1.05% increase and a night - session closing price of 9,258 yuan/ton with a 0.39% increase [7] Soybean Oil - **USDA Forecast**: Analysts' average forecast for US soybean inventory on September 1, 2025, is 3.23 billion bushels, a 5.6% decline from the previous year [10] - **Export Sales**: As of September 18, 2025, US soybean export sales totaled a net increase of 72.45 tons, meeting expectations [11] - **Market Performance**: The soybean oil main contract had a day - session closing price of 8,192 yuan/ton with a 1.14% increase and a night - session closing price of 8,198 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase [7] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Market News**: Argentina resumed export tariffs, causing CBOT soybeans to rise slightly, but US soybean bumper harvest and weak export sales restricted the upward trend [15][17] - **Export Sales**: As of September 18, 2025, US soybean meal export sales totaled a net increase of 22.62 tons, meeting expectations [11] - **Market Performance**: DCE soybean meal 2601 had a day - session closing price of 2967 yuan/ton with a 1.54% increase and a night - session closing price of 2956 yuan/ton with a 0.17% decrease [15] Corn - **Market Price**: The northern corn collection port price is 2240 - 2270 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangdong Shekou is 2400 - 2420 yuan/ton [19] - **Market Performance**: The C2511 contract had a day - session closing price of 2,165 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase and a night - session closing price of 2,171 yuan/ton with a 0.28% increase [18] Sugar - **Production Data**: Conab lowered Brazil's sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season to 44.5 million tons [23] - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 23 tons in the 25/26 season [25] - **Market Performance**: The futures main contract price was 5485 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [23] Cotton - **Domestic Market**: Cotton spot trading is sluggish, and the seed cotton purchase price is temporarily stable [29] - **US Market**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly, and the weekly export sales data was poor [30] - **Market Performance**: The CF2601 contract had a day - session closing price of 13,530 yuan/ton with a 0.18% decrease and a night - session closing price of 13490 yuan/ton with a 0.30% decrease [28] Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg 2510 contract had a closing price of 2,981 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.78% increase [34] Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The Henan spot price was 12580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan [37] - **Trend**: Maintain the shorting idea due to the weak peak - season spot market [2][38] Peanuts - **Spot Market**: The prices in most regions are stable, and the listing time of wheat - stubble peanuts is postponed [41] - **Market Performance**: The PK510 contract had a closing price of 7,770 yuan/ton with a 0.33% decrease [40]
油料日报:花生需求平淡,价格持续震荡-20250925
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 05:37
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The demand for peanuts is weak, and prices are continuously fluctuating. The new - season soybeans in major producing areas are gradually coming onto the market, with overall good supply and price pressure [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary of Soybean - Related Content Market Analysis - In the futures market, the closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract yesterday was 3907.00 yuan/ton, a change of +29.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.75%. In the spot market, the basis of edible soybeans was A11 + 313, a change of - 29 from the previous day, a decrease of 32.14% [1] - New - season soybeans in Northeast China are gradually coming onto the market, with the purchase price of raw grains between 1.8 - 2 yuan/jin. Due to climate impact this year, the protein content has declined, and the prices of high - protein sources are firm. In the south, Jiangsu large - white - skinned soybeans have recently come onto the market, with raw grain prices of 2.7 - 2.9 yuan/jin and clean grain prices of 3 - 3.15 yuan/jin. Yesterday, the soybean futures price fluctuated. The purchase price in the Northeast is weak, while the price in the South is stable. Overall supply is good, and prices are under pressure [1][2] Group 4: Summary of Peanut - Related Content Market Analysis - In the futures market, the closing price of the peanut 2511 contract yesterday was 7762.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 6.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.08%. In the spot market, the average peanut price was 8440.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.12%. The basis was PK11 + 438.00, a change of +6.00 from the previous day, an increase of +1.39% [3] - The average price of national peanut general rice is 4.22 yuan/jin, basically stable. Shandong oil mills' contract purchase price for general rice is 8400 yuan/ton, and Henan oil mills' is 7800 yuan/ton. New peanut - producing areas are increasing, but the overall supply is still small. With the approaching of the Double Festival, downstream stocking demand is still weak, and oil mills' contract purchase prices are stable with limited purchases [3]