宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 3 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 政策利好兑现，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局延续偏弱运行，短流程钢厂复产带来螺纹钢产量回升，且后续仍有增量空间， 加之库存水平偏高，供应压力有所增加。与此同时，螺纹钢需求开始恢复，高频需求迎来回升，但 依旧位于相对低位，且政策端未超预期，下游行业延续弱稳运行，需求边际改善但增量空间受限。 总 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 3 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 低位震荡 | 宏观扰动不断，钢价震荡企稳 | 说明： 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末海外风险凸显，扰动商品情绪，且螺纹钢供需格局迎变化，建筑钢厂生产趋弱，螺纹钢产 量再度回落，但库存水平偏高，且短流程钢厂将复产，供应端利好效应有限。与此同时，螺纹需求 表现偏弱，高频需求指标环比回升，但依 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 2 月 27 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 低位震荡 | 预期现实博弈，钢价震荡运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端有所变化，建筑钢厂生产趋弱，螺纹钢产量再度回落，但库存水平偏高，且短 流程钢厂陆续复产，供应端利好效应有限。与此同时，螺纹需求表现偏弱，高频需求指标环比回 升，但依旧位于相对低位，且下游复工存在时滞，短期需求延续弱势，易拖累钢价，相对利好的是 重大 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2605 is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line. The core logic is that industrial contradictions are accumulating, and steel prices are seeking a bottom weakly [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar weakened during the holiday. Supply increased from a low level and inventory was high, while demand was weak and the weak pattern will continue in the short term. Steel prices are under pressure, but policy expectations and cost support are relatively positive factors. The subsequent trend will continue the weak bottom - seeking state, and domestic policy situations should be monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term is weak and volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is weak and volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, with the core logic of accumulating industrial contradictions and steel prices seeking a bottom weakly [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - During the holiday, the supply - demand pattern of rebar weakened. Supply increased from a low level and inventory was high, increasing supply pressure. Demand was weak, and high - frequency demand indicators were at a low level in recent years with a time lag in recovery. The weak pattern will continue in the short term, dragging down steel prices. Policy expectations may increase. In the current situation of stable supply and weak demand, industrial contradictions are accumulating, and steel prices are under pressure. Policy expectations and cost support are positive factors, and the subsequent trend will be a weak bottom - seeking state, and domestic policy situations should be focused on [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of rebar 2605 is oscillating and weakening, while the medium - term view is oscillating. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, as the current situation is poor and steel prices are weakly seeking the bottom [2]. - The rebar supply and demand pattern remains weak before the festival. The supply contraction has limited positive effects, and the weak demand pattern is difficult to change in the short term. The rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, with steel prices under pressure. The cost support is a relative positive factor, and the trend is expected to remain in a weak bottom - seeking state. Attention should be paid to the holiday inventory increase [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillating and weakening, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating and weakening. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the real - world situation is poor and steel prices are weakly seeking the bottom [2]. 3.2. Market Driving Logic - Before the festival, the rebar supply and demand pattern is weak. Although steel mills have reduced production and rebar output has declined, it is comparable to the same period last lunar year, and the inventory accumulation expectation is strong, so the positive effect of supply contraction is limited [3]. - The rebar demand is weak, with high - frequency demand indicators at the lowest level in the same lunar period in recent years. The downstream industries are in a continuous slump, and the weak demand pattern is difficult to change in the short term, dragging down steel prices [3]. - Currently, the rebar supply is contracting while the demand is also weakening. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the rebar fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness. The steel prices in the off - season are under pressure, and the cost support is a relative positive factor. The trend is expected to be in a weak bottom - seeking state, and attention should be paid to the holiday inventory increase [3].

Report Summary of Baocheng Futures' Rebar Morning Report (February 11, 2026) 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply and demand pattern of rebar is weak. Although the supply has shrunk due to production cuts by construction steel mills, the high inventory level limits the positive effect. Meanwhile, the demand has also weakened, with high - frequency demand indicators declining and at the lowest level in the same lunar period in recent years. The steel price is under pressure and is expected to maintain an oscillating bottom - seeking trend, with cost support as a relative positive factor. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillating and weakening, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and weakening. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weak supply - demand pattern and the steel price oscillating at a low level [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply of rebar has contracted as construction steel mills have reduced production, with the weekly output of rebar decreasing month - on - month. However, the high inventory level limits the positive impact. The demand for rebar has also weakened, with high - frequency demand indicators dropping and being at the lowest level in the same lunar period in recent years. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged and continues to drag down the steel price. The steel price is under pressure, and the cost support is a positive factor. The steel price is expected to oscillate and seek the bottom, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2605 are all in a state of shock, with the intraday view being slightly weaker, and the overall is in a low - level shock. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, and steel prices continue to fluctuate [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Supply pressure increases as production recovers to a relatively high level, while demand is seasonally weak, remaining at a low level in recent years. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season, but is supported by cost and policy expectations, and will continue to oscillate at a low level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are shock, shock, and shock - slightly weak respectively, with an overall view of low - level shock. The core logic is the game between expectations and reality, causing steel prices to continue to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The positive news in the real estate sector has boosted sentiment, and the night - session price of steel futures has rebounded. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Rebar production has increased to a relatively high level, increasing supply pressure, and attention should be paid to subsequent inventory accumulation. Meanwhile, rebar demand is seasonally weak, with high - frequency demand indicators running weakly and at a low level in recent years. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. Currently, supply is increasing while demand is weak, and the fundamentals are operating weakly. The steel price in the off - season is under pressure, but is supported by cost and policy expectations. The subsequent trend will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3].

Report Summary - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to focus on the support at the MA20 line and the production situation of steel mills. [2][3] Details by Category Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "weak oscillation" respectively. The view is to focus on the support at the MA20 line, with the core logic being the weak supply - demand pattern and low - level oscillation of steel prices. [2] Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, steel spot prices remained stable with weak trading volume. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Construction steel mills' production is stable, and rebar output has slightly declined. However, the profit per ton of the variety is acceptable, so the contraction of supply is difficult to sustain. [3] - Rebar demand has improved, with the weekly apparent demand increasing month - on - month. But the high - frequency daily trading volume is sluggish, and both supply and demand are still at the low level of the same period in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, and demand continues the seasonal weakness, dragging down steel prices. [3] - Currently, although rebar demand has improved, the sustainability is not strong, while the supply is weakly stable. The fundamentals show seasonal weakness, and steel prices in the off - season are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factor is the good commodity sentiment. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2605 are respectively "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a slight upward bias", with an overall view of "low - level oscillation". The core logic is that the current situation is weak, and steel prices are under pressure during the off - season [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, short - term view is oscillation, medium - term view is oscillation, and intraday view is oscillation with a slight upward bias, overall in low - level oscillation. The core logic is the weak real - world situation and off - season pressure on steel prices [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Commodity sentiment is warm, and ferrous metals are oscillating and stabilizing. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. The inventory inflection point has appeared, construction steel mills are resuming production, rebar output is continuously increasing with more potential for growth, weakening the positive effect of low - supply. Meanwhile, rebar demand continues its seasonal weakness, with high - frequency demand indicators at a low level in recent years, and downstream industries not improving, showing obvious off - season characteristics. The weak demand continues to drag down steel prices. Currently, rebar supply is rising while demand remains weak, fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, and the short - term trend will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The raw material prices are rising strongly, driving up the steel prices. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. The production is increasing while the demand is weak, and the overall fundamentals are weakly stable. The rebar prices are expected to continue the oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Mysteel today [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is weakly oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that strong raw materials drive up the steel prices [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Strong raw material price increases lead to higher steel prices. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. Construction steel mills are continuously resuming production, and rebar output is rising, weakening the positive effect of low supply. The rebar demand is weak, and high - frequency demand indicators remain at the low level of the same period in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, and the demand will continue to decline seasonally, dragging down the steel price. Although the strong rise of raw materials boosts the sentiment in the black market and the rebar futures price oscillates upward, the steel price is still prone to pressure in the off - season [3]