苹果市场结构性分化

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格林大华期货苹果季度报告
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 11:39
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a quarterly report on apples by Green大华 Futures [1] - The report is dated September 30, 2025 [4] Group 2: Price Information - In September, apple futures prices were pulled by low demand and new - season production expectations, showing a volatile and slightly upward trend [7] - Current apple spot prices vary by variety and region. For example, inventory paper - bagged late Fuji 80 and above is 3.00 - 4.00 yuan/jin (piece - red, first and second - grade), and in Shaanxi, paper - bagged Gala 70 starting semi - commodity is about 4.80 yuan/jin (high large - fruit ratio) [11] - The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits is in a seasonal upward stage, while the wholesale price of Fuji apples has a slight decline [20][21] Group 3: Inventory Situation - As of September 26, 2025, the total remaining cold - storage apples in the country is 12.18 tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. Western regions are in the large - scale bag - removing stage, and Shandong is in a trading gap period [14] Group 4: Downstream Market - Recently, the total number of apple trucks arriving at Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao is average, with 43 trucks this week. The number of trucks arriving at Guangdong Chalong Market in the morning has slightly increased compared to last week, with an average of 15.60 trucks per day. Apples are still affected by the sales of seasonal fruits [17] Group 5: Market Structure and Outlook - The current apple market shows a structural differentiation. The double - festival stocking is ending. New - harvested Fuji in the west is listed, with high - quality fruit prices high, while the eastern inventory old Fuji has weak prices. The market expects the opening price of new Fuji to be stronger in the west and weaker in the east [25] - The apple futures market continues the strong and volatile trend. Due to multiple adverse factors during the growth cycle, the high - quality fruit rate is low. Before the quality of late - maturing Fuji is clear, the futures market will remain in a strong and volatile pattern [25] Group 6: Factors to Watch - Key factors to watch include the impact of extreme climate during the new - fruit growth period and the year - on - year change in the number of new - fruit baggings [27]