投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The overall view is that the steel price of rebar 2601 will continue to search for the bottom in a volatile manner, with a short - term, medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday outlook of weak oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, with supply contraction having limited positive effects and demand being weak, while the relatively favorable factor is the low valuation. [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term outlook is oscillation, the medium - term outlook is oscillation, and the intraday outlook is weakly oscillating. It is advised to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals are weakly stable and the steel price is searching for the bottom in a volatile manner. [1] Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Rebar production has declined to a low level, but the inventory is high, so the positive effect on the supply side is not strong. Meanwhile, rebar demand continues to weaken, with high - frequency indicators remaining at low levels in recent years, and the downstream industries are performing poorly. Demand will continue to weaken seasonally, dragging down the steel price. With supply contraction having limited positive effects and demand being weak, the fundamentals have not improved, and the steel price remains under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. It is expected that the steel price will continue to search for the bottom in a volatile manner, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by SteelHome today. [2]

说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 11 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 现实格局弱稳，钢价低位震荡 | 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末钢材现货价格持稳运行，成交表现一般，而螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，螺纹产量持续下 降，但库存水平偏高，且持续性存疑，供应端利好效应不强。与此同时，螺纹需求持续走弱，高频 指标延续下行，继续位于近年来同期低位，且下游行业未见好转，后续需求降迎来季节性走弱。目 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 11 月 14 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端延续走弱，螺纹产量下降且降至低位，但持续性存疑，且库存水平偏高，供应 利好效应有限。与此同时，螺纹需求持续走弱，高频指标延续下行，依旧位于近年来 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2601 are expected to be oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA10 line. The industrial contradictions remain unresolved, and steel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [1]. - Market sentiment has warmed up, and steel prices have stabilized in oscillation. However, under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and the upward driving force is not strong. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2]. Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, short - term trend is oscillatory, medium - term is oscillatory, and intraday is weakly oscillatory. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, with the core logic being that industrial contradictions are unresolved and steel prices oscillate at a low level [1]. Market Driving Logic - Commodity sentiment has warmed up, and combined with production restriction disturbances, steel prices have stabilized in oscillation. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. Supply has shrunk but remains at a relatively high level this year, and inventory reduction is limited. Demand indicators have declined and are at a low level in the same period in recent years. With the approaching of the off - season, demand is likely to weaken, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. The fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and the upward driving force is weak, so it is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 11 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 供需格局偏弱，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末钢材现货价格弱稳运行，成交表现偏弱，而螺纹钢供需格局未好转，产量虽有所回落，但 仍处年内相对高位，且库存去化有限，供应压力未缓解。与此同时，螺纹需求再度转弱，高频指标 下行且位于近年来同期低位，而下游行业未改善，需求表现偏弱，继续承压钢价。目前来看，供需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of rebar continues to be under pressure and is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, with the cost still providing support, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillating, oscillating, and oscillating weakly respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the industrial contradictions are unresolved and the steel price is oscillating to find the bottom [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar have both weakened. The output has slightly declined, the inventory reduction is limited, and the supply pressure has not been alleviated. At the same time, the demand has weakened as expected, with high - frequency indicators falling and remaining at a low level in recent years. As the off - season approaches, the demand is likely to weaken, continuing to put pressure on the steel price. Overall, the industrial contradictions are unresolved under the situation of weak supply and demand, and the steel price is under pressure [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks for rebar 2601 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the market sentiment is weak and steel prices are searching for a bottom weakly [2]. - The steel price is likely to continue its weak trend of searching for a bottom. The supply of rebar has increased, and although the demand has improved seasonally, the fundamentals have not improved. It is necessary to pay attention to the demand performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weak market sentiment and steel prices searching for a bottom weakly [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The market sentiment is weak, and the ferrous metals are declining. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. The output of construction steel mills has been increasing, and the rebar output has reached a high for the year, while the inventory level is high, increasing the supply pressure [3]. - The demand for rebar has improved seasonally, and high - frequency demand indicators have rebounded, but it is still at a low level in the same period in recent years. The downstream industries have not improved, and the demand will weaken at the end of the peak season [3]. - In the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, and steel prices are still under pressure. The relatively positive factor is cost support, and the subsequent trend is expected to continue the weak bottom - searching state [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The steel price of rebar is expected to continue the volatile and stable trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance. Market sentiment is positive, and the strong raw materials provide cost support, but the improvement of the rebar fundamentals is limited under the situation of increasing supply and demand, and the pressure of inventory reduction remains [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the rebar 2601 contract, the short - term (within one week) and medium - term (two weeks to one month) trends are both volatile, and the intraday trend is weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that market sentiment is positive, and the steel market is volatile and stable [1]. Market Driving Logic - Both the supply and demand sides of rebar have increased. The production of construction steel mills has increased, and the weekly output has rebounded with relatively high inventory, increasing the supply pressure. The demand for rebar has continued to improve seasonally, but it is still at a low level in the same period in recent years, and the downstream situation has not improved, so the quality of the peak season is questionable. Under the situation of increasing supply and demand, the improvement of the rebar fundamentals is limited, the pressure of inventory reduction remains, and the steel price is still prone to pressure [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for rebar 2601 is "sideways", and the intraday outlook is "sideways and slightly weak". It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation has not improved, and steel prices will move sideways [1]. - Although rebar demand continues to recover seasonally, supply has also increased. The fundamentals have not improved, and there is significant pressure on inventory reduction. Steel prices are still prone to downward pressure. The relatively positive factors are cost support and production restrictions. It is expected that steel prices will continue to stabilize in a sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to demand performance [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday outlooks are "sideways", "sideways", and "sideways and slightly weak" respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved and steel prices move sideways [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The sentiment in the commodity market has improved, and production restrictions in Tangshan have provided a boost, leading to a strengthening of steel futures prices. Currently, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has not changed significantly. Construction steel mills have increased production, supply has rebounded from a low level, and inventory is relatively high, increasing pressure. Meanwhile, rebar demand has continued to improve, with high - frequency indicators rising, but it remains at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the downstream situation has not improved. The peak - season performance is expected to be lackluster. In summary, although rebar demand has seasonally recovered, supply has also increased, the fundamentals have not improved, and there is significant pressure on inventory reduction. Steel prices are still prone to downward pressure. The relatively positive factors are cost support and production - restriction disturbances. It is expected that steel prices will continue to stabilize in a sideways pattern, and attention should be paid to demand performance [2].