Report Industry Investment Rating No information is provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Global Soybean Market**: The US Department of Agriculture's August report unexpectedly lowered the US soybean planting area, leading to a decrease in the new - crop US soybean production both month - on - month and year - on - year, but the decline is limited and difficult to raise the price center. South American old - crop soybeans had a good harvest, and the new - crop Brazilian soybean production is expected to increase year - on - year. The global soybean supply situation is optimistic, but the Sino - US trade tariff issue provides cost support for domestic soybean meal [4]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal Market**: In the short term, the domestic soybean supply is sufficient, and soybean meal inventory is expected to accumulate until the end of September. The agreement to import soybean meal from Argentina restricts the speculation space for far - month contracts. The feed consumption of downstream livestock and poultry has different trends, and the low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal stimulates the substitution of soybean meal for rapeseed meal. The short - term fundamentals are slightly bullish, but the subsequent harvest pressure may put pressure on prices. Soybean meal is expected to maintain a wide - range market, and caution is needed when going long [5]. - **Global Rapeseed Market**: The new - season global rapeseed production is recovering, with a significant increase in Canada's rapeseed production. The harvest pressure of new - season rapeseed is gradually emerging [7]. - **Domestic Rapeseed Meal Market**: The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts imports, but Australian rapeseed may be a supplement. The high port granular rapeseed meal inventory and low spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal suppress the price. Rapeseed meal is expected to be weak in the short term [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Performance in August - **Soybean Meal**: It first rose and then fell. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed and the unexpected reduction in US soybean planting area pushed up the price, but then it fell back due to sufficient supply and other factors [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It also first rose and then fell. The anti - dumping preliminary ruling on Canadian rapeseed pushed up the price, but then it declined due to high inventory and other factors [13]. 2. US Soybean Supply and Demand - **2025/26 New - Crop**: The planting area was unexpectedly reduced by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, and the production was reduced by 43 million bushels to 4.292 billion bushels. The export volume was reduced by 40 million bushels to 1.705 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was reduced by 20 million bushels to 290 million bushels [14]. 3. South American Soybean Supply and Demand - **Brazil**: The 8 - month report maintained the estimates of old and new - crop data in July. The export premium of Brazilian soybeans to China is expected to remain firm [15]. - **Argentina**: In the 2024/25 season, the production was increased by 1 million tons to 50.9 million tons, and in the 2025/26 season, the export volume was increased by 800,000 tons to 5.8 million tons [18]. 4. Crop Progress - **US Soybeans**: As of August 24, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate was 69%, the pod - setting rate was 89%, and the defoliation rate was 4% [20]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The 2024/25 production is expected to reach 169.657 million tons, with an increase of 14.8% year - on - year, and the 2025/26 production is expected to reach 176.5 million tons, with an increase of 3% year - on - year [21][22]. - **Argentine Soybeans**: The 2024/25 production is expected to be 50.2 million tons, with an upward revision of 2% [23]. 5. Global Rapeseed Supply and Demand - **Global**: The 8 - month USDA report showed that the global rapeseed production increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [27]. - **Canada**: The production in 2025/26 is expected to be 19.25 million tons, with a slight increase year - on - year [28]. - **EU**: The production in 2025/26 is expected to be 18.539 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 11.09% [29]. 6. Canadian Rapeseed Situation - **Weather and Exports**: In Manitoba, there was sporadic rainfall and strong convective weather. As of August 17, the export volume decreased to 90,800 tons, and the commercial inventory was 793,400 tons [41]. - **Anti - Dumping**: Since August 14, 2025, the margin ratio for Canadian companies has been 75.8% [42]. 7. Domestic Market Conditions - **Soybean Imports**: In July 2025, China imported 11.666 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 598,000 tons from June and an increase of 1.813 million tons from July 2024 [45]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: As of August 22, the national port soybean inventory was 8.898 million tons, and the national oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 1.0533 million tons [48][53]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Imports**: In July 2025, the rapeseed import volume was 176,000 tons, and the low - erucic - acid rapeseed oil cake import volume was 154,628.215 tons [59][62]. - **Feed Consumption**: In July 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 5.5% [75]. - **Livestock and Poultry Farming**: The profit of pig farming declined in August, the profit of laying - hen farming fluctuated slightly, and the profit of white - feather broiler farming remained profitable [85][88].