宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 11 月 12 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线压力 | 基本面未好转，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 政策扰动下双焦价格回落，黑色情绪趋弱，相应的螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，供应收缩但降幅 不大，且库存水平偏高，压力未见缓解。与此同时，螺纹需求有所走弱，高频指标下行且继续位于 近年来同期低位，而下游行业并未改善，淡季需求预期走弱，继续承压钢价。目前来看，供需双弱 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of rebar continues to be under pressure and is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, with the cost still providing support, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillating, oscillating, and oscillating weakly respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the industrial contradictions are unresolved and the steel price is oscillating to find the bottom [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar have both weakened. The output has slightly declined, the inventory reduction is limited, and the supply pressure has not been alleviated. At the same time, the demand has weakened as expected, with high - frequency indicators falling and remaining at a low level in recent years. As the off - season approaches, the demand is likely to weaken, continuing to put pressure on the steel price. Overall, the industrial contradictions are unresolved under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the steel price is under pressure [3]