纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-08-26 纯苯去库而苯乙烯再度累库 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-121元/吨（-3）。纯苯港口库存13.80万吨（-0.60万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费164美元/吨 （-3美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费147美元/吨（-5美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差58.7美元/吨（-4.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯 现货-M2价差-20元/吨（-10元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1835元/吨（+5），酚酮生产利润-727元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润-204元/吨（-43）， 己二酸生产利润-1277元/吨（+55）。己内酰胺开工率91.86%（-1.86%），苯酚开工率78.00%（+1.00%），苯胺开工 率70.10%（-1.47%），己二酸开工率65.50%（+3.80%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差25元/吨（+28元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-251元/吨（-13元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存179000吨（+17500吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存84000吨（+7500吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率78.5%（+ ...

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-08-22 EB下游开工再度回升 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-110元/吨（+0）。纯苯港口库存14.40万吨（-0.20万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费173美元/吨 （+0美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费157美元/吨（-1美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差51.6美元/吨（-3.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯 现货-M2价差0元/吨（-10元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1845元/吨（-25），酚酮生产利润-701元/吨（+50），苯胺生产利润-204元/吨（-43）， 己二酸生产利润-1331元/吨（+5）。己内酰胺开工率91.86%（-1.86%），苯酚开工率78.00%（+1.00%），苯胺开工率 70.10%（-1.47%），己二酸开工率65.50%（+3.80%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差26元/吨（+31元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-298元/吨（+45元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存161500吨（+12700吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存76500吨（+7000吨），处于库存回建阶段。 苯乙烯开工率78.5%（+0.4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of pure benzene has marginally improved, but there are still contradictions between high - level hidden inventory and weak terminal consumption. The demand during the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" remains a key variable [3]. - The styrene market is generally loose, with new production capacity being continuously released. Although there are signs of marginal improvement, new production capacity and the weakening basis point to the problems of oversupply and difficulty in destocking [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Fundamentals - **Price**: On August 20, the styrene main contract closed up 0.82% at 7,285 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 10 (+54 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.37% at 6,205 yuan/ton [2]. - **Cost**: On August 20, Brent crude oil closed at 61.8 (-1.7 dollars/barrel), WTI crude oil closed at 65.8 (-0.8 dollars/barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 6,070 yuan/ton (-35 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene sample factory inventory was 20.9 tons (-0.3 tons), a 1.3% month - on - month destocking; Jiangsu port inventory was 14.9 tons (-1.0 tons), a 6.42% month - on - month destocking. Pure benzene port inventory was 14.6 tons (-1.7 tons), a 10.43% month - on - month destocking [2]. - **Supply**: A new styrene plant in Shandong was put into operation, and the overall supply remained stable. The weekly styrene output was 36.9 tons (+1.0 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 78.2% (+0.5%) [2]. - **Demand**: The capacity utilization rates of downstream 3S varied. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 58.1% (+14.4%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 71.1% (+0%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 56.7% (+1.7%). The EPS operating rate recovered, and the ABS and PS operating rates continued to increase [2]. 3.1.2 Views - **Pure Benzene**: The supply side has been running strongly recently. The supply has increased, and the demand shows structural differentiation. Although the supply - demand balance has marginally improved, there are still problems such as high - level hidden inventory and weak terminal consumption [3]. - **Styrene**: The market is generally loose, with new production capacity continuously released. The demand improvement is limited, and the basis weakening reflects the intensification of supply - demand mismatch and weakening market sentiment [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Data Monitoring - **Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices**: The styrene futures main contract increased by 0.82%, the pure benzene futures main contract increased by 0.37%, and the styrene basis decreased by 118.52% [6]. - **Styrene and Pure Benzene Output and Inventory**: Styrene output increased by 2.76%, pure benzene output decreased by 0.18%. Styrene and pure benzene inventories decreased to varying degrees [7]. - **Operating Rate**: The capacity utilization rates of some downstream products of pure benzene and styrene increased, such as the EPS capacity utilization rate increased by 14.41% [8]. 3.3 Industry News - China's shale cracking raw material supply is affected by trade and production capacity, pushing up naphtha costs. China is expected to increase naphtha imports to a record high in 2025 [9]. - The global diesel shortage supports refinery profits, having a structural impact on the crude oil and chemical chains [9]. - India is accelerating petrochemical expansion to counter China's dominant position [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - South Korean petrochemical companies may cut 2.7 - 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity, which has significantly boosted the downstream prices of domestic olefin derivatives. South Korean cracked pure benzene accounts for 3.5% of the total overseas pure benzene capacity, and the impact is limited. South Korean styrene accounts for 16% of overseas styrene capacity, which may support overseas styrene prices. However, both products still face significant inventory pressure, and the potential impact on EB supply is greater than that on BZ in terms of price spreads. [3] - The high - level pure benzene port inventory has slightly declined, and the pure benzene basis has recently shown signs of stabilization and a slight increase. There are scheduled maintenance works for South Korean aromatics in August - September, and the import pressure has not further increased. The overall downstream operating rate remains relatively high, and the demand is at a seasonal peak, driving the de - stocking of pure benzene, but the de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. For styrene, the port inventory has accumulated again, and the downstream still faces inventory pressure. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB Basis Structure, Inter - period Spreads - No specific data analysis provided, only mentions figures such as the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and EB main contract basis [9][13][19] 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene main contract basis is - 110 yuan/ton (- 23), and the styrene main contract basis is - 10 yuan/ton (- 64 yuan/ton). The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 331 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress. [1] - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 173 US dollars/ton (- 4 US dollars/ton), and pure benzene FOB South Korea processing fee is 158 US dollars/ton (- 4 US dollars/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea for pure benzene is 54.6 US dollars/ton (- 15.1 US dollars/ton). [1] 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rate - Pure benzene port inventory is 144,000 tons (- 2000 tons), and the operating rate of its downstream products such as caprolactam is 93.72% (+ 5.31%), phenol is 77.00% (+ 0.00%), aniline is 71.57% (- 1.89%), and adipic acid is 61.70% (+ 7.30%). [1] - Styrene East China port inventory is 161,500 tons (+ 12,700 tons), East China commercial inventory is 76,500 tons (+ 7000 tons), and the operating rate is 78.2% (+ 0.5%). [1] 4. Styrene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 98 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 102 yuan/ton (+ 5 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is - 46 yuan/ton (+ 20 yuan/ton). [2] - EPS operating rate is 58.08% (+ 14.41%), PS operating rate is 56.70% (+ 1.70%), and ABS operating rate is 71.10% (+ 0.00%). [2] 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit is - 1820 yuan/ton (- 25), phenol - acetone production profit is - 751 yuan/ton (+ 0), aniline production profit is - 161 yuan/ton (- 262), and adipic acid production profit is - 1336 yuan/ton (+ 50). [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Pure benzene port inventory continues to decline slightly, and its basis has stabilized and strengthened recently. From August to September, there are maintenance plans for aromatics in South Korea, and the import pressure has not increased further. The overall downstream operating rate remains high, and the demand is at a seasonal high, which drives the de - stocking of pure benzene, but the de - stocking range is expected to be limited. - For styrene, the port inventory did not continue to decline at the beginning of the week, and the port pickup volume did not continue to increase. Among the downstream products, the operating rates of EPS and PS have rebounded, and their inventory pressures have been relieved, while ABS still maintains a state of high inventory and low operating rate [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spread - Pure benzene's main basis is - 87 yuan/ton (+4), and the spot - M2 spread is 5 yuan/ton (+0). Styrene's main basis is 54 yuan/ton (+14) [1]. II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene's CFR China processing fee is 176 dollars/ton (+0), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 161 dollars/ton (+0). The profit of styrene's non - integrated production is - 327 yuan/ton (+10), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rate - Pure benzene port inventory is 14.40 tons (- 0.20), and styrene's East China port inventory is 161,500 tons (+12,700), in the inventory rebuilding stage. The operating rate of pure benzene downstream such as caprolactam is 93.72% (+5.31), and styrene's operating rate is 78.2% (+0.5) [1]. IV. Styrene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - Among styrene's downstream products, EPS production profit is 93 yuan/ton (- 160), PS production profit is - 107 yuan/ton (- 60), and ABS production profit is - 66 yuan/ton (+2). EPS operating rate is 58.08% (+14.41), PS operating rate is 56.70% (+1.70), and ABS operating rate is 71.10% (+0) [2]. V. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rate and Production Profit - For pure benzene's downstream products, caprolactam production profit is - 1795 yuan/ton (+0), phenol - acetone production profit is - 751 yuan/ton (- 62), aniline production profit is - 161 yuan/ton (- 262), and adipic acid production profit is - 1386 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. 4. Strategy - **Single - side**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards pure benzene and styrene. - **Basis and Inter - period**: Carry out positive arbitrage, buy near - month BZ paper goods and sell BZ2603 futures. - **Cross - variety**: Expand the BZN processing fee when it is low in the peak season. Hold a wait - and - see attitude towards the EB - BZ spread [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Pure benzene port inventory continued a slight decline, the pure benzene basis stabilized, there were maintenance plans for Korean aromatics in August - September, import pressure did not increase further, downstream comprehensive operation rate remained relatively high, demand was at a seasonal high, and inventory removal was driven, but the removal amplitude was expected to be limited [3] - For styrene, port inventory did not continue to decline at the beginning of the week, EB port pick - up volume did not continue to rise, EPS and PS operation rates rebounded, their inventory pressure was relieved, while ABS maintained a state of high inventory and low operation rate [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure benzene and EB's basis structure, inter - period spread - Analyzed pure benzene's basis, inter - period spread, and styrene's basis and inter - period spread through multiple figures, but no specific analysis content was provided in the text [9][16][20] 2. Pure benzene and styrene production profit, internal - external spread - Multiple figures showed the production profit and internal - external spread of pure benzene and styrene, such as naphtha processing fee, pure benzene FOB Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, etc., but no specific analysis content was provided in the text [22][25][34] 3. Pure benzene and styrene inventory, operation rate - Pure benzene port inventory continued to decline slightly, downstream demand was at a seasonal high, driving pure benzene inventory removal, but the removal amplitude was expected to be limited; styrene port inventory did not continue to decline at the beginning of the week, and it was in the inventory rebuilding stage [1][3] 4. Styrene downstream operation and production profit - EPS and PS operation rates rebounded, EPS production profit was 253 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton), PS production profit was - 47 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton), ABS operation rate remained unchanged, and its production profit was - 68 yuan/ton (-211 yuan/ton) [2] 5. Pure benzene downstream operation and production profit - Caprolactam operation rate was 93.72% (+5.31%), production profit was - 1795 yuan/ton (+5); phenol - acetone operation rate was 77.00% (+0.00%), production profit was - 689 yuan/ton (+0); aniline operation rate was 71.57% (-1.89%), production profit was - 161 yuan/ton (-262); adipic acid operation rate was 61.70% (+7.30%), production profit was - 1386 yuan/ton (+55) [1] Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see for pure benzene and styrene [4] - Basis and inter - period: Long BZ near - month paper cargo and short BZ2603 futures for positive spread [4] - Cross - variety: Expand the BZN processing fee on dips during the peak season. Wait and see for the EB - BZ spread [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - EB2509 dropped and then rebounded, closing at 7,230 yuan/ton. In the short - term, the domestic market has no new shutdown devices, and the impact of restarted and capacity - increased devices is expanding, with an expected increase in supply. The downstream industry has both shutdown and restarted devices, and the terminal demand lacks positive factors, so the styrene consumption is difficult to grow significantly. The supply - stronger - than - demand situation in the spot market is expected to continue, and the inventory pressure may continue to rise. In terms of cost, the supply - stronger - than - demand situation of crude oil continues, and the international oil price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The main contract of styrene is about to change. EB2509 is dominated by the delivery logic, with a short - term fluctuation range expected between 7,150 - 7,360 yuan/ton; EB2510 is supported by the peak season in September and maintenance expectations, and technically, attention should be paid to the support around 7,130 yuan/ton and the pressure around 7,380 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active styrene contract is 7,230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the trading volume is 148,790, down 79; the buying volume of the top 20 positions is 317,145 hands, up 15,287 hands; the 10 - month contract closing price is 7,248 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton; the position volume of the active contract is 167,851 hands, down 16,914 hands; the net buying volume of the top 20 positions is - 4,659 hands, down 17,718 hands; the selling volume of the top 20 positions is 334,863 hands, up 19,946 hands; the total number of warehouse receipts is 737 hands, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of styrene is 7,596 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; the FOB South Korea middle - price is 887 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR China middle - price is 897 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the Northeast region is 7,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the South China region is 7,430 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in the North China region is 7,325 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in the East China region is 7,280 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The CFR Northeast Asia middle - price of ethylene is 826 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia middle - price is 821 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; the CIF Northwest Europe middle - price is 856.5 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars/ton; the FD US Gulf price is 457 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars/ton; the spot price of pure benzene in Taiwan (CIF) is 744.67 US dollars/ton, down 0.14 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of pure benzene in the US Gulf is 267 cents/gallon, down 1 cent/gallon; the FOB price of pure benzene in Rotterdam is 719 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton; the market price of pure benzene in the South China market is 6,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price in the East China market is 6,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price in the North China market is 6,130 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton; the total styrene operating rate is 78.18%, up 0.45%; the national styrene inventory is 208,717 tons, down 2,738 tons [2] 产业情况 - The total inventory of styrene in the East China main port is 148,800 tons, down 10,200 tons; the trade inventory in the East China main port is 69,500 tons, up 3,000 tons [2] 下游情况 - The operating rate of EPS is 58.08%, up 14.41%; the operating rate of ABS is 71.1%, unchanged; the operating rate of PS is 56.4%, up 1.4%; the operating rate of UPR is 32%, up 2%; the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber is 72.1%, down 1.25% [2] Industry News - From August 8th to August 14th, the overall output of Chinese styrene plants was 369,100 tons, a 2.76% increase from the previous period; the plant capacity utilization rate was 78.18%, a 0.45% increase from the previous period. The consumption of the main downstream products (EPS, PS, ABS) of Chinese styrene was 263,200 tons, a 10.54% increase from the previous week. As of August 14th, the sample inventory of Chinese styrene plants was 208,700 tons, a 1.29% decrease from the previous period [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 8 HKD, corresponding to a P/E of 20x for 2025 and 16x for 2026 [4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 2.24 billion USD for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, driven by the continuous growth in the Asia-Pacific region [1]. - The adjusted EBITDA for the first half of 2025 reached 230 million USD, a year-on-year increase of 16.8%, benefiting from the higher revenue share from the Asia-Pacific region [2]. - The company is actively advancing its line control chassis technology, including line control steering and braking systems, with expectations of securing more orders in the second half of the year [3]. Revenue and Profitability - The company's gross margin improved by 1.5 percentage points year-on-year to 11.5%, with gross profit increasing by 22.7% to 260 million USD [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders surged by 304.5% year-on-year to 63.48 million USD, with a net profit margin of 2.8% [2]. - The Asia-Pacific region's revenue share increased by 2.3 percentage points to 30.6%, with a significantly higher EBITDA margin compared to North America and EMEASA [4]. Future Outlook - The company expects to achieve a record high in annual revenue, outperforming the market by 300-400 basis points, with a target of 5 billion USD in orders for the year [1]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 4.6 billion USD, 4.8 billion USD, and 5.1 billion USD, respectively, with net profits expected to grow significantly [4][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The downstream start - up of EB has rebounded. The port inventory of pure benzene continues to decline slightly, the futures premium narrows, the import pressure does not increase further, but the downstream demand drops from its peak, and the subsequent inventory removal amplitude of pure benzene is small with a still high absolute inventory value. For styrene, the port inventory enters the seasonal decline cycle, the downstream start - up rises rapidly, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of downstream procurement before the peak season [1][3] Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis of pure benzene is - 49 yuan/ton (+18), the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is 10 yuan/ton (-15 yuan/ton), and the spread between BZ2603 - BZ2605 inter - period should be reverse - arbitraged when it is high [1][4] - Styrene: The main basis of styrene is 67 yuan/ton (+19 yuan/ton), and the spread between EB2509 - 2510 inter - period should be reverse - arbitraged when it is high [1][4] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee of pure benzene is 188 dollars/ton (+3 dollars/ton), the FOB South Korea processing fee is 171 dollars/ton (+1 dollar/ton), and the US - South Korea spread is 76.8 dollars/ton (+3.0 dollars/ton). The production profits of downstream products vary, with the production profit of caprolactam at - 1830 yuan/ton (+15), that of phenol - acetone at - 689 yuan/ton (+0), that of aniline at - 161 yuan/ton (-262), and that of adipic acid at - 1517 yuan/ton (+36) [1] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 328 yuan/ton (-8 yuan/ton), and the EB - BZ spread should be narrowed when it is high [1][4] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory of pure benzene is 14.60 tons (-1.70 tons), and the operating rate of downstream products shows different trends, with the caprolactam operating rate at 93.72% (+5.31%), the phenol operating rate at 77.00% (+0.00%), the aniline operating rate at 71.57% (-1.89%), and the adipic acid operating rate at 61.70% (+7.30%) [1] - Styrene: The East China port inventory of styrene is 148,800 tons (-10,200 tons), the East China commercial inventory is 69,500 tons (+3,000 tons), and the operating rate is 78.2% (+0.5%) [1] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 218 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 58.08% (+14.41%) [2] - PS: The production profit is - 82 yuan/ton (-10 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 56.70% (+1.70%) [2] - ABS: The production profit is 127 yuan/ton (+42 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 71.10% (+0.00%) [2] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1830 yuan/ton (+15), and the operating rate is 93.72% (+5.31%) [1] - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 689 yuan/ton (+0), and the operating rate of phenol is 77.00% (+0.00%) [1] - Aniline: The production profit is - 161 yuan/ton (-262), and the operating rate is 71.57% (-1.89%) [1] - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1517 yuan/ton (+36), and the operating rate is 61.70% (+7.30%) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The listing of pure benzene futures and options on July 8 provides enhanced risk management tools for the upstream and downstream of the industry chain, which is crucial given China's position as the largest producer and consumer of pure benzene globally [1][2]. Industry Overview - China accounts for 39% of global pure benzene production capacity and 43% of apparent consumption in 2024, with East China being the largest production and consumption area [1]. - The production capacity concentration in China is moderate, with the top three companies holding nearly 40% of the market share, where Sinopec alone accounts for 17.6% [2]. Pricing and Sales Mechanisms - Different scale refineries have varying sales methods for pure benzene, with large refineries primarily using contracts and pricing based on Sinopec's East China price [2]. - Trade enterprises often reference prices from sources like Argus and Platts for their pure benzene procurement, with imports mainly from South Korea and Southeast Asia [3]. Market Conditions and Outlook - The pure benzene market is currently experiencing a downturn due to insufficient downstream demand, but a supply-demand increase is expected in the second half of the year with over 1 million tons of new capacity planned [7]. - Inventory levels for pure benzene and styrene have risen to higher levels this year, with expectations of a de-inventory trend in August, followed by a potential accumulation in September and October [8]. Production and Operational Insights - The production processes for pure benzene are diverse, with catalytic reforming and ethylene cracking being the most significant methods [5]. - Maintenance cycles for pure benzene facilities typically occur every three years, with minor repairs having a limited impact on the market [6]. Futures Market Participation - Companies are increasingly engaging in futures trading for hedging purposes, with a notable number of enterprises participating in the pure benzene futures market [11]. - The introduction of pure benzene futures and options has enriched the risk management tools available to industry players, enhancing market liquidity [12].