1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and market investment demand has weakened. The RB2601 contract may continue to trade within a range. Traders are advised to engage in short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control. Considering the rebound, it is advisable to buy put options [9][60] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Price and Spread**: As of the close on November 21, the futures price of the main rebar contract was 3057 yuan/ton (+4), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3250 yuan/ton (+10) [7] - **Production**: Rebar production increased to 207.96 million tons (+7.96), year - on - year decrease of 25.86 million tons [7] - **Demand**: Apparent demand rebounded to 230.79 million tons (+14.42), year - on - year decrease of 3.41 million tons [7] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of rebar continued to decline to 553.34 million tons (-22.83), year - on - year increase of 108.23 million tons [7] - **Profit Margin**: The profit - making rate of steel mills was 37.66%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week and 16.89 percentage points from the same period last year [7] - **Market Outlook**: Overseas, there is a large divergence among Fed policymakers on whether to continue cutting interest rates in December. Domestically, the third - round fifth - batch of central environmental protection inspections has been launched, and the central bank has maintained the loan prime rates unchanged. Rebar production has stopped falling and rebounded, with capacity utilization rising to 45.59%, and EAF steel operating rate continuing to increase. Downstream demand is better than expected, apparent demand has rebounded, and inventory has continued to decline. Iron ore prices are oscillating strongly, while coal and coke prices are weakening. Technically, the RB2601 contract is trading in a range of 3000 - 3100 [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: This week, the RB2601 contract first rose and then fell. The price of the RB2601 contract was stronger than that of the RB2605 contract, and the spread on the 21st was - 41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/ton [15] - **Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions**: On November 21, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 64,820 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,107 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of rebar futures contracts was 82,833 lots, an increase of 7,798 lots from the previous week [22] - **Spot Price and Basis**: On November 21, the spot quotation of Hangzhou's third - grade 20mm HRB400 rebar was 3250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3268 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 28 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of rebar was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 21st was 193 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton [26] 3.3 Upstream Market - **Raw Material Prices**: On November 21, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 844 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/dry ton; the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1760 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [31] - **Iron Ore Arrivals and Inventory**: From November 10 - 16, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 23.699 billion tons, a decrease of 3.994 billion tons from the previous period; the total arrivals at 45 Chinese ports were 22.689 billion tons, a decrease of 4.723 billion tons; the total arrivals at six northern ports were 10.413 billion tons, a decrease of 4.845 billion tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 157.3485 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77.99 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.4339 billion tons, an increase of 31.1 million tons [36] - **Coking Plant Situation**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 71.10%, unchanged from the previous week. The daily coke output was 497,500 tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons. Coke inventory was 434,400 tons, an increase of 72,900 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 8.8922 billion tons, a decrease of 335,600 tons. The available days of coking coal were 13.4 days, a decrease of 0.4 days [40] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply - Side - Crude Steel**: In October 2025, China's crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel production was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [44] - **Supply - Side - Rebar Production**: On November 21, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.19%, a decrease of 0.62 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.26 percentage points from the same period last year; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.58%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.05 percentage points from the same period last year; the daily average hot - metal output was 2.3628 billion tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons from last week and an increase of 480,000 tons from the same period last year. On November 20, the weekly rebar production of 139 building - materials production enterprises was 2.0796 billion tons, an increase of 796,000 tons from last week and a decrease of 2.586 billion tons from the same period last year [47] - **Supply - Side - EAF Steel**: On November 20, the weekly rebar capacity utilization rate of 139 building - materials production enterprises was 45.59%, an increase of 1.74% from last week and a decrease of 5.67% from the same period last year. The average operating rate of 90 independent EAF steel mills was 69.13%, a month - on - month increase of 1 percentage point and a year - on - year decrease of 0.65 percentage points [50] - **Supply - Side - Rebar Inventory**: On November 20, the in - plant inventory of rebar of 137 building - materials production enterprises was 1.5332 billion tons, a decrease of 710,000 tons from last week and an increase of 460,000 tons from the same period last year. The inventory of building steel in 35 major cities was 4.0002 billion tons, a decrease of 1.573 billion tons from last week and an increase of 10.363 billion tons from the same period last year. The total rebar inventory was 5.5334 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.283 billion tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.823 billion tons [54] - **Demand - Side**: From January to October 2025, national real - estate development investment was 7.3563 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The floor area under construction of real - estate development enterprises was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; the newly started floor area was 490.61 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%; the completed floor area was 348.61 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9%. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Among them, pipeline - transportation investment increased by 13.8%, water - transportation investment increased by 9.4%, and railway - transportation investment increased by 3.0% [57] 3.5 Options Market - Due to the rebound in both rebar production and demand, poor performance of raw materials, weakened cost support, and short - term pressure, it is advisable to consider buying put options on the rebound [60]