八月中州，高朋满座。2025中国（郑州）国际期货论坛在各方的期待中启幕，并在热烈掌声中落下帷 幕。本届论坛以"开放"与"风险管理"为关键词，来自监管机构、境内外交易所以及产业界的众多代表集 聚一堂，围绕中国期货市场高水平对外开放、创新赋能实体经济发展等热点话题深入交流，共同描绘期 货市场国际化发展与期现深度融合的新蓝图。 凝聚共识，开放迈入新阶段 论坛上，各方嘉宾一致认为，持续扩大开放是中国期货市场行稳致远的重要路径。中国期货业协会党委 书记、会长杨光表示，期货市场高水平对外开放不仅是构建新发展格局、增强国内国际两个市场联动效 应的关键环节，更是落实党中央决策部署的具体实践。 郑商所相关负责人也表示，推进期货市场对外开放能够为国际市场提供更多的期货和期权产品供给，吸 引更多境外客户参与，提升大宗商品价格的影响力。 期货日报记者从论坛上了解到，中国期货市场在对外开放领域取得了一系列重要成果。一是"引进来"。 自2018年首个对外开放期货品种原油期货上市以来，截至2025年7月底，境内已有24个特定品种，覆盖 能源、金属、农产品、航运等领域。摩根大通期货、瑞银期货、摩根士丹利期货等期货公司已实现 100%外资持股 ...

| 序号 | 合约名称 | 最新 现手 | | 天0 | | 委价 湘幅8 买量 英里 | | 成交量 测绘 | 持仓里 | 日后会 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 焦煤2601 M | 1210.0 2149 | | 1210.0 | 1210.5 | 6.00% | 92 31 | 878237 68.5 | 700380 | -308 | | 2 | 集词2601 M | 1740.0 | 32 | 1739.5 | 1740.0 | 4.60% | 2 8 | 18459 76.5 | 38641 | 350 | | 3 | 燃料油2510 M | 2861 | 1084 | 2861 | 2862 | 3.40% | 1 67 | 413077 94 | 134070 | 8281 | | ব | 玻璃2601 M | 1200 | 85 | 1200 | 1201 | 3.00% | 72 1085 | 1012473 | 35 1126099 | -22608 | | ഗ | ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 王一博 | | 从业资格证号： | F3083334 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0018596 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578169 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：油脂供应充足，豆油价格继续低开低走。主要原因在于市场 尚未证实的消息称可能会有600万吨大豆抛储并进口美豆轮换（消 息尚未证实）。中美、中加贸易关系依旧严峻，市场对于四季度油 籽供应存在担忧。目前豆油市场处于"弱现实+强预期"格局，弱 现实主要表现为 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is rated as neutral [3][5] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of new and old soybeans is stable, while the peanut market lacks confidence. The soybeans futures showed a weak oscillation, and the low - protein auction soybeans prices are under pressure. The peanut futures had a weak adjustment, with the demand side remaining sluggish and traders lacking confidence [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the bean - one 2511 contract yesterday was 4036.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan/ton (-0.25%) from the previous day. Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A11 + 224, up 10 (+32.14%) from the previous day [1] - In the northeast market, soybean prices in some producing areas dropped slightly due to the decline in low - protein prices and the impact of state - reserve auctions. In the sales areas, the trading volume was relatively low due to high temperatures and poor demand. Specific prices in different regions of Heilongjiang showed some declines or remained stable [1] - The bean - one futures showed a weak oscillation. The auctions of central and local soybeans continued, and the lower reserve price increased the transaction rate, but the Heilongjiang provincial - reserve soybean auction failed. The soybeans in the northeast and inland areas are in the late growth stage with good growth and weather conditions. High - protein soybean prices were stable, while low - protein soybean prices were under pressure [2] Strategy - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [3] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract yesterday was 7782.00 yuan/ton, down 46.00 yuan/ton (-0.59%) from the previous day. Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8260.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 318.00, up 46.00 (+16.91%) from the previous day [3] - The peanut market is in the transition period between new and old peanuts. The average price of old peanuts is stable, and they are being cleared from inventory. New peanuts' prices are rising steadily, and the number of new - peanut - listing areas and the supply are increasing. The peanut futures had a weak adjustment. The overall trading atmosphere of domestic peanut spots is average, and the demand is sluggish [3][4] Strategy - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [5]

受邀嘉宾在2025中国（郑州）国际期货论坛主论坛上作主题分享。图片均为中国（郑州）国际期货论坛主办 方供图 ■核心提示 2018年，中国期货市场正式开启国际化步伐。近年来，从PTA期货引入境外交易者，到菜油、菜粕、花生等 期货价格成为全球重要基准，"郑州价格"影响力逐渐增强。8月19日—20日，2025中国（郑州）国际期货论坛 在郑州举办，本报特推出"从郑州出发，护航实体、链动全球"特别报道，全面展现期货市场赋能实体经济发 展的澎湃动能。 赋能实体共谋未来 ——2025中国（郑州）国际期货论坛侧记 8月19日—20日，2025中国（郑州）国际期货论坛在郑州举行。 作为全球期货业聚焦的年度盛事，中国（郑州）国际期货论坛汇聚行业精英共探风险管理创新路径，为实体 企业应对复杂环境提供新思路，推动期现融合迈向更高水平。 一次思想盛宴 本届论坛以"赋能实体经济助力强国建设——期货市场高质量发展的实践与机遇"为主题，除主论坛外，还设 置了四个分论坛，分别为对外开放论坛、产业企业风险管理论坛、农产品（油脂油料）论坛、工业品（聚 酯）论坛。 主论坛主题演讲环节，国务院发展研究中心原副主任余斌，中国期货业协会党委书记、会长杨光 ...

期货日报网讯(记者邬梦雯)8月20日，由郑州商品交易所、芝加哥商业交易所集团联合主办的2025中国 (郑州)国际期货论坛正式召开。在当日下午举行的农产品(油脂油料)论坛上，郑商所相关负责人表示， 当前，全球经济格局深度调整，贸易不确定性上升，商品价格波动加大，油脂油料产业正经历供需结构 重构的关键时期。作为服务实体经济的金融基础设施，郑商所始终秉持"让实体看见方向助经济稳健运 行"的使命，以品种创新为矛、对外开放为帆、产融协同为基，为产业链构建高质量风险管理体系。 我国在全球油脂油料贸易中扮演着重要角色，是菜籽油、菜籽粕全球第二大进口和第一大消费国，是花 生最大的进口国和消费国。面对世界贸易格局变化，期货市场助力产业稳健运行的作用愈发凸显。 上述郑商所相关负责人介绍，郑商所深耕油脂油料市场多年，持续优化油脂油料品种规则，稳步推进品 种对外开放，深入开展各种产业培育活动，为中国油脂油料产业安全和高质量发展提供期货力量。 具体来看，筑牢品种体系与制度建设是保障市场稳健运行的核心。郑商所油脂油料品种体系从2007年菜 籽油期货起步，先后上市了菜籽粕、花生等油脂油料期货、期权品种，为产业提供了丰富的风险管理工 具。今 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Weather speculation has eased and demand is weak, putting pressure on soybeans and peanuts. The domestic soybean market has a weak fundamental situation, with ongoing soybean auctions, favorable weather for growth, and weak demand. The relationship between domestic and imported soybeans is strengthening. For peanuts, the market is in a transition phase, with weak downstream demand. As new peanuts are increasingly available, prices may face pressure [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract yesterday was 4,046.00 yuan/ton, a change of +2.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.05%. Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A11 + 214, a change of -42 from the previous day, a decrease of 32.14%. In the Northeast market, soybean prices were stable yesterday, and state reserve auctions had light trading [1] - Yesterday, soybeans futures fluctuated. Last week, influenced by surrounding varieties, the fluctuation range increased. The preliminary anti - dumping ruling on rapeseed also provided some support. However, due to weak fundamentals, the government is conducting soybean auctions, the weather is favorable for soybean growth, and demand is weak. The relationship between domestic and imported soybeans is strengthening, and their linkage is obvious. Short - term attention should be paid to weather changes and policy adjustments [2] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanuts 2510 contract yesterday was 7,828.00 yuan/ton, a change of +18.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.23%. Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8,260.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 272.00, a change of -118.00 from the previous day, a decrease of -30.26%. The average price of domestic peanut kernels was 4.13 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/jin. Some producing areas are in the new - old peanut transition phase, with the price of old peanuts weakening and new peanuts being relatively firm [3] - Yesterday, peanut futures had a narrow - range fluctuation. The market is in a transition phase where new peanuts are gradually increasing in supply and old peanuts are winding down. Demand is weak, and traders are mainly consuming existing inventories. As the area of new peanut listings expands, peanut prices may face pressure. Attention should be paid to production and weather conditions [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil: Follow macro trends and undergo a corrective adjustment [2][4] - Soybean oil: Lack of driving force from US soybeans, undergo a corrective adjustment [2][4] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans closed lower, Dalian soybean meal adjusted and fluctuated [2][10] - Soybean: Weak atmosphere in the soybean sector, adjusted and fluctuated [2][10] - Corn: Run weakly [2][15] - Sugar: The import volume in July increased significantly year-on-year [2][18] - Cotton: Pay attention to the listing situation of new cotton [2][23] - Eggs: Weak long - term expectations [2][29] - Live pigs: Wait for the spot market verification at the end of the month [2][31] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the situation of new peanuts [2][37] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil futures had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.57% and a night - session decrease of 1.06%. Soybean oil futures had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.07% and a night - session decrease of 1.99%. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects palm oil prices to stay above 4300 ringgit [4][5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is - 1 [9]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2601 had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.44% and a night - session decrease of 1.04%. DCE soybean 2511 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.25% and a night - session decrease of 0.81%. CBOT soybeans 11 closed down 0.70% [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 19, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to good soybean yield potential and long - position profit - taking. Private exporters reported selling 228,606 tons of US soybeans to Mexico for 2025/26 delivery [12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of soybean meal and soybean is 0 [12]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2509 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 1.10% and a night - session decrease of 0.27%. C2511 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.60% and a night - session decrease of 0.23%. The northern corn collection port price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong Shekou price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of corn is 0 [16]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: The raw sugar price was 16.3 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5990 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5661 yuan/ton. China imported 740,000 tons of sugar in July, an increase of 320,000 tons [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of sugar is 0 [21]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.18% and a flat night - session. ICE cotton 12 closed down 0.46%. Cotton spot trading was average, and the cotton yarn market showed a slight recovery [23][24]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of cotton is 0 [27]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2509 closed down 4.27%, and Egg 2601 closed down 1.64%. The 9 - 1 spread was - 485, a decrease from the previous day [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of eggs is 0 [29]. Live Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 13,880 yuan/ton, and the futures prices of different contracts increased year - on - year. The trading volume and open interest of most contracts decreased [33]. - **Market Logic**: The planned slaughter volume of group farms increased in August, demand growth was limited, and the market pressure was high. The short - term support level of LH2509 is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [35]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of live pigs is - 1 [34]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: PK510 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.02%, and PK511 had a decrease of 0.38%. New peanuts in some areas are gradually being listed, with limited supply [37][38]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of peanuts is 0 [39].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [1][3][4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For soybeans, the supply of domestic soybeans is stable due to continuous auctions of old soybeans by Sinograin and good growth of new - season soybeans in the Northeast. The downstream processing industry has low operating rates, and the summer off - season suppresses demand. The current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the new soybean listing rhythm and downstream consumption changes [1][2] - For peanuts, before the large - scale listing of new peanuts, the confidence of trading entities is insufficient. The inventory of old peanuts is being consumed, and the supply of new peanuts is limited with high prices. However, downstream demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the new peanut listing rhythm and downstream market acceptance [3] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract was 4044.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 12.00 yuan/ton (- 0.30%) from the previous day. The daily increase was 0.00%. - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A11 + 256, a change of + 12 (+ 32.14%) from the previous day. The prices in the Northeast market were stable, with the price of first - class protein 39% medium - grain tower - loaded soybeans in Harbin, Shuangyashan, and Jiamusi at 2.15 yuan/jin, and the price of first - class protein 41% medium - grain tower - loaded soybeans in Qiqihar, Heihe, and Suihua ranging from 2.19 - 2.22 yuan/jin [1] Strategy - Neutral [1] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2510 contract was 7810.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 12.00 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous day. - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 8260.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 140.00 yuan/ton (- 1.67%) from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 390.00, a change of + 12.00 (+ 3.17%) from the previous day. The domestic peanut market was basically stable, with the average price of common peanuts at 4.20 yuan/jin, and prices in different regions showing small fluctuations [3] Strategy - Neutral [3] Risk - Demand weakening [4]

Report Overview - Date: August 19, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Report Core Views - **Palm Oil**: The origin has a prosperous supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to go long at low levels [2][6] - **Soybean Oil**: Bullish factors have been fully traded, and it will fluctuate at a high level [2][7] - **Soybean Meal**: The overnight US soybeans slightly declined, and the Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2][12] - **Soybean One**: It will fluctuate [2][12] - **Corn**: It will run in a fluctuating manner [2][17] - **Sugar**: It will have a narrow - range consolidation [2][20] - **Cotton**: New drivers are needed for further price increases [2][25] - **Eggs**: The long - term outlook is weak [2][30] - **Pigs**: The spot market remains weak [2][32] - **Peanuts**: The near - term is strong, and the long - term is weak [2][38] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's main contract had a daily - closing price of 9,534 yuan/ton with a 1.49% increase and a night - closing price of 9,620 yuan/ton with a 0.90% increase. Soybean oil's main contract had a daily - closing price of 8,548 yuan/ton with a - 0.16% change and a night - closing price of 8,548 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change. The spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions also had corresponding changes [7] - **News**: From August 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.88% month - on - month, and the expected export volume increased by 34.5% month - on - month [8][10] - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil is 0 [11] Soybean Meal and Soybean One - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean one 2511 had a daily - closing price of 4044 yuan/ton with no change, and DCE soybean meal 2601 had a daily - closing price of 3155 yuan/ton with a 0.57% increase. The spot prices of soybean meal in different regions had different quotes [12] - **News**: On August 18, CBOT soybean futures mostly declined. As of August 17, the US soybean good - excellent rate was 68%, the same as last week [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean one have a trend intensity of 0 [14] Corn - **Fundamentals**: The important spot prices such as the Northeast acquisition average price, Jinzhou closing price, etc. remained unchanged. The futures contracts C2509 and C2511 had different price changes and trading volume and position changes [15] - **News**: The northern corn collection port price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong Shekou price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [16] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [18] Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 16.24 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5990 yuan/ton, and the futures main price was 5672 yuan/ton [20] - **News**: Brazil's production needs to be re - estimated, and India's monsoon precipitation decreased. China's sugar import and production data in different periods were also provided [20][21][22] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [23] Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601 had a daily - closing price of 14,125 yuan/ton with a 0.04% increase. The spot prices of different cotton types in different regions had small increases [25] - **News**: The domestic cotton spot trading improved slightly, and the cotton yarn market trading also improved slightly. The US Department of Agriculture lowered the US cotton production and ending stocks for the 25/26 season [26] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [27] Eggs - **Fundamentals**: The futures prices of eggs 2509 and eggs 2601 decreased. The spot prices of eggs in different regions had different changes [30] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [30] Pigs - **Fundamentals**: The Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong spot prices were 13780 yuan/ton, 13550 yuan/ton, and 14990 yuan/ton respectively. The futures prices of different contracts also decreased [34] - **Market Logic**: In August, the group's planned slaughter volume increased, demand growth was limited, and the market pressure was high. The short - term support and pressure levels for the LH2509 contract were given [36] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is - 1 [35] Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The important spot prices of peanuts in different regions remained unchanged. The futures contracts PK510 and PK511 had small price decreases [38] - **Spot Market**: The new peanut trading in different regions had different situations, and the new peanuts were expected to be listed in late September [39] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0 [41]