| 序号 | 合打名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 买价 | 秀价 | 大型图片 | 英语 | 老店 | 成交量 | 液肤 | 持创学 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T | 线材2601 M | 3420 | I | 3419 | 3441 | 3.01% | 3 | 1 | 446 | 100 | 140 | 70 | | 2 | #1 2601 M | 11145 | 5 | 11145 | 11150 | 2.29% | 91 | 152 | 286431 | 250 | 157984 | 10391 | | 3 | 焦炭2601 M | 1666.5 | 1 | 1666.0 | 1667.5 | T.86% | 0 | 1 | 16954 | 30.5 | 41385 | -499 | | 4 | 焦煤2601 M | 1161.0 | 22 | 1160.5 | 1161.0 | 1.22% | 51 | 85 | 700639 | 14.0 | 596 ...

生猪产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年10月10日 朱迪 Z0015979 | 期货指标 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 -375 | 前值 વેર | 涨跌 -470 | 涨跌幅 -494.74% | 单位 | | 主力合约基差 生猪2511 | 11595 | 12352 | -760 | -6.15% | | | | | | | | 元/吨 | | 生猪2601 | 12165 | 12825 | -660 | -5.15% | | | 生猪11-1价差 | -570 | -470 | -100 | -21.28% | | | 主力合约持仓 | 58336 | 61105 | -2769 | -4.53% | #h | | 仓单 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 当地升贴水 | 单位 | | 河南 | 11220 | 12450 | -1230.0 | 0 | | | 山东 | 11820 ...

观点与策略 | 棕榈油：B50路测提前，品种间偏强运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆震荡运行，豆油难打开新高度 | 2 | | 豆粕：震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注新粮上市 | 6 | | 白糖：震荡上行 | 7 | | 棉花：新疆籽棉成交价格企稳 | 9 | | 鸡蛋：现货弱势运行 | 11 | | 生猪：现货底部未现，近月升水偏大 | 12 | | 花生：供应压力仍存 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 2025年10月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 10 月 10 日 棕榈油：B50 路测提前，品种间偏强运行 豆油：美豆震荡运行，豆油难打开新高度 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,570 | 涨跌幅 3.71% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,596 | 涨跌幅 0.27% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主 ...

一假期蛋价超预期下跌 币场快讯- 期货盘面大幅跳空低开 长期来看,蛋鸡养殖规模持续提升或拉长价格底部周期,耐心等待养 殖端超淘驱动去产能进程的到来。 > 交易策略 节前持续提示大规模集中淘鸡发生前维持高空思路不变,且节前建议 前期空单可继续持有。 当前河北现货跌破2.5元/斤,今日早报提示今日开盘盘面或跳空低开, 前期空单可继续持有,建议逢低可考虑逐步止盈。 现货表现 假期期间鸡蛋市场供强需弱施压蛋价大幅走低。10月8日河北馆陶粉 蛋价格为2.49元/斤,较9月30日跌0.35元/斤。 > 期货表现 今日鸡蛋期货近月合约大幅跳空低开,2511合约开盘2890元/500ka. 跌幅4.24%,截至收稿盘面为2902元/500kg;远月合约表现相对平稳。 分析逻辑 中短期来看,阶段性供强需弱格局持续,蛋价承压走弱、局部区域跌 至饲料成本。重点关注低价驱动淘鸡力度和规模。 格林大华 期货研究院 证监许可 [2011] 1288号 从业资格:F0242716 交易咨询资格:Z0011864 联系甲话0371-65617380 息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确推及灵量性不作后倒保证，不保证报告信息已做最新变更 ...

10月9日盘中，鸡蛋期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至2840.00元。截止发稿，鸡蛋主力合约 报2870.00元，跌幅4.90%。 鸡蛋期货主力跌近5%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 中原期货 鸡蛋期货继续维持偏弱运行 五矿期货 鸡蛋等待筑底为主，观望或短线 华联期货 鸡蛋主力合约低位宽幅震荡 中原期货：鸡蛋期货继续维持偏弱运行 节前鸡蛋主力合约低位宽幅震荡。现货方面，主产区均价3.60元/斤，低价区报3.43元/斤。旺季落幕， 食品企业及终端商超等环节拿货量逐渐减少，冷库蛋出库持续冲击市场，贸易流通环节恐跌心态显现， 产区出货受阻，市场交易氛围减弱。养殖端对后市蛋价看空心态增加，淘汰鸡出栏节奏明显加快。加之 当前供应量涨至近五年最高水平，产蛋率恢复，新开产蛋鸡及上高峰蛋鸡仍在增加，产能过剩格局难 改。主力合约低位宽幅震荡，参考运行区间2900~3200，期权方面，可卖出虚值看涨期权。 假期，全国鸡蛋现货回落为主，河北基准地现货2.4元/斤，下跌0.15元/斤。国庆假期全国处于大范围降 水阶段，影响出行旅游，消费拉动不明显，整体供应稳中有增，市场各环节供应充足，需求进入弱势环 ...

十一假期综述 宏观有色板块 【股指】 在国庆假期，市场表现引人瞩目，主要股指在假期前夕普遍上涨，其中 A 股市场更是展 现出强劲的增长势头，涨幅达到 6.7%，刷新了自 1987 年以来的高点。假期内，多项政 策利好消息持续释放。央行于10月9日将进行11000亿元的买断式逆回购，期限为三个 月，旨在维持市场流动性。此外，市场也对"十四五"资本市场规划的高质量实施寄予 厚望。预计在政策的引导和市场情绪的激励下，A 股市场将迎来增量资金的积极入场。 【铜】 【锌】 预计国内旺季需求不如预期，供应压力缓解有限，沪锌反弹高度有限。 国庆期间伦锌持续反弹突破前高。美元国庆早期连续几天弱势回落，海外锌库存持续回 落，伦锌持续走强。但近日美元再次转强，沪锌高位承压。国内锌矿加工费环比走弱， 但矿端供应仍偏宽松，国内锌供应压力仍较大，国内库存回落后仍在近年来相对高位。 【铅】 国庆期间伦铅冲高回落，呈宽幅震荡走势。伦铅库存回落，仍在近五年绝对高位。国内 再生铅利润修复，原生铅检修后逐步复产，整体铅供应压力加大。节前备货需求一般， 国内库存下降至低位，不过今年旺季需求并未有明显气起色。后期供应修复增加压力较 强，铅震荡偏弱。 ...

10月9日，国内期市农副产品板块涨跌参半，生猪主力跌近6%。截至目前，生猪主力下跌5.88%，报 11595.00元/吨；苹果主力上涨0.83%，报8648.00元/吨；红枣主力上涨0.56%，报10850.00元/吨；鸡蛋主 力下跌5.63%，报2848.00元/500千克。 10月9日农副产品期货价格行情 | 合约名称 | 开盘价 | 昨收价 | 昨结价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 鸡蛋 | 2890.00 | 3038.00 | 3018.00 | | 生猪 | 11710.00 | 12355.00 | 12320.00 | | 红枣 | 10880.00 | 10820.00 | 10790.00 | | 苹果 | 8700.00 | 8617.00 | 8577.00 | 9月30日，仓单日报数据显示： 生猪期货仓单0手，环比上个交易日持平； 截止北京时间9月30日，据基差数据显示：鸡蛋品种合约出现'期现倒挂'(现货价格高于期货价格)现象。 苹果期货仓单0张，环比上个交易日持平； 红枣期货仓单58张，环比上个交易日减少6155张； 鸡蛋期货仓单0手，环比上个交易日减 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 09 日星期四 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、美国农业部(USDA)在公布的季度库存报告上修2024年美玉米产量；当季玉米库存 | | | | | 高于市场预期。报告将美国2024年玉米产量预估上修2500万蒲式耳，至148.91756 | | | | | 亿蒲式耳。美国9月1日当季玉米库存为15.31613亿蒲式耳，较去年同期（17.63400 | | | | | 亿蒲）下滑13.1%，此前市场预估为13.37亿蒲式耳。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，10月8日锦州港贸易商散粮报价2290元/吨，较9 | | | | | 月30日持平。 | | | | | 3、新作方面，十一期间东北地区新粮收获逐渐加速，然而华北地区大面积连阴雨一 | | | | | 定程度上影响收获进度，关注连阴雨对华北地 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：国内需求端仍是核心症结 【市场资讯】1）美联储纪要：多数官员称今年继续宽松可能适宜，少数人本来可能支持 9 月不降息。2）美国政府关门逾一周还无解：参议院第六次否决两党临时拨款议案。3）美 国国会预算办公室：上财年美国联邦政府预算赤字 1.8 万亿美元，与 2024 财年近乎持平。 4）普京：必须确保特别军事行动设定的所有目标都无条件实现。俄副外长：俄美元首会晤 推力已基本耗尽，"战斧"导弹可致局势本质变化。5）消息人士称哈马斯已同意加沙停火协 议，特朗普：以色列与哈马斯已签署"20 点计划"第一阶段协议，本周末或去中东。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，国庆假期人员出行整体表现不弱。假期第六天，全社会跨区域人 员流动量 29819.42 万人次，环比增长 2.4%，同比增长 7%；假期前半程交通出行人数再创 新高，水路、民航旅客发送量亦实现增长。不过，国庆假期整体出行情况或不及五一假期。 整体来看，后续经济修复的关键仍需聚焦居民需求端。当前，供需两端政策正逐步推进， 后续或仍有增量政策出台，以推动物价平稳回升。需注意的是，政策出台的关键触发因素 或为经济数据超预期下滑，且政策基调仍以托底为主。而海 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategies previously suggested in the semi - annual report for corn, hog, and egg futures have been verified by the market. Corn futures showed a downward trend, hog futures first rose and then declined, and egg futures also trended downwards [6][9]. - For corn, the short - term price may remain weak due to the approaching peak of new grain supply, while the medium - term presents a wide - range trading opportunity, and the long - term maintains a pricing logic related to import substitution and planting cost [124]. - The hog market is in the bottom - grinding phase. The short - term is affected by strong supply and weak demand, the medium - term has supply increase expectations, and the long - term supply situation depends on factors such as sow inventory and production efficiency [127]. - For eggs, the short - to medium - term prices are under pressure due to the end of the holiday stocking period, and the long - term supply pressure may re - emerge if the chicken culling rate is lower than expected [134]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Corn Macro Logic - Internationally, the macro - driving force is gradually weakening; domestically, it is mainly reflected in industrial policies [124]. Industrial Logic - The industry has entered a passive inventory - building cycle, with attention on policies such as reserve acquisitions, auctions of targeted rice/imported corn, and grain import policies [124]. Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: Globally, the corn supply situation is tightening, while in the US, there is significant supply pressure. In China, there is a long - term corn supply - demand gap, and the pricing logic based on substitutes remains. In the medium - term, factors like new - year yield and planting cost are key, and in the short - term, the new grain price started high and then dropped, with the upcoming peak supply in October [124]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the hog production capacity increased, and the存栏 of egg - laying and meat - producing poultry remained high, providing rigid support for corn consumption. Deep - processing consumption is relatively stable [124]. Variety Viewpoint - Short - term: The new grain price may remain weak. The lower support on the futures market is around the planting cost of new - season corn, and the upper pressure is related to the wheat - corn price difference. - Medium - term: Conduct band trading based on new - season corn factors, and focus on band - buying opportunities supported by reserve policies. - Long - term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost, and pay attention to import policies and grain auctions [124]. Trading Strategy - Adopt an interval trading strategy in the medium - to long - term. In the fourth quarter, focus on band - buying opportunities supported by planting cost around 2100 yuan/ton [124]. Hog Macro Logic - Domestically, pay attention to the interaction between CPI and hog prices, and focus on industrial policy directions [125]. Industrial Logic - Under the guidance of capacity - reduction policies, the structure of the hog - breeding market may change. Market share is concentrating on leading enterprises, but the implementation of sow - reduction policies and its impact on supply are still uncertain [125]. Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: In the fourth quarter, the supply will continue to increase. The supply pressure in the first half of 2026 remains significant, and it may start to ease in the second half of 2026, depending on factors such as MSY and slaughter weight [126]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand for hogs is relatively stable, showing seasonal patterns. The increase in consumption during the end - of - year season may be limited [126]. Market Viewpoint - The hog price is in the bottom - grinding phase. The short - term is pressured by strong supply and weak demand, the medium - term has supply increase expectations, and the long - term supply situation depends on sow inventory and production efficiency. The possibility and amplitude of a seasonal rebound in the fourth quarter depend on the slaughter weight [127]. Operation Suggestion - The hog market is in the second half of the second half of the small cycle of passive capacity reduction due to diseases. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. For contracts before 2605, the supply is mainly determined by supply - demand logic, while for contracts after 2605, it depends on the implementation of capacity - reduction policies [128]. Egg Macro Logic - Domestically, pay attention to raw material prices, CPI changes, and the impact of meat and vegetable prices in the second half of the year [132]. Industrial Logic - The egg - laying chicken breeding industry has been profitable for four years, and the scale - up rate continues to increase, which will change the industry's structure and production efficiency [132]. Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: The egg - laying chicken inventory is at a high level, and the supply pressure persists. The current high inventory and the low chicken culling rate may lead to continued supply pressure in the fourth quarter [132]. - **Demand**: After the pre - holiday stocking period, the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose from October to November. The consumption support for egg prices may be weakened due to the extended holiday stocking period [133]. Variety Viewpoint - Short - to medium - term: The end of holiday stocking leads to slower sales and rising inventory, pressuring egg prices. Long - term: Pay attention to the chicken culling rate, as the current low culling rate may cause supply pressure to re - emerge in the fourth quarter [134]. Trading Strategy - The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Before large - scale chicken culling, adopt a short - selling strategy for near - term contracts. Egg - breeding enterprises can also consider selling - hedging opportunities for contracts 2607 and 2608 [135].