2026年1月9日，财政部税政司官网发布《关于调整光伏等产品出口退税政策的公告》，宣告自2026年4月1日起，取 消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。根据清单，具体涉及产品达249种，从六氟磷酸锂、球化石墨等原材料，到电池组 件一应俱全。 这意味着，这些光伏组件龙头企业，虽然正面临着激烈的竞争，但均还有着一定的资金安全垫，以支撑其熬过内 卷。当然，不同企业在债务结构、存货管理、股权融资空间等方面，还是有着不小的差异。 资产负债率均高企，晶澳、天合短期借款偏多 光伏组件是典型的重资产行业，业内企业资产负债率普遍较高。 2025年3季度末，晶科能源、晶澳科技、天合光能、通威股份资产负债率均超过70%，晶澳科技、天合光能更是接 近78%。隆基绿能相对偏低，但亦有62.43%。 | 2025年 三季度 | 资产负债率 | 货币资金 | 现金及现金 等价物余额 | 短期借款 | 一年内到期 非流动负债 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昌科能源 | 74. 48% | 275. 91 亿元 | 221. 8 亿元 | 20.65亿元 | 87.33亿元 | | 降基绿能 | 6 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Buy" for specific companies within the steel sector, indicating a strong potential for returns exceeding 15% relative to market benchmarks [3][12]. Core Insights - The introduction of export license management for certain steel products is expected to optimize the export structure, encouraging companies to shift towards high-value products and enhancing domestic profitability [8]. - The domestic steel demand is declining due to the downturn in the real estate sector, with crude steel apparent consumption expected to decrease by 4.4% in 2024, while net exports are projected to rise by over 30% [8]. - The anticipated stabilization of steel profitability is supported by a balance in supply and demand, alongside a downward trend in costs, suggesting a shift towards high-quality and high-return development in the industry [8]. Summary by Sections Steel Sector Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - Nanjing Steel (600282, Buy) for its strong pricing power and stable profitability - CITIC Special Steel (000708, Buy) for its continuous optimization of product structure - Shandong Steel (600022, Buy) for its significant profit improvement driven by operational synergies and cost reduction [3]. - Other companies mentioned include: - Hualing Steel (000932, Not Rated) - Sansteel Minguang (002110, Not Rated) [3]. Export License Management Impact - The implementation of export licenses for 300 steel products, including pig iron and steel plates, marks a new phase in domestic steel export management, aiming to guide companies towards higher-value exports [8]. - The management is expected to alleviate the pressure of overcapacity in the domestic market by regulating low-end product exports [8]. Market Dynamics and Profitability Outlook - The first shipment of high-grade iron ore from the Simandou project indicates a potential decrease in iron ore prices, which could positively impact steel profitability [8]. - The expectation of improved dividend capabilities for companies as capital expenditures for environmental upgrades peak and decline [8].