Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side still exerts strong pressure on egg prices, and overcapacity remains the core issue in the egg market. Egg prices are expected to continue to face downward pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in out - of - the - money call options on near - month contracts. The medium - to - long - term process of capacity reduction will determine the probability of a market reversal [7][8]. - Although there are expectations of improved demand in the egg spot market at the end of the year, considering the current egg - laying hen inventory and structure, the supply side still strongly suppresses prices [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Views and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per catty from the previous week, a decline of 1.70%. The cost of production and the reluctance to sell in the breeding link support the egg price. The "Double 11" promotion accelerated the sales of eggs, and the price stopped falling and stabilized. In October 2025, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.311 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 8.89%. The number of newly - opened laying hens in November is expected to decrease. The inventory of laying hens in November is shrinking, but the supply - side pressure on prices remains strong [7]. - **Outlook**: Supply pressure persists, and overcapacity is the core problem. It is recommended to hold short positions in out - of - the - money call options on near - month contracts. Pay attention to the slaughter of old hens and the medium - to - long - term capacity reduction process [8]. - **Strategy**: The main contract fluctuates widely at a low level, with a reference range of 3000 - 3300. Options can sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - **Spot Price**: The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas fluctuated widely this week. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan per catty, a decline of 1.70% from the previous week. Production costs and reluctance to sell supported the price, and the "Double 11" promotion led to price stabilization [18]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Inventory of Laying Hens**: In October 2025, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.311 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 8.89%. The number of newly - opened laying hens decreased in October, and the inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level in the past five - year average [27]. - **Replenishment Volume**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in October decreased due to the off - season of replenishment and low egg prices. The number of newly - opened laying hens in November is expected to continue to decrease as the chicken - chick sales in July declined significantly [33]. - **Price of Culled Hens**: The average price of old hens this week was 4.12 yuan per catty, a decline of 1.67% from the previous week. The price decline slowed down. It is expected that the price will be difficult to rise or fall next week, with an average weekly price of about 4.15 yuan per catty [36]. - **Slaughter of Culled Hens**: After the double festivals, the demand weakened, and the egg and culled - hen prices fell. The breeding industry suffered losses, and the slaughter volume and age of culled hens increased. In October, the average slaughter age was 497 days, 2 days earlier than in September, and the total slaughter volume was 2.6675 million, a month - on - month increase of 8.69% [39]. - **Inventory**: The production - link inventory increased significantly. The market lacks confidence in the future, which is negative for egg prices. However, due to improved storage conditions, there may be some bottom - fishing storage expectations [44]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Demand Seasonality**: Egg prices show obvious seasonal characteristics. They usually reach the lowest level around April, the highest level in late May, decline in June, rise in late July, reach the annual high in mid - to - late September, decline after September and October, and stabilize from November to December [56]. 3.5 Cost Side - **Feed Price**: Egg cost is mainly affected by corn and soybean meal prices, and egg price, cost, and profit are mostly positively correlated [61]. - **Breeding Cost**: This week, the egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.41 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decline of 0.29%. The breeding profit was - 0.50 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 10.71%. It is expected that the breeding profit in October will decline [65]. - **Breeding Profit**: This week, the egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.43 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.59%. The breeding profit was - 0.52 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decline of 13.04% [71].