投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纯苯&苯乙烯周报】 海外汽油裂差走强，纯苯苯乙烯震荡偏强 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-24 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 苯乙烯：乙苯调油推动纯苯苯乙烯价格上行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏多 | 关于苯乙烯的经济性，苯乙烯与石脑油的价差约为200美元，苯乙烯与苯的价差为125美元/桶，价差小幅扩张，非一体化的生产利润依然是负值。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 截至2025年11月17日，江苏纯苯港口样本商业库存总量：14.7万吨，较上期库存11.3万吨累库3.4万吨，环比上升30.09%；较去年同期库存11.77万吨累库 2.93万吨，同比上升24.89%。供给端检修传闻有所增加，海外由于衍生品的低开工率，需求依然不佳。 | | 库存 | 中性 | 截至202 ...

能源化工 纯苯&苯乙烯日报 通惠期货•研发产品系列 2025 年 11 月 21 日 星期五 纯苯累库加速，苯乙烯再现分化 一、 日度市场总结 通惠期货研发部 （1）基本面 价格：11 月 20 日苯乙烯主力合约收涨 0.55%，报 6595 元/吨，基 差 20（+19 元/吨）；纯苯主力合约收涨 1.14%，报 5595 元/吨。 成本：11 月 20 日布油主力收盘 59.4 美元/桶（-1.3 美元/桶）， WTI 原油主力合约收盘 63.5 美元/桶（-1.4 美元/桶），华东纯苯现货报 价 5420 元/吨（+25 元/吨）。 苯乙烯港口库存 14.8 万吨（-2.7 万吨），环比去库 15.2%，苯乙烯 延续去库但仍高于往年。纯苯港口库存 14.7 万吨（+3.4 万吨），环比累 库 30.1%。 供应：苯乙烯开工率及供应环比小幅波动。目前，苯乙烯周产量 34.3 万吨（-0.1 万吨），工厂产能利用率 69.0%（-0.3%）。 需求：下游 3S 开工率整体需求回暖，EPS 产能利用率 56.3% （+4.6%），ABS 产能利用率 72.4%（+0.6%），PS 产能利用率 55.9% （+ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - For pure benzene, low US gasoline inventory supports Asian aromatics through gasoline blending. The arbitrage spread from South Korea to the US has been significantly repaired, potentially easing long - term Chinese arrival pressure, but short - term arrival pressure still exists, with rising port inventory and a weak basis. Domestic production has not further increased after an earlier rise, and downstream开工 remains low. Phenol开工 has increased significantly, while aniline and adipic acid开工 have declined, and styrene is in the maintenance period waiting for recovery at the end of the month [3]. - For styrene, port inventory continues to decline due to export boost and low domestic开工, but there is a resumption expectation at the end of November. Downstream开工 remains low, with EPS开工 rising from a low level but still in the off - season, and ABS and PS开工 slightly rising from a low level, with inventory pressure still existing for PS and ABS [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene basis and inter - period spreads include the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and pure benzene consecutive first - to - third contract spread [1][15]. - Figures related to EB basis and inter - period spreads include the EB main contract basis and EB consecutive first - to - third contract spread [20]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Production profit and spread figures for pure benzene and styrene include naphtha processing fee, pure benzene FOB South Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, styrene non - integrated device production profit, and various international price spreads of pure benzene and styrene, as well as their import profits [22][25][34]. 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Operating Rates - For pure benzene, the inventory figure is the East China port inventory, and the operating rate figure is the pure benzene operating rate. For styrene, inventory figures include East China port inventory, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory, and the operating rate figure is the styrene operating rate [40][42][45]. 4. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Downstream products of styrene include EPS, PS, and ABS. Figures cover their operating rates and production profits [51][53][54]. 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Downstream products of pure benzene include caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, and other related products. Figures cover their operating rates and production profits [60][63][72]. Strategies - Unilateral: None [4]. - Basis and Inter - Period: Conduct long - short inter - period positive arbitrage for EB2512 - EB2601 at low prices [4]. - Cross - Variety: Expand the spread of EB2512 - BZ2603 at low prices [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the concentrated arrival of pure benzene in China has led to a rapid increase in port inventories and a weakening of the basis. The domestic production start - up continues to rise, while the downstream start - up is weak. For styrene, port inventories continue to decline due to export boosts and low domestic start - up, but there is a resumption expectation at the end of November. Recently, the increase in pure benzene inventory and the decrease in styrene inventory are conducive to the short - term expansion of the EB - BZ spread [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spreads - Figures include pure benzene's main basis, main futures contract price, main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and the spread between the first and third contracts. Also, EB's main contract trend and basis, main contract basis, and the spread between the first and third contracts are presented [7][10][15] 2. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures cover naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated device production profits, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and FOB Korea, the difference between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, the difference between pure benzene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China, pure benzene import profits, styrene import profits, the difference between styrene FOB US Gulf and CFR China, and the difference between styrene FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [18][21][36] 3. Inventories and Start - up Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Figures show pure benzene's East China port inventory, start - up rate, styrene's East China port inventory, start - up rate, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [38][40][43] 4. Start - up and Production Profits of Styrene's Downstream - Figures present the start - up rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [49][51][52] 5. Start - up and Production Profits of Pure Benzene's Downstream - Figures include the start - up rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [58][64][82]

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-11-19 库存表现差异，EB-BZ价差回升 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-122元/吨（+5）。纯苯港口库存14.70万吨（+3.40万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费111美元/吨 （+10美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费96美元/吨（+9美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差137.7美元/吨（-3.0美元/吨）。华东纯 苯现货-M2价差-100元/吨（+15元/吨）。 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-1395元/吨（+200），酚酮生产利润-415元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润496元/吨（-63）， 己二酸生产利润-1286元/吨（+68）。己内酰胺开工率86.05%（+0.00%），苯酚开工率67.00%（-8.50%），苯胺开工 率80.17%（+2.43%），己二酸开工率62.00%（-3.60%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差35元/吨（-4元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润-281元/吨（+22元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存148300吨（-26500吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存87300吨（-14500吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙 烯开工率 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the pure benzene market, the lowest point of US refinery operations has passed, but US gasoline inventories are at a low level, and gasoline cracks continue to strengthen, which supports Asian aromatics for blending. The arbitrage spread from South Korea to the US has recovered but not opened up. The future arrival pressure in China may slow down, but in the short term, there is a concentrated arrival of pure benzene in China, and port inventories are rising faster. Domestic production operations continue to increase, while downstream operations are weak. Styrene maintenance is concentrated, waiting for recovery at the end of the month; phenol operations are dragged down by low operations of bisphenol A and PC; CPL operations remain at a low level, waiting for inventory reduction; aniline and adipic acid operations are fair [2]. - In the styrene market, port inventories continue to decline, partly due to increased exports and partly due to low domestic operations. However, there are expectations of resumption in late November. Attention should be paid to whether the maintenance period will be further extended. Downstream demand for pick-up remains stable, but downstream operations are still low. EPS continues to reduce operations during the off-season, while ABS and PS operations are at a low level. Inventories of EPS and PS have decreased, but ABS still faces inventory pressure [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB Basis Structure, Inter - Period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene basis and spreads include the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and pure benzene continuous first - continuous third contract spread. Figures related to EB include the EB main contract trend & basis, EB main contract basis, and EB continuous first - continuous third contract spread [7][12][16]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Figures cover various aspects such as naphtha processing fees, the difference between pure benzene FOB South Korea and naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated plant production profits, and differences between pure benzene FOB US Gulf and other regions, as well as import profits of pure benzene and styrene [18][21][30]. 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventories, Operating Rates - For pure benzene, figures show the East China port inventory and operating rate. For styrene, figures display the East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory, and operating rate [36][38][41]. 4. Styrene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures present the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [46][48][53]. 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Operating Rates and Production Profits - Figures include the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, as well as the production profits of related products such as PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [57][62][71].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of pure benzene and styrene. For pure benzene, due to the low refinery utilization rate in the US, strong gasoline crack spreads, and increased blending demand, the demand for Asian aromatics has risen, leading to an increase in the US pure benzene price. The arbitrage spread from South Korea to the US has been quickly repaired, and the pressure of overseas pure benzene flowing into China may ease. Domestic production utilization continues to rise, but downstream production utilization remains average. For styrene, the prices in Europe and the US have also strengthened, with a small increase in China's exports to Europe. The port inventory has continued to decline slightly, mainly driven by loss - induced production cuts, but there is an expectation of resuming production at the end of November. Attention should be paid to downstream demand performance [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Figures include pure benzene's main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and EB's main contract basis and inter - period spread, but specific data analysis is not detailed in the provided text [8][15][20] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Figures involve naphtha processing fees, pure benzene's FOB Korea - CFR Japan spread, styrene non - integrated production profits, and domestic - foreign spreads of pure benzene and styrene, but detailed data analysis is not given [22][25][40] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory and Production Utilization - Pure benzene's port inventory is 11.30 million tons (- 0.80 million tons), and its production utilization continues to rise. Styrene's port inventory is 174,800 tons (- 4,500 tons), and its production utilization is 69.3% (+ 2.3%), with an expectation of resuming production at the end of November [1][21][42] IV. Styrene's Downstream Production Utilization and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 209 yuan/ton (- 99 yuan/ton), with a production utilization of 51.63% (- 2.32%); PS production profit is 9 yuan/ton (- 49 yuan/ton), with a production utilization of 55.40% (+ 1.90%); ABS production profit is - 367 yuan/ton (- 53 yuan/ton), with a production utilization of 71.80% (+ 0.20%). EPS is in the off - season with reduced production, and ABS and PS production utilizations are still low [2][52][53] V. Pure Benzene's Downstream Production Utilization and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit is - 1,640 yuan/ton (- 70), with a production utilization of 86.05% (+ 0.00%); phenol - acetone production profit is - 390 yuan/ton (+ 0), with a production utilization of 67.00% (- 8.50%); aniline production profit is 496 yuan/ton (- 63), with a production utilization of 80.17% (+ 2.43%); adipic acid production profit is - 1,313 yuan/ton (- 63), with a production utilization of 62.00% (- 3.60%) [1][63][70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The downstream off - season shows weak performance. Pure benzene port inventory slightly declined, but its basis and processing fee continued to be weak. The domestic production start - up rate of pure benzene has bottomed out and rebounded, while downstream demand remains weak. Benzene styrene ports continued to reduce inventory slightly, with short - term low start - up but a resumption of work expected at the end of November. Attention should be paid to downstream demand, as the start - up of EPS has dropped rapidly, and the start - up of ABS and PS remains low. It is recommended to cautiously short - sell and hedge pure benzene and benzene styrene at high prices, and conduct reverse arbitrage for BZ2603 - BZ2605 at high prices [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spread - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 94 yuan/ton (+43), the pure benzene spot - M2 spread is - 65 yuan/ton (+25 yuan/ton), and the EB main contract basis is 64 yuan/ton (+74 yuan/ton) [1] II. Pure Benzene and Benzene Styrene Production Profits, Domestic and Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 84 dollars/ton (+1 dollar/ton), FOB Korea processing fee is 66 dollars/ton (+1 dollar/ton), and the US - Korea spread is 102.5 dollars/ton (+5.0 dollars/ton). Benzene styrene non - integrated production profit is - 434 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton) [1] III. Pure Benzene and Benzene Styrene Inventory, Start - up Rate - Pure benzene port inventory is 11.30 tons (- 0.80 tons), and the start - up rate is not clearly stated but shows a bottom - up trend. Benzene styrene East China port inventory is 174,800 tons (- 4,500 tons), commercial inventory is 101,800 tons (- 8,000 tons), and the start - up rate is 66.9% (+0.2%) [1] IV. Benzene Styrene Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 318 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton), start - up rate is 53.95% (- 8.30%); PS production profit is 48 yuan/ton (+40 yuan/ton), start - up rate is 53.50% (+1.50%); ABS production profit is - 280 yuan/ton (- 44 yuan/ton), start - up rate is 71.60% (- 0.50%) [2] V. Pure Benzene Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit is - 1,575 yuan/ton (+100), start - up rate is 86.05% (+0.00%); phenol - ketone production profit is - 390 yuan/ton (- 25), start - up rate is 75.50% (- 2.50%); aniline production profit is 559 yuan/ton (- 539), start - up rate is 77.74% (- 0.83%); adipic acid production profit is - 1,159 yuan/ton (- 3), start - up rate is 65.60% (+7.60%) [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Pure Benzene**: Pure benzene remains in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Although the absolute valuation is low, there is no fundamental support for a reversal. The short - term price has an emotional rebound driven by the overall recovery of the chemical sector, but the sustainability needs verification. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the future, and attention should be paid to changes in import rhythm and the recovery rhythm of downstream loads [2]. - **Styrene**: There are no significant short - term supply - demand contradictions for styrene, and the profit remains in a neutral range with a stable and slightly strong price performance. The current market sentiment is boosted by the rebound of the chemical ETF, but the fundamental improvement is limited, and the short - term market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to the restart rhythm of devices in December and the progress of downstream inventory reduction [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Market Summary - **Fundamentals** - **Price**: On November 10, the styrene main contract closed down 0.03% at 6315 yuan/ton with a basis of - 10 (- 18 yuan/ton); the pure benzene main contract closed flat at 5422 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5300 yuan/ton (- 15 yuan/ton) [2]. - **Cost**: On November 10, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 59.8 dollars/barrel (+ 0.3 dollars/barrel), and the WTI crude oil main contract closed at 63.6 dollars/barrel (+ 0.3 dollars/barrel) [2]. - **Inventory**: Styrene port inventory was 17.9 tons (- 1.4 tons), a 7.1% month - on - month decrease. Pure benzene port inventory was 12.1 tons (+ 3.6 tons), a 42.4% month - on - month increase [2]. - **Supply**: Styrene production and supply fluctuated slightly month - on - month. The weekly styrene output was 33.3 tons (+ 1 ton), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 66.9% (+ 0.2%) [2]. - **Demand**: The overall demand of downstream 3S has recovered. The EPS capacity utilization rate was 53.9% (- 8.3%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 71.6% (- 0.5%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 53.5% (+ 1.5%) [2]. Industry News - The threat of a 100% tariff on China by Trump has been cancelled; China is expected to resume "substantial" purchases of US soybeans; Beijing will postpone the implementation of rare - earth export controls for one year and re - examine the plan [8]. - The US inflation data in September was lower than expected, enhancing the prospect of the Fed's interest - rate cut [8]. - On the early morning of October 30, the Fed held an interest - rate meeting, and the upper limit of the interest rate was adjusted to 4% as expected [8]. Industry Chain Data Monitoring - **Price**: Data shows the prices and price changes of styrene and pure benzene in different regions and forms from November 7 to 10, 2025, including futures, spot, and spreads, as well as the prices of upstream Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and naphtha [5]. - **Output and Inventory**: From October 31 to November 7, 2025, the output of styrene in China increased from 32.3 tons to 33.3 tons (a 2.94% increase), and the output of pure benzene increased from 42.9 tons to 43.8 tons (a 2.08% increase). Styrene port and factory inventories decreased, while pure benzene port inventory increased significantly [6]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rates of pure benzene and styrene downstream products from October 31 to November 7, 2025, are presented, showing different changes in the utilization rates of various products such as styrene, EPS, ABS, etc. [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core View of the Report - Pure benzene port inventory decreased slightly, but its basis and processing fee continued to be weak. Domestic production capacity utilization of pure benzene has bottomed out and rebounded, with the impact of previous sanctions on refinery operations easing, and the pressure of incoming shipments increasing intermittently. Downstream demand remained weak, with styrene in concentrated maintenance, phenol production declining again, CPL production at a low level, and adipic acid production rebounding [2]. - Styrene ports continued to experience a slight reduction in inventory, with short - term low - level production capacity utilization, and maintenance only decreasing at the end of November. EB factory inventory further decreased, and port inventory began to decline. However, attention should be paid to downstream demand, as EPS production capacity utilization dropped rapidly, ABS and PS production capacity utilization remained low, and the inventory of the three major hard plastics only slightly decreased from high levels [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure, Inter - period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene basis and inter - period spreads include the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and pure benzene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [7][10]. - Figures related to EB basis and inter - period spreads include the EB main contract basis and the styrene continuous first - contract to continuous third - contract spread [15][18]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits, Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Figures related to production profits and spreads include styrene non - integrated production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea spread, naphtha processing fee, pure benzene FOB South Korea - naphtha CFR Japan spread, pure benzene import profit, and styrene import profit [21][24][33]. 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory, Production Capacity Utilization - For pure benzene, figures show the East China port inventory and production capacity utilization [39]. - For styrene, figures cover the East China port inventory, production capacity utilization, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [42][44]. 4. Styrene Downstream Production Capacity Utilization and Production Profits - Figures display the production capacity utilization and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [52][53][57]. 5. Pure Benzene Downstream Production Capacity Utilization and Production Profits - Figures show the production capacity utilization and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, and other downstream products [60][68][73]. Strategy - Unilateral: No strategy provided [3]. - Basis and Inter - period: Consider a long - short spread strategy for EB2512 - EB2601 at low prices and a short - long spread strategy for BZ2603 - BZ2605 at high prices [3]. - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [3].