Economic Overview - GDP growth for the first half of 2025 was 5.3%, exceeding the annual target, with the meeting noting "major economic indicators performing well" [1] - The IMF projects global economic growth to slow from 3.3% last year to 3% this year, posing external challenges to China's economy [1] Policy Direction - The meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, with a focus on "steady employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations" [2] - No mention of "incremental policies," indicating a preference for stability over aggressive new measures [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The focus is on effective execution of existing policies, including accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency [3] - The fiscal deficit rate is set at 4%, the highest in history, with limited likelihood of additional fiscal tools being introduced this year [3] Consumer Spending - The meeting highlighted the importance of boosting consumption, with initiatives like a 300 billion yuan fund for trade-in programs and 138 billion yuan allocated for the third and fourth quarters [4] - Emphasis on both goods and service consumption to stimulate domestic demand [4] Market Stability - The meeting reiterated the need to stabilize foreign trade and investment, particularly in light of high tariffs imposed by the U.S. [6] - The external trade environment remains challenging, with potential tariff increases on exports to the U.S. [6] Real Estate and Capital Markets - Focus on high-quality urban renewal projects, with attention to potential policy changes in major cities regarding housing market restrictions [7] - The capital market is expected to maintain a stable upward trend, with continued support for equity markets [7] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that due to reduced likelihood of aggressive macro policy adjustments, funds may shift towards safer assets, with a focus on sectors like consumption and technology [7] - The consumption sector is anticipated to experience a rebound following recent policy announcements [7] Debt Market Outlook - The monetary policy stance remains unchanged, with a low probability of broad-based interest rate cuts, but potential targeted measures if new risks arise [8] - The bond market is expected to face limited risks, with conditions favorable for yield declines [8]