南华期货苹果产业周报 ——春节前备货能否驱动盘面进一步上行？ 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响苹果价格走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、03、04合约怎么走？春节前备货将在1月中开启，苹果即将面临春节的旺季考验，近几日产地苹果走货有 所好转，但同期竞对商品柑橘价格优势明显，车厘子价格也迎来新低，替代品对苹果需求有一定压制。03、 04合约受节前备货提振，短期偏强运行，但若旺季消费不及预期，节后苹果去库压力较大，淡季合约后续存 在回落的风险。 2、05又去何方？05合约最终可能会成为真正缺货的合约，由于入库量历史最低，且可交割果稀有，在经历春 节、清明、五一等多个节假日后，库存货源变的更为稀少，同时苹果硬度下降较快，可交割品稀缺性达到顶 峰。05合约跟随近月回落后则有出现一个安全垫价格，后续价格可能再创新高。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 03合约还有充足的2个月时间才会进行交割。市场当前重点关注春节旺季消费情况，由于双旦节日消费不 及预期，而今年春节较晚的情况下，1月份是消费的关键时间节点，最为消费最大的节日，如若春节消费仍不 及预期，则可能导致节后苹果价格迎来降价，03作为淡季合约面临市场考验。 ∗ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year, apple production has declined, the excellent fruit rate is poor, and preservation is more difficult. The market expects that the cold storage inventory data is likely to be low. The effective inventory is expected to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. However, due to large recent fluctuations, it is recommended to stand on the sidelines for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options trading [16]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Logic Analysis and Trading Strategy a. Spot Analysis - In Shandong and Shanxi, some apple sources are still being stored in cold storage, and ground trading is gradually ending. Inventory trading is limited. In the sales areas, it is still the off - season, and the trading atmosphere is light. The increasing supply of citrus squeezes the apple sales space. The prices in major producing areas vary. For example, in Shandong, the ground transaction price of late Fuji has different ranges for different sizes and grades; in Shaanxi, the出库 prices also vary by region and fruit quality [7]. b. Supply Analysis - As of November 20, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio is about 55.69%, 7.94 percentage points lower than the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 12.48%. This week, the national cold storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.18 percentage points, and the destocking rate was 0.32%. Shandong and Shaanxi have different inventory trends. The cold storage capacity ratio in Shandong increased by 0.57 percentage points, and in Shaanxi, it decreased by 0.08 percentage points. As of November 19, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold storage inventory was 773.16 million tons, an increase of 8.92 million tons from last week [12]. c. Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of morning arrival vehicles has little change. The market is mainly dominated by Gansu apple sources, and the sales of Yunnan smooth - skinned apples have slowed down. The enthusiasm of second - and third - level wholesalers for purchasing is not high. The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on November 20 was 7.18 yuan per kilogram, slightly lower than last Friday, and at a high level in recent years. The profit statistics of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples have been suspended [15]. d. Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: Apple production has declined this year, and the cold storage inventory peak is likely to be lower than last year. The apple fundamentals are strong. - Single - sided: Due to large recent fluctuations, it is recommended to stand on the sidelines. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to stand on the sidelines. - Options: It is recommended to stand on the sidelines [16]. 2. Weekly Data Tracking a. Apple Supply and Demand Situation - There are data on apple exports, planting areas, and consumption, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the summary part. b. Inventory and Shipment - There are trend charts of national and Shandong cold storage apple inventory and national cold storage apple shipment, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the summary part. c. Price Spread and Basis - There are data on 5 - month basis, 10 - month basis, 1 - 5 price spread, 5 - 10 price spread, and 10 - 1 price spread, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the summary part.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The price center of the Apple Futures October contract has oscillated upward, rising from around 7,600 - 7,700 yuan/ton to the current 7,800 - 8,000 yuan/ton. Low cold - storage apple inventory and high prices of early - maturing apples support the price [4][10]. - In August, the market is expected to trade on the impact of new - season apple prices on late - maturing Fuji prices, with a high probability of support. The downward space for the Apple Futures October contract is limited, and it is recommended to build long positions on dips [5][36]. - The overall trading strategy is to be bullish on dips for single - side trading and to wait and see for arbitrage [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Part 1: Preface Summary 1. Market Review - In July, apple prices remained high, with a slight decline in cold - storage Fuji prices at the end of July. The Apple Futures October contract price center oscillated upward. High prices of early - maturing apples are expected to support late - maturing Fuji prices. Shandong and Shaanxi apple prices are higher than last year [4][10]. 2. Market Outlook - Low inventory of this season's apples will support the opening prices of early - maturing apples like Gala. Uncertainty about the new - season apple yield is a potential positive factor for futures prices. The Apple Futures October contract is expected to have limited downward space in August [5]. 3. Strategy Recommendation - Single - side trading: Adopt a bullish - on - dips approach. Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] Part 2: Fundamental Situation 1. Market Review - In July, apple prices were high at first and then declined slightly. The price center of the Apple Futures October contract moved up. Apple prices are expected to remain relatively high in August with the large - scale listing of early - maturing apples [10]. 2. Low Apple Inventory - As of July 25, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 704,500 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease. In August, cold - storage apple inventory is expected to remain at a historically low level [13]. 3. New - Season Apple Expectations - Most early - maturing apple varieties' transaction prices are higher than last year. The new - season Shaanxi apple output may be lower than expected, and the overall new - season apple output may not change much compared to the old season. The initial purchase price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high but will decline later [18][20]. 4. Apple Demand in the Off - season - In July, cold - storage apple shipments were low, and terminal market demand was in the off - season. In August, cold - storage apple shipments and terminal daily arrivals are expected to remain low [21][22]. 5. Import and Export Situation - In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, while the import volume increased. In July, the export volume is expected to increase slightly, and the import volume is expected to decrease [28]. 6. Substitute Situation - In July, watermelon prices continued to fall, and the prices of six key - monitored fruits also declined. In August, the prices of these fruits are expected to decline further [31] Part 3: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - On the supply side, cold - storage inventory is at a low level, and new - season apples are gradually being listed. On the demand side, apple demand is expected to improve in mid - August. The low inventory of this season's apples and uncertain new - season yields support futures prices, and it is recommended to build long positions on dips [34][36]