Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating provided in the report Core View of the Report - Considering the poor sales of apples in the distribution areas, the spot price remains weakly stable. Affected by rainfall, the quality in most production areas has declined, and the proportion of high - quality fruits is expected to decrease. The prices of high - quality and poor - quality fruits may show a significant divergence in the future. It is recommended to temporarily observe the Apple 2601 contract in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the apple futures main contract is 8633 yuan/ton, with a net increase of 770; the main contract position is 6580 hands, and the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is 114,672 hands, with an increase of 12,291 hands [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of apples in Gansu Jingning, Shandong Yiyuan, Shaanxi Luochuan, and Shandong Yantai Qixia are 4 yuan/jin, 2.3 yuan/jin, 4.2 yuan/jin, and 3.7 yuan/jin respectively, with no change [2] Upstream Situation - The annual national apple output is 5128.51 million tons; the weekly apple wholesale price is 9.77 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.01 yuan/kg; the weekly average wholesale price of Fuji apples is 9.28 yuan/kg, with a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg; the total national apple cold - storage inventory is 12.18 million tons, with a decrease of 4.14 million tons; the weekly storage capacity ratios of Shandong and Shaanxi apples are 0.03 and 0 respectively, with a decrease of 0.01 for Shandong; the monthly apple export volume is 70,000 tons, with an increase of 20,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import amount of fresh and dried fruits and nuts is 645.5 million US dollars, and the monthly apple export amount is 69.739 million US dollars, with a decrease of 153.3065 million US dollars; the weekly profit of first - and second - grade paper - bag apple 80 storage merchants is 0.3 yuan/jin, with no change [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly average wholesale prices of tangerines, bananas, and watermelons are 7.89 yuan/kg, 4.01 yuan/kg, and 5.6 yuan/kg respectively. The prices of tangerines and watermelons have decreased by 0.44 yuan/kg and 0.08 yuan/kg respectively, while the price of bananas has increased by 0.18 yuan/kg. The daily average number of incoming trucks in the morning at the Guangdong Jiangmen, Xiaqiao, and Chalong wholesale markets is 15, 20, and 31 respectively, with changes of - 1.2, - 0.2, and - 0.8 respectively [2] Option Market - The implied volatilities of at - the - money call and put options for apples are 25.75% and 25.76% respectively, with decreases of 0.36% and 0.35% respectively [2] Industry News - Affected by rainy weather, the quality of late - Fuji apples in the production areas has declined significantly, with problems such as water - cracking in Shaanxi and pit - rust in Shandong being prominent. In Shandong Mengyin, it is difficult for apples to color, and there are not many red late - Fuji apples. Due to poor sales during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, most purchasers are waiting and watching, with low enthusiasm for purchasing, and the local price shows a weak and stable trend. Late - maturing Fuji apples in Shaanxi and Gansu production areas are gradually being harvested, but the supply is limited due to rainfall [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a quarterly report on apples by Green大华 Futures [1] - The report is dated September 30, 2025 [4] Group 2: Price Information - In September, apple futures prices were pulled by low demand and new - season production expectations, showing a volatile and slightly upward trend [7] - Current apple spot prices vary by variety and region. For example, inventory paper - bagged late Fuji 80 and above is 3.00 - 4.00 yuan/jin (piece - red, first and second - grade), and in Shaanxi, paper - bagged Gala 70 starting semi - commodity is about 4.80 yuan/jin (high large - fruit ratio) [11] - The average wholesale price of 6 key - monitored fruits is in a seasonal upward stage, while the wholesale price of Fuji apples has a slight decline [20][21] Group 3: Inventory Situation - As of September 26, 2025, the total remaining cold - storage apples in the country is 12.18 tons, at the lowest level in the past five years. Western regions are in the large - scale bag - removing stage, and Shandong is in a trading gap period [14] Group 4: Downstream Market - Recently, the total number of apple trucks arriving at Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao is average, with 43 trucks this week. The number of trucks arriving at Guangdong Chalong Market in the morning has slightly increased compared to last week, with an average of 15.60 trucks per day. Apples are still affected by the sales of seasonal fruits [17] Group 5: Market Structure and Outlook - The current apple market shows a structural differentiation. The double - festival stocking is ending. New - harvested Fuji in the west is listed, with high - quality fruit prices high, while the eastern inventory old Fuji has weak prices. The market expects the opening price of new Fuji to be stronger in the west and weaker in the east [25] - The apple futures market continues the strong and volatile trend. Due to multiple adverse factors during the growth cycle, the high - quality fruit rate is low. Before the quality of late - maturing Fuji is clear, the futures market will remain in a strong and volatile pattern [25] Group 6: Factors to Watch - Key factors to watch include the impact of extreme climate during the new - fruit growth period and the year - on - year change in the number of new - fruit baggings [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 1.55% on a weekly basis. According to preliminary estimates based on bagging volume survey data, the national apple production in the new season is expected to be 37.3664 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.35%. As of July 23, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 704,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 101,500 tons. The current inventory is at a five - year low. The purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, supporting the price to fluctuate strongly. However, the large - scale listing of summer fruits has impacted apple demand, and the potential increase in new - season apple production may restrict price growth. The upper resistance level is at the previous high of 8,140 yuan/ton. It is recommended to hold long positions in the Apple 2510 contract cautiously and take profits at high levels [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 1.55% this week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The estimated national apple production in the new season is 37.3664 million tons, an increase of 859,300 tons or 2.35% compared to the 2024 - 2025 production season. As of July 23, 2025, the cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was 704,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 101,500 tons. The inventory is at a five - year low. The purchase price of early - maturing varieties has increased slightly year - on - year, but the large - scale listing of summer fruits impacts demand, and potential production growth may restrict price increases. The upper resistance is at 8,140 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions in the Apple 2510 contract cautiously and take profits at high levels [6]. - **Future Trading Alerts**: Monitor de - stocking rate, consumption, and new - crop production [7]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1. Futures Market - The price of Apple Futures 2510 rose by 1.55% this week. As of the end of the week, the net long position of the top 20 in apple futures was 6,702 lots, and the number of apple futures warehouse receipts was 0 [10][16]. 3.2.2. Spot Market - As of July 25, 2025, the mainstream price of 80 and above first - and second - grade farmer - sourced bagged Red Fuji apples in Qixia, Shandong was 4 yuan/jin; the price of bagged 75 and above Fuji apples in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.4 yuan/jin [19]. 3.3. Industry Situation and Options 3.3.1. Supply Side - As of July 23, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 704,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 101,500 tons. The de - stocking speed was similar to last week and basically the same as last year. The storage capacity ratio in Shandong was 11.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03%; in Shaanxi, it was 3.65%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.98%; in Gansu, it was 2.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.92%, and the sales in Gansu were sporadic [26]. 3.3.2. Demand Side - **Arrival Volume at Wholesale Markets**: As of July 25, the average daily morning arrival of trucks at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong decreased. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0.7 yuan/jin [30]. - **Wholesale Price**: As of July 18, 2025, the average wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.89 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 2.38%; the average wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.75 yuan/kg, with no week - on - week change [34]. - **Substitutes**: As of July 18, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of five fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, tangerines, pears, and watermelons) was 7.32 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14% [38]. - **Export Volume**: In June 2023, China's fresh apple exports totaled 40,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.6% [41]. 3.3.3. Options Market - No detailed content provided other than the topic of the average implied volatility of at - the - money apple options this week [42]. 3.4. Relationship between Futures and Stocks - The report presents the price - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit, but no specific analysis is provided [44].