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古越龙山(600059):Q3收入延续调整,静待需求改善
HTSC· 2025-10-29 08:47
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 1.186 billion and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 135 million for the first three quarters of 2025, showing a year-on-year revenue decline of 8.10% [1]. - The company is focusing on high-end product development and has established a strategic partnership with China Resources Beer to launch a new yellow wine craft beer [2]. - The company is expected to continue leading the yellow wine industry towards value recovery despite external demand pressures [1][4]. Revenue and Profitability - For Q3 2025, total revenue was 293 million, with a year-on-year decline of 26.96%, while net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 11.78% to 45 million [1]. - The company’s gross margin decreased by 1.0 percentage points to 35.75% for the first three quarters of 2025, attributed to product mix changes [3]. - The net profit margin for Q3 2025 was 2.05%, down 7.9 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Product and Market Strategy - The company’s revenue from mid-to-high-end wines was 838 million, with a year-on-year decline of 7.49% for the first three quarters of 2025 [2]. - The company has increased its revenue share from regions outside Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai to 43.02%, reflecting a balanced national development strategy [2]. - The company is focusing on core SKUs and implementing price maintenance strategies for high-end products [2]. Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1.831 billion, 2.000 billion, and 2.189 billion respectively, with a year-on-year growth of -5.4%, +9.0%, and +9.7% [4]. - The report maintains the EPS forecast for 2025-2027 at 0.22, 0.25, and 0.29 yuan [4]. - The target price is set at 12.48 yuan, based on a PB valuation method [4].