1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The apple market maintains a differentiated pattern with the west being strong and the east being stable. Good - quality apples have better trading than medium and low - grade ones. The price of good - quality apples in Shaanxi has risen slightly due to supply shortages and pre - stocking by merchants. The market sales are slow, and downstream wholesalers have low enthusiasm for purchasing. Although the apple fundamentals are strong, the upward momentum of the May contract is insufficient, and the market will gradually focus on the new - season apple production [6][16] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Apple Spot Analysis - The apple market shows a pattern of "strong in the west and stable in the east". Good - quality apples have better trading. In Shaanxi, the supply of good - quality apples is tight, and the price has risen slightly. In Shandong, the market is stable, with slow cold - storage trading. In the sales areas, the overall sales are slow, and the wholesalers' purchasing enthusiasm is low. The main产区 prices: In Shandong, the prices are stable, with different prices for different grades and varieties. In Shaanxi, the trading of good - quality apples is good, and the price has increased [6] 3.2 Supply Analysis - As of March 12, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio is about 33.72%, 2.29 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The national cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.01 percentage points this week, and the de - stocking rate is 39.65%. In Shandong, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 39.42%, with a 1.55 - percentage - point decrease this week. In Shaanxi, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 29.57%, with a 2.21 - percentage - point decrease. In Gansu, the cold - storage capacity ratio is 27.72%, with a 2.12 - percentage - point decrease. As of March 11, 2026, the national main - producing areas' apple cold - storage inventory is 499.72 tons, a decrease of 27.82 tons from last week [11] 3.3 Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of morning arrival vehicles has slightly increased, with an average of 24 vehicles per day. The market prices of different varieties and specifications of apples are given. The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on March 12 is 7.76 yuan/kg, slightly down from last Friday but at a high level in recent years. The profit of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples in the 2025 - 2026 production season is about 0.35 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.05 yuan/jin from last week [14] 3.4 Trading Strategy - For the May contract, it is recommended to leave the market and wait and see. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. For options, it is recommended to wait and see [15][16] 3.5 Weekly Data Tracking - **Apple Supply and Demand Situation**: Data on apple export, planting area, consumption, production, and deep - processing volume are presented [20] - **Inventory and Shipment**: Data on national and regional cold - storage inventory and shipment trends are provided [11][23] - **Price Difference and Basis**: Data on the basis of different months and price differences between different contracts are presented [28]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rise in apple futures prices in 2025 was a result of the re - pricing of systematic risks on the supply side, which was the result of the superposition and resonance of the "inventory - quality - system" triple mechanism. The pricing core of apple futures will be long - term anchored to the high - quality fruit rate, storage quality, and availability of delivery products, rather than the total output. In 2026, apple futures will show a high - level oscillation in the first half of the year and may experience differentiated adjustments in the second half due to supply - demand and storage factors, continuing the structural feature of "tight supply of high - quality apples and slow sales of ordinary apples" [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Apple Futures Price Trends - **Since listing to 2025**: Apple futures prices have fluctuated sharply, showing cyclical characteristics related to production and quality. From 2017 to 2018, prices were affected by seasonality and supply expectations; from 2018 to 2021, they entered a bear market due to factors like high inventory and increased production; from 2021 to 2024, prices fluctuated widely; in 2025, prices oscillated upward [9][13][14]. - **2025**: The price showed a unilateral upward trend, with the main contract breaking through 9,000 yuan/ton. Supply - side issues such as production and quality decline, demand - side factors like festival - driven short - term demand, and policy and market sentiment all contributed to the price increase [21]. 2. Apple Supply Situation - **Production**: In 2025, extreme weather in major apple - producing areas affected production. The estimated national apple production for the 2025/26 season was 4,800 million tons, a slight 3% increase year - on - year, but the high - quality fruit rate decline was the key factor [34]. - **High - quality fruit rate**: The high - quality fruit rate in 2025 decreased significantly, with regional differences. The supply of high - quality apples was tight, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction [41]. - **Inventory**: As of February 27, 2026, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 5.5292 million tons, lower than the same period last year. The effective inventory was further reduced, and the market showed a pattern of "low inventory supporting high prices and quality differentiation intensifying market polarization" [42][46]. 3. Apple Consumption Situation - The consumption of apples in the 2025/26 season was stable but weak, facing challenges in growth due to factors such as slow population and income growth. The arrival of apples in major markets did not show a significant increase. The "consumption downgrade" and intense competition in the fruit market restricted apple consumption, but the price increase of substitute fruits might stimulate apple consumption [47][49][53]. 4. Seasonal Factors of Apples - Apples are a storable fruit. Their consumption combines timely and storage - based consumption. The peak consumption periods are in autumn when new apples are on the market and in the first half of the year when inventory apples are sold. Festival effects also impact apple consumption. The probability of price increases is higher in February and April, and the probability of price decreases is higher in March, May, November, and December [57][61]. 5. Outlook for 2026 - **First half**: Apple futures are likely to maintain high - level oscillation and are prone to rising. In the first quarter, festival demand and low inventory support prices, but there may be short - term callbacks. In the second quarter, the market faces the off - season, but high - quality apples' prices remain resilient [62][64]. - **Second half**: In the third quarter, storage risks may suppress prices, and the market will be in a weak - oscillation pattern. In the fourth quarter, the market will be dominated by new - season production expectations, and festival - driven demand may boost prices [65][67]. 6. Apple Options Market Analysis - For upstream enterprises worried about price drops, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options to collect premiums. For downstream enterprises worried about price increases, it is recommended to buy at - the - money call options during price corrections to lock in procurement costs [68].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The core contradictions affecting apple prices include the trends of 03 and 04 contracts and the direction of the 05 contract. The 03 and 04 contracts may be boosted by pre - Spring Festival stocking but face the risk of decline if the peak - season consumption is below expectations. The 05 contract may become a truly short - supply contract and may hit a new high after a follow - up decline [2]. - The near - term trading logic of the 03 contract focuses on Spring Festival consumption. If it is below expectations, the post - festival apple price may drop. The far - term trading logic of the 05 contract is based on pre - holiday stocking expectations and the shortage of deliverable goods, but the quality and hardness issues will continue to affect it [3][4]. - The apple market shows a short - term strong upward trend, with the near - month contracts breaking previous highs, especially the 05 contract. The current disk presents a Contango structure, and the long - position of profitable seats increased last week [7]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The 03 and 04 contracts are affected by pre - Spring Festival stocking, but substitutes suppress apple demand. If peak - season consumption is poor, there will be high post - festival de - stocking pressure. The 05 contract may face a shortage after multiple holidays, and its price may hit a new high after a decline [2]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The market shows a short - term strong upward trend. The 05 contract has a larger increase, and the disk is in a Contango structure. The net long - position of profitable seats increased by 1006 hands to 5508 hands last week [7]. - The basis strategy is difficult to formulate due to the difficulty in determining the spot target, and the month - spread strategy suggests waiting and seeing [8]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range of apples is 9200 - 10000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.5% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 57.8% [9]. - For inventory management, when worried about a high - yield of new apples and low purchase prices, enterprises can short apple futures and sell call options. For procurement management, when worried about high apple purchase prices, enterprises can buy apple futures and sell put options [9]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - As of January 7, 2026, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 720.90 million tons, a decrease of 12.66 million tons from last week, with a slightly faster de - stocking speed but still lower than the same period last year [12]. - As of January 8, 2026, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 51.13%, 4.92% lower than the same period last year. The cold - storage capacity ratio decreased by 2.18% in the past two weeks, and the de - stocking rate was 8.48% [12]. - In the late Fuji apple producing areas, the number of inquiring merchants increased slightly this week. Fruit farmers' shipments were concentrated in Gansu and Liaoning, and the overall shipment volume was small with a weak and stable price [12]. - The number of vehicles in the three major wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased compared with last week. Market sales slowed down after New Year's Day, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm declined [12][13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Information - The weekly Thursday inventory data from Zhuochuang and Ganglian [16] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Last week, apple futures rose strongly after a previous correction. The position of the main 05 contract decreased seasonally but increased this week, still lower than last year's level. The net long - position of profitable seats increased by 1006 hands to 5508 hands. Technically, the 05 contract is short - term strong but faces upper pressure [16]. 3.1.2 Basis and Month - Spread Structure - The apple basis structure is complex due to inconsistent apple quality each year and frequent changes in futures delivery rules. The 3 - 5 spread has strengthened since December, driven by the near - month delivery logic, but whether it will further strengthen is uncertain. The 03 contract shows a stronger trend [18]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Apple profits mainly include planting and storage profits. Short - term market attention is on storage profits, which are closely related to the opening price. This year, with more poor - quality apples and fewer high - quality ones, storage faces great challenges [20]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Affected by spring hot - dry winds and rainy weather during the harvest period, this year's apple production and quality have significantly declined. The estimated total apple production in 2025 is about 34 million tons, a reduction of 8% (3 million tons) compared with last year. The current cold - storage inventory is about 10% lower than the same period last year, and the effective inventory may be even lower [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This year, apple production has declined, the excellent fruit rate is poor, and preservation is more difficult. The market expects that the cold storage inventory data is likely to be low. The effective inventory is expected to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. However, due to large recent fluctuations, it is recommended to stand on the sidelines for single - sided trading, arbitrage, and options trading [16]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Logic Analysis and Trading Strategy a. Spot Analysis - In Shandong and Shanxi, some apple sources are still being stored in cold storage, and ground trading is gradually ending. Inventory trading is limited. In the sales areas, it is still the off - season, and the trading atmosphere is light. The increasing supply of citrus squeezes the apple sales space. The prices in major producing areas vary. For example, in Shandong, the ground transaction price of late Fuji has different ranges for different sizes and grades; in Shaanxi, the出库 prices also vary by region and fruit quality [7]. b. Supply Analysis - As of November 20, 2025, the national cold storage inventory ratio is about 55.69%, 7.94 percentage points lower than the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 12.48%. This week, the national cold storage capacity ratio decreased by 0.18 percentage points, and the destocking rate was 0.32%. Shandong and Shaanxi have different inventory trends. The cold storage capacity ratio in Shandong increased by 0.57 percentage points, and in Shaanxi, it decreased by 0.08 percentage points. As of November 19, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold storage inventory was 773.16 million tons, an increase of 8.92 million tons from last week [12]. c. Demand Analysis - In the Guangdong Chalong market, the number of morning arrival vehicles has little change. The market is mainly dominated by Gansu apple sources, and the sales of Yunnan smooth - skinned apples have slowed down. The enthusiasm of second - and third - level wholesalers for purchasing is not high. The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits on November 20 was 7.18 yuan per kilogram, slightly lower than last Friday, and at a high level in recent years. The profit statistics of storage merchants for Qixia 80 first - and second - grade apples have been suspended [15]. d. Trading Strategy - Trading Logic: Apple production has declined this year, and the cold storage inventory peak is likely to be lower than last year. The apple fundamentals are strong. - Single - sided: Due to large recent fluctuations, it is recommended to stand on the sidelines. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to stand on the sidelines. - Options: It is recommended to stand on the sidelines [16]. 2. Weekly Data Tracking a. Apple Supply and Demand Situation - There are data on apple exports, planting areas, and consumption, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the summary part. b. Inventory and Shipment - There are trend charts of national and Shandong cold storage apple inventory and national cold storage apple shipment, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the summary part. c. Price Spread and Basis - There are data on 5 - month basis, 10 - month basis, 1 - 5 price spread, 5 - 10 price spread, and 10 - 1 price spread, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the summary part.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The price center of the Apple Futures October contract has oscillated upward, rising from around 7,600 - 7,700 yuan/ton to the current 7,800 - 8,000 yuan/ton. Low cold - storage apple inventory and high prices of early - maturing apples support the price [4][10]. - In August, the market is expected to trade on the impact of new - season apple prices on late - maturing Fuji prices, with a high probability of support. The downward space for the Apple Futures October contract is limited, and it is recommended to build long positions on dips [5][36]. - The overall trading strategy is to be bullish on dips for single - side trading and to wait and see for arbitrage [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Part 1: Preface Summary 1. Market Review - In July, apple prices remained high, with a slight decline in cold - storage Fuji prices at the end of July. The Apple Futures October contract price center oscillated upward. High prices of early - maturing apples are expected to support late - maturing Fuji prices. Shandong and Shaanxi apple prices are higher than last year [4][10]. 2. Market Outlook - Low inventory of this season's apples will support the opening prices of early - maturing apples like Gala. Uncertainty about the new - season apple yield is a potential positive factor for futures prices. The Apple Futures October contract is expected to have limited downward space in August [5]. 3. Strategy Recommendation - Single - side trading: Adopt a bullish - on - dips approach. Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] Part 2: Fundamental Situation 1. Market Review - In July, apple prices were high at first and then declined slightly. The price center of the Apple Futures October contract moved up. Apple prices are expected to remain relatively high in August with the large - scale listing of early - maturing apples [10]. 2. Low Apple Inventory - As of July 25, 2025, the national main - producing area apple cold - storage inventory was 704,500 tons, a significant year - on - year decrease. In August, cold - storage apple inventory is expected to remain at a historically low level [13]. 3. New - Season Apple Expectations - Most early - maturing apple varieties' transaction prices are higher than last year. The new - season Shaanxi apple output may be lower than expected, and the overall new - season apple output may not change much compared to the old season. The initial purchase price of late - maturing Fuji is expected to be high but will decline later [18][20]. 4. Apple Demand in the Off - season - In July, cold - storage apple shipments were low, and terminal market demand was in the off - season. In August, cold - storage apple shipments and terminal daily arrivals are expected to remain low [21][22]. 5. Import and Export Situation - In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples decreased month - on - month and year - on - year, while the import volume increased. In July, the export volume is expected to increase slightly, and the import volume is expected to decrease [28]. 6. Substitute Situation - In July, watermelon prices continued to fall, and the prices of six key - monitored fruits also declined. In August, the prices of these fruits are expected to decline further [31] Part 3: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - On the supply side, cold - storage inventory is at a low level, and new - season apples are gradually being listed. On the demand side, apple demand is expected to improve in mid - August. The low inventory of this season's apples and uncertain new - season yields support futures prices, and it is recommended to build long positions on dips [34][36]