成文日期：20260107 报告周期: 日报 研究品种:花生 研究员：陈博（从业资格号：F03138462; 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0022938) 花生期货日报 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 2026 年 1 月 7 日，郑州商品交易所花生期货主力合约 (PK.CZC)开盘价 8066 元/吨．最高价 8124 元/吨，最低价 8038 元/ 吨，收盘价 8072 元/吨，较前一交易日上涨 1.0%。当日成交量 144402 手，成交额 58.3125 亿元，持仓量 164702 手。价格呈现震 荡上行走势,成交量和成交额较近期平均水平有所放大,显示市场 交投活跃度提升。 图 1:花生主力合约分时图 202601 数据来源:同花顺期货通 2 现货市场 根据 Wind 资讯数据, 2025 年 1-6 月基差呈现震荡下行趋势, 研究咨询：028 6130 3163 邮箱：institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线：4006821188 请务必阅读文末风险揭示及免责声明 从 1582 元逐步回落至 1000 元附近、反映期现价格价差逐步收窄。 基差长期为正表明花生期货市场长期处于现货升水状态,体现了 ...

Maike 迈科期货 TO DISCOVER VALUE TO CREATE VALUE TO SHARE VALUE www.mkqh.com 迈科期货基差统计表 | | 名称 | 交易代码 | 主力基差率 | 较昨日増减 | 当月基差 | 次月基差 | 再次月基差 | 录自导科 | 次月合约 | 再次月合约 | 现货价格 | 现货价格来源 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜 | CU | 0.21% | 0.86% | 215 | 115 | 165 | 101870 | 101970 | 101920 | 102085 | SMM 1#电解铜 | | | 指 | AL | 0.04% | 1.23% | 10 | -15 | -60 | 23990 | 24015 | 24060 | 24000 | SMM A00铝 | | | 锌 | ZN | 0.52% | 0.54% | 125 | 80 | 40 | 24045 | 24090 | 24130 | 2417 ...

油料日报 | 2026-01-09 豆一政策提振及备货支撑，花生需求偏弱格局难改 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2605合约4387.00元/吨，较前日变化-17.00元/吨，幅度-0.39%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A05+53，较前日变化+57，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：当前东北地区大豆现货价格保持稳定，主要由于当前价位偏高抑制了市场成交活跃度。大豆期货 价格近日大幅上涨并突破关键阻力位，同时基层余粮持续消耗，国储大豆拍卖维持高成交率且溢价显著。现货方 面：黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/斤；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白 39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.17元/斤；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.18元/斤； 黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白 41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.35元/斤；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.28元/斤。 昨日豆一期货主力合约小幅回调。南方大豆产区现货价格持稳，市场成交平淡，下游采购谨慎，走货缓 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [3][5] 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean market is currently characterized by tight supply and potential demand, with strong short - term upward price momentum due to factors such as traders' reluctance to sell, tight supply of high - protein soybeans, active state reserve auctions, and pre - Spring Festival stocking demand. However, high prices may suppress consumption, and price corrections should be watched out for after the pre - holiday stocking period [2] - The peanut market has an increase in supply, but due to farmers' reluctance to sell and middlemen's price - holding mentality, the overall market trading activity is low. The downstream oil mills' purchase prices are stable but with strict acceptance standards, and food processing enterprises mainly replenish inventory based on rigid demand. Attention should be paid to the downstream stocking rhythm before the Spring Festival [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybean No. 1 2605 contract yesterday was 4404.00 yuan/ton, up 128.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a change of +2.99% [1] - **Spot**: The basis of edible soybean spot is A05 - 4, down 88 from the previous day, a change of 32.14%. Northeast soybean spot prices continued to strengthen yesterday, generally up 20 to 40 yuan/ton. Specific spot prices in different regions of Heilongjiang are provided [1] Strategy - The investment strategy is neutral [3] Peanut Market Analysis - **Futures**: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract yesterday was 8072.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a change of +0.12% [3] - **Spot**: The average spot price of peanuts was 8018.00 yuan/ton, down 18.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a change of - 0.22%. The spot basis was PK03 - 1072.00, down 10.00 from the previous day, a change of +0.94%. National average prices for various types of peanuts and oil mills' purchase prices are provided [3] Strategy - The investment strategy is neutral [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [3][6] Core Viewpoints - The soybean market has a firm price bottom supported by suppliers' reluctance to sell and policy measures, with potential upward momentum from pre - holiday stocking expectations, but current demand is weak [2] - The peanut market has strong price support due to the reluctance of the grassroots and some buyers to sell, but the demand side is weak overall, and the focus is on the pre - holiday stocking rhythm of downstream users [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Market Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the bean one 2605 contract was 4276.00 yuan/ton, up 33.00 yuan/ton or 0.78% from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible bean spot basis was A05 + 84, down 13 or 32.14% from the previous day. Northeast soybean prices generally rose due to policy benefits and limited remaining grain at the grassroots level. Southern soybean spot prices were stable with light trading [1][2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Peanut Market Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 8062.00 yuan/ton, up 124.00 yuan/ton or 1.56% from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8036.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was PK03 - 1062.00, down 124.00 or 13.22% from the previous day. The overall demand was weak, and the price performance of oil peanuts varied [3][5] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [6] Risk - The risk is weakening demand [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5] Report's Core View - The soybean market shows a game pattern of "bullish in producing areas and weak in selling areas", with policy support highlighting. The peanut market has a generally loose supply, but the actual trading activity is average due to the psychological reluctance of farmers and traders to sell [1][2][3] Market Analysis Soybean - **Futures**: The closing price of the soybeans 2605 contract was 4,243.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan/ton or 0.05% from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The edible soybean spot basis was A05 + 97, up 38 or 32.14% from the previous day. The spot prices in different regions of Heilongjiang varied from 2.12 to 2.33 yuan/jin [1] - **Market Situation**: The soybean futures main contract rose and then fell. The prices in southern selling areas were stable. The price transmission was blocked due to the low acceptance of high - priced raw materials by downstream enterprises, resulting in light trading. The policy support was significant, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased as needed [1][2] Peanut - **Futures**: The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract was 7,938.00 yuan/ton, down 54.00 yuan/ton or 0.68% from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: The average peanut spot price was 8,036.00 yuan/ton, down 9.00 yuan/ton or 0.11% month - on - month. The spot basis was PK03 - 938.00, up 54.00 or - 5.44% month - on - month. The prices of different peanut varieties in various regions were stable [3] - **Market Situation**: The peanut futures main contract weakened. The overall peanut supply was loose, but the actual trading activity was average due to the reluctance of farmers and traders to sell. The downstream food enterprises mainly had rigid demand, and the demand from oil mills decreased [3][4] Strategy - The strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][4] Group 2: Core Views - The soybean market shows a pattern of "strong in production areas, weak in sales areas." The supply side is supported by high - volume and high - premium state reserve auctions, leading to strong price - holding sentiment among traders and tight market supply. The demand side is weak, with processing enterprises having low purchasing willingness. The future market trend depends on the game between supply - side hoarding sentiment and demand - side actual purchasing power [2] - The peanut market has an increasing domestic supply. As the New Year's Day approaches, the trading of high - quality varieties in the Northeast production area has improved slightly, with prices showing a stable - to - strong trend. However, the procurement volume of oil mills has decreased, and the trading of common peanuts in Henan has slowed down, with prices showing a stable - to - weak trend. Attention should be paid to downstream pre - holiday stocking trends [3][4] Group 3: Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures and Spot Market Data - The closing price of the soybeans 2605 contract yesterday was 4224.00 yuan/ton, a change of +68.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +1.64%. The spot basis of edible soybeans was A05 + 76, a change of - 8 from the previous day, a decrease of 32.14% [1] Market Information - Recently, the Northeast soybean market has received policy support, and the active state reserve auctions have boosted market sentiment. The actual downstream demand is still flat, and the price is generally stable. The spot prices in different regions of Heilongjiang are provided [1] Market Trend - Yesterday, the main soybean futures contract fluctuated upward. The supply - demand in the southern market is at a low level, and the price is generally stable. The state reserve auctions have strengthened the price - holding sentiment in production areas, resulting in tight market supply. The demand side is weak, and it is difficult to drive the market continuously [2] Group 4: Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures and Spot Market Data - The closing price of the peanut 2603 contract yesterday was 7968.00 yuan/ton, a change of +26.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.33%. The average spot price of peanuts was 8045.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 19.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of - 0.24%. The spot basis was PK03 - 968.00, a change of - 26.00 from the previous day, an increase of +2.76% [3] Market Information - The average price of common peanuts in the national market was 4.03 yuan/jin, showing a stable - to - rising trend. The prices of different peanut varieties in different regions and the procurement prices of oil mills are provided [3] Market Trend - Yesterday, the main peanut futures contract fluctuated upward. The domestic peanut supply has been increasing. The trading of high - quality varieties in the Northeast has improved slightly, while the procurement volume of oil mills has decreased, and the trading in Henan has slowed down [3][4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, the short - term soybean price is expected to remain stable, with local narrow - range adjustments due to quality and regional supply - demand differences. The market is supported by farmers' reluctance to sell and policy acquisitions at the bottom, but high prices restrict downstream acceptance. Key factors to track include grass - roots grain sales progress, state - reserve acquisition rhythm, and pre - holiday terminal restocking [2] - For peanuts, in the short term, the price has limited room to fall due to cost support, but lacks the power to rise continuously because of insufficient downstream purchasing enthusiasm. Future trends depend on the actual purchasing sentiment and rhythm changes of downstream enterprises [5] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybeans Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2605 contract was 4156.00 yuan/ton, up 28.00 yuan/ton (+0.68%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The spot basis of edible soybeans was A05 + 84, down 28 (-32.14%) from the previous day. Northeast soybean clean - grain prices rose, and high - protein tower - grain prices were stable. The impact of state - reserve auctions and acquisitions was neutral, and the market shipment rhythm slowed down. Southern soybeans had average quality and sufficient supply, with weak downstream demand and stable prices. In the sales areas, processing enterprises were cautious in purchasing [1][2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [3] Peanuts Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanuts 2603 contract was 7942.00 yuan/ton, down 28.00 yuan/ton (-0.35%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8064.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00 yuan/ton (+0.11%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK03 - 942.00, up 28.00 (-2.89%) month - on - month. The national average price of common peanuts was basically stable, and each region had different price ranges. The contract procurement average price of oil - mill peanuts was 7288 yuan/ton, with different quotes from each oil mill [3] Strategy - The strategy is neutral [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment outlooks and trend analyses for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each commodity, and gives corresponding trading suggestions and risk warnings [2][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining. Gold prices are affected by factors such as inflation and macro - news. The trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment. The price shows a downward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][5]. - **Platinum**: Capital outflows lead to a retracement. The price drops significantly, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][29]. - **Palladium**: It follows platinum's retracement. The price also shows a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][29]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Capital liquidation causes price corrections. The price experiences a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The price fluctuates within a certain range, and the trend strength is 0 [2][15]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory limits price declines. The price shows a slight decline, and the trend strength is 0 [2][19]. - **Tin**: Supply is disrupted again. The price drops, and the trend strength is 1 [2][22]. - **Aluminum**: It follows copper. The price movement is related to copper, and the trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Alumina**: It is in a sideways oscillation. The price remains relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It shows a slight decline. The price drops slightly, and the trend strength is 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals restrict elasticity, but attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil - related (implied in some products)**: Affects the prices of downstream products such as fuel oil and chemicals. For example, the price of fuel oil may be affected by crude oil price fluctuations [126]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night - session fluctuations increase, and it may maintain strength in the short term. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][126]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It is in a strong - side oscillation, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the outer market is temporarily stable. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][126]. - **PTA**: It is in a high - level oscillation market. The supply increases, and the demand is relatively stable. It is recommended to pay attention to position management before the holiday, and the trend strength is 0 [2][64][69]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium term. The port inventory accumulates, and the trend is weak. The trend strength is 0 [2][64][70]. - **LPG**: The short - term supply is tight, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][113]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply - demand tightens, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling rebound. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][114]. - **PVC**: It is in a weak - side oscillation. The market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the rebound space is limited. The trend strength is 0 [2][122]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean - related (Soybean, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil)**: - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight US soybeans closed down, and Dalian soybean meal may follow the adjustment. The price shows a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][159][160]. - **Soybean Oil**: The US soybean drive is not significant, and it is mainly operated within a range. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][154]. - **Soybean**: It is in an oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][161]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][163]. - **Sugar**: It is in a range - bound arrangement. The price fluctuates within a certain range, and the trend strength is 0 [2][167]. - **Cotton**: The area expectation is undetermined, and the futures price corrects. The price shows a decline, and the trend strength is 0 [2][172]. - **Eggs**: They are in a short - term oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][178]. - **Hogs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and they are strong in the short term. The price shows an upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][181]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to oil mill acquisitions. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][187]. - **Palm Oil**: It has a short - term rhythm rebound, but the height is limited. The price shows a certain upward trend, and the trend strength is 0 [2][154]. Others - **Iron Ore**: It is in a high - level repetition. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][45]. - **Rebar**: Macroeconomic support and industrial suppression coexist, and steel prices maintain a range - bound oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][47]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Similar to rebar, with macroeconomic support and industrial suppression, and steel prices maintain a range - bound oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][47]. - **Silicon Iron**: Market information disrupts, and it has a wide - range oscillation. The price shows large fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][51]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Market information disrupts, and it has a wide - range oscillation. The price shows large fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][51]. - **Coke**: The fourth - round price cut starts, and it oscillates repeatedly. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][56]. - **Coking Coal**: Year - end production cuts disrupt, and it oscillates repeatedly. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][56]. - **Log**: It is in a low - level oscillation. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][60]. - **Styrene**: It is in a short - term oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][107]. - **Caustic Soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][83]. - **Paper Pulp**: It is in a weak - side oscillation. The price shows a decline, and the trend strength is - 1 [2][89]. - **Glass**: The original sheet price is stable. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][96]. - **Methanol**: It oscillates with support. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][99]. - **Urea**: It runs in a short - term oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][103]. - **Short - Fiber**: It is in a high - level oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][143]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is in a high - level oscillation. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][143]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see. The price is relatively stable, and the trend strength is 0 [2][146]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is in a short - term oscillation mainly. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][151]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Attention should be paid to the cabin - opening guidance. The price shows certain fluctuations, and the trend strength is 0 [2][128].

回顾活动历程，2024年首次面向市场公开征集便收获热烈反响，参与单位涵盖国家部委下属事业单位、 期货公司、产业企业、媒体、高校、证券公司、保险公司等，形成浓厚的外部参与氛围，显著提升了活 动影响力。首届作品主题集中于产业企业运用棉花、白糖、PTA、苹果、花生、玻璃等品种对冲市场风 险，生动呈现了期货市场在服务中小企业、助农增收、推动产业转型升级、赋能区域经济发展等方面的 积极作用。 本届征稿同样获得市场主体广泛响应，投稿主体包括期货公司、产业企业、媒体等各类机构及个人，部 分优质主体凭借持续深耕产业服务的实践积累，实现连续两年入围。参赛作品均为原创且未在重点媒体 平台刊发，内容聚焦实际问题，详细阐述了运用期货工具解决市场痛点的具体路径，涵盖风险识别、方 案设计、实施成效等核心要素。 12月25日，郑州商品交易所（以下简称"郑商所"）正式发布公告，2025"高质量发展中的期货力量"征稿 活动圆满落幕。经专家评审严格筛选，25篇聚焦期货服务实体经济实践的优秀稿件成功入围，集中展现 了期现融合的丰硕成效。 据记者了解，郑商所"高质量发展中的期货力量"征稿活动已连续开展2年，累计征集原创作品165篇。稿 件内容覆盖面 ...