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瑞达期货苯乙烯产业日报-20250630
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 10:05
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot supply of styrene is expected to remain loose, while downstream demand is in the off - season with mainly rigid demand. The finished product inventory of EPS, PS, and ABS is high, and profit margins are shrinking, which restrains demand growth. The total inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, making de - stocking more difficult. The cost support is limited as geopolitical factors have weakened and global demand growth is relatively weak, and pure benzene may decline under the influence of its own supply - demand contradiction. Although the deep discount of the futures main contract restrains the downside space, the spot supply - demand and cost of styrene are bearish. EB2508's daily K - line should pay attention to the support around 7200 and the resistance around 7420 [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of styrene futures was 7287 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan; the trading volume was 313,629 lots, a decrease of 10,678 lots. The long position of the top 20 holders was 357,712 lots, an increase of 6,971 lots; the closing price of the July contract was 7408 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan. The open interest of the active contract was 280,966 lots, an increase of 3,464 lots; the net long position of the top 20 holders was - 20,537 lots, a decrease of 3,373 lots. The short position of the top 20 holders was 378,249 lots, an increase of 10,344 lots; the total number of warehouse receipts was 0 lots, a decrease of 7,245 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot price of styrene was 8084 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan; the CFR China intermediate price was 921 US dollars/ton, the FOB South Korea intermediate price was 911 US dollars/ton. The mainstream price in the Northeast region was 7875 yuan/ton, in the South China region was 7865 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan, in the North China region was 7825 yuan/ton, and in the East China region was 7985 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia intermediate price of ethylene was 851 US dollars/ton, the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 861 US dollars/ton, the CIF Northwest Europe intermediate price was 823.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 54 US dollars, and the FD US Gulf price was 457 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6 US dollars. The spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan's CIF was 736.5 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 53.33 US dollars; the FOB price in the US Gulf was 263 cents/gallon; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 710 US dollars/ton, an increase of 19 US dollars. The market price in the South China market was 6100 yuan/ton, in the East China market was 5985 yuan/ton, and in the North China market was 5950 yuan/ton [2] Industry Situation - The total styrene operating rate was 80.08%, an increase of 1.07%. The national inventory was 199,923 tons, an increase of 11,141 tons; the total inventory in the East China main port was 85,000 tons, an increase of 18,700 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port was 66,300 tons, an increase of 21,300 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of EPS was 59.72%, an increase of 6.09%; the operating rate of ABS was 66%, an increase of 2.03%; the operating rate of PS was 57.4%, a decrease of 1.3%; the operating rate of UPR was 30%, unchanged; the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 74.09%, unchanged [2] Industry News - From June 20th to 26th, China's styrene factory output was 366,800 tons, a 1.35% increase from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.08%, a 1.07% increase. The consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) was 257,000 tons, a 3.92% increase from the previous week. As of June 26th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene factories was 199,900 tons, a 5.90% increase from the previous cycle [2]