投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 1 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 原料强势带动钢价走高 | 说明： 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 原料强势上涨带动钢价同样走强，相应的螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，建筑钢厂持续复产，螺纹 产量在回升，低供应格局待变，利好效应趋弱。与此同时，螺纹钢需求表现偏弱，高频需求指标继 续位于近年来同期低位，且下游 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price of rebar is expected to continue the oscillatory trend, with the short - term, medium - term trend being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weakly oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line [1]. - The fundamentals of rebar have not improved in the situation of weak supply and demand. The steel price is under pressure, but is supported by low valuation and cost. The subsequent trend depends on the demand performance [2]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is weakly oscillatory. The view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weakly stable and the steel price continues to oscillate [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has warmed up and ferrous metals have rebounded collectively, but the supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. Although rebar production has continued to decline, the inventory level is high and the sustainability is questionable, so the positive effect on the supply side is limited [2]. - Rebar demand is poor, with high - frequency indicators remaining at a low level in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, and demand will seasonally weaken, dragging down the steel price [2]. - The supply of rebar has shrunk to a low level, but demand is weak. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have not improved, and the steel price is under pressure. The relative positives are the low valuation and cost support [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of Rebar 2510 is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and steel prices are running weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Rebar 2510, short - term: weak oscillation; medium - term: oscillation; intraday: weak oscillation. The view is to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, with the core logic of accumulated fundamental contradictions and weak steel price operation. The calculation of price change amplitude is based on the closing price of night trading (for varieties with night trading) or yesterday's closing price (for varieties without night trading) as the starting price and the closing price of the day's daytime session as the ending price. A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% a weak oscillation, a rise of 0 - 1% a strong oscillation, and a rise of more than 1% an increase. Strong/weak oscillation only applies to intraday views [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The fundamentals of rebar are weak. Construction steel mills are actively producing, and supply has continued to rise and is at a high level this year. Demand has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing month - on - month, high - frequency transactions being sluggish, and the seasonal weakening expectation remaining unchanged. Under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamental contradictions of rebar are accumulating, and steel prices will still be under pressure. Coupled with weak market sentiment, steel prices will maintain a weak operation trend. Attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3].