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光大证券农林牧渔行业周报:收储提振情绪,猪价跌势趋缓-20250615
EBSCN· 2025-06-15 14:13
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [4]. Core Insights - The recent decline in pig prices has led to increased resistance from the breeding sector, with large producers gradually easing their selling pace. However, high temperatures have weakened terminal demand, resulting in low slaughter volumes and insufficient consumer support [1][22]. - The corn and soybean meal prices have risen, while wheat prices have decreased. The corn market is buoyed by a decrease in circulation due to the wheat harvest, and soybean supply remains ample due to favorable weather conditions in major production areas [2][44]. - The natural rubber price has increased, supported by tightening supply due to weather impacts on production and recovering demand from tire manufacturers [62]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector outperformed the market, with the sector index rising by 1.62% compared to a 0.25% decline in the Shanghai Composite Index [13]. - The sub-sectors showed varied performance, with livestock farming and animal health sectors increasing by 3.92% and 1.13%, respectively, while planting and feed sectors experienced declines [13][18]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The average price of live pigs was reported at 14.02 yuan/kg, down 0.21% week-on-week, while the average price of piglets fell by 4.69% to 32.89 yuan/kg [21][22]. - The average weight of slaughtered pigs decreased to 128.82 kg, and the national frozen meat inventory rate increased to 13.89% [22]. - White feather broiler prices dropped to 7.27 yuan/kg, and chick prices fell to 2.74 yuan each, reflecting a weak market for poultry [31][21]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For the pig farming sector, the report suggests that the industry capacity cycle has bottomed out, and with ongoing policy support for inventory reduction, a long-term profit uptrend is expected post-inventory clearance. Recommended stocks include Juxing Agriculture, Shennong Group, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff [3][71]. - The report also highlights opportunities in the planting chain due to the upward trend in grain prices, recommending stocks like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3][71]. - In the pet food sector, the report notes ongoing growth and price increase logic, recommending companies such as Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co [3][71].
光大证券农林牧渔行业周报:政策驱动去库降重,猪价短期压力显现-20250608
EBSCN· 2025-06-08 10:42
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months compared to the market benchmark index [5][76]. Core Insights - The report highlights a short-term pressure on pig prices due to weak demand and increased supply, driven by policy measures aimed at reducing inventory and weight in the industry [1][4][23]. - The report suggests that the industry has reached a capacity cycle bottom, and after the inventory reduction phase, a long-term profit uptrend is expected [4][73]. - The agricultural sector is experiencing mixed price movements, with corn prices rising while soybean meal and wheat prices are declining [2][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The agricultural, forestry, and fishery sector underperformed the market, with the sector index rising by 0.91% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 1.13% increase [14]. - The report notes a decline in pig prices, with the average price at 14.05 yuan/kg, down 2.90% week-on-week [22][23]. 2. Key Data Tracking - The average weight of pigs at slaughter was reported at 129.17 kg, with a slight decrease of 0.01% week-on-week [22][23]. - The average price of white feather broiler chickens was 7.32 yuan/kg, down 0.68% week-on-week, while chick prices fell to 2.84 yuan/chick, down 1.05% [33][48]. 3. Investment Recommendations - For the pig farming sector, companies such as Juxing Agriculture, Shennong Group, Muyuan Foods, and Wens Foodstuff are recommended for investment [4][73]. - The report also suggests focusing on companies in the feed and animal health sectors, such as Haida Group and Ruipu Biological, as their performance is expected to improve [4][73]. - In the planting chain, companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang are highlighted as having significant investment opportunities due to the upward trend in grain prices [4][73]. 4. Commodity Prices - Corn prices increased to 2387.84 yuan/ton, up 0.34% week-on-week, while soybean meal and wheat prices decreased by 1.50% and 0.86%, respectively [2][48]. - The report notes a decline in natural rubber prices, with futures at 13695 yuan/ton, down 1.05% week-on-week, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [3][63].