Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side still exerts strong pressure on egg prices, and overcapacity remains the core issue in the egg market. Egg prices are expected to continue to face downward pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in out - of - the - money call options on near - month contracts. The medium - to - long - term process of capacity reduction will determine the probability of a market reversal [7][8]. - Although there are expectations of improved demand in the egg spot market at the end of the year, considering the current egg - laying hen inventory and structure, the supply side still strongly suppresses prices [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Views and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per catty from the previous week, a decline of 1.70%. The cost of production and the reluctance to sell in the breeding link support the egg price. The "Double 11" promotion accelerated the sales of eggs, and the price stopped falling and stabilized. In October 2025, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.311 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 8.89%. The number of newly - opened laying hens in November is expected to decrease. The inventory of laying hens in November is shrinking, but the supply - side pressure on prices remains strong [7]. - **Outlook**: Supply pressure persists, and overcapacity is the core problem. It is recommended to hold short positions in out - of - the - money call options on near - month contracts. Pay attention to the slaughter of old hens and the medium - to - long - term capacity reduction process [8]. - **Strategy**: The main contract fluctuates widely at a low level, with a reference range of 3000 - 3300. Options can sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - **Spot Price**: The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas fluctuated widely this week. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan per catty, a decline of 1.70% from the previous week. Production costs and reluctance to sell supported the price, and the "Double 11" promotion led to price stabilization [18]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Inventory of Laying Hens**: In October 2025, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.311 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 8.89%. The number of newly - opened laying hens decreased in October, and the inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level in the past five - year average [27]. - **Replenishment Volume**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in October decreased due to the off - season of replenishment and low egg prices. The number of newly - opened laying hens in November is expected to continue to decrease as the chicken - chick sales in July declined significantly [33]. - **Price of Culled Hens**: The average price of old hens this week was 4.12 yuan per catty, a decline of 1.67% from the previous week. The price decline slowed down. It is expected that the price will be difficult to rise or fall next week, with an average weekly price of about 4.15 yuan per catty [36]. - **Slaughter of Culled Hens**: After the double festivals, the demand weakened, and the egg and culled - hen prices fell. The breeding industry suffered losses, and the slaughter volume and age of culled hens increased. In October, the average slaughter age was 497 days, 2 days earlier than in September, and the total slaughter volume was 2.6675 million, a month - on - month increase of 8.69% [39]. - **Inventory**: The production - link inventory increased significantly. The market lacks confidence in the future, which is negative for egg prices. However, due to improved storage conditions, there may be some bottom - fishing storage expectations [44]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Demand Seasonality**: Egg prices show obvious seasonal characteristics. They usually reach the lowest level around April, the highest level in late May, decline in June, rise in late July, reach the annual high in mid - to - late September, decline after September and October, and stabilize from November to December [56]. 3.5 Cost Side - **Feed Price**: Egg cost is mainly affected by corn and soybean meal prices, and egg price, cost, and profit are mostly positively correlated [61]. - **Breeding Cost**: This week, the egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.41 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decline of 0.29%. The breeding profit was - 0.50 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 10.71%. It is expected that the breeding profit in October will decline [65]. - **Breeding Profit**: This week, the egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.43 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.59%. The breeding profit was - 0.52 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decline of 13.04% [71].

高供应、弱需求格局延续，前期市场锚定的旺季涨价预期给予期货盘面一定升水。在现货低迷的情况 下，市场对后市行情转向悲观，盘面增仓大跌，以修复基差，主力合约JD2510在8月29日跌至2919元／ 500千克，创近9年新低。 过去几年，蛋鸡养殖利润丰厚，加速了行业产能扩张。进入2025年，新增产能进入兑现期，鸡蛋市场整 体呈现显著的供需失衡特征，在产蛋鸡存栏量创历史同期高位，加之鸡龄结构偏年轻化，老鸡淘汰速度 偏慢，供应过剩或贯穿全年，年内期现货价格均经历深度调整。 蛋价跌至近7年低位 我的农产品网数据显示，鸡蛋现货价格自年初4.5元／斤的高点持续下跌。截至8月31日，鸡蛋主产区均 价报3.15元／斤，主销区均价报3.11元／斤，河北低价区报2.69元／斤，较2024年10月高点跌幅超 30%，创近7年低位。 尽管8月为传统需求旺季，但现货价格并未如愿反弹，凸显今年"旺季不旺"的特征。同时，今年替代品 （蔬菜、猪肉）价格低迷分流需求，食品厂备货启动迟缓，贸易商为规避风险，以随采随销为主，冷库 蛋出库持续冲击鲜蛋市场。 当前，鸡蛋生产环节库存可用天数升至1.06天，流通环节库存可用天数升至1.12天，均环比增加4% ...