南华期货鸡蛋产业周报 ——节后消费减弱，蛋鸡存栏去化缓慢 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年3月2日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 上周鸡蛋市场的核心矛盾在于节后供需节奏的严重错配。从上游养殖端来看，在产蛋鸡存栏量仍处于13亿只 以上的历史高位，叠加春节假期积压的库存集中释放以及气温回暖后产蛋率回升，导致市场供应压力持续加 大；从下游需求端来看，食品厂采购锐减、团膳订单减少、贸易商以消化库存为主，导致主产区鸡蛋日均发 货量下降，需求呈现断崖式下跌。供需两端双重挤压下，鸡蛋价格加速下行，截至2月第3周全国均价跌至 2.93元/斤，行业由盈转亏，单斤鸡蛋盈利由月初的0.45元降至下旬的-0.62元。整体来看，上周鸡蛋市场呈现 典型的"供强需弱"格局，短期内供需失衡压力仍将持续。 蛋鸡存栏与蛋价 source： 南华研究 元/斤 亿只 蛋鸡：存栏数：中国（月）(右轴) 鸡蛋：主产区：均价：中国（日） 15/12 17/12 19/12 21/12 23/12 25/12 11 12 13 2 3 4 5 6 鸡蛋：发货量（周）季节 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg spot price continued to rebound due to the Spring Festival stocking. The average price in the main production areas was 3.36 yuan/jin, up 0.22 yuan/jin from last week. Short - term price is supported by production cost and farmers' reluctance to sell, and the inventory is being digested [12][23]. - In December 2025, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.295 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 7.11%. The number of newly - opened laying hens in January 2026 will continue to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline but remain at a high level in the past five years. Short - term egg prices are still under pressure, while medium - term supply - demand is expected to improve [12][36]. - The egg market shows a significant supply - demand imbalance. The laying - hen inventory is at a historical high, and the market is in a state of over - capacity. However, as the inventory decreases and the Spring Festival demand starts, the supply - demand pattern is shifting from loose to tight - balance. The egg price has fundamental support, but the upward space is restricted by substitute prices and terminal consumption [13]. - The medium - term egg supply pressure has not been alleviated. The main contract is for the post - festival period, continuing to fluctuate widely in the range. The pressure level is around 3100 - 3150. For options, investors can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoint and Strategy - **Fundamental Viewpoint**: The spot price rebounds, the supply - demand situation shows short - term pressure and medium - term improvement, and the market is in a state of supply - demand imbalance with potential for improvement. The strategy is to expect the main contract to fluctuate widely and consider buying call options of far - month contracts [12][13]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - The egg industry chain includes upstream (feed, breeding, animal protection), mid - stream (egg production and sales, and elimination of laying hens), and downstream (sales to various channels such as supermarkets, restaurants, and food processing plants) [17]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The national egg spot price continued to rebound due to the Spring Festival stocking. The average price in the main production areas was 3.36 yuan/jin, up 0.22 yuan/jin from last week. The price is supported by cost and farmers' reluctance to sell, and the inventory is being digested [23]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Laying - hen Inventory**: In December 2025, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.295 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 7.11%. The number of newly - opened laying hens in January 2026 will continue to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline but remain at a high level in the past five years [12][36]. - **Chick Rearing and Replenishment**: In December, the total sales volume of commercial - generation chick seedlings of 15 representative enterprises was 37.25 million, a month - on - month increase of 3.39%. Although the sales volume increased slightly, most small and medium - sized farmers' enthusiasm for replenishment was still low. The egg - to - chick utilization rate was generally low, and the chick price is expected to be stable [42]. - **Eliminated Hen Price**: In January, the supply of eliminated hens is expected to be sufficient, and the demand is expected to improve due to the Spring Festival stocking. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly, with an average monthly price of about 4.10 yuan/jin [46]. - **Eliminated Hen Sales**: This week, the total sales volume of eliminated hens was 658,500, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53%. The price increase led to farmers' reluctance to sell, and the overall sales volume decreased slightly [49]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Sales in Main Consumption Areas**: The egg demand shows seasonal characteristics. The price generally reaches the lowest in April, the highest in September, and then declines after the peak season [71]. - **Substitute Prices**: Although not elaborated in detail, substitute prices are factors restricting the upward space of egg prices [13]. 3.6 Cost and Profit - **Feed Price**: The egg cost is mainly affected by corn and soybean meal prices. In 2026, the supply of corn is expected to increase, and the international purchase of soybean meal may increase, with their average prices likely to decline slightly. Although the feed cost is expected to fall by 1% - 2%, the overall cost of the industry is generally above 3.5 yuan/jin [80]. - **Laying - hen Breeding Profit**: This week, the cost per jin of eggs was 3.54 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 yuan/jin (0.57% increase). The profit was - 0.18 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.24 yuan/jin (57.14% increase). The cost per hen was 133.57 yuan/hen, a month - on - month increase of 0.47 yuan/hen (0.35% increase), and the breeding profit was 4.70 yuan/hen, a month - on - month increase of 9.54 yuan/hen (197.11% increase) [88].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side still exerts strong pressure on egg prices, and overcapacity remains the core issue in the egg market. Egg prices are expected to continue to face downward pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in out - of - the - money call options on near - month contracts. The medium - to - long - term process of capacity reduction will determine the probability of a market reversal [7][8]. - Although there are expectations of improved demand in the egg spot market at the end of the year, considering the current egg - laying hen inventory and structure, the supply side still strongly suppresses prices [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Views and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per catty from the previous week, a decline of 1.70%. The cost of production and the reluctance to sell in the breeding link support the egg price. The "Double 11" promotion accelerated the sales of eggs, and the price stopped falling and stabilized. In October 2025, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.311 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 8.89%. The number of newly - opened laying hens in November is expected to decrease. The inventory of laying hens in November is shrinking, but the supply - side pressure on prices remains strong [7]. - **Outlook**: Supply pressure persists, and overcapacity is the core problem. It is recommended to hold short positions in out - of - the - money call options on near - month contracts. Pay attention to the slaughter of old hens and the medium - to - long - term capacity reduction process [8]. - **Strategy**: The main contract fluctuates widely at a low level, with a reference range of 3000 - 3300. Options can sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - **Spot Price**: The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas fluctuated widely this week. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan per catty, a decline of 1.70% from the previous week. Production costs and reluctance to sell supported the price, and the "Double 11" promotion led to price stabilization [18]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Inventory of Laying Hens**: In October 2025, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.311 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 8.89%. The number of newly - opened laying hens decreased in October, and the inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level in the past five - year average [27]. - **Replenishment Volume**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in October decreased due to the off - season of replenishment and low egg prices. The number of newly - opened laying hens in November is expected to continue to decrease as the chicken - chick sales in July declined significantly [33]. - **Price of Culled Hens**: The average price of old hens this week was 4.12 yuan per catty, a decline of 1.67% from the previous week. The price decline slowed down. It is expected that the price will be difficult to rise or fall next week, with an average weekly price of about 4.15 yuan per catty [36]. - **Slaughter of Culled Hens**: After the double festivals, the demand weakened, and the egg and culled - hen prices fell. The breeding industry suffered losses, and the slaughter volume and age of culled hens increased. In October, the average slaughter age was 497 days, 2 days earlier than in September, and the total slaughter volume was 2.6675 million, a month - on - month increase of 8.69% [39]. - **Inventory**: The production - link inventory increased significantly. The market lacks confidence in the future, which is negative for egg prices. However, due to improved storage conditions, there may be some bottom - fishing storage expectations [44]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Demand Seasonality**: Egg prices show obvious seasonal characteristics. They usually reach the lowest level around April, the highest level in late May, decline in June, rise in late July, reach the annual high in mid - to - late September, decline after September and October, and stabilize from November to December [56]. 3.5 Cost Side - **Feed Price**: Egg cost is mainly affected by corn and soybean meal prices, and egg price, cost, and profit are mostly positively correlated [61]. - **Breeding Cost**: This week, the egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.41 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decline of 0.29%. The breeding profit was - 0.50 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 10.71%. It is expected that the breeding profit in October will decline [65]. - **Breeding Profit**: This week, the egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.43 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.59%. The breeding profit was - 0.52 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decline of 13.04% [71].

高供应、弱需求格局延续，前期市场锚定的旺季涨价预期给予期货盘面一定升水。在现货低迷的情况 下，市场对后市行情转向悲观，盘面增仓大跌，以修复基差，主力合约JD2510在8月29日跌至2919元／ 500千克，创近9年新低。 过去几年，蛋鸡养殖利润丰厚，加速了行业产能扩张。进入2025年，新增产能进入兑现期，鸡蛋市场整 体呈现显著的供需失衡特征，在产蛋鸡存栏量创历史同期高位，加之鸡龄结构偏年轻化，老鸡淘汰速度 偏慢，供应过剩或贯穿全年，年内期现货价格均经历深度调整。 蛋价跌至近7年低位 我的农产品网数据显示，鸡蛋现货价格自年初4.5元／斤的高点持续下跌。截至8月31日，鸡蛋主产区均 价报3.15元／斤，主销区均价报3.11元／斤，河北低价区报2.69元／斤，较2024年10月高点跌幅超 30%，创近7年低位。 尽管8月为传统需求旺季，但现货价格并未如愿反弹，凸显今年"旺季不旺"的特征。同时，今年替代品 （蔬菜、猪肉）价格低迷分流需求，食品厂备货启动迟缓，贸易商为规避风险，以随采随销为主，冷库 蛋出库持续冲击鲜蛋市场。 当前，鸡蛋生产环节库存可用天数升至1.06天，流通环节库存可用天数升至1.12天，均环比增加4% ...