油料日报 | 2026-03-03 豆一价强需求温和，花生供需僵持未改 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2605合约4684.00元/吨，较前日变化-24.00元/吨，幅度-0.51%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A05-44，较前日变化+24，幅度32.14%。 中性 风险 无 花生观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘花生2605合约7934.00元/吨，较前日变化+44.00元/吨，幅度+0.56%。现货方面，花生现货均价 9133.00元/吨，环比变化+1051.00元/吨，幅度+13.00%，现货基差PK05-1134.00，环比变化-44.00，幅度+4.04%。 市场资讯汇总：全国花生市场通货米均价8082元/斤，基本稳定，部分产区涨跌互现，其中，河南麦茬白沙通货米 好货3.5-3.9元/斤不等、8筛精米4.3-4.4元/斤，豫、鲁、冀大花生通货米3.4-4.5元/斤，辽宁、吉林白沙通货米4.65-4.8 元/斤、8筛精米5.1-5.2元/斤，花育23通货米4.3-4.4元/斤，以质论价。全国油厂油料米合同采购均价7400元/吨、稳 定，山东均价7350元/吨，稳定，全国各油厂报价6800- ...

油料日报 | 2026-02-27 豆一需看补库，花生延续震荡 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2605合约4702.00元/吨，较前日变化+23.00元/吨，幅度+0.49%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A05-102，较前日变化-23，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北市场今日大豆价格涨20元/吨，主因期货上涨，叠加市场预期下游终端存在节后补库预期，故 价格上调。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.30元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清 市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.25元/斤，较昨日涨0.01元/斤；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋 白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.28元/斤，较昨日涨0.03元/斤；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒 塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.37元/斤，较 昨日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤，较昨日平。 昨日豆一期货盘面震荡上行。期货市场看涨情绪依然高涨，现货价格随之攀升，但实际采购与成交并未显著回暖。 接下 ...

中原期货研究咨询部 晨会纪要 2026 第（34）期 发布日期：2026-02-27 | 中原期货研究咨询部 | 0371-58620081 | | --- | --- | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 公司官方微信 1 2、央行发布《关于银行业金融机构人民币跨境同业融资业务有关事宜的通知》，支持境内银行 顺应市场需求，按照依法合规、风险可控的原则开展人民币跨境同业融资业务。引入逆周期调 节机制，《通知》明确将境内银行人民币跨境同业融资净融出余额与其资本水平、资金实力相 挂钩，通过跨境业务调节参数、宏观审慎调节参数进行调节。参数初始值的设置统筹兼顾业务 发展和风险防范的需要。 3、春节假期后人民币对美元汇率快速升值，在岸、离岸重返三年前高位。2 月 25 日至 26 日， 人民币汇率加速上行，在岸、离岸人民币先后突破 6.87、6.84 关口，离岸人民币于 26 日最高 触及 6.82665，创 2023 年 4 月以来新高。尽管人民币近期快速升值，但专家提醒，人民币汇率 走势受多重因素驱动，核心变量集中在中美利差、国内经济修复力度，以及全球风险偏好，预 计人民币年度走势维 ...

2026年02月27日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：减产兑现，暂持逢低做多思路 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美国生柴政策逐步落地，美豆油偏强表现 | 2 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆微跌，连粕或震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面偏强 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：涨价情绪蔓延 | 7 | | 棉花：期货出现回调20260227 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：弱势震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：盘面提前交易累库，但淡季去库难度大 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 -1.51% | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 0.55% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,714 8,19 ...

油料日报 | 2026-02-26 豆一高价博弈需求，花生震荡静待复工 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2605合约4679.00元/吨，较前日变化+46.00元/吨，幅度+0.99%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A05-79，较前日变化-46，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北市场今日大豆价格暂稳，贸易商基本暂未大面积复工，市场报价较为谨慎。黑龙江哈尔滨市 场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.30元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中 粒塔粮装车报价2.24元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.25元/斤， 较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河 嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.37元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋 白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤，较昨日平。 昨日豆一期货盘面震荡上行。豆一期货接连刷新高点，不过下游需求依然平淡，购销氛围未见显著回暖。后续需 观察加工企业及贸易环节的补库动作，若实际补库意愿提升，或 ...

| 棕榈油：地缘扰动油价上涨，基本面逻辑延续节前 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆平稳运行，豆油区间反弹 | 2 | | 豆粕：春节美豆变化不大，关注美国关税政策 | 4 | | 豆一：关注市场情绪，或稳中偏强 | 4 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 6 | | 白糖：区间整理 | 7 | | 棉花：预计小幅高开20260224 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 10 | | 生猪：假期现货不及预期 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2026年02月24日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 【基本面跟踪】 棕榈油：地缘扰动油价上涨，基本面逻辑延续 节前 豆油：美豆平稳运行，豆油区间反弹 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 24 日 商 品 研 究 油脂基本面数据 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 同期减少 23.82%，出油率环比上月同期增长 0.3%，产量环比上月同期减少 22.24% | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][6] 2. Core Viewpoints - The soybean futures market continued its upward trend, but the spot market had limited price adjustments due to the near - halt of trading activities and cautious market sentiment. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with most enterprises waiting to see the post - holiday market. Traders are generally confident about the post - holiday market, and the bullish sentiment is expected to continue due to potential post - holiday restocking demand and tight supply [1][2] - The peanut futures market declined slightly. As the Spring Festival approaches, the peanut market in major producing areas has basically stopped supplying, and most processing enterprises have shut down. The peanut market is expected to remain stable before the festival [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Related Content Soybean Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the Douyi 2605 contract was 4613.00 yuan/ton, up 94.00 yuan/ton or 2.08% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A05 - 13, down 94 or 32.14% from the previous day. The prices of national standard first - class soybeans in various regions of Heilongjiang remained unchanged [1] - Market Information: The grassroots quotations in the Northeast market have basically stopped, and the market has entered the pre - Spring Festival shutdown state. Traders are confident about the post - holiday market, and enterprises are expected to restock after the festival [1] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Peanut Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7946.00 yuan/ton, down 24.00 yuan/ton or 0.30% from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8018.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was PK03 - 1146.00, up 24.00 or - 2.05% from the previous day. The prices of peanuts in different regions and varieties were basically stable [3] - Market Information: As the Spring Festival approaches, the supply of peanuts in major producing areas has basically stopped, most processing enterprises have shut down, and the arrival volume of peanuts is extremely limited. The pre - holiday stocking of food processing plants and wholesale markets has also ended [4] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][6] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean futures market continued to rise, and the market has entered a pre - Spring Festival calm period. With low trading activity, traders are generally optimistic about the future. After the Spring Festival, companies may have a round of concentrated restocking demand, and the bullish sentiment in the market is accumulating due to the tight supply situation [1][2] - The peanut futures market rose and then fell. As the Spring Festival approaches, the peanut market in major producing areas has basically stagnated, and most processing enterprises have gradually shut down for the holiday. It is expected that the peanut market will remain stable before the festival [3][4][5] Summary by Related Categories Soybean Market - **Futures and Spot Data**: The closing price of the soybean 2605 contract was 4519.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous day. The spot basis of edible soybeans was A05 + 81, down 20 or 32.14% from the previous day [1] - **Market News**: The primary market in the Northeast region had no quotes, and the main producing areas had basically entered the pre - holiday shutdown state. Traders were generally confident about the future market. The prices of standard first - class soybeans in various regions of Heilongjiang remained stable [1] Peanut Market - **Futures and Spot Data**: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7970.00 yuan/ton, down 74.00 yuan/ton or 0.92% from the previous day. The average spot price of peanuts was 8018.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis was PK03 - 1170.00, up 74.00 or - 5.95% from the previous day [3] - **Market News**: The average price of national peanut kernels was basically stable. The procurement price of oil - processing enterprises' raw materials was also stable, and the prices varied according to quality [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Palm Oil**: With limited fundamental drivers, it is expected to undergo a sideways adjustment [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: The report lacks highlights, and it is likely to trade within a range [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: After the overnight slight increase in US soybeans, the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2][11]. - **Soybean**: The market is strong, and attention should be paid to changes in positions [2][11]. - **Corn**: It is expected to be slightly bullish and fluctuate upwards [2][14]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to low - basis opportunities [2][18]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to maintain a sideways trend before the holiday [2][23]. - **Eggs**: It is expected to undergo a sideways adjustment [2][27]. - **Hogs**: The peak - season stocking is over, and the futures price has a premium over the small - standard warehouse receipts [2][35]. - **Peanuts**: It is expected to trade sideways [2][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the palm oil main contract on the day session was 8,906 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.38%, and 8,868 yuan/ton at night, down 0.43%. The trading volume decreased by 91,226 lots, and the open interest decreased by 7,350 lots. The spot price in Guangdong was 8,950 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The basis was 44 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From February 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 9.16% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.3%, and the production decreased by 7.58%. Indonesia's decision to suspend the expansion of biodiesel blending ratio and the expectation of increased production in the coming months may put pressure on palm oil prices, but strong demand and overall slowdown in production growth may limit the downside. The GAPKI expects palm oil prices to fluctuate between 4,100 - 4,400 ringgit per ton in the first half of 2026 and then decline to 4,000 - 4,300 ringgit in the second half [5][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [10] Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of DCE soybean 2605 was 4,519 yuan/ton during the day session, up 60 yuan (+1.35%), and 4,563 yuan at night, up 62 yuan (+1.38%). The closing price of DCE soybean meal 2605 was 2,773 yuan/ton during the day session, up 40 yuan (+1.46%), and 2,768 yuan at night, up 10 yuan (+0.36%). The trading volume of soybean meal was 4.54 million tons per day, and the inventory was 88.16 million tons per week [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 11, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to technical buying and expectations of Chinese demand. Brazil has started harvesting a record - high soybean crop, but the prospect of China buying more US soybeans has boosted the futures market. Heavy rain in Brazil's Mato Grosso state has raised concerns about soybean quality [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal is 0, and that of soybean is +1 [13] Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2603 was 2,298 yuan/ton during the day session, up 1.37%, and 2,303 yuan at night, up 0.22%. The trading volume increased by 54,540 lots, and the open interest decreased by 47,441 lots. The closing price of C2605 was 2,316 yuan/ton during the day session, up 1.58%, and remained unchanged at night. The trading volume increased by 402,301 lots, and the open interest increased by 199,841 lots [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn bulk shipping port price remained flat at 2,290 - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the container - shipped first - class grain port price remained flat at 2,310 - 2,330 yuan/ton. The price in Guangdong Shekou also remained flat. The price of deep - processed corn in the Northeast decreased in some areas, while the price in North China increased slightly [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [17] Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 13.84 cents/pound, down 0.28 cents. The mainstream spot price was 5,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The futures main contract price was 5,266 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The 15 - spread was 46 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the 59 - spread was - 9 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan; the mainstream spot basis was 64 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of January 31, the sugar production in the 25/26 season in India increased by 17% year - on - year. Brazil exported 2.02 million tons in January, a 2.1% year - on - year decrease. China imported 580,000 tons of sugar in December, an increase of 190,000 tons. As of the end of January, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season was 4.03 million tons, a decrease of 790,000 tons [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [21] Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of CF2605 was 14,745 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.61%, and 14,815 yuan at night, up 0.47%. The trading volume decreased by 134,609 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5,168 lots. The closing price of CY2605 was 20,590 yuan/ton during the day session, up 0.73%, and 20,650 yuan at night, up 0.29%. The trading volume decreased by 1,999 lots, and the open interest increased by 1,045 lots [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The spot trading of cotton was light, and the basis was generally stable. The cotton yarn market was in the final stage, and textile enterprises will concentrate on taking holidays in the second half of the week, resulting in a shrinking trading volume. ICE cotton futures continued to rebound slightly, and the near - month warehouse receipts continued to increase [24]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [25] Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2603 was 2,923 yuan/500 kg, up 0.31%, with a trading volume decrease of 18,675 lots and an open - interest decrease of 17,042 lots. The closing price of egg 2604 was 3,156 yuan/500 kg, up 0.32%, with a trading volume increase of 3,339 lots and an open - interest increase of 411 lots [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [28] Hogs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 12,280 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the Sichuan spot price was 10,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Guangdong spot price was 11,660 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of hog 2603 was 10,845 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the closing price of hog 2605 was 11,555 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan; the closing price of hog 2607 was 12,260 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [32]. - **Market Information**: Guangxi Yangxiang registered 100 lots of warehouse receipts for the March contract; Dekang registered 525 lots; Fuyuan registered 22 lots; and Muyuan registered 80 lots [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 [34] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 general peanuts was 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Henan Baisha general peanuts was 7,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Xingcheng Xiaoriben peanuts was 8,660 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Sudan refined peanuts was 8,650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of PK603 was 8,020 yuan/ton, down 0.32%; the closing price of PK605 was 7,970 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [36]. - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, Nanyang Baisha general peanuts were around 3.6 - 3.8 yuan/jin, and Kaifeng large peanuts were around 3.9 - 3.95 yuan/jin. In Jilin, 308 general peanuts were around 4.6 - 4.7 yuan/jin. In Liaoning, 308 general peanuts were around 4.5 - 4.6 yuan/jin. In Shandong, most areas had basically ended pre - holiday trading [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] 2. Core Views - For soybeans, the futures market showed an increase in positions and prices. As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot market has become quiet with limited trading, presenting a situation of weak supply and demand. Most market participants are waiting to see the post - holiday trend [1][2] - For peanuts, the futures market had a narrow - range fluctuation. The market has limited arrivals, and processing enterprises are on holiday. The oil mills' purchase prices are stable but they are gradually stopping purchases and operations. It is expected that peanut prices will remain stable before the Spring Festival [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the Douyi 2605 contract was 4499.00 yuan/ton, up 112.00 yuan/ton or 2.55% from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The basis of edible soybeans was A05 + 101, down 112 or 32.14% from the previous day. Northeast soybean prices remained stable, and the pre - Spring Festival stocking was basically over [1] Peanut Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 8044.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: The average spot price of peanuts was 8018.00 yuan/ton, down 1049.00 yuan/ton or 11.57% month - on - month. The basis was PK03 - 1244.00, unchanged from the previous day. The overall peanut price was basically stable, and oil mills' purchase prices were also stable but with limited arrivals [3]