经济观察网 据央视新闻客户端消息，今天，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年 12月22日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，均维持不变。 ...

12月22日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年10月20日贷款市场报价利率(LPR) 为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。 ...

中国央行将一年期和五年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）分别维持在3%和3.5%不变，为连续7个月保持不变。 https://t.co/7UB5Z1lcDX ...

一、11月末广义货币余额同比增长8% 11月末，广义货币（M2）余额336.99万亿元，同比增长8%。狭义货币（M1）余额112.89万亿元，同比 增长4.9%。流通中货币（M0）余额13.74万亿元，同比增长10.6%。前十一个月净投放现金9175亿元。 二、前十一个月社会融资规模增量同比多3.99万亿元 初步统计，前十一个月社会融资规模增量累计为33.39万亿元，比上年同期多3.99万亿元。从主要分项 看，对实体经济发放的人民币贷款增加14.93万亿元，同比少增1.28万亿元；未贴现的银行承兑汇票增加 1605亿元，同比多增3568亿元；企业债券净融资2.24万亿元，同比多3125亿元；政府债券净融资13.15万 亿元，同比多3.61万亿元；非金融企业境内股票融资4204亿元，同比多1788亿元。 三、11月末社会融资规模存量同比增长8.5% 11月份同业拆借加权平均利率为1.42%，比上年同期低0.13个百分点。质押式回购加权平均利率为 1.44%，比上年同期低0.15个百分点。 七、与上年末比，贷款市场报价利率下降 四、前十一个月人民币贷款增加15.36万亿元 11月末，本外币贷款余额274.84万亿 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The iron ore futures price fluctuated strongly due to a decrease in arrivals and port inventories. The Fed's December rate cut expectation weakened, and the iron ore supply pressure was alleviated by a decline in arrivals in recent weeks. The iron ore production remained above 2.35 million tons, but the current weakness in the coking coal and steel markets might affect the ore price. The I2601 contract should focus on the resistance around 800, with short - term trading and attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Price**: As of the close on November 21, the iron ore main contract futures price was 785.5 (+13) yuan/ton, and the Macfayden powder at Qingdao Port was 844 (+6) yuan/dry ton [6]. - **Shipment**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 447,400 tons week - on - week. From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 35.164 million tons, and the Australia and Brazil iron ore shipment volume was 29.087 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.601 million tons [5][6]. - **Arrival**: The arrival volume at 47 ports decreased by 399,400 tons. From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.699 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 399,400 tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 22.689 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 472,300 tons; and the arrival volume at six northern ports was 10.413 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 484,500 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The hot metal production decreased by 600 tons. The daily average hot metal production was 2.3628 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 480 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 77,990 tons. As of November 21, 2025, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 157.3485 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77,990 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 194,530 tons. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills was 90.0123 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 74,780 tons [6]. - **Profit Margin**: The steel mill profit margin was 37.66%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.89 percentage points [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Overseas, the Fed had a large divergence on whether to continue cutting interest rates in December. Domestically, the third - round fifth - batch of central environmental protection inspections were launched, and the central bank kept the loan prime rates unchanged. In terms of supply and demand, the Australia and Brazil iron ore shipments increased, arrivals decreased, and domestic port inventories declined. The steel mill blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and hot metal production were slightly adjusted downwards. Technically, the I2601 contract of iron ore rushed up and consolidated, with the daily K - line standing above multiple moving averages and a bullish arrangement of the moving average combination. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were rising upwards but had not effectively broken through the 0 axis [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: This week, the I2601 contract fluctuated strongly. It was stronger than the I2605 contract, with a spread of 29.5 yuan/ton on the 21st, a week - on - week increase of 0.5 yuan/ton [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Net Long Positions**: On November 21, the Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore warehouse receipts were 800, a week - on - week decrease of 100. The net long position of the top 20 in the ore futures contract was 527, an increase of 27,890 from the previous week [22]. - **Spot Price**: On November 21, the Macfayden powder ore with 61% iron content at Qingdao Port was reported at 844 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/dry ton. This week, the iron ore spot price was weaker than the futures price, with a basis of 59 yuan/ton on the 21st, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton [28]. 3. Industry Situation - **Arrival Volume**: From November 10 to November 16, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume increased, while the arrival volume at 45 ports in China decreased [32]. - **Inventory**: The total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports decreased by 77,990 tons week - on - week, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 3110 tons. The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory decreased by 74,780 tons week - on - week, the daily consumption decreased by 950 tons, and the inventory consumption ratio decreased by 0.16 days [35]. - **Inventory Availability Days**: As of November 20, the average inventory availability days of imported iron ore in domestic large - and medium - sized steel mills was 20 days, a week - on - week decrease of 1 day. On November 20, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was 2170, a week - on - week increase of 145 [40]. - **Import Volume and Capacity Utilization**: In October, China's iron ore imports decreased by 5.017 million tons month - on - month, a decrease of 4.3%. From January to October, the cumulative imports increased by 0.7% year - on - year. As of November 14, the capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines increased by 0.38% week - on - week, the daily average fine powder output increased by 240 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2410 tons [43]. - **Domestic Iron Ore Output**: In October 2025, China's iron ore raw ore output decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative output from January to October decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. In September, the iron fine powder output of 433 domestic iron mines decreased by 35,600 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 1.5% [47]. 4. Downstream Situation - **Crude Steel Output**: In October 2025, China's crude steel output was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel output was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [50]. - **Steel Exports and Imports**: In October 2025, China's steel exports were 9.782 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.5%; imports were 503,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%. From January to October, cumulative exports increased by 6.6% year - on - year, and cumulative imports decreased by 11.9% year - on - year [50]. - **Blast Furnace Operating Rate and Hot Metal Production**: On November 21, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.19%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.62 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.26 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.58%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.05 percentage points. The daily average hot metal production was 2.3628 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 480 tons [53]. 5. Options Market - Due to the support of the decline in iron ore inventory, the ore price was strong, but the overall black sector was weak, especially the decline in steel mill profits might squeeze the ore price. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options when iron ore rebounds [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market is intertwined with both bullish and bearish factors, and market investment demand has weakened. The RB2601 contract may continue to trade within a range. Traders are advised to engage in short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control. Considering the rebound, it is advisable to buy put options [9][60] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Price and Spread**: As of the close on November 21, the futures price of the main rebar contract was 3057 yuan/ton (+4), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3250 yuan/ton (+10) [7] - **Production**: Rebar production increased to 207.96 million tons (+7.96), year - on - year decrease of 25.86 million tons [7] - **Demand**: Apparent demand rebounded to 230.79 million tons (+14.42), year - on - year decrease of 3.41 million tons [7] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of rebar continued to decline to 553.34 million tons (-22.83), year - on - year increase of 108.23 million tons [7] - **Profit Margin**: The profit - making rate of steel mills was 37.66%, a decrease of 1.30 percentage points from last week and 16.89 percentage points from the same period last year [7] - **Market Outlook**: Overseas, there is a large divergence among Fed policymakers on whether to continue cutting interest rates in December. Domestically, the third - round fifth - batch of central environmental protection inspections has been launched, and the central bank has maintained the loan prime rates unchanged. Rebar production has stopped falling and rebounded, with capacity utilization rising to 45.59%, and EAF steel operating rate continuing to increase. Downstream demand is better than expected, apparent demand has rebounded, and inventory has continued to decline. Iron ore prices are oscillating strongly, while coal and coke prices are weakening. Technically, the RB2601 contract is trading in a range of 3000 - 3100 [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: This week, the RB2601 contract first rose and then fell. The price of the RB2601 contract was stronger than that of the RB2605 contract, and the spread on the 21st was - 41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/ton [15] - **Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions**: On November 21, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 64,820 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,107 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of rebar futures contracts was 82,833 lots, an increase of 7,798 lots from the previous week [22] - **Spot Price and Basis**: On November 21, the spot quotation of Hangzhou's third - grade 20mm HRB400 rebar was 3250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3268 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 28 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price of rebar was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 21st was 193 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton [26] 3.3 Upstream Market - **Raw Material Prices**: On November 21, the price of 61% Australian Macfayden iron ore powder at Qingdao Port was 844 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/dry ton; the spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1760 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton [31] - **Iron Ore Arrivals and Inventory**: From November 10 - 16, 2025, the total arrivals at 47 Chinese ports were 23.699 billion tons, a decrease of 3.994 billion tons from the previous period; the total arrivals at 45 Chinese ports were 22.689 billion tons, a decrease of 4.723 billion tons; the total arrivals at six northern ports were 10.413 billion tons, a decrease of 4.845 billion tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 157.3485 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77.99 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.4339 billion tons, an increase of 31.1 million tons [36] - **Coking Plant Situation**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 71.10%, unchanged from the previous week. The daily coke output was 497,500 tons, a decrease of 39,000 tons. Coke inventory was 434,400 tons, an increase of 72,900 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 8.8922 billion tons, a decrease of 335,600 tons. The available days of coking coal were 13.4 days, a decrease of 0.4 days [40] 3.4 Industry Situation - **Supply - Side - Crude Steel**: In October 2025, China's crude steel production was 72 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.1%. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel production was 817.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.9% [44] - **Supply - Side - Rebar Production**: On November 21, the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 82.19%, a decrease of 0.62 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.26 percentage points from the same period last year; the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 88.58%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points from last week and an increase of 0.05 percentage points from the same period last year; the daily average hot - metal output was 2.3628 billion tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons from last week and an increase of 480,000 tons from the same period last year. On November 20, the weekly rebar production of 139 building - materials production enterprises was 2.0796 billion tons, an increase of 796,000 tons from last week and a decrease of 2.586 billion tons from the same period last year [47] - **Supply - Side - EAF Steel**: On November 20, the weekly rebar capacity utilization rate of 139 building - materials production enterprises was 45.59%, an increase of 1.74% from last week and a decrease of 5.67% from the same period last year. The average operating rate of 90 independent EAF steel mills was 69.13%, a month - on - month increase of 1 percentage point and a year - on - year decrease of 0.65 percentage points [50] - **Supply - Side - Rebar Inventory**: On November 20, the in - plant inventory of rebar of 137 building - materials production enterprises was 1.5332 billion tons, a decrease of 710,000 tons from last week and an increase of 460,000 tons from the same period last year. The inventory of building steel in 35 major cities was 4.0002 billion tons, a decrease of 1.573 billion tons from last week and an increase of 10.363 billion tons from the same period last year. The total rebar inventory was 5.5334 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.283 billion tons and a year - on - year increase of 10.823 billion tons [54] - **Demand - Side**: From January to October 2025, national real - estate development investment was 7.3563 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. The floor area under construction of real - estate development enterprises was 6.52939 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%; the newly started floor area was 490.61 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%; the completed floor area was 348.61 million square meters, a decrease of 16.9%. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Among them, pipeline - transportation investment increased by 13.8%, water - transportation investment increased by 9.4%, and railway - transportation investment increased by 3.0% [57] 3.5 Options Market - Due to the rebound in both rebar production and demand, poor performance of raw materials, weakened cost support, and short - term pressure, it is advisable to consider buying put options on the rebound [60]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that China Construction Bank (00939) management indicates that the yields on consumer loans, mortgages, and large corporate loans are stabilizing, with expectations for stable yields if the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) does not significantly decrease by 2026 [1] Group 1: Loan Performance and Projections - The bank anticipates that the narrowing of net interest margin will slow down by 2026, with pressure mainly during the first quarter loan repricing period [1] - Approximately 60% of mortgage loans will be repriced on January 1, 2026, and management believes that net interest income is likely to turn positive, supporting revenue growth [1] - After regular property price reassessments, the loan-to-value ratio for mortgages exceeds 40%, and management is satisfied with the current credit quality of mortgage loans [1] Group 2: Non-Performing Loans and Provisions - Management expresses satisfaction with the current non-performing loan coverage ratio and is willing to gradually release provisions to support profits as income stabilizes [1]

11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年10月20日贷款市场报价利率(LPR) 为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。 ...

北京商报讯(记者 廖蒙) 11月20日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年11月20日 贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。两大报价均与前值保持一 致，以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。这也是两大LPR品种报价连续6个月保持不变。 ...

中国央行将一年期和五年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）分别维持在3%和3.5%不变，为连续六个月保持不变。 ...