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苹果周报:苹果去库速度尚可,好货价格坚挺-20260323
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 01:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The apple market maintains a differentiated pattern with the west being strong and the east being stable. Good - quality apples have better trading than medium and low - grade ones. The price of good - quality apples in Shaanxi has risen slightly due to supply shortages and pre - stocking by merchants. The market sales are slow, and downstream wholesalers have low enthusiasm for purchasing. Although the apple fundamentals are strong, the upward momentum of the May contract is insufficient, and the market will gradually focus on the new - season apple production [6][16] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Apple Spot Analysis - The apple market shows a pattern of "strong in the west and stable in the east". Good - quality apples have better trading. In Shaanxi, the supply of good - quality apples is tight, and the price has risen slightly. In Shandong, the market is stable, with slow cold - storage trading. In the sales areas, the overall sales are slow, and the wholesalers' purchasing enthusiasm is low. The main产区 prices: In Shandong, the prices are stable, with different prices for different grades and varieties. In Shaanxi, the trading of good - quality apples is good, and the price has increased [6] 3.2 Supply Analysis - As of March 12, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 33.72%, 2.29 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.01 percentage points this week, and the de - stocking rate is 39.65%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 39.42%, with a 1.55 - percentage - point decrease this week. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 29.57%, with a 2.21 - percentage - point decrease. In Gansu, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 27.72%, with a 2.12 - percentage - point decrease. As of March 11, 2026, the national main - producing areas' apple cold - storage inventory is 499.72 tons, a decrease of 27.82 tons from last week [11] 3.3 Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of morning arrival vehicles has slightly increased, with an average of 24 vehicles per day. The market prices of different varieties and specifications of apples are given. The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on March 12 is 7.76 yuan/kg, slightly down from last Friday but at a high level in recent years. The profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples in the 2025 - 2026 production season is about 0.35 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.05 yuan/jin from last week [14] 3.4 Trading Strategy - For the May contract, it is recommended to leave the market and wait and see. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [15][16] 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Apple Supply and Demand Situation**: Data on apple export, planting area, consumption, production, and deep - processing volume are presented [20] - **Inventory and Shipment**: Data on national and regional cold - storage inventory and shipment trends are provided [11][23] - **Price Difference and Basis**: Data on the basis of different months and price differences between different contracts are presented [28]