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顺丰控股(002352):2025年半年报点评:多元化布局下增长有韧性,期待利润率修复带来业绩弹性
Guohai Securities· 2025-09-03 13:03
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][18]. Core Views - The company demonstrates resilient growth under diversified operations, with expectations for profit margin recovery to enhance earnings elasticity [2][14][15]. - The company has achieved a year-on-year revenue increase of 9.26% in H1 2025, reaching 1468.58 billion yuan, and a net profit increase of 19.37%, totaling 57.38 billion yuan [6][12]. - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on cost reduction and operational efficiency improvements through multi-network integration and operational model transformation [14][15]. Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company reported a gross margin of 13.22%, a decrease of 0.64 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin increased to 3.91%, up 0.33 percentage points [8][11]. - The company processed 7.813 billion parcels in H1 2025, reflecting a 25.73% increase year-on-year, although the average revenue per parcel decreased by 12.32% to 13.97 yuan [7][12]. - The company’s revenue from various segments showed robust growth, with express delivery, economic express, and same-city instant delivery increasing by 6.8%, 14.4%, and 38.9% respectively [12][14]. Profitability and Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3170.76 billion yuan, 3512.63 billion yuan, and 3899.48 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with a consistent growth rate of 11% [16][17]. - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 117.73 billion yuan, 136.68 billion yuan, and 158.68 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 16% [17]. - The report anticipates that ongoing cost reduction initiatives and profit margin recovery will significantly enhance the company's earnings elasticity [15][17].